HDFF Weekly Review Thailand
20/6 – 26/6
Summary
With only two weeks before the General Election on July 3rd, varying related events are playing a large role in Thailand’s weekly review. Democrats held their last big rally in Bangkok at the Ratchaprasong Intersection, undisrupted by red shirt supporters, while Thaksin stated that he wants to be back in Thailand at the end of the year. Studies show the economy will be deeply affected by the election results and the new government will play a large role in Thailand’s future success. Issues relating to bilateral relationships with both Cambodia and Burma have affected Thai security. General violence has increased but only in a small amount as a result of the election campaigns. The situation remains under control; however, anticipation has been heightened.
Politics
With not long to go until the election on July 3rd violence increases, with canvassers of Bhumjaithai, Pheu Thai and the Democrats being shot and killed and an grenade which failed to detonate being found near the house of a Bhumjaithai canvasser in Lop Buri. (Bangkok Post)
The controversial Democrat rally at Ratchaprasong Intersection in front of Central World mall meanwhile went uninterrupted after Pheu Thai (PT) leaders urged the red shirts to stay away, arguing that the Democrats would use any disruptions or unrest and blame them and Pheu Thai, which would further contribute to the Democrats labeling the red shirts as terrorists.
The People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) aka “Yellow Shirts” wants the Pheu Thai Party to be dissolved because of its relations to Thaksin Shinawatra claiming that convicted or disqualified politicians are prohibited from participating in politics. Political Analyst Pavin Chachavalpongpun from the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore argues that this strategy could possibly backfire, commenting on PAD that “They are living in fear of Puea Thai winning and need to do something. They’ve come up with these different attacks but I believe rather than discredit Puea Thai, it could actually win them more votes.” (Reuters)
Ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra told the German Spiegel he wants to come back to Thailand at the End of the year to attend his daughter’s wedding in December. (Spiegel) Thereby he further fueled the Democrats argument claiming that Pheu Thai would create an amnesty law for the former Prime Minister if they lead the next government. PT meanwhile released a statement that they would not pursue an amnesty law for people accused of politically related crimes but likely for “victims of injustice”, which would include the Ratchadapisek land case, for which Thaksin was sentenced to two years in prison. (Bangkok Post June 18)
Although PT is leading in all published polls acquiring the undecided vote will be critical to winning as 30%, or 10 Million, of voters claim to be still undecided according to the latest Abac Poll. (The Nation)
Economics
According to the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDBI), it’s time for voters to consider how the parties campaigning for the July 3 election intend to finance all the promises they’ve been making. A recent survey of 73 leading economists found that the Democrat Party’s economic policies were generally more feasible than the Pheu Thai Party’s policies. Among the nine selected policies, the Democrats had seven that are viable, while only five policies of Pheu Thai in the same group were considered practical, according to the pollsters at the Research Institute of Bangkok University.
The seven policies of the Democrat Party seen as being feasible were the following:
1. A minimum wage increase of at least 25 per cent in two years
2. Increase farmers’ profits by 25 per cent under the income insurance scheme for farmers
3. Curbing the problem of the informal and non-bank debts
4. Using a single identification card to receive health care services under the government’s universal health care scheme
5. Turn tambon Laem Chabang in Si Racha district of Chon Buri into a “harbour city” with a high speed train link to Bangkok and Rayong.
6. Build a 166-kilometre electric rail link connecting Bangkok with Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani and Samut Prakan within five years
7. Increase the amount of loans in the program providing soft loans for 250,000 students
The five viable policies of Pheu Thai were:
1. The rice mortgage program guaranteeing between 15,000 and 20,000 baht per 2,000 liters.
2. To suspend debt repayments for individuals for up to 3 years
3. To “bring back” the 30 baht health care scheme
4. To provide free wi-fi access in public places
5. To base students’ government loan repayments on their current incomes
The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) urged voters to consider whether the policies of various political parties can actually be implemented.
Additionally, ARIP General Manager Pathom Intarodom of the Information Technology business voiced his confidence that the Thai capital market will be able to improve, especially the Thai stock market reform; the new government will continue the process regardless of which party wins the mandate of the people to run the country. He said the strength of the Thai economy hinges on agriculture and foods, thanks to the nation’s rich resources in addition to its tourism attractions; therefore, Thailand will prosper further if the new government can manage these resources very well and generate more income.
