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Summary

Contradictions and disagreements continue to thrive within the political sector. Thailand’s lese majeste law remains a titanic source of contention between governments, internationally governing bodies and citizens. Opposing arguments grow as Democrats accuse PTP officials of implementing policy to accommodate Thaksin’s return. Investigation of the deaths which occurred during the crackdown on “red shirt” anti-government protests is being reopened and officials are being asked to respond for their actions. Thai markets remain in a declining state, with several analysts voicing negative opinions of Thailand’s big rejuvenation plans. Economic relationship building is occurring between Thais, Japanese and Chinese and retail loss has been identified as major deficit for Thailand. Border areas between Thailand and China and the Southern provinces remain areas of dispute as Chinese armed security police begin patrolling the Mekong and violence in the South appears to have no end.  Myanmar refugees are also finally receiving some support from the Thai government.

Politics

Thailand’s lese majeste law, Article 112 of the Criminal Code, gained international media attention again after Thai born, U.S. citizen, Joe Gordon was sentenced to two and a half years in prison. Gordon was sentenced for translating and publishing excerpts of a banned biography of Thailand’s king online while living in Colorado. The United States expressed its concern after Joe Gordon’s conviction. Representatives stated that although the U.S. considers freedom of expression a fundamental human right, American officials respected Thai laws and would not take sides in internal affairs. A group of hard-line royalists demonstrated in front of the US Embassy and UN office in Bangkok urging them not to interfere in Thai affairs on Friday, December 16. They claimed criticizing Article 112 was only the first step, arguing that condemning the law would ultimately lead to demands to abolish the monarchy altogether. Several days later, red shirt activist Daranee “Da Torpedo” Charncherngsilapakul was sentenced to 15 years in jail for comments made during a speech in 2008 considered to violate the lese majeste law. Daranee stated she will not appeal against the decision but will file a request for a royal pardon. The European Union Delegation in Thailand expressed “deep concern” in a statement made after 61 year old Ampol Tangnopakul, also known as “Uncle SMS”, was sentenced to 20 years in a lese majeste conviction. A UN High Commissioner for Human Rights spokesperson declared, “We are concerned about the ongoing trials and harsh sentencing of people convicted of lese majeste in Thailand,” adds that, “such harsh criminal sanctions are neither necessary nor proportionate and violate the country’s international human rights obligations.” (Businessweek) (Boston Globe) (Voice of America) (Bangkok Post)

In related news, the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Ministry blocked more than 60,000 websites during the past three months, compared to 73,000 blocked under the last Democrat-led government. The Ministry additionally defends its 400 million baht investment for the so-called lawful interception (LI) system, which blocks objectionable website content. (Bangkok Post)

Police forces are reinvestigating the 16 deaths that occurred during last year’s red-shirt anti-government protests, questioning both former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and former deputy prime minister Suthep Thaugsuban for several hours. Abhisit informed reporters that he stated Suthep Thaugsuban had been in charge of the security operations. Suthep, previous head of the ad-hoc Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation (CRES), accepted his responsibility for the decision to crack down on protesters through military force but remained convinced that he acted within the law and was adamant of no wrongdoing. He argued that his political rivals, some of whom took part in last year’s protests, would try to use this investigation to distort facts and take revenge now that they hold official government positions. Suthep also accused red shirt forces of manipulating investigators to prosecute him and coerce Democrats into agreeing with an amnesty deal for Thaksin. (AFP) (The Nation) (MCOT) (Bangkok Post)

The Pheu Thai government is pushing forward several controversial legal changes, including implementing the 2007 Charter amendment, an amnesty bill, and amending the Defense Ministry administrative act. Critics see the charter amendment as another attempt towards bringing Thaksin Shinawatra back to Thailand.  Palusuk, Pheu Thai MP and head of the party’s legal team, stated that “without the amnesty bill, it is hard to achieve national reconciliation.” The proposed amendment may lead to overturning the corruption investigation result against Thaksin.  Democrat Party spokesman Chavanond Intarakomalyasut is also accusing Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul of issuing a Thai passport to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra on October 31^st. The passport was supposedly handed off between November 22th and 25th when Surapong had apparently visited Dubai. Mr. Chavanond stated that pending investigation, Surapong may have to face legal action for breaching the law. (Bangkok Post)

