HDFF Bi-weekly Thailand Newsletter October 3 – 17, 2024

on October 17, 2024

By Research Fellows Inès Boufaden, Alva Lange, and Nicholas Jones

This is recent edition of HDFF’s bi-weekly newsletter on the latest security, political, and economic issues in Thailand. The purpose of this newsletter is to inform international workers based in Thailand, and those working with Thai partners, on the relevant issues that may have an impact on their operations.

Security

These past few weeks have been marked by huge floods in the northern part of the country. The city of Chiang Mai has been particularly affected by the floods, and the situation there worsens every day. Floods are a recurring issue during Thailand’s rainy season, however, 2024 saw extraordinarily high levels, with flooding reaching parts of the capital city, Bangkok. With more than “10.000 million cubic meters of water”[i], these floods have major consequences, such as electricity outages, people trapped within their homes, limited access to basic needs, and large amounts of garbage and tree branches being washed downstream. Additionally, the Thai-Myanmar (between Mae Sai and Tachileik) checkpoint was closed, which impacted the flow of goods and people.

Road safety is a consistent challenge in Thailand. In early October, twenty students and three teachers died in a bus fire accident. Preliminary investigation found that the reason the fire was caused by excess weight, from illegally installed extra tanks. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has requested the strengthening of transportation safety regulations regarding passenger boats, chartered buses, vans, and other vehicles.

Cybersecurity has become a prevalent issue in today’s digital world. The Global Cybersecurity Index ranks countries according to their commitment to cybersecurity. The 2024 edition ranked Thailand – previously in 44th place- in 7th place, making it a “Tier 1” country, or a “role model” in global cyber security practices [ii]. Thailand received perfect scores in four pillars – namely legal, technical, capacity development, and cooperation measures – and a 19.22 out of 20 for the last category – organizational measures. Thailand’s stated cybersecurity goal is to boost the country’s digital competitiveness, enhance safety and security, and develop human capital, which aligns with Thailand’s Digital Government Development Plan.

Politics

Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 38, was elected as Thailand’s 31st, and also youngest prime minister on August 16, 2024. She became the third member of the Shinawatra family to hold the position after her father, Thaksin, and her aunt, Yingluck. Al Jazeera reports [iii] that in August the Constitutional Court ordered the dissolution of the opposition Move Forward Party and banned leader Pita Limjaroenrat from politics for 10 years.

Thailand has taken a significant step forward by signing a Marriage Equality Bill into law, making it the first country in Southeast Asia and the third in Asia, after Taiwan and Nepal, to allow same-sex marriage. This legislation also grants adoption and inheritance rights to same-sex couples, and changes legal language by replacing “men and women” and “husband and wife” to “individuals” and “marriage partners” [iv]. It represents a historic achievment for activists who have fought for these rights for over two decades. The legislation is effective from January 22, 2025. To commemorate the day, Ann Chumaporn, a long-time LGBTQ+ activist and the organizer of Bangkok Pride, plans to organize a mass wedding for more than 1,000 couples.

Thailand has long stood out in the region for its laws prohibiting discrimination based on gender identity and sexual orientation, positioning it as one of Asia’s most LGBTQ+ friendly nations. Professor and international human rights expert Mr. Vitit Muntarbhorn highlights the need for further improvements to laws such as the Surrogacy Bill and the Gender Recognition Bill to ensure comprehensive protections for LGBTQ+ communities in Thailand [v].

Economics

On September 23, the Baht reached a 19-month high of 32.93THB to 1 USD. Experts at the Thai Chamber of Commerce expect appreciation to continue until the first quarter of 2025. This is expected to cause losses for exporting firms and the tourism industry [vi].

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) is currently seeking a new chairperson. The government is pushing for a nominee who will implement cuts in policy interest rates, while the central bank hopes to maintain monetary policy stability to allow the Finance Ministry to implement appropriate fiscal policy. Proponents of interest rate cuts believe that the BOT should lessen the widening interest rate gap between Thailand and other major economies to curb appreciation and ease the pressure felt by exporters and the tourism industry [vii].

The current government is looking to begin negotiations with Cambodia over an offshore oil and gas field in the northwestern part of the Gulf of Thailand that has approximately US $300 billion worth of reserves. Both countries maintain disputed territorial claims in this region of the gulf, and no common boundaries have been established. Extracting oil from this field could increase Thailand’s reserves by 20 years, contain electricity prices, and help meet growing electricity demand [viii].

On October 7, the Thai Commerce Minister, Pichai Naripthaphan attended the ASEAN Economic Community Council Ministers meeting in Laos. The main topic was ASEAN’s goals and challenges amid the global economic slowdown. The economic ministers developed a 3-pronged approach to strengthen ASEAN resilience, focused on regional collaboration in future-oriented industries, boosting intra-regional trade to mitigate risks from global shocks, and exploring trade potential with strategic and emerging economies [ix].

Citations

[i] https://www.iied.org/thailands-floods-complex-political-geographical-factors-behind-crisis