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Summary
Wading deeper into controversy, the Truth for Reconciliation Commission of Thailand (TRCT) has called for reforming the lese majeste law to foster reconciliation and prevent abuse for political gains. Meanwhile, Thailand’s two largest political parties continue to exchange rhetorical attacks on one another over the sincerity of their intentions in the reconciliation process. Also, Thailand’s Film Censorship Board recently banned a Thai-language adaptation of Shakespeare’s Macbeth, citing its allegedly politically divisive content. In economic news, inflation during the month of March increased 3.45 percent over last year, exceeding expectation and representing a larger increase than February. However, in a bit of good news, a new survey says that spending during the upcoming Songkran celebration will be up 7 percent from last year. On the security front, Thai authorities are beefing up security nation-wide in preparation for Songkran and following the deadly blasts in the South that killed 14 and injured hundreds. Police have already made arrests but are still seeking more suspects believed to be involved in the car bomb attacks.
Politics
After a short trip to southern Thailand due to the increased violence over the weekend, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra left for Phnom Penh to attend the 20th Summit of the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Speaking about the bombings, particularly in the tourist town of Hat Yai, the prime minister announced that her government will compensate all families of the dead and agreed with her Malaysian counterpart, Najib Razak, to step up border security and increase cooperation on intelligence sharing to prevent dual-nationality holders from exploiting their status to create trouble in the region. Outgoing ASEAN secretary general Surin Pitsuwan confirmed that “the Malaysian and Thai prime ministers held unofficial talks on this issue and ASEAN hopes things will return to normal soon.” Concurrently, Ms. Yingluck took the initiative on arguing for a more proactive role of ASEAN in security matters and to increase their interconnectedness. Regional security issues and transboundary crimes will need regional attention, thus requiring ASEAN’s attention, she contended. Thai government officials proposed maritime security and environmental protection as cooperative regional issues that could help gain trust and confidence among member states. On the sidelines of the event, Prime Minister Yingluck also congratulated Myanmar on their by-elections of April 1, which saw Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy secure 40 of the 44 seats it contested. Yingluck stated that, “The election has been very clear and peaceful so I think that is good for ASEAN.” (Bangkok Post) (Mcot) (The Nation) (AsiaOne)
As in the past two weeks, reconciliation debate continued to attract a fair amount of national media attention. The Truth for Reconciliation Commission of Thailand (TRCT) released its latest report, renewing its call for more open-mindedness amid recurring animosity on both sides of the political divide after recent parliamentary debates. Besides identifying inequalities in the power structure and the management and attitude of the military as complicating factors, the TRCT also argues for changing the lese majeste law. In its current form it would represent an “obstruction to reconciliation” and be misused by political forces, resulting in more division between the two sides. Concurrently, the Pheu Thai Party and Democratic Party continued to deepen their differences while debating the adoption of the King Prajadhipok’s Institute’s (KPI) report. Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva continued to voice his opposition towards the selective adoption of the report warning of a coming “war of reconciliation”, a term previously used by the KPI itself. Deputy Premier and Interior Minister Yongyuth Wichaidit was quick to respond, reasoning that the Democrats would try and distort the majority rule stating, “we don’t ignore the minority. The majority decides, and listens to the minority. That’s it.” Pheu Thai spokesman Prompong Nopparit urged the public not to pay too much attention to the Democrats concerns, as they would oppose anything Pheu Thai proposes. Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva wants Pheu Thai to prove it is doing reconciliation for the good of the people and not to whitewash former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. He also proposed to exclude him as well as deputy Democrat leader Suthep Thaugsuban and Thaksin Shinawatra from receiving legal immunity, adding, “Let’s prove the proposed reconciliation. If the exclusion of the three of us can make a contribution, then our country should move forward.” (Bangkok Post)
