PDF Version

Summary

The cabinet’s decision to end Parliament on June 19 and effectively postpone further deliberation on the amnesty law and amendments to the national charter have disappointed and enraged redshirt supporters. However, it appears that the ruling Pheu Thai party has calculated that delaying the issue is in the government’s interest, as passions have run high on the issue, resulting in recent demonstrations, such as the anti-government protest that prevented MPs from entering Parliament earlier this month.

According to the Public Debt Management Office (PDMO), Thailand’s public debt has reached 42 percent of the Kingdom’s gross domestic product. Recent borrowing for flood prevention projects has added to Thailand’s public debt. The current debt ceiling is 60 percent of gross domestic product.

While the government says the security situation in the South is improving, Thailand’s cabinet approved another three-month extension of the emergency decree from June 20 to September 19. Meanwhile, violence continued this week as there were two more fatal bombings and one fatal shooting in Narathiwat province.

Politics

The Thai cabinet accepted a royal decree to end the current Parliament session on June 19, thus effectively postponing deliberation on the proposed amnesty law and amendments to the constitution until Parliament opens again in early August. After the Pheu Thai Party had held a strategic meeting, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra agreed with the recommendations made and decided to delay voting on the constitutional amendment bill. She later announced that she would press on about the charter change bill but stated that the government would have to wait for the right time.(Bangkok Post)

The decision to delay voting drew fierce criticism from leading red-shirt MPs, such as Deputy Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister Nattawut Saikuar, who announced that this would ultimately lead to government supporters turning away from the party. His red-shirt colleague and fellow Pheu Thai list MP Korkaew Pikulthong agreed and reminded Pheu Thai leaders that the decision was tantamount to admitting defeat of the legislative branch to the judiciary. He did show at least understanding for the announcement though stating, “We (the red-shirts in Pheu Thai) understand the decision and are willing to swallow the blood once again and remain patient.  But, we want to let it be known that our patience also has a limit.” (Asia One) (Bangkok Post)

Prime Minister Yingluck thus decided to give politicians a cooling off phase after opposition leaders had previous already warned that the country would plunge into a political crisis if the government would not follow the constitutional court decision to delay the third reading of the charter change bill. Democrat Songkhla MP Wirat Kallayasiri even went so far as comparing Thai democracy turning to dictatorial rule like Germany’s Adolf Hitler if the charter amendment bill was passed. A half-hearted attempt to reach a debate over the court’s order and if parliament had to comply with it was defeated as the proposed motion did not gain enough votes. Some members of the coalition government were absent and thus unable to cast their vote. The government’s legal adviser Atchaporn Jaruchinda announced that the Council of State has been directed to write to the Constitutional Court to clarify possible misunderstands regarding the charter rewrite, especially that the constitutional monarchy will be left untouched following the amendment. The court meanwhile scheduled July 5-6 to begin its investigation into accusations that the charter amendments would (Bangkok Post) (Reuters) (Wall Street Journal)

Prime Minister Yingluck went on a four-day trip to eight provinces to check on flood prevention and mitigation measures, as well as the timeliness of those projects. Ms. Yingluck announced after her inspection that she was generally satisfied but some projects in the North were behind schedule. Canal dredging in the midstream and downstream areas were 60-70% complete and she was thus sure that all projects would finish on time. Notwithstanding the government’s efforts, Prime Minister Yingluck was not able to assure that there will be no flooding this year as the amount of water cannot be verified yet. Science and Technology Minister Plodprasob Surasawadee, on the other hand, asserted that Bangkok will definitely not be flooded this year as canal dredging work was on time, and canals could therefore be used as waterways. Ten flood-hit districts in Surat Thani meanwhile have been declared disaster zone on Monday, June 18. Floods there have affected more than 12,000 households and damaged critical infrastructure. During her trip the prime minister also received complaints from flood victims about unfair flood compensations handed out.  (Mcot) (The Nation) (Bangkok Post)

While Pheu Thai Party spokesman Prompong Nopparit denied there would be a cabinet reshuffle in June, reports are increasing that changes in the cabinet are imminent. Several of the former Thai Rak Thai executives have already been linked with ministerial posts. Chaturon Chaisaeng is linked with a move to become education or interior minister with the current ministers – Suchart Thada-Thamrongvech (education) and Yongyuth Wichaidit (interior) – losing their posts. Further speculations include Prime Minister Yingluck becoming the first female defense minister, but has so far denied any comment on the issue, stating that flood prevention and water management would be her current priorities. A class 10 source announced that some of Thaksin’s class 10 friends would be disappointed with this move as they hope to be awarded the defense minister position. Yingluck’s appointment would strengthen the government’s position in the military’s reshuffle committee though, as the number of the committee would rise to seven due to the defense ministry’s appointment of a deputy minister to Yingluck. The government currently holds two (defense minister and the defense permanent secretary) of the six seats in the committee. (Bangkok Post)

Economics

Thailand’s public debt ratio is currently at 42 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and likely to rise to 45 percent by the end of this fiscal year in September, according to the Public Debt Management Office (PDMO) director-general Chakkrit Parapanthakul. The debt ceiling of 60 percent of the GDP has been set by the government, which represents the highest level the country can handle. The government’s borrowing plans include 100 billion baht for offsetting the current account deficit, 10 billion baht for the natural catastrophe fund, and 50 billion baht for flood-prevention construction. The budget deficit has gradually been rising during the past decade.  Respected economists, such as the former finance minister Dr. Somkid Jatusripitak and Dr. Bhanupong Nidhiprabha, dean of Thammasat University’s economics faculty, suggest that the government must address the rising level of public debt and cut populist spending to free up funding for investment in infrastructure projects. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)

Industrial confidence has stayed high despite the concerns that euro-zone crisis is beginning to weigh on Thai exports. According to the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), export growth of 15% remains feasible for 2012 as manufacturers adjust to the euro-zone crisis. The Thai Industries Sentiment Index (TISI) rose for the sixth consecutive month and reached 106 points in May. On the other hand, the Bank of Thailand lowered its 2012 export growth target to 8 percent on Tuesday June 19. Despite good sentiment, there are still some concerns about rising costs, labor shortages, political issues and the euro-zone crisis. Meanwhile, The Commerce Ministry is encouraging Thai business operators to invest abroad instead of depending on importers in Europe and promoting exports to healthier European economies such as Germany and France. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)

The National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) is expected to enact revised regulations to prevent foreign dominance of telecom operators into effect in August. Mr. Darmp Sukontasap, chief corporate affairs officer of Total Access Communication (DTAC), expressed his concern in the second public hearing on the draft of the revised regulations that rules might be exploited to affect the NBTC’s planned 3G license auction. There are only three bidders expected to be in the auction. Advanced Info Service (AIS) has Singapore Telecom as its strategic partner, while DTAC is partnering with Norway’s Telenor. True Corp is the only local telecom operator without a foreign strategic partner. If one of these is affected by the revised rules, there will only be two bidders. In this case, there would be no competition in the bidding and the NBTC might decide to abort the auction. He added that Thailand already had many existing laws to control foreign dominance in the telecom sector. DTAC had also filed a complaint with the Central Administrative Court last November claiming the existing foreign-dominance regulations were illegal and unconstitutional. (The Nation) (Bangkok Post)

The northern-end of east runway of Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi Airport is under maintenance from June 11 until August 9. The Airports of Thailand (AOT) has promised that the primary international airport can retain its normal operations during the maintenance process. Despite the claims by airline operators that the runway repairs have caused air traffic congestion and flight delays, the AOT denied that the delay caused by the runway maintenance was only 30-40 minutes on average, which was not beyond the standard. Meanwhile, the Cabinet approved a budget of 1.6 billion baht to renovate Bangkok’s old airport, Don Mueang, on Tuesday June 19. The budget will cover the improvement of east and west runway surfaces and infrastructure. After the renovation, Don Mueang will be ready for low-cost airlines and serve both domestic and point-to-point international flights. Furthermore 14 airlines, including Thai AirAsia, are expected to operate at Don Mueang Airport, which will unofficially reopen in August and officially in October. The reopening of Don Mueang is also projected to help easing the number of passengers at the Suvarnabhumi airport by 7-8 million per year. (MCOT online news) (Thailand news) (The Nation)

Security

This week, Thailand’s cabinet approved the extension of the executive decree for administration in emergency situations in the three southern border provinces of Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat for another three months, from June 20 to September 19. In trying to frame the situation positively, government deputy spokesman Anusorn Iamsa-ard said that while the move is necessary, the overall situation is improving. This, however, comes amid continuing violence in the three southernmost provinces. (Bernama) (Bangkok Post)

Three serious security incidents took place in Narathiwat province this week.  On Tuesday, a gunman riding pillion on a motorcycle shot and killed two officials of the Bang Por Tambon Administrative Organization in Narathiwat town.  That evening, in Si Sakhon district, 100kg bomb made of two gas cylinders, which had been buried under the road, exploded as an armored police car passed over it while on patrol. The force of the blast ripped through the vehicle, killing one policeman and severely injuring two others inside. Authorities believe a rebel group led by Bangsop Tolueno is responsible for the attack. On Thursday morning, a bomb buried beneath the road exploded as security forces were escorting teachers to a school in Sukirin district. The blast seriously injured one police officer and slightly wounded a nearby civilian. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra convened a meeting with the ministers of foreign affairs, science and technology, and defense, as well as heads of the armed forces, which agreed to allow the National Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA) of the United States of America to use the U-Tapao airport in Rayong province for climate surveys. Thai News Agency said that officials determined that the proposal would not affect national security, and it would in fact help with flood prevention efforts. However, there are still holdouts from some of the concerned agencies, and the cabinet has not yet given formal approval. NASA has given the Thai government a deadline of next Tuesday or else it will withdraw its request, citing the need to move equipment and teams into place by August.  (Bernama) (The Nation)

Meanwhile, another US proposal to allow American military personnel to set up a humanitarian relief assistance center is still being considered. The proposal is also not without its holdouts and critics. Khien Theeravit, a China expert and Chulalongkorn University’s emeritus professor on political science, said that accepting the American proposals would be viewed suspiciously by Chinese officials. Moreover, he contends it would put Thailand in the middle of a larger power struggle between China and the US, and upset relations within ASEAN. (Bangkok Post)

Deputy Lampang governor Suwan Klaosunthorn, who is in charge of security affairs in the province, has disclosed that anti-Lao government rebels are active in Soem Ngam and Ngao districts of Lampang province. Mr. Suwan said that the rebels were operating a mining business in the jungle as a front for their operations. He expressed suspicion that these groups might be involved in illegal activity in the North, such as drug trafficking, and therefore urged officials to keep a close watch on the movement. These districts were previously home to Thailand’s communists in the 1970s, and many of the former insurgents purportedly still hold influence in the area.  (Bangkok Post)

In an effort to crack down on inter-school violence in Bangkok, The Office of the Vocational Education Commission is drawing up more punitive measures for students involved in school brawls. “Our existing measures aren’t tough enough, which explains why we are still unable to solve the student brawl problem,” Chaipreuk Serