Summary
Thailand is hit by the worst flood in decades causing massive loss of life, live stock and properties as well as huge damages to infrastructure and industrial production. The sheer size of the flood (an estimated 400 billion cubic meter of water around Bangkok) demands for united and joint efforts in managing and mitigating the disaster.
Although unity is not consistent, the overall Thai spirit of helping each other is unbroken so far. While struggling with the immediate crisis, the main problem solving actors do not have the time and energy to additionally focus on medium and long term rehabilitation measures. Despite the initial forming of laws and committees, the population is not yet involved in this process. Medial, infrastructural and economic challenges will have long term effects on the workforce in terms of health, productivity and efficiency. As the flood is expected to continue at least for another 45 days, it remains to be seen how long the need for rehabilitation will last.
Politics
Although original flooding began in June 2011, effective action and solutions by the incumbent governments were not implemented until a real crisis was emerging. Regardless of early warning signs since the beginning of July, the focus of political Thailand had been directed at the newly elected Pheu Thai Party government. The need for solution development for the upcoming floods escaped government officials’ attention until it was too late, as pointed out by some experts. However, it should be noted that the current government led by PM Yinluck Shinawatra cannot receive all the blame as many long term aiming flood management plans have been pushed aside by previous administrations. In addition to the lack of preceding action, politicians seem to be working against each other, increasing the deep divisions that linger from the –by many “experts” superficially diagnosed- civil unrest as reminiscence from 2010. This is in addition to the well known but rarely efficiently addressed underlining unequal distribution of wealth. Fighting for “political points”, a power struggle has ensued as described by some commentators. Contradictory messages from PM Yingluck and local authorities have been sent to already anxious residents, including conveying inaccurate predictions and directions for what action should be taken. As a result, Democrat Party Bangkok Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra made his own announcements which gained more visible credibility in the population. Now, in the middle of the crisis, a political blame game has emerged which will continue to contribute to the misleading diverging information and deepen Thailand’s political divide as analyzed by many local commentators. On the other hand, some international experts are citing the floods as proof of leadership failure.
Economics
Once among the world’s fastest-growing economies, flooding continues to compound the substantial economic decline both domestically and internationally. Economists are now estimating total damages to reach up to 300 billion Thai baht, or $9.7 billion USD. The 2011 growth forecast dropped to 2.6% from 3.5%, compared to the estimate of around 5.4% for the entirety of Southeast Asia. More than 1,000 factories have been closed, slashing production and spiking prices worldwide. Automakers are struggling to sustain production: Ford, Mazda, Hino, Isuzu, Mitsubishi and Nissan have all reported a decrease. The supply chain of electronics products are being affected as factories that create hard drives have closed. Part productions for cameras have also dropped affecting camera shipments by Sony, Nikon and Canon.
Food production is also sinking; as a major producer of rice, Thailand has lost more than 10% of its farmable land. This percentage will most likely increase but it is still difficult to conclude how much farmland is unusable due to the quick spreading of water. The decrease in production will add to the pressure on world food prices that have already risen.
The incumbent government has already put some first laws and committees in place to cope with several aspects of rehabilitation. However, it will take time to see results, even though the drainage of some industrial estates is envisaged within the next days. Psychological damage to the labor force and infrastructural damages need to be addressed to overcome the massive impact by Mother Nature. Analysts have stressed that the total impact on global trade and inflation is yet to be determined.
Security
Crime and desperation throughout Thailand is growing, with an increase in power outages and food shortages. An estimated 2 million people have been affected by flooding, with more than 100,000 utilizing shelters. Citizens are working tirelessly to ferry food and water to their families or leave their communities with whatever possessions they can salvage from their underwater homes. Civil unrest has arisen, as some local residents feel they have been “sacrificed” by the government, when choices have perceived to protect rich Bangkok over the rest of the country. Citizens have protested and broken sluice gates or dams that had held flood waters in their neighborhoods.
Additionally, although majority of the 427 fatalities recorded so far have been a result of drowning, dozens have now been electrocuted due to the proximity to industrial zones and heavily developed parts of Bangkok. As the overall security / safety situation is still in an acceptable level, it remains to be seen how the situation will develop if the flooding continues as predicted another 45 days.
