by Shigeki Hakamada (AJISS-Commentary No.137)
- PM Putin prepares for the second presidency
A good six months before the actual presidential election, it was virtually
certain that Vladimir Putin would return to the presidency. Such is the strange
"democracy" of Russia. The announcement was followed by Putin's call to create a
Eurasian Union. The plan, unveiled in a newspaper article on October 4, is to
achieve EU-style economic integration based on Russia's customs union with
Kazakhstan and Belarus that would eventually encompass the whole Commonwealth of
Independent States (CIS).
One needs to note, however, that Russia is currently experiencing conflict,
mistrust, or friction in its relations with Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and
Moldova. Georgia withdrew from the CIS after fighting a war against Russia.
Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have been taking independent stances from Russia.
Putin's recent remarks, which suggested his intention to annex South Ossetia and
establish a Soviet-style alliance with Belarus, provoked a local backlash. Given
the current state of affairs, Putin's plan for the Eurasian Union should be
taken more as a reflection of his political ambition to reestablish Russia's
leadership in the former Soviet Union region than as a realistic economic
objective. It is also an expression of his wish to revive the Russian-led CIS as
a potential rival to the EU and China. That is why Russia's move is being
criticized as imperialistic within and outside the country.
Under the tandem government of Putin as prime minister and Dmitry Medvedev as
president, Russia's military spending has been boosted despite growing budget
deficits. Eyed as the most promising Russian leader after Putin and Medvedev,
Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin was asked to resign by Medvedev in September
after criticizing the expanding military spending, a fact later acknowledged by
Putin. Such was Russia's resolve to continue to build up its military strength.
How will all this affect Putin's policy towards Asia, particularly Japan and the
rest of the Far East? The most pressing issues facing Russia's Asia policy are
the following: 1) restoring Russia's political, economic and military presence
in the Asia-Pacific region lost after the collapse the Soviet Union; 2) building
cooperative relations with an economically and militarily rising China while
hedging against future threats; and 3) making effective use of a "US card" to
play against China's military build-up and aggressive maritime moves, while
countering the deployment of US missile defense systems. Stemming from these
strategic calculations is a cautious view within Russia about America's
declining presence in the Asia-Pacific region.
A notable thing about Russia's recent foreign policy is Medvedev's effort to
improve economic and military relations with North Korea. Through a trilateral
project to construct a gas pipeline that would pass through North Korea to South
Korea, Russia is determined to reinforce its presence on the Korean Peninsula
and in East Asia on the back of energy resources. The project also serves
Russia's efforts to manipulate China, with which talks on gas prices are
stalled. However, whether the project will come to fruition remains to be seen,
given that it entails similar risks exposed in the Russia-Ukraine gas disputes.
North Korea for its part is counting on the Russian-led project to reduce its
dependence on China - thus the project is a way for North Korea to manipulate
China as well.
Putin tried to redress the balance against China by emphasizing the progress
made in bilateral political and economic cooperation when he visited Beijing on
October 11 and 12. It was his way of using the "China card" against the West.
However, Russia does not conceal its vigilance against China, as was
demonstrated by the announcement several days prior to Putin's visit to Beijing
of the arrest of a Chinese spy. Russia's military build-up in Asia is of course
targeted at the US, but it has been increasingly taking on a counter-China
aspect in recent years. If China continues its expansionism and military
build-up, there will come a time when Japan and the US seriously consider making
use of the "Russia card."
As for relations with Japan, Medvedev has taken a hardline stance on the
Northern Territories despite his reputation as being on the liberal side. The
Japanese government was baffled when its optimistic expectations were betrayed.
In an effort to erase his negative image as a "weak leader," Medvedev sometimes
resorts to tough measures to court the Silovik (politicians from the security or
military services). This has given rise to an optimistic view within Japan that
the dispute over the Northern Territories will develop to Japan's advantage when
Medvedev is replaced by Putin. This is nonsense. We should not forget that it
was Putin who altogether rejected traditional peace treaty negotiations in 2005
by stating that the Southern Kuril Islands had become Russian territories as a
result of World War II and that this was recognized under international law. We
should not rush in dealing with issues pertaining to national sovereignty: we
need to be prepared to fight a long battle.
At the same time, I would like to add that it is highly likely that Putin
will choose to visit Japan soon after the presidential election next spring in
order to turn around soured Japanese public opinion for the sake of advancing
bilateral economic cooperation.
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AJISS-Commentary is an occasional op-ed type publication of The Association of
Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies (AJISS) consisting of three leading
Japanese think tanks: Institute for International Policy Studies (IIPS), The
Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA), and Research Institute for
Peace and Security (RIPS).
[Shigeki Hakamada is Professor of Russian Studies at Aoyama Gakuin University.
The views expressed in this piece are the author's own and should not be
attributed to The Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies.]
http://www.jiia.or.jp/en_commentary/201111/22-1.html
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