19th ASEAN Summit
Summary
A “secret meeting” was held by the government to potentially induce an amnesty for former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s return to Thailand and the opposing People’s Alliance for Democracy continues to protest. Although having faced the varying challenges of the infectious Europe debt crisis and one of the worst disasters in multiple decades, Thailand is working to deepen cooperation and boost political will to recover. Both the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit met this week to review and renew regional economic commitments. Thai representatives are working to increase international investor’s confidence, further bilateral relationships and build frameworks to benefit Thailand in the future. Thai Commerce Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong has reassured citizens the increasing minimum wage policy will be implemented and building industry in Burma remains a part of the Thai industrial future. US-Thai relations is the leading security story on multiple fronts including US sponsored IED trainings and Obama has announced dedication for the support of the Southeast Asia region. Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul re-stresses the importance of dealing with the ICJ conflict while the Thai healthcare system is nominated as an international model.
Politics
As water recedes in Bangkok, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra reclaimed the headlines after weeks of unusual silence. In a secret cabinet meeting, with PM Yingluck absent, a drafted amnesty decree was endorsed, a move seen by the opposition to bring fugitive former PM Thaksin back without serving his jail sentence. Critics believe the meeting was held intentionally while most of the country was preoccupied with floodwaters or rehabilitation measures. According to information that leaked from the meeting, the amnesty would allow everyone over the age of 60 years with a prison sentence of less than three years to be eligible to forego jail time, to be handed out on His Majesty the King’s Birthday on December 5th. Opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva criticized the proposed changes to the decree as last year corruption cases were ineligible for the amnesty, claiming, “It’s so obvious that this was done specifically for Thaksin”. The People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), or yellow shirts, have announced plans to hold a rally against the decree to be held on Monday November 21st. Thaksin issued a hand written letter over the weekend announcing that he does not want special treatment declaring, “I am ready to sacrifice my own happiness even though I have not received justice for over five years. For the people, I will be patient.” Thaksin argued that as people are still suffering from the ongoing flood and His Majesty the King is falling ill, it was important not to take steps to further disrupt national unity. In response, the government dropped its plan to seek a royal plan for the former Prime Minister. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation) (New York Times)
With more than 560 people losing their lives in this year’s flood and investor confidence seriously disturbed, Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong announced future flood mitigation measures to restore confidence in multinational firms, including Google, Microsoft, AT&T, Cagill, Boeing and GE at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO forum in Hawaii. Ideas towards flood prevention include a new river, new highways, new railways as well as new towns. Additionally the government asked the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) for support in regards to water resource management. Kittiratt and Virabongsa Ramangura, head of a strategic committee for reconstruction and development, will be visiting Japan on November 25th to meet Japanese investors and outline flood reconstruction plans. PM Yingluck Shinawatra lobbied for a regional ASEAN-wide cooperation on water resource management to prevent future catastrophic flooding at the ASEAN Summit in Bali, Indonesia. A statement regarding “Cooperation on Flood Prevention, Mitigation, Relief, Recovery and Rehabilitation” will be issued by the ASEAN leaders. On November 17th, the Heads of State signed the Bali Concord III thereby promising to intensify regional cooperation among different fields. Among those mentions were the adoption of region-wide production standards, a distribution system for commodities, increased openness, technological progress, and energy diversification. Additionally, natural disaster relief prevention, climate change and education were addressed as well as the establishment of a coordinating center for humanitarian relief in the management of disasters (AHA Center) and an agreement for solidarity in the defense and promotion of ASEAN cultural diversity. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation) (Jakarta Globe)
Despite the high costs it will take to revive the economy, the Thai government plans to proceed with raising the minimum wage in order to increase consumer spending. Although industrial estates and businesses are protesting the hike more than ever, wages in Bangkok and six other provinces are expected to be raised to 300 baht a day by April 1st. In the rest of the country, wages are expected to be raised an average of 40% by April 1 and then to 300 baht ($9.73) per day by 2013, with rates frozen at that level until 2015. , Kittiratt claims, “I don’t see the wage hike as a suffering for companies”. The goal is to increase purchasing power for domestic markets and in turn, the government will earn higher tax dollars when consumption is increased. (Business Week)
Economics
Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong revealed that The World Bank has offered to loan Thailand 30 billion THB (US$1 billion) to support Thailand’s long-term flood prevention projects investments. The government has announced that it is still considering the offer, stating government officials would be more interested in foreign investors who wished to form a consortium with Thai investors. Asian Development Bank, the Japan Bank for International Cooperation and the Japan International Cooperation Agency have similarly offered to provide loans. Notably, if the loan were accepted from foreign donors, transparency would be guaranteed for all projects. (Bangkok Post). Thus far this week, stocks have been higher than expected as the U.S. economy continues to perform adequately but gains are limited by the euro zone debt crisis. Dividend returns from companies such as mobile phone firm stocks help SET index edge up 0.07% to 984.97 on Tuesday, November 15th and 1.23% to 997.11 on Wednesday, November 16th. (Reuters)
Building industry in Burma is being reviewed as companies are finalizing cooperation plans. Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding (Ratch) has announced signing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Italian-Thai Development (ITD) to support coal-fired power plants that are targeted to produce almost 4,000-megawatts in Dawei, Burma (Ratch – 30% and ITD – 70%). The agreement also includes building six 600-MW units. Each megawatt is worth US$1.5 million. The power plants are meant to satisfy electricity demands in Burma, including the expected future increase in infrastructure. Surplus power will be used to strengthen Thailand’s access to electricity as well. Plans for Ratch’s future development may include building a deep-sea port and three more foreign investment agreements which are expected to be concluded next year. Separately, ITD has signed an agreement with the Burmese government for the 10-year project, with the first phase worth $8 billion. The total worth of the project is estimated to be $58 billion USD. (Bangkok Post) (Mena FN)