Security
The three men arrested for alleged spying on the Thai-Cambodian border have raised several problems for Thai security. The men have been identified as Suchart Muhammad, a 32-year-old Thai Muslim, Ung Kimtai, 43, a Cambodian citizen and Nguyen Teng Dang, 37, a Vietnamese citizen. The acknowledged leader of the three men, Wichai or Ya Pao, 48 year old Cambodian man has fled the country and a warrant has been issued for his arrest. The suspects have admitted to drawing a map of sensitive military areas they were found carrying. The 2nd Army worked to make changes in the local military installations and issued statements pertaining to being more attentive while patrolling the border. (Bangkok Post, 18 June 2011)
Internal Security Operations Command (Isoc) spokesman has announced Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha, will no longer give media interviews during before the elections. These efforts will ideally remove the army as a political tool in the election and to discourage contention between political parties. The army chief maintains that his previous speech was not a direct commentary and was simply suggesting the public vote for “good people”. (Bangkok Post, Thursday 16 June 2011). 370 Thai MP Candidates are now seeking police protection. A vote canvasser from the Bhum Jai Thai party was shot at five times and killed on Friday June 17th along with wounding his wife and a campaign aide. The police put 2,000 soldiers on standby as a result. (Today, 18 June 2011)
Burmese refugees have been in the news this week as 52 illegal Burmese workers were found being held for ransom by 4 Thai nationals and 2 Burmese nationals in Suphanburi. When raiding the site, the police seized 531,669 baht in cash, two pickup trucks, mobile phones and documents from the gang. The Thai National Security Council (NSC) has also recently reiterated that Burmese refugees living on the western border, for two decades, need to be sent home. (The Nation, 22 June 2011)
Violence in the south continues. Four soldiers were killed in a crowded market in Pattani province by Muslim militants on Friday June 17th. The suspected shooters escaped and stole a pick-up truck with M-16 rifles from the soldiers (Reuters, 17 Friday 2011). In separate attacks, 2 men have been killed– including a traffic policeman and one wounded in Pattani. A local leader / canvasser for the Democrat Party was killed in Yala this week as well. Almost all victims were shot as close range and robbed (Bangkok Post).
HDFF Weekly Review Thailand
20/6 – 26/6
Summary
With only two weeks before the General Election on July 3rd, varying related events are playing a large role in Thailand’s weekly review. Democrats held their last big rally in Bangkok at the Ratchaprasong Intersection, undisrupted by red shirt supporters, while Thaksin stated that he wants to be back in Thailand at the end of the year. Studies show the economy will be deeply affected by the election results and the new government will play a large role in Thailand’s future success. Issues relating to bilateral relationships with both Cambodia and Burma have affected Thai security. General violence has increased but only in a small amount as a result of the election campaigns. The situation remains under control; however, anticipation has been heightened.
Politics
With not long to go until the election on July 3rd violence increases, with canvassers of Bhumjaithai, Pheu Thai and the Democrats being shot and killed and an grenade which failed to detonate being found near the house of a Bhumjaithai canvasser in Lop Buri. (Bangkok Post)
The controversial Democrat rally at Ratchaprasong Intersection in front of Central World mall meanwhile went uninterrupted after Pheu Thai (PT) leaders urged the red shirts to stay away, arguing that the Democrats would use any disruptions or unrest and blame them and Pheu Thai, which would further contribute to the Democrats labeling the red shirts as terrorists.
The People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) aka “Yellow Shirts” wants the Pheu Thai Party to be dissolved because of its relations to Thaksin Shinawatra claiming that convicted or disqualified politicians are prohibited from participating in politics. Political Analyst Pavin Chachavalpongpun from the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore argues that this strategy could possibly backfire, commenting on PAD that “They are living in fear of Puea Thai winning and need to do something. They’ve come up with these different attacks but I believe rather than discredit Puea Thai, it could actually win them more votes.” (Reuters)
Ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra told the German Spiegel he wants to come back to Thailand at the End of the year to attend his daughter’s wedding in December. (Spiegel) Thereby he further fueled the Democrats argument claiming that Pheu Thai would create an amnesty law for the former Prime Minister if they lead the next government. PT meanwhile released a statement that they would not pursue an amnesty law for people accused of politically related crimes but likely for “victims of injustice”, which would include the Ratchadapisek land case, for which Thaksin was sentenced to two years in prison. (Bangkok Post June 18)
Although PT is leading in all published polls acquiring the undecided vote will be critical to winning as 30%, or 10 Million, of voters claim to be still undecided according to the latest Abac Poll. (The Nation)
Economics
According to the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDBI), it’s time for voters to consider how the parties campaigning for the July 3 election intend to finance all the promises they’ve been making. A recent survey of 73 leading economists found that the Democrat Party’s economic policies were generally more feasible than the Pheu Thai Party’s policies. Among the nine selected policies, the Democrats had seven that are viable, while only five policies of Pheu Thai in the same group were considered practical, according to the pollsters at the Research Institute of Bangkok University.