A former member of the coup-installed National Legislative Assembly, Prapan Khononmee, used air time on the yellow-shirt satellite channel ASTV to launch speculation about a possible switch of prime minister during the next government reshuffle. Mr. Prapan claimed that current Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra would step down next month and make room for Gen Sonthi Boonyaratkalin, chairman of the reconciliation committee and 2006 coup leader, to take over. Gen Sonthi quickly and explicitly tried to choke off any speculation stating, “This is nonsense. There is no likelihood of that.” (The Nation) (Bangkok Post) (AsiaOne)
International media outlets picked up on censors in Thailand banning a Thai language adaptation of Macbeth called Shakespeare must die. The Film Censorship Board issued a statement arguing that the film “has content that causes divisiveness among the people of the nation”, leading to speculation that the political imagery used attracted the censors’ attention. The movie trailer uses images of the 1973 crackdown on students and the 2010 protests to bring the Shakespearean story of a power-hungry general in ancient Scotland who kills the king for his throne, and commits more murders to hold onto it, closer to a Thai audience. Director Ing Kanjanavanit expressed her surprise saying, “I was shocked. I didn’t expect this film to be banned.” While Ing stayed true to Shakespeare’s use of the color red depicting murder in the play, this color is associated with the 2010 protesters and Thaksin supporters in Thailand. Ing defended her use of the color stating, “Red is the universal color for killer. In Thai soap operas the bad guys wear red, so why am I not allowed to use it?” Shakespeare must die is the second movie to be banned in Thailand under the 2008 Film Act after Tanwarin Sukkhapisit’s Insects in the backyard. Ing Kanjanavanit is a controversial figure among the Thai art community, having also been responsible for the production of the feature My Teachers Eat Biscuits which has never been publicly shown in Thailand and its première was raided by police in 1997. Ing is expected to appeal against the decision, adding “I asked the committee which part of the film fits that verdict and how I should go back to fix it, but they cannot tell me which scene. This is a Shakespeare story. It’s a tale of greed and lust for power. Since we’re banned, I wonder if Thai film-makers are allowed to have opinions, to criticize and to reflect on the reality of the situation.” (Reuters) (BBC) (Asia Sentinel) (The Wall Street Journal) (Al Jazeera)
Economics
The Thai baht dropped down to a two–month low, by 0.6 percent, to 31 baht per US dollar on Wednesday, April 4, after the US Federal Reserve signaled that the United States economy is not likely to need further monetary easing, pulling back investors’ sentiments toward the US dollar. The Thai government bonds also dropped while interest-rate swaps rose after official data showed fast rise in March’s annual inflation on Tuesday. (Bangkok Post)
Thailand’s inflation accelerated unexpectedly in March, mainly resulting from high oil prices, according to data released on Tuesday, April 3, by the Ministry of Commerce. The general consumer price index (CPI) increased 3.45 percent from last year to stand at 114.30 in March, faster than the 3.35 percent increase recorded in February. The inflation rate in March quickened for the first time in the past five months and largely exceeded economists’ expectations of 3.2 percent. The core CPI, excluding fresh food and fuel prices, for March rose 2.77 percent, boosting the first quarter’s average core CPI to increase by 2.74 percent from last year. The price index for food and beverage rose 7.07 percent, and the price index for non-food and beverage also went up 1.23 percent annually in March. (Bangkok Post) (RTTNews)
A survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) has forecasted spending during the Songkran festival to reach 100 billion baht, 7 percent rise from the previous year, which is a new record high in six years. According to Thanavath Phonvichai, an economist at the university,
most spending during the festival from April 13 to 17 will be used for celebration, consumption, making merit, and travel. The minimum wage hike, which is taking effect now, is also expected to encourage more spending during the holiday. The survey found that most people plan to travel domestically, while 14 percent of people surveyed plan to travel abroad, which the popular destinations are Hong Kong, Japan, China and Malaysia. (Bangkok Post) (The Thai Financial Post)
Ethanol producers in Thailand are seeking export markets after constantly changing government policies have left domestic sales far below expectations and raised doubts about ambition to make the country an Asian hub for fuel. Deputy Director of the Energy Policy Planning Office, Nathie Thabmanie, stated Thailand aims to be a regional fuel hub and have potential to produce, since it has plenty of raw materials to supply to the ethanol industry while fuel plants are running now at half capacity. Thai ethanol exports tripled from 2010 to 2011 after a government’s move to cut fuel prices by removing levies on some gasoline, diminishing the drivers’ incentive to switch to the cleaner fuel. As domestic demand is low, ethanol producers are trying to export the surplus production by targeting traditional fuel importers such as South Korea and Japan as well as a new potential importer like the Philippines. (Reuters)
