Summary
Flooding is wreaking havoc on Thailand, destroying lives, homes and infrastructure. Despite government efforts, answers to the flood problem seem to remain unbalanced. The Pheu Thai party is hoping to augment the Defense Minister’s authoritative powers, stating that the current assigned responsibilities are not effective while the Democratic Party continues to take legal action against the current government. Thai economics have showed signs of recovery this week, with the SET index, shares and bonds increasing a minute amount. The various actors in Thai finances have continued to disagree as to which further steps should be taken but the in the near future, the Bank of Thailand will be concentrating on diversification, revamping the inflation target and strengthening internal systems. Food security and Thailand’s economic relationship with Burma is analyzed. Various systems are being discussed to reduce violence in the Southern Provinces however, the lack of concrete effective action leaves room for violence to continue and increase. Several ASEAN countries have offered both financial and political assistance but international aid has yet to be accepted. Internet policing for insults against the monarchy are being increased and several human rights problems including corruption, obstruction of aid work and prison abuse remain prominent security issues.
Politics
Flooding reports continued to be the most significant news across Thailand this week. The flood situation worsened in many provinces up North including Chiang Mai as well as in the central province Ayutthaya, where all 16 districts have been declared disaster zones. Industrial estates as well as the 500 year old World Heritage-listed Wat Chai Watthanaram temple have been inundated after overflow from the Chao Phraya River and a section of the floodwall collapsed. On October 6th, the flooding of the Asian Highway (the main highway to the North in Ayutthaya) lead to a 10km traffic jam trapping cars, trucks and buses. Ayutthaya governor Witthaya Piewpong stated that a huge volume of water from the Lop Buri, Pasak and Chao Phraya rivers will raise the water level in the province by at least another 50cm during the next three to seven days. Bangkok, according to predictions, may be hit by run-off water from the north between 16th and 18th of October. Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute director Dr Royol Chitradon commented, “Floods will hit the capital for sure. It’s just a question of where.” Flooding has also affected up to 17,000 monks at 1,588 temples.
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra set up five committees to oversee flood management in areas located in five major river basins. The panels’ initial task is to coordinate the operation of the sluice gates (gates that operates by allowing water to flow under it) to prevent conflicts between residents suffering and those saved from flooding. Deputy Prime Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong estimated the damage cost to Ayutthaya since July at 20-30 billion baht while Public Health Minister and Ayutthaya MP Witthaya Buranasiri estimated the damage to be at least 100 billion baht. The University of Thai Chamber of Commerce approximates the damage to be around 130 billion baht and will reduce Thailand’s economic growth by 1-1.3%. So far 244 people drowned in this years’ flooding. (The Nation) (Bangkok Post) (AsiaOne)
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s personal Twitter account, @PouYingluck, was hacked this week. The hacker posted 7 messages criticizing the government and its policies, for example: “What opportunities do the poor really have? We are deceiving the poor. We are giving them hope to gain their votes so that our [cronies] can benefit.” As a consequence Ms. Yingluck closed her Twitter account and will only be using Facebook until further notice. Two days after the account was hacked, authorities arrested a 22 year old Student named Aekawit Thongdeeworakul, a fourth-year student at Chulalongkorn University. His girlfriend is reported to be close to the yellow-shirt People’s Alliance for Democracy. Investigators at the Information and Communication Technology Ministry confirmed that the personal password to Ms Yingluck’s gmail account had been hacked on Sept 30 by a still unknown group or person. The password was then disseminated within the underground hacker community and later picked up by Mr. Aekawith. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