Regional economic cooperation is at the fore front Thai news as economic ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are meeting this week in Bali for the 19th summit to outline the next step in liberalizing collaboration. Sources have reported that ASEAN Framework on Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership has been refreshed in a newly adopted framework – Bali Declaration on ASEAN Community in a Global Community of Nations or “Bali Concord III”. Adhering to the new protocol will mean the 10 free trading partners will reaffirm their commitments to regional integration and working towards establishing an ASEAN Economic Community by 2015. The framework asks that Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam should establish three working groups on trade in goods and services as well as investment. ASEAN is also reaching out to its Northeast partners, as ASEAN 10 signed an emergency rice reserve with China, Japan and South Korea – also known as the ASEAN+3. Other economic issues being discussed relate to the impact of Europe’s debt crisis on ASEAN and the East Asian region. According to an evaluation report issued by Moody’s Investors Services in October, external economic issues are negatively impacting the growth path of ASEAN, with a current growth rate of 4.8% and potential downfall in the year to come. Several other documents are expected to be released after the closing of the summit. (Xinhaunet) (Mainichai) (Today)
In similar news, at the ongoing APEC summit, the Thai government has also been asked to review its option to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Experts claim that Thailand cannot afford to overlook this trade agreement especially after Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda claimed Japan would be interested in supporting the deal. The 12 countries that account for the TPP make up for almost 40%of the global economy, including 800 million consumers. If part of the partnership, smaller countries like Thailand can join as partners with nations on a similar level of economic development, such as Vietnam and Malaysia, to increase their bargaining power against the US and push export and FDI growth. Thai analysts claim it might be beneficial for Thailand to join while the partnership is being formed to ensure Thailand gains appropriate benefits such as reducing global tariffs and trade barriers. Joining the TPP may also be used as a tool to restore the confidence of foreign investors. (Yahoo)
Security
The U. S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) Tactical Training Center at Cha-am, a U.S.-funded law-enforcement academy is holding an explosion and post bomb training for Thai police officers. The training consists of examining wreckage to discover what causes explosions and collecting evidence to track down culprits. The training also consists of looking for secondary devices. ATF and other law-enforcement agencies around the world are taking notice of the Southern Insurgency and are hoping to help Thailand reduce the impact of the violence. According to the TRITON global terrorism database, operated by counter-IED specialists Allen-Vanguard Ltd. and the Pentagon’s Joint IED Defeat Organization, IED responsible for casualties was higher in Thailand (54%) than in Iraq (30%) or Afghanistan (21%) “Insurgent ingenuity and technical skill have combined to produce a constantly shifting kaleidoscope of tactics, techniques and types of IEDS, permitting militant cells either to stay one step ahead of countermeasures or adapt rapidly to meet them,” according to Bangkok-based security analyst Anthony Davis. (TIME) This week a rubber tapper was shot dead in Narathiwat and two officials of the Nam Dam tambon administration were shot in Pattani. On November 17th, nine bombing and shooting incidents occurred across five districts in Pattani but no one was reported as injured. All of the bombs were home-made devices that were assembled in metal boxes weighing about 2kg and detonated by timers. (Bangkok Post)
Hilary Clinton, United States Secretary of State, and President Barack Obama have vowed to renew the US focus on the Asia-Pacific region, claiming the future of United States’ economy and security is dependent on emerging institutions of the fast-growing region. After being preoccupied with the Middle East for over a decade, Clinton will be concentrating on the US’s five treaty-bound regional allies – Australia, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand – claiming these countries will be the “fulcrum” of US efforts including creating jobs and opportunities for the American people. “One of the messages that the secretary will bring directly to the Thai people and the government is that we believe it is in the national security and political interests of the United States to have this [Thai] government succeed. We will do what we can to support that going forward. There are substantial tensions in Thailand and those tensions will not be resolved after one or even a few elections”. Analysts suspect that US may be attempting to widen their influence in Asia as a check on Chinese power and to define a clearer path to defuse conflicts such as the South China Sea. Nations such as Japan and South Korea have sought reassurances from the United States that it would serve as a balance in the region. Foreign Minister Surapong Towijakchaiku commented that Thailand will need to work on “balancing new friends like the United States and old friend China.” Surapong also stated he would like to see the US reduce some of the sanctions on Myanmar to reflect progress in reforms. Clinton visited the Philippines earlier this week and both Clinton and Obama will be attending the ASEAN summit. (Reuters) (AFP)
Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul is re-urging the Thai government to comply with the International Court of Justice’s provisional measures to withdraw troops from the disputed Preah Vihear Temple area. Surapong has warned that if Thailand violates the ICJ’s request, Cambodia may ask the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to issue obligatory orders instead which would only negatively harm Thailand in the long run. Surapong has maintained that abiding by the ICJ’s order would not negatively affect Thailand’s territory or sovereignty as the right to safeguard the land by dispatching police and government officials will remain intact. A joint parliamentary session of MPs and senators met this week to test opinions on Thailand’s stance on the ICJ’s provisional measures. (Bangkok Post)
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has praised Thailand’s healthcare system, including the ability to provide health security and medical attention to the poor and underprivileged, specifically in light of the flooding. Ban Ki-moon commented that Thailand is a good model for other countries which he will be introducing in his global campaign to promote women’s and children’s health. It was specifically acclaimed that the health care system is run by the government and does its best to help citizens avoid bankruptcy as a result of unpaid medical bills with an efficient and secure system. Similarly commended was the health care sector’s joint work with the private sector and non-governmental organizations. (The Nation)
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