Economics

The Thai stock market has now ended lower in the last three sessions, receding 1.5%. Investors are preparing for continued consolidation. Overall Asian markets and stocks such as technology shares, airlines, gold miners and retailers are expected to fall due to increasing global pressure.  Inflationary pressure also remains high but is not accelerating. Opposingly, the Bank of Thailand Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul has reported that bank’s benchmark interest rate is not on a downward trend despite the bank’s decision to reduce the policy rate .25 points to 3.25%. Many of the country’s commercial banks have not responded to the rate reduction so far, with some analysts noting that the monetary policy may be ineffective.  Governor Prasarn has maintained that the policy will take time to catch up with the economy.  Other experts are commenting on whether the government’s plans to reinvest significant amounts of capital post flooding will be actually put into place and/or be effective. Analysts are remarking that past “mega projects” have not translated into real outcomes including the public investment that has been implemented for the last six consecutive quarters from 2010 until now. Many observers remain doubtful whether the intensive infrastructure projects to prevent future flooding will proceed as planned or not. (Nasdaq) (Market Watch) (The Nation)

International economic cooperation is a theme this week as surrounding nations plan to help redirect Thailand’s economy. Japan has officially brought over 2,000 Thai factory employees of Japanese companies to act as temporary supervisors for six months. Although there are a host of objectives, many companies are trying to prevent skilled employees whose factories have been shut down from finding work at other companies. Many Japanese companies have relocated their major production sites to Thailand in recent years, leaving only backup production sites in Japan. However as Thailand recovers from the floods, production will remain ongoing from Japanese sites.  Thai workers will be placed in areas they are already familiar with so that corporations are able to reach full production as quickly as possible.  Corporations involved, including JVC Kenwood and JS Group Corp., will be securing living arrangements for the visiting workers near the factories and appointing staff from the management companies to provide daily support for the workers. After the sixth month period, the Thai employees must return to Thailand. (Mainchi)

Bangkok Bank has revealed plans to further expand its business in China. It is currently the only Thai bank registered locally in China with branches in Shanghai, Beijing, Xiamen, and Shenzhen. Expansion will include opening operational offices with sub-branches in Chengdu and Suzhou. Many other Thai banks previously located in China pulled out all overseas business after the 1997 economic crisis. The bank’s chairman Chatri Sophonpanich recommended “It is not too late for anyone to expand their banking networks to China. The country’s economy can accommodate all of Thailand’s banks.” However, Bangkok Bank has noted that it will only open new locations if it can guarantee that 50-70% of its services will be utilized initially, which means breaking even within two years of operation. Other concerns include preparing the management to speak Chinese and steadfast knowledge of cross-cultural awareness. (The Bangkok Post)

Other areas of Thai-Chinese collaboration include auto part cooperation. Thai parts manufacturers are working to not only open trade channels with China but to pursue mutually beneficial business, eliminating chances of a deficit. Well known throughout the global market for achieving global standards, Thai auto parts are manufactured with high-quality technology and craftsmanship. Chinese automakers are in strong need of products that align with global standards despite the increase in cost that will have to be incurred. The trade would also strongly benefit Thailand, as Shanghai is one of the world’s leading manufacturing bases for passenger cars. New markets are strongly needed, as Thai-made auto parts are expected to decline by 10% as a result of the recent Thai and Japanese natural disasters. Before the numerous crises, Thailand had set a 400 billion baht target.  Visuth Kasemmongkolporn, director of the Thailand Automotive Parts and Accessories Association (TAPAA) claimed “Of course, competition is fierce, especially in terms of pricing, and if Thai auto parts can initially gain a market share of 1 to 3% in the Chinese auto-parts market, it would be considered a success.” At the moment, industry analysts understand that Thailand is far away from that goal, and that manufacturers may have to switch their concentration to auto parts from rubber components and air-conditioners. (The Nation)

The Global Retail Theft Barometer has shown that for the last five years, the Thai retail industry has had the second-highest inventory loss in the Asia Pacific. During July 2010 to June 2011 there was a total loss of US$1.05 billion or 32.25 billion baht, which rose 4.5% compared to the previous year, among the highest rates of increase in the region. The losses, equivalent to 1.22% of sales, are said to be caused by customer, employee and supplier/vendor fraud. Customer theft accounted for nearly 50% of the total shrinkage. Additionally, Thailand has the lowest ratio in the Asia-Pacific of revenue on loss prevention to security. Experts claim more than ever, companies will have to invest in retail security and loss prevention as global pressures add to rising commodity costs, inflation and unemployment. Thailand has already established a system of “honesty tax” to compensate for the losses, or increased prices, at an average of Bt461.28 (US$15.02) per person. This issue will continue as the Thai and global economy struggles to recover. (The Nation)

