On April 1st 2025, the “HOT SEAT_QUO VADIS MYANMAR?” was organized by Human Development Forum Foundation (HDFF) and held at Four Points by Sheraton, Bangkok. 

Speaker : Anthony Davis, Bangkok-based Security analyst and Consultant 

Anthony Davis’s analysis, “Quo Vadis Myanmar?” offered a stark examination of the profound instability gripping the country since the 2021 coup. He meticulously unpacked the ruling SAC’s deep-seated difficulties across political, economic, and military spheres, while also illuminating the intricate dynamics and uncertain trajectory of the diverse resistance movements. Ultimately, Davis forecasted a troubling future marked by protracted conflict and escalating human suffering.  

The SAC Regime: A System in Deep Crisis

Anthony Davis presented a detailed assessment of the State Administration Council (SAC), highlighting the regime’s profound difficulties across political, economic, and military domains. Politically, the SAC’s miscalculation in attempting to replicate the 2014 Thai coup playbook had led to significant instability. Their “Plan A,” centered on elections they initially promised following their February 1st, 2021 coup, lacked a viable contingency, leaving the regime vulnerable. Economically, Myanmar faces a catastrophic situation, with 3.5 million displaced individuals and nearly half the population (49.7%) living in poverty. Approximately 20 million people require humanitarian aid, indicating a potential descent into a failed state scenario. Militarily, the Tatmadaw, the Myanmar military, functions as a “social caste,” deeply entrenched in all societal aspects, and predominantly Bama chauvinist. The military’s combat capability had decreased from approximately 130,000 troops at the coup’s onset to an estimated 110,000 to 120,000, due to battlefield losses and desertions. The military is “woefully overstretched,” struggling to contain insurgencies in both the borderlands and the heartland revolt at the same time. Consequently, they rely heavily on air power and drones. The regime’s conscription efforts, aiming for 5,000 recruits per month, had yielded approximately 45,000 to 50,000 troops. However, the long-term efficacy and morale of these conscripts remained uncertain. Davis raised concerns about the SAC’s capacity to maintain the intake of 5,000 per month, and the level of motivation the conscripts would show once deployed. Davis suggests that the SAC hoped that conscription would allow them to utilize divide and rule tactics.

Key Unknowns: What We Don’t Know

Anthony Davis underscored the opposition’s fragmented nature, characterized by the lack of a unified revolutionary party, a charismatic leader, and external support. The National Unity Government (NUG) struggled to consolidate the People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) and ethnic armed organizations. However, ethnic armies in the borderlands, with their experience and weaponry, saw this period as a crucial opportunity. The resistance in the heartland, driven by youth, demonstrated unwavering determination and widespread presence. Crucially, a significant unknown lies in the strategic decisions of the Arakan Army (AA). With an estimated 30,000 to 40,000 troops, it is the largest ethnic armed force, possessing military strength and strategic geographic advantages. The AA’s leader, Twan Mrat Naing, holds significant autonomy, allowing for independent strategic decisions. The pivotal question remains: will the AA choose to complete the “liberation” of Rakhine State, or will they infiltrate the Irrawaddy Valley and Delta? This choice would significantly impact the conflict. A push into the heartland, for example, could cripple the regime by disrupting its military industrial production and threatening key agricultural regions. Therefore, Davis emphasized that the decisions made by the AA in the coming weeks will be decisive, and remain a key unknown factor.

The Earthquake: Limited Impact and the Regime’s Strategy

Anthony Davis argued that the recent earthquake would likely not change the overall situation in Myanmar. He based this on the scale of destruction. While the death toll was significant, it was less than previous disasters like Cyclone Nargis. He contrasted this with the 2004 tsunami, which did change regional events. Davis observed that the SAC regime, led by Min Aung Hlaing, was using the earthquake to improve its international legitimacy. Min Aung Hlaing’s request for international aid was seen as a way to engage with other countries. The regime was directing aid through airports and showing Min Aung Hlaing in relief efforts to improve its image. However, the regime’s military actions had not changed. Airstrikes continue, showing no pause in fighting. The military’s absence in rescue efforts indicated their focus on combat. The NUG’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire was questioned due to their limited control over other groups. Davis expected fighting to resume after two weeks. He also noted the earthquake was likely viewed as a bad sign by the population and military.

“Crystal ballgazing” on Myanmar’s future

Anthony Davis presented two pessimistic future scenarios for Myanmar. The “least bad” option involved ethnic forces uniting to pressure the regime into military-centric negotiations. However, Davis believes a prolonged, brutal conflict is more likely. This was due to the regime’s refusal to engage with Bama-dominated groups. Such a conflict would lead to severe humanitarian crises and increased organized crime. Davis highlighted the military’s resolve and the resistance’s lack of heavy weapons. Without these, the resistance struggles to force a resolution. He warned this could create a crisis worse than Somalia. Ultimately, Davis’s “crystal ballgazing” painted a bleak picture of prolonged instability and suffering for Myanmar.

Speaker Biography: Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis is a Bangkok-based security analyst and consultant with extensive field experience in armed conflicts across Asia. He writes primarily for Jane’s security and defence titles, contributes to Asia Times and Nikkei Asian Review, and provides expert commentary for international media. He holds a postgraduate diploma in Modern Chinese History and Revolutionary Warfare from Nanjing University, China.

His work covers terrorism, insurgency, weapons proliferation, narcotics trafficking, and transnational crime, with publications in Jane’s Terrorism & Security Monitor, Jane’s Intelligence Review, and Jane’s Defence Weekly. He has worked extensively in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Myanmar, Thailand, the Philippines, and China. 

Davis has also presented on security issues for IHS-Jane’s, advising government agencies and academic institutions in the U.S., Australia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Brunei.

Further Reading 

https://asiatimes.com/2025/03/arakan-army-holds-the-key-to-breaking-myanmars-junta/#