The seven policies of the Democrat Party seen as being feasible were the following:
1. A minimum wage increase of at least 25 per cent in two years
2. Increase farmers’ profits by 25 per cent under the income insurance scheme for farmers
3. Curbing the problem of the informal and non-bank debts
4. Using a single identification card to receive health care services under the government’s universal health care scheme
5. Turn tambon Laem Chabang in Si Racha district of Chon Buri into a “harbour city” with a high speed train link to Bangkok and Rayong.
6. Build a 166-kilometre electric rail link connecting Bangkok with Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani and Samut Prakan within five years
7. Increase the amount of loans in the program providing soft loans for 250,000 students
The five viable policies of Pheu Thai were:
1. The rice mortgage program guaranteeing between 15,000 and 20,000 baht per 2,000 liters.
2. To suspend debt repayments for individuals for up to 3 years
3. To “bring back” the 30 baht health care scheme
4. To provide free wi-fi access in public places
5. To base students’ government loan repayments on their current incomes
The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) urged voters to consider whether the policies of various political parties can actually be implemented.
Additionally, ARIP General Manager Pathom Intarodom of the Information Technology business voiced his confidence that the Thai capital market will be able to improve, especially the Thai stock market reform; the new government will continue the process regardless of which party wins the mandate of the people to run the country. He said the strength of the Thai economy hinges on agriculture and foods, thanks to the nation’s rich resources in addition to its tourism attractions; therefore, Thailand will prosper further if the new government can manage these resources very well and generate more income.
Security
The three men arrested for alleged spying on the Thai-Cambodian border have raised several problems for Thai security. The men have been identified as Suchart Muhammad, a 32-year-old Thai Muslim, Ung Kimtai, 43, a Cambodian citizen and Nguyen Teng Dang, 37, a Vietnamese citizen. The acknowledged leader of the three men, Wichai or Ya Pao, 48 year old Cambodian man has fled the country and a warrant has been issued for his arrest. The suspects have admitted to drawing a map of sensitive military areas they were found carrying. The 2nd Army worked to make changes in the local military installations and issued statements pertaining to being more attentive while patrolling the border. (Bangkok Post, 18 June 2011)
Internal Security Operations Command (Isoc) spokesman has announced Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha, will no longer give media interviews during before the elections. These efforts will ideally remove the army as a political tool in the election and to discourage contention between political parties. The army chief maintains that his previous speech was not a direct commentary and was simply suggesting the public vote for “good people”. (Bangkok Post, Thursday 16 June 2011). 370 Thai MP Candidates are now seeking police protection. A vote canvasser from the Bhum Jai Thai party was shot at five times and killed on Friday June 17th along with wounding his wife and a campaign aide. The police put 2,000 soldiers on standby as a result. (Today, 18 June 2011)
Burmese refugees have been in the news this week as 52 illegal Burmese workers were found being held for ransom by 4 Thai nationals and 2 Burmese nationals in Suphanburi. When raiding the site, the police seized 531,669 baht in cash, two pickup trucks, mobile phones and documents from the gang. The Thai National Security Council (NSC) has also recently reiterated that Burmese refugees living on the western border, for two decades, need to be sent home. (The Nation, 22 June 2011)
Violence in the south continues. Four soldiers were killed in a crowded market in Pattani province by Muslim militants on Friday June 17th. The suspected shooters escaped and stole a pick-up truck with M-16 rifles from the soldiers (Reuters, 17 Friday 2011). In separate attacks, 2 men have been killed– including a traffic policeman and one wounded in Pattani. A local leader / canvasser for the Democrat Party was killed in Yala this week as well. Almost all victims were shot as close range and robbed (Bangkok Post).
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