The Pheu Thai party has announced its aim to amend the Defense Administration Act of 2008 and give the Defense Minister more authority. This change has been inspired by current Defense Minister Yutthasak Sasiprapa’s inquiry to the Council of State regarding his powers in military reshuffle decisions. Currently, the Defense Administration Act passed during the coup-installed administration of General Surayud Chulanont, limits political influence in military reshuffles and reportedly contradicts a Defense Ministry regulation which allows the Defense Minister to appoint heads of the units. General Yutthasak had no say in the latest reshuffle of 584 senior officers and saw his favored applicant for permanent Defense Secretary, General Witthawat Ratchatanan, turned away in lieu of the armed forces chiefs’ choice, General Sathian Phoemthongin. Former Defense Minister Prawit Wongsuwan opposed an amendment to the reshuffle of the military line-up, arguing that only soldiers were in the position to decide who within their ranks should serve in what position. Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva saw no reason for amending the law as the armed forces had cooperated with government policies. Pheu Thai Member of Parliment Pirapan Palusuk argued that, “the defense minister should have a bigger role and should not be just a rubber stamp. I can guarantee you that if the political sector is allowed to be in the Defense Council it would adhere to the principle of righteousness,” and that it would be “an international principle that armed forces must be under the government.” (The Nation) (Bangkok Post)
After trying to impeach Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul in August for helping Thaksin Shinawatra obtain a Japanese Visa, the Democrat Party is now launching impeachment efforts against PM’s Office Minister Krissana Seehalak and Finance Minister Thirachai Phuvanatnaranubala for an assumed interference in the operations of the Mass Communications Organization of Thailand (MCOT). Ms. Krissana wrote to Mr. Thirachai, asking him to stop the MCOT board of directors from proceeding with its resolution to restructure its management and reshuffle its senior executives. The Democrat legal team is now trying to establish a case, arguing for a violation of Section 270 of the Constitution, which bars cabinet members from interfering with media organizations.
Economics
Although September closed with a loss of 14.4%, Thai stocks saw a small rise this week, following the overall Asian trend. Sentiment was lifted and there was recovery in a broad range of assets due to increasing hope from Europe’s latest efforts to alleviate financial distress. This is in addition to U.S. data suggesting a recession may be evaded. The best performing stocks were energy shares which occupies over 20% in the benchmark SET index. “Gains in commodities and oil prices will support the market… But the recent selling trend in domestic funds could limit any strong market rally,” said Parin Kitchaotornpitak, senior analyst at broker KTB Securities. Despite the slight increase, there is no question that the future of the market still remains volatile. Last month, a significant amount of international investors cashed out of assets in emerging markets, including Thailand. However, the Bank of Thailand is closely monitoring the volatility and economic officials are working to reduce impacts. It has been recommended that Thailand should pay greater attention to export diversification and focus less on its traditional export dependence. The Bank of Thailand has numerous plans to examine options such as further investments overseas and conducting a study on capital mobility to better understand flow-in capital in the long run. The goal is to prevent uncontrollable pressure on the baht and asset prices in Thailand. (Thailand Business News) (Reuters) (Market Watch)
The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee held a meeting this week to review the 2012 inflation target. It was announced that a new inflation target will be submitted to the Finance Ministry early next month and will impose “significant” change. Bangkok Bank was not happy and made it clear to the central bank and the Finance Ministry. The Bank of Thailand maintained that next year the Asian economy might not grow as much as last year, 8 to 10%, because of the lack of European support. On October 19, the Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review the European debt crisis in order to further assess inflation risk and Thai policy makers will weigh the risks to Thailand’s growth and inflation. In the beginning of the week, the baht added 0.2 percent to 31.15 per dollar, one of the weakest levels since August 2010. Last month the baht slid 3.7%. However, following the BOT intervention in the foreign-exchange market, the baht and bonds rose. The baht gained 0.1 percent to 31.13 per dollar. The yield on the 5.4 percent notes due July 2016 dropped five basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 3.52 percent. “Intervention won’t be able to reverse the trend, but the baht’s decline may stall just for now,” said Minori Uchida, senior analyst in Tokyo at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. (The Nation) (Business Week) (Bloomberg)
Food security and the link to economics are in question this week. Despite previous commitments to sell one million tons of rice to Indonesia annually, there was a halt of the negotiations with Thai government after the increases in Thai commodity prices. Indonesia is seeking cheaper imports deals with Vietnam, Pakistan and India. Although there has not been an official confirmation from Thailand on the cancellation of the proposed 300,000 tons of rice supply, a senior official at the Thai Commerce Ministry stated that Thailand has not guaranteed any government-to-government agreements other than a non-binding memorandum of understanding (MOU). Tikamporn Nardworatat, overseer of government-to-government contracts at the ministry’s Department of Foreign Trade, said he was unaware of the reported deal. International commentators noted that if Thais are set on selling rice at a higher price, the rest of world will counteract in providing a cheaper supply. Cambodia, Myanmar, Brazil, many other Latin American countries, Uruguay, Paraguay, Argentina, some east African countries, South African countries were noted as potential evolvers and suppliers. (RadioAustralia) (The News) (PakObserver)