The Energy Ministry is expected to raise petrol retailers’ contribution to the Oil Fund by an additional 1 baht per liter, while it will increase the price of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for transportation sector by 75 satang per kilogram to ease the burden on the fund. The decision will be announced at the end of this month. (The Nation)(The Thai Financial Post)
The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) announced that the private sector would like the government to set up a 1 billion baht fund to enhance the SME entrepreneurs’ capacity and encourage them to invest overseas in order to minimize the impact of the recent 300 baht minimum wage hike and brace for the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). Also, the FTI proposed that the Board of Investment of Thailand (BOI) increase special incentives to urge Thai investors to invest more in the neighboring countries. Meanwhile, the Thai Credit Guarantee Corporation (TCG) is ready to extend more loan guarantees to SMEs and low-income people, whose loan requests were rejected by financial institutions. According to the Chairman, Santi Vilassakdanont, the TGC will also provide loan advice to Thai SMEs and support them in planning to invest abroad in order to help strengthening their ability to compete in the AEC. (The Thai Financial Post)
The National Broadcasting and Telecommunication Commission (NBTC)has promised to prevent any possible legal loopholes relating to the planned 3G auction in order to discourage attempts by any parties to disrupt the auction. NBTC commissioner Suthiphon Thaveechaiyagarn stated at a seminar on the legal aspects of the watchdog’s master plans and the 3G spectrum auction that the commission would ask potential bidders to vow that they would bid on a transparent basis. The NBTC aims to auction the 2.1-gigahertz spectrum license in either the third or fourth quarter this year to provide 3G broadband cellular service after the plan was suspended in September 2010. The commissioner was confident that, this time, the NBTC is fully authorized to auction the new spectrum licenses, based on the 2010 Frequency Allocation Law. (The Nation)
The European Union reached a consensus to allow import of Thai fresh chicken after eight years ban since January 2004 due to the bird-flu outbreak. However, Thai fresh chicken has to come under an export quota and comply with the EU restrictions. Thailand’s trade association had predicted that exports would increase slightly by 3.78 percent to 180,000 tons of fresh chicken worth 64.11 billion baht this year. Now only Brazil can access the EU market; therefore, Thailand will become second country to export fresh chicken meat to the region. (The Nation)
The peaceful development and opening-up of Myanmar has the business community wondering about the consequences for the Thai labor market. Migrants form Myanmar currently make up one quarter to one third of all lower-skilled or minimum wage workers in Thailand, earning 30 to 50 percent less than their Thai colleagues. Andy Hall, a Bangkok-based migrant and trafficking rights activist at Mahidol University’s Institute of Population and Social Research, concluded that the Thai government might have to focus on attracting labor from other countries such as Vietnam, Nepal, or Bangladesh because 95 percent or more of the migrants from Myanmar could return home. Hall’s opinion got support from a recent research note from the New York-based risk consulting firm Eurasia Group, which argued for a “tightening of the labor market over the next few years with fewer Burmese laborers willing to migrate.” Higher labor costs are therefore a likely probability for manufacturers in Thailand and elsewhere in the region. (The Wall Street Journal)
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has urged provincial governors to promote the best-known agricultural items of their provinces as a part of the solution for falling agricultural product prices. Ms.Yingluck is positive that various researches from ecological studies in waterfront areas assigned to the governors to create long-term environmental development plans would help improve agro-products; moreover, One Tambon One Product (OTOP) items should boost the country’s economic potential. (The Thai Financial Post)
Security
Following the deadly bombings in Hat Yai and Yala last week, Thai authorities are warning of more possible attacks and are on the lookout for five stolen pickup trucks that insurgents might use as car bombs. On Monday, after the bombings, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra flew to Hat Yai to visit victims of the bombing and consult with authorities. Speaking to the media she said, “I have told all agencies and all ministries to get serious about security and [we] will convene a meeting to discuss the overall situation to make people confident.” (Asia One) (Bangkok Post) (New Straits Times)