Medical
The emergence of water-borne diseases has become a serious concern for Thailand. Many streets have become floating landfills, overflowing with waste, sewage and rotten food. Although no outbreaks have been reported, analysts claim that diseases will emerge in the coming weeks after the water stops flowing and becomes stale pools. Mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue fever and malaria are a concern as well as eye infections and ailments that could cause diarrhea and severe dehydration. Many flooded homes have no running water or working toilets, compelling residents to bathe and defecate in water they use for food and playing. Cases of leptospirosis have already been reported. Shelters are lacking appropriate medicine, volunteers, doctors and staff. According to the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department, 107,101 persons have reported or been diagnosed with stress, 6,214 with depression, 878 at risk of committing suicide and 1,356 persons now under the close watch of health officials. This altogether will affect the long term quality of the work force and their families. Rehabilitation efforts need to address not only the actual outbreak of diseases but long term prevention plans for the future.
Flood Incident Chronology
June 2011- October 2011
June 2011
22 provinces are hit with flooding and warnings of upcoming flash floods and mudslides: Mae Hong Son; Chiang Mai; Lampang; Lamphun; Chiang Rai; Phayao; Phrae; Nan; Tak; Sukhothai; Phisanulok; Uttaradit; Phetchabun; Chonburi; Rayong; Chanthaburi; Trat; Ranong; Phang Nga; Phuket; Krabi and Trang.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1U7J66TB2FY
One person drowned in Mae Sot district, Tak and people reported missing in Wiang Sa district, Nan province.
July 2011
Post election, the new Pheu Thai-led government announces plans to invest in sea landfills and build a dam in the Gulf of Thailand to save the Bangkok from floods
Heavy precipitation in Northern and Northeastern Thailand and flash flooding beginning 31 July
One week later, thirteen had been reported dead, with ongoing flooding in the provinces of Chiang Mai, Lampang, Lamphun, Mae Hong Son, Nan, Phrae, and Uttaradit in the North, and Bung Kan, Nakhon Phanom, Nong Khai, Sakon Nakhon and Udon Thani in the upper Northeast. The overflowing waters from the Yom and Nan Rivers created flooding in upper-central provinces of Phichit, Phitsanulok, Sukhothai.
August 2011
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra made tours of flood provinces beginning August 12th and assigned cabinet members and members of parliament to visit affected people, pledging support to local administration organizations
Death toll
August 19th – 32 people
August 22nd – 37 people
August 30th – 54 people
1.13 million house-holds or about 3.87 million people have suffered as a result of flash floods and mudslides caused by monsoon rains and Tropical Storm Nock-Ten.
Farm production reduced in downstream provinces, including major rice producers such as Ang Thong, Ayutthaya, Phichit, Chai Nat and Nakhon Sawan.
The floods affected 2.4 million rai of farmland in 14 in Central and Lower North provinces. Strong storms and rains also damaged 1.56 million rai of livestock areas and 18,890 rai of fisheries.
Floodwaters reached 50 cm in downtown Nan and already became the highest recorded in 16 years in Phitsanulok Province.
Ayutthaya keeps students away from schools along the river and in low-lying areas.
The Democrat Party has launched a flood relief center asking for donations and voluntary services in all 27 affected provinces.
September 2011
Flooding spreads to 29 provinces, destroying more than 300,000 homes and livelihoods of 1.9 million people. 1.3 million acres of farm land is under water.
Yingluck’s one month-old government approved 800 million baht ($27 million) in compensation for households affected by floods.
Flood damage from July 25th to September 22nd is estimated at more than 32 billion baht, pushing the GDP down by 0.3-0.4%. Damage to houses totaled around 1.82 billion baht, and 5.87 billion baht of damage for roads, drainage systems, dykes, bridges, schools, temples and other infrastructure. An estimate of 1.45 billion worth of damage had been done to the fishing industry and 391 million baht of damage to the industrial sector. The flooding also hurt the tourism sector (648 million baht), business and trade (4.71 billion baht) and other sectors (329 million baht).
Death Toll
September 15th – 80 people
September 16th – 98 people
September 21st – 130 people
September 29th – 173 people
September 30th – 188 people
Due to broken floodgates, water from the Chao Phraya is flowing through irrigation canals and overwhelming large areas of rice fields in Singburi, Ang Thong and Ayutthaya.
In Phichit, 12 districts remained under water and about 75% of the flooded areas inundated with flood waters as deep as two meters. Sandbag embankments collapsed in areas such as Suphan Buri’s Bang Pla Ma district and Ang Thong province.
Bangkok continues to be safe as the fields from the rice paddies serve as water retention areas. Citizens threaten to protest after being forced to have the excess water drained into their fields and suffering from financial losses.
PM Yingluck deploys army and naval boats in the Chao Phraya River, with their engines running while remaining stationary, attempting to use the motion from the propellers speeds up the flow.
By September 19th, almost all lower central provinces were being affected by flood: Uthai Thani; Chai Nat; Sing Buri; Ang Thong; Suphan Buri; Ayutthaya; Pathum Thani; Nonthaburi (bordering Bangkok)
By September 29th, flood situation is announced as critical. Cabinet ministers and Pheu Thai MPs are asked to stay overnight in flood affected areas. 13 districts of Bangkok are announced as at risk of flooding — Nong Khang Phlu, Thung Song Hong, Sai Mai, Khlong Thanon, Anusawari, Chorakhe Bua, Lat Phrao, Khlong Kum, Hua Mak, Saphan Sung, Khlong Song Ton Nun and Lat Krabang.
By September 30th, 10,000 soldiers are deployed to help victims.
The Irrigation Department is ordered to rapidly manage the floodwater and the Internal Security Operations Command sent out troops help the flooded people. Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department sends flat bottom boats, knocks-down houses and provides other necessary equipment.
The army dispatches 500 military vehicles, more than 100 boats and 12 medical teams to offer first-aid and psychological treatment in order to patrol flood-stricken areas and increase safety
Governors of Chiang Mai, Chaiyaphum, Khon Kaen and Mahasarakham reported provinces were manageable
October 2011
Thailand faces its worst flooding since 1942, spread over 63 of Thailand’s 77 provinces since late July, killed at least 381 people, swamped factories and farms and affected more than nine million total
The flood damage is now estimated to cost at least 100 billion baht with potential to reach 200 billion baht, with a chance of reducing the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 2%. Overall growth this year will likely fall to 2.5%, compared to its previous forecast of 3.6%. Economic decline becomes a main
concern as 14,000 businesses are closed. The disruption to the supply chain can damage quarter of the world’s hard-disk drives Thailand produces and Thailand’s role as the Southeast Asian production hub for Japanese carmakers.
Social unrest continues as unhappy civilians rise up against irrigation and government officials and/or the army due to flood management
At the start of October, most dams were near or already over capacity. There becomes an increasing rate of discharge of water, increasing the risk for downstream flooding. Fears mount in Bangkok as waters rise.
Photos are being shown world wide of Thais making their way through flooded streets, with their belongings, children and animals mounted on their shoulders
Flooding in Ayutthaya becomes more dire when water enters the city proper, inundating the Ayutthaya Historical Park and forcing evacuations. Barriers protecting industrial estates failed, resulting in flooding of dozens of major factories leading to a country-wide disruption of manufacturing supply chains.
On October 8th, the 10 meter high water block protecting the Nikom Rojna industrial estate, a base for many manufacturing plants, collapsed. In Nakhon Sawan, the sandbag barrier protecting the city broke, resulting in rapid flooding of the city.
By mid-October, flooding of Bangkok becomes a major concern. Efforts are being implemented to reinforce and repair sandbag flood walls to prevent the Chao Phraya and Rangsit Canals from overflowing into Bangkok. A race begins to prepare for flooding.
On October 14th, floods emerge. Several districts in eastern Bangkok, which have no flood wall, as well as parts of the surrounding Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Chachoengsao and Nakhon Pathom Provinces, became flooded as a result of water being spread from the Chao Phraya to the Nakhon Nayok River and outlying canals.
On October 16th, the USS George Washington aircraft carriers, as well as several other United States Navy ships were deployed to Thailand to assist in relief work.
On October 17th, most of the worst case scenarios are avoided and the inner sections of Bangkok temporarily escape flooding
On October 20th, flooding threatens the capital again. The Chao Praya River is expected to rise to a record 2.6m above mean sea level, residents to prepare for water overflow.
On October 21st, Thailand opens the flood gates and it is announced that Thailand’s flooding will last up to 6 long weeks. PM Shinawatra invokes the 2007 disaster prevention and mitigation law giving her full authority to prosecute officials for negligence if they fail to follow instructions due to lack of unity between operating authories.
On October 24th, floods reach Bangkok’s Don Muang airport, one of the capital’s 2 main airports and the temporary home to the flood relief operation command (Froc). In the following few days, floodwaters force closure of airport including relocating citizens and Froc operations.
On October 25th, significant threats arise of dikes breaking under floodwaters
October 27th through October 31st is declared an official holiday. Residents flee the city and Bangkok is evacuated. The US military is asked to survey Thai floods. However, during this time, again Bangkok is spared of worst case scenarios – efforts to drain water to the east and west of the capital are announced as a success.
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