PM Yingluck Shinawatra is visiting Burma this week, with an expectation to be reviving Thailand and Burma’s special economic relationship. The relationship was primarily convened under Thaskin’s Prime Ministry and his implemented policy of ‘forward engagement’ which focused on increasing Burmese investments. The agenda supposedly consists of opening permanent border checkpoints, assistance to develop national and human resources and supporting cooperation to tackle border-related problems such as illicit drugs and workers. Sources noted Yingluck’s visit is timely aligned with the recent postponement of the contented Chinese-backed hydroelectric dam. The assumption is that the release of the $3.66 billion project is an outlet for Burma to be less reliant on China as a foreign investor. “Thailand has the potential to really use a lot of resources, economic resources from Burma, petroleum, hydro-electric power, gas, all sorts of things, which are needed to really boost Thailand’s growing economy” says Dr Paul Chambers, director of research at Thailand’s Payap University. Chambers also noted that Yingluck did not seem to be scheduling any meetings democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, meaning the government focus is not human rights based. The Myanmar government announced that once securing smooth transportation operations, a bilateral agreement on bilateral trade, customs and banking agreements, and a balance of exports and imports between the two countries, they would be prepared to work with Thailand. (Radio Australia) (Irrawaddy)
Security
Action to alleviate the insurgency in the South is being investigated from varying actors. PM Yingluck Shinawatra has reversed her campaign promise to establish a special administration zone in the South as a result of the lack of support for the Pheu Thai party in the three insurgent provinces, despite international analyst opinion that self rule may be the only solution. Experts note that restructuring the bureaucratic system is irrelevant if new policy isn’t initiated. Many believe the violence will not stop without the government instigating a form of decentralized power and holding formal discussions with the insurgents. Army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha traveled to the South this week to inspect army operations in Narathiwat, Pattani and Yala. General Prayuth announced that security will be increased to restrain the movements and actions of insurgents. This will include control measures on firearms, ammunition and explosives will be tightened. He also stated that security is not the only solutions but all actors must be involved in supporting mutual understanding and that government representatives should implement fairness for everybody. General Prayuth advised local residents help monitor any indiscretions and for government personnel to continue their operations without using heavy-handed retaliation against suspects.
The new Malaysian ambassador to Thailand, Ms. Nazirah Hussain, visited the South at the end of last week to better understand the unrest and violence in the border region from local people and security officials. Specifically, Nazirah was briefed by Pramuk Lamun, Deputy Secretary-General of the Southern Border Provinces Administration Centre (SBPAC) in Yala, to gain facts and to learn about how the violence is being handled. Other bilateral efforts to reduce the violence came from Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono who stated “We fully support political … efforts to deal with problems in southern Thailand as well as efforts to increase the people’s welfare.” Although Indonesian support is not new and was discouraged during Thaskin’s administration, the neighboring state has proposed to offer scholarships for Southern Thai children and political support to help protect the economic, social, and cultural rights of southern Thai civilians. Indonesia has also repeatedly offered the Thai government “lessons learned” in protecting its citizens from a similar, resolved, internal war in Aceh. The question remains whether Yingluck and the Thai government will use Indonesia as a resource. (VOA News) (Bangkok Post) (Jakarta Post)
Despite the significant discussion surrounding solutions, a southern security intelligence agency received reports that Islamic militants were planning to increase their attacks in cities in the South. The attacks are meant as a follow-up to the September 16 car bombings in Narathiwat which killed 6 people, including 4 Malaysian tourists, and wounded more than 100 others. The report claimed the insurgents would target residential areas, fresh markets, Buddhist communities, entertainment spots and government buildings and be implemented by using motorcycles and car bombs. In related news, Ismail Salae, 24, was arrested yesterday for being involved with a shooting which killed 1 and injured 3 at a tea shop in Narathiwat.
This week, suspected militants shot and killed the village headman of Ban Aiso at a mosque in Narathiwat, a truck driver was shot dead by two gunmen on a motorcycle and a defense volunteer was shot and wounded while riding his motorcycle in Pattani. A bomb went in Pattani which destroyed a fence at a Muslim cemetery and previous to that three people were shot dead and two homes were badly damaged after being set on fire.
Military updates include 488 naval officers were commissioned to the 3 lower provinces of Thailand to reinforce security for the Navy and Army teams, including Medics. The new navy chief, Admiral Surasak Roonroengrom, has also stated that he will carry on his predecessor’s efforts to obtain a submarine fleet. Admiral Surasak maintains that submarine is meant to protect the country’s marine resources and to support a strategic balance in the Southeast Asian region. The cabinet has already approved the Defense Ministry’s proposal to buy 2 new Black Hawk helicopters at a cost of 2.841 billion baht. The purchase will be funded from the previously established budget over a three year period. Of the total cost, 570 million baht will be allocated from the 2011 budget, 789 million baht will be taken from the 2012 budget and 1.482 billion baht will be from the 2013 budget. (Bangkok Post) (Pattaya People)
Thai officials are recommitting to strengthen their crackdown on ridding the internet of royal insults. The Office of Prevention and Suppression of Information Technology Crimes employs 10 computer specialists, led by Mr Surachai Nilsang, who search the Internet for photos, articles and Facebook postings that could be considered insulting to King Bhumibol Adulyadej and his family. The budget for the unit and staff levels will soon be increased in order for the office to run a 24-hour operation. Over the past four years, 70,000 Internet pages have been blocked. Mr Surachai maintains that anti-monarchy sentiment on the internet has amplified after the September 2006 military coup. (Today Online)
Human rights concerns vary this week relating to both internal and external abuses. The Thai Catholic Church is citing corruption as a threat to national security. The Church, partnered with the Commission for Justice and Peace, held a conference attended by 200 people to explore the theme “If a ‘negligible’ corruption becomes acceptable … how can the Thai nation survive?” The conference was based on recent survey conducted by the Catholic University of the Assumption that found 62% of young Thais believe a “minimum” of corruption is acceptable, while only 38% of all respondents deem it “unacceptable”. The Corruption Perceptions Index, compiled by Transparency International, placed Thailand 78th place in the world, with an index of 3.5 points out of a possible 10. A survey conducted by the University of Thailand Chamber of Commerce showed that 75% of respondents said they have no interest in interfering and prefer to “do nothing”. About 56% consider corruption a “serious problem”, 32% think that “everyone” should work against corruption and 20% blame the government, which does not truly intend to rid Thailand of corruption. (Spero News)
Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) has announced it has stopped providing medical assistance in Thailand to the thousands of unregistered migrants and refugees under its care. MSF will stop operating all together by the end of the year, despite working in Thailand since 1975 and the 70 staff employed. Denis Penoy, MSF’s head of mission, told the press that the choice to stop operating is due to administrative blockages to reach and provide healthcare to the vulnerable populations. In June, the Thai authorities forced MSF to shut down two clinics where the medical aid group had been providing primary healthcare to up 55,000 migrant workers, mainly from Myanmar. Penoy stated that despite the efforts by the Thai government to register the migrants, they still do not have access to basic human amenities. “You still have between 1.5 million and 2 million undocumented migrants in Thailand who are deprived of access to healthcare, so only a fraction of the needs are covered at the moment.” Around 140,000 Myanmar refugees live in border camps and depend heavily on international aid.
Serious concerns have been raised in regards to hostile treatment and harassment of Nigerians by the authorities of Thailand. Bishop Frank Owali part of the World Overseer of Hebron-Harvest International Ministry fled Thailand, claimed that 700 Nigerians have been arrested and placed in detention around Bangkok. Owali alleged that unprecedented harassment, assault, arrest and extortion of money led several Nigerians to go underground and some Nigerians have been in prison custody for several years without being given the opportunity for a trial. Mr. Obi Peter, a former President of the Nigerian Community in Thailand, reportedly died in prison custody due to lack of medical treatment. Several Nigeran peaceful protesters were arrested following Mr. Peter’s death. President Goodluck Jonathan and the Nigerian Minister for Foreign Affairs have been asked to intervene.
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