In response to the attacks, authorities at the local and national levels have ordered increased security in the region and at key points nationwide. Transport Minister Jarupong Ruangsuwan said the Airports of Thailand (AOT) has raised its security alert to Level 3, under which vehicles visiting its airports are checked at random.This measure goes into effect at Suvarnabhumi, Don Mueang, Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai, Phuket and Hat Yai airports. As well, the Civil Aviation Department is on Level 4, its maximum alert, at its 28 provincial airports, which requires that all vehicles visiting airports must be checked. Transport Co. has stopped taking unattended packages aboard its inter-provincial buses and is deploying more security guards at its bus terminals in Bangkok. In Hat Yai police have installed 400 security cameras and will bring in K-9 sniffer units to patrol sensitive areas. Additionally, National Security Council will consider whether the executive decree on public administration in emergency situations should be exercised in Hat Yai district (Asia One) (Free Malaysia Today) (Voice of America) (Bangkok Post)
Police have issued several arrest warrants for suspects believed to be involved in the attacks and have arrested three of them. National Police Chief General Priewphan Damapong revealed that there was solid evidence against one of the men arrested and added that it was believed that the suspect might have been involved in the attack on the Lee Gardens Plaza Hotel in Hat Yai. One of the suspects, Samlee Puluduereh, was arrested on Tuesday on charges of terrorism, attempted murder, and possessing explosives. He is suspected of planting a roadside bomb in Pattani, one of the many bomb attacks on Saturday. The other is Anuwat Tohjeh, 22, a Yala resident, who was seen on security camera video driving a vehicle following a pickup that was used in the Yala attack. He has denied any involvement. (The Nation) (Bangkok Post)
Worries over security have led to massive cancellations of hotel bookings in the South, prompting concerns about the economic damage of the bomb attacks and the consequences for those whose livelihoods will be directly affected. Somchart Pimthanapoonporn, head of the Songkhla Tourism Business Council and the Hat Yai-Songkhla Hoteliers Association, estimated that it will take three to six months for the situation to return to normal. Reflecting the worries of the private sector, he opined, “Operators not only in tourism but also other businesses are not confident in the security standard of the government”. Tanit Sorat, vice-chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), expressed concern that tourism in other popular sites, such as Krabi or Phuket, will be affected too. To counter these concerns, officials are establishing safety zones with intensified security in the South. These zones are not a new practice for the Thai government, but enforcing them in populated urban areas is unprecedented. The purpose of such zones is to restore peoples’ confidence and allow small businesses to continue trading. (Bangkok Post) (Asia One)
Analysts have observed the disturbingly high sophistication of the operation compared to previous insurgent attacks. The Saturday bombings represent the insurgents’ first successful coordinated attack using several car bombs in populated urban areas where security was supposedly strong. In the Hat Yai attack, they used tactics such as building a bomb out of a gas tank and placing it in the passenger seat to avoid detection by hotel guards who only check the trunk. Panitan Wattanayagorn, a security analyst at Chulalongkorn University, noted the insurgents’ improved tactics: “The capability of these people although [sic] when you look at the bombs is not that different but the ability to coordinate several bombs at the same time is something quite new.” Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul concurred with this sentiment when he said of the attacks, “Right now it seems to us that it’s more professional, the way they do it.” Analysts also point to the rise in violence in the South over the previous months and a general trend of increasing sophistication in the use of explosives and tactics since 2005. The Saturday bombings, then, could be seen in the context of an escalation of violence in the South. (Asia One) (The Sun Daily) (Voice of America)
In light of the bombings in the South and in preparation for the upcoming Songkran holiday, authorities in Songkla, Bangkok, and Chiang Mai, are ratcheting up security measures. National Police Advisor Pol Gen Chatchai Potranan told the media that in order to rebuild tourist confidence during the Songkran holidays, police will deploy 1,000 security personnel and institute security measures such as checkpoints on four main roads and at least 40 minor roads on a 24-hour basis.Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) City Law Enforcement Department director Kramol Olarawat stated they will mobilise 1,240 law enforcement personnel from the city’s 50 district offices to assist police in providing security and to help drivers during Songkran. Chiang Mai Governor Panadda Disakul said the province increasing security at all entry points to the province, including road, rail, and air. (Thailand Business News) (Pattaya Mail)
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