Security

The world paid significant attention to the launch of the Chinese armed security police patrolling the Mekong River. The forces consist of 200 officers and men selected from border patrol units along China’s coast and major rivers. The patrols will use 11 converted flat-bottomed passenger and cargo ships and will be based in the Mekong River port of Guanlei next to the Chinese / Myanmar border. Forces also include members from Myanmar, Laos and Thailand. A multinational Mekong River security headquarters is also being developed at Guanlei and will be open to officials from the four included countries, including available experts to help train security personnel in Myanmar and Laos. Significant concerns have been noted as this development is likely to deepen Chinese influence the unstable Mekong region. The Chinese announced at the patrol establishment ceremony that the patrols will be a “bond of friendship between the people of the four nations and the officers and men taking part be ambassadors of friendly exchanges”. The patrols are the first in Chinese history to work in any other country on joint enforcement.  “This is a groundbreaking model of a police cooperation mechanism,” the force’s political commissar, Liu Jianhong, told CCTV. (The Washington Post)

Resolution in the three Southern providences is being re-discussed as The Thai Cabinet extended the emergency decree for another three months, applicable December 20 through March 19, 2012. The decree was established under Thaksin Shinawatra in 2005 to allow security forces powers of arrest and detention in the three southernmost provinces .The government claims a public opinion survey of the region reported local residents are satisfied with the emergency decree. The prime minister set orders that authorities must adhere to the laws to avoid possible human rights violations. Despite these actions, violence continues on a rampage. Two army outposts in Narathiwat were attacked with remote-controlled bombs and grenades. At one outpost, a gunfire attack was exchanged but all soldiers remained unharmed. Police believe insurgents were also responsible for a rubber tree falling into a road, blocking one traffic lane, and bringing down a roadside electric power line. The leader of the Prachatham Party and candidate in the July 3^rd general election was killed by gunmen in Narathiwat followed by two of his attackers being killed by village volunteers. The dead attackers included a man wanted for the high-publicity abduction and fatal bashing of woman teacher. A paramilitary ranger and a villager were shot dead in two different drive-by shooting in Yala. (MCOT) (Bangkok Post)

Violence has struck Bangkok as well when a man, Jirawat Chanpeng, was arrested on December 16^th for planting six homemade bombs at three spots in eastern Bangkok. The bombs are believed to be a scare tactic following the arrest of a suspect who may have been involved in planting a bomb in front of the headquarters of the Government Lottery Office this month.  However, Jirawat denied any involvement in the GLO bombs case. Location of the bombs includes a Bangkok Bank branch, at either ends of a soi (a small street) and at a U-turn under a bridge opposite a market. Explosives ordnance disposal (EOD) police, who examined the bombs and disposed of them, stated they were made by a trained bomb maker, Analysts noted that Jirawat could not have worked without accomplices. More security officers have been deployed to areas deemed at risk, such as Royal City Avenue (RCA), Khao San Road, Thong Lor and Yaowarat all of which are expected to hold large crowds on New Year’s Eve. (Bangkok Post)

Immigration has been a long standing battle with Myanmar refugees, but due to the flooding, Thai policy may begin to change. Around 100.000 Myanmarese  are being flown into Thailand to support the immense amount of rebuilding work that needs to be done. Around 30,000 workers have already arrived and a special checkpoint is being set up at Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi international airport. Additional checkpoints are being introduced at border crossings to avoid unofficial crossing with a $50 entry charge.  Around 200,000 migrants fled Thailand after the floods to return home, many leaving all their belongings behind. However those who return to Thailand are required to be sponsored or work again with their former employers, otherwise they will be considered alien workers and risk deportation. As migrant workers are a central part of Thailand industries, experts believe that the government’s move to further support legalize workers shows how dependent the Thai economy is on cheap migrant labor. Activists have claimed that this might support better working conditions and reduce human trafficking. (Press TV)

The Thai navy has signed an agreement with Atlas Elektronik in Germany to purchase a SeaFox mine neutralization submersible drone systems. The various units will support training and exploration in addition to a small number of units for actual mine disposal. The fiber-optic guided “one-shot” SeaFox C is a vehicle used for destroying mines by automatically locating identified targets and other underwater ordnance within minutes of programming.  The target can also be destroyed with on-board explosive charges. Other navies using The SeaFox system include: the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Estonia, Finland, the United Kingdom, the United States, Japan and Germany (UPI). The Thai Navy remained in the news this week when Cambodian troops fired at a Thai navy helicopter which was delivering food to a military base in Trat province, near the Cambodian border. No one was injured. Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul claimed the shooting was a misunderstanding on both sides and the incident will be further investigated. (Bangkok Post)