Summary
Flooding continues to be substantially destructive and preventive measures are only being implemented in certain areas of the country. PM Yingluck Shinawatra had a successful meeting with Cambodian PM Hun Sen, discussing future cooperation, including the Preah Vihear temple area and the release of imprisoned Thai nationals. The return of Thaksin proves to be more and more imminent with several legal actions being employed to insure his return. Despite the economic slump, the proposed new policies remain on schedule to be put into operation, while the government and economic minister look for national and international support, specifically focusing on trade agreements. The government’s cooperation with the Bank of Thailand remains unsteady and the BoT’s future actions will dramatically impact the two sectors working relationship. Action to relieve violence in the South is critical after a major bombing occurred this week, one of the largest since 2004. Cultural sensitivity and recognition of the Muslim Malay history remains excluded from government solutions. ASEAN relationships are highlighted and the Thai and Burmese military are working together to build a relationship while Burma continues to work towards increasing democratic efforts.
Politics
According to the Department of Water Resources’ records, the amount of rainfall in recent months is the most in Thailand in the last 30 years. Flooding remained in the headlines this week with the death toll climbing to over 110 in addition to 1.9 million people in 7,688 villages affected. Although Northern Thailand has been hit with heavy monsoon rains for the last few months, Bangkok has been spared from the overflow due to authorities blocking flood waters via its water gates. Farmers and district chiefs in Bangkok’s surrounding areas complained that opening at least one water gate in their districts could have helped to avoid flooding on their land as well. The economic damage to Thailand’s agricultural sector is estimated to reach 20 billion baht, according to the Kasikorn Research Centre, as a result of the damage to the country’s rice harvesting areas, such as Suphan Buri, Ayutthaya, Chai Nat, Pathum Thani and Nakhon Sawan. Additionally, farmers were forced to harvest rice prematurely leading to lower prices for the crops. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra announced on her facebook page that households flooded for more than seven days will receive a 5,000 naht relief payment. (Channel6newsonline) (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
After PM Yingluck’s visit to Cambodia, Yingluck and Cambodian PM Hun Sen have further agreed to resume negotiating a joint development plan for gas and oil exploration in disputed maritime areas in the Gulf of Thailand. In relation to the overlapping Preah Vihear temple claims, a redeployment of troops was agreed upon, replacing soldiers with police to establish peace on the condition of Indonesian observers being present. Additionally, cooperation on trade and tourism were discussed in the closed door meeting between the two Prime Ministers. Conflicting statements were released by PM Hun Sen and Cambodian Foreign Minister Hor Namhong in relation to a possible release of Veera Somkwamkid and Ratree Pipatanapaiboon, two Thai nationals and yellow shirt supporters imprisoned in Cambodia on spying charges. While PM Hun Sen announced there may be a way to release the two Thais early, Hor Namhong stated that the jailed pair could not be released before serving at least two-thirds of their sentence. (Phnom Penh Post) (Bangkok Post)
According to official press releases, no bilateral issues were on the agenda when Thaksin Shinawatra visited Cambodia a day after his sister Yingluck’s visit had ended. The Cambodian government continued to stress that Thaksin’s visit was purely to exchange ideas on economic development. (AsiaOne) (The Nation) Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul has discussed the possibility of returning Thaksin’s Thai passport, including diplomatic privileges. Thaksin’s original passport was revoked by the previous administration led by Abhisit Vejjajiva in April 2009, on claims he incited red shirts to rise up against the government. Surapong has argued that Thaksin deserves his ordinary Thai passport returned because, “a passport is like an identity card. Even prisoners in Thailand still hold their ID card. I would like Thai society to think on this basis.” Additionally he argued the cases against Thaksin were politically motivated, which the global community agreed upon, explaining why Interpol never issued an arrest warrant against Thaksin. To critics, mainly from the Democrat Party who argued it was Surapongs duty to seek Thaksin’s arrest in Cambodia, he stated that his ministry had no authority to do so. Surapong asserted that former PM Abhisit Vejjajiva did not seek the arrest of red-shirt leader Giles Ungpakorn, who was wanted by Thai authorities for lese majeste, during their meeting in London. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
In related news, government officials have voiced support for a legal proposal by the Nitirat Group, to expunge all records and judicial decisions originating from the 2006 coup. To implement the proposal would mean legally acting as if the coup had never happened. This would include investigations made by the Assets Examination Committee and court cases against Thaksin Shinawatra. (The Nation)
Economic
The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index dropped to its lowest level since March after the EU and USA have failed to respond adequately to the regional debt crisis. Despite continuing global problems, the Thai Commerce Ministry maintains that there will be 15% export growth leading to a total of US$224 billion in revenue after 25.7% growth in the first seven months. Targets for next year include 10% growth for Thai exports to Japan, the US, the EU and Africa and 20% for fellow ASEAN members in addition to China, India and South Korea. Mr. Kittiratt asked international trade officials to help introduce technologies to support Thai manufacturing efficiency, focusing on building in Chinese cities such as Nanjing and Shenyang. International concern that baht appreciation could make Thai products too expensive could potentially reduce growth targets.
Economic experts have advised the Bank of Thailand to cut its key interest rate to increase economic growth above 4%.”Now is the best time for low interest rates, since savings are larger than investment, and the country has a current-account surplus,” stated Former finance minister Virabongsa Ramangkura. Virabongsa maintains that inflationary pressure is not a dire issue as major world economies are slowing down, leading to lower oil demand and lower energy prices. He also claimed that the strengthening the baht resulted from lenders exchanging baht debt with US dollar debts while the US is offering lower interest rates.
Kittiratt has responded stating that the government could not ask the central bank to cut its policy interest rate. However, Kittiratt did ask the BoT to wait to raise the repurchase rate in order to curb inflation. Without the delay, the government will have trouble introducing its promised policies. The government hopes businesses will cooperate in response to the reduced income tax to 23% next year and to 20% in 2013, from the current 30%, to help support the funds for increased labor costs. There are also high expectations for the income from the tourist industry. It is expected that the tourism income this year will reach 700 billion baht, up 27% from last year. (Business Week) (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
Critics have advised the Thai government to keep an open mind if the policies fail and to establish a secondary plan ahead of time in order to avoid potential bankruptcy. A specific trade concern relates to Thailand’s recent tightening of freedom of speech on the internet. Sources have stated that monitoring laws and fishing for political content could hurt country’s economic potential and make global expansion difficult. Key investors such as Google Inc., Yahoo Inc. and eBay Inc. have showed signs of wariness.
Trade negotiations are in the process with several nations, including a new partner, Pakistan. Thailand will soon begin free-trade negotiations with Pakistan, engage in its second bilateral pact with a South Asian nation. The Thailand-Pakistan Joint Trade Committee (JTC) is expected to hold its first meeting before the end of the year. Thailand participated in the 21st Thailand-India Trade Negotiating Committee in New Delhi this week, and Thai exporters are expected to have an advantage over their ASEAN competitors with an expectation that bilateral trade will rise to US $13 billion by 2014. Producers of garments, farm goods and electrical appliances were especially favored during the meeting, as the two countries established tax privilege benefits added for another 900 Thai items. Other issued discussed were creative economy, construction, tourism, and the development of small- and medium-sized enterprises. (The Nation) (MCOT)
Security
The violence in the South made international headlines this week as incidents increased tenfold. A triple bomb explosion in Narathiwat province killed 4 people, 3 Malaysians and 1 Thai, and injured 118 people. Two motorcycles and a car were filled 20-30 kilograms of explosives. The government has been put under significant pressure to increase security measures as the attack is claimed to be the worst in the area since the insurgency resurfaced in 2004. The military and police publically disagreed on the motivations behind the attacks. The military maintained the violence was an act of reprisal and distraction toward the recently announced crackdown on drugs and oil smuggling while a police chief stated that local insurgents were increasing attacks to gain attention, specifically targeting international tourists. PM Yingluck Shinawatra held a meeting with Interior Minister Yongyuth Wichaidit and Army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha following the attacks but continued to state that the government would only implement peaceful responses to encourage a resolution. Previous to these attacks, a newly built police station in Narathiwat was bombed, 1 person killed and 3 seriously injured from a shooting at a teashop in Narathiwat and an attack killed 5 rangers in Pattani.
Critics have restated how the response by the government in recent years has only reignited anger, resentment and poor livelihoods. Suggestions include studying and producing solutions based on the history of the conflict that continues to feed Malay-Muslims need to attack the Thai state. More than ever, the Thai government should acknowledge past wrong doings and the legitimacy of the Muslim cause and Malay culture.
The Council of State has ruled to exclude General Panlop Pinmanee from his potential role as Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC) director in the Deep South. Although the exclusion was a result of legal regulations, General Panlop is known for being involved in an incident where 30 plus “rebels” were killed inside the ancient mosque in 2004. Critics have cited General Panlop nomination for ISOC director as irrational and culturally insensitive. (The Nation) (Bangkok Post) (UPI) (VOA News) (Asia News)
ASEAN security continues to take precedence. Thai Army Chief Gen Prayut Chan O Cha met with Burma’s commander-in-chief of armed forces, Gen Min Aung Hlaing, Lt-Gen Hla Htay Win, joint-chief of staff (army, navy, air force), and Lt-Gen Myat Hein, the air force chief along with other military officials in Naypyidaw to discuss military coordination, border stability and anti-drug trafficking solutions. Thailand has reiterated its plans to take grave action towards those who provide support such as arms and food to the armed ethnic groups located on the Thai – Burmese border. Thai authorities arrested two people who were suspected of arms and ammunition trafficking to the Karen National Union (KNU). Also in Burma, parliament chief Khin Aung Myint announced opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi as invited to join the legislative body. Suu Kyi has historically being labeled as an enemy of the government and there have been long term efforts to remove Suu Kyi from the political arena. Hope remains that Burma will become a more open and free nation. (Irrawaddy) (Democratic Voice of Burma)
Analysts have reviewed Yingluck’s clear determination to raise Thailand’s involvement in the ASEAN community. Reasons cited include her desire to create a place for herself in world politics and efforts to separate herself from her brother Thaksin’s past policies. During Thaksin’s administration, he threatened to leave the 2004 ASEAN Summit in Vientiane to avoid answers questions pertaining to Thailand’s domestic problems. Sources have commended Thailand and Indonesia’s efforts to work together, as debatably the two strongest nations in the ASEAN community (Jakarta Post) in addition to what appears will be a wide range of relationships with other ASEAN nations.
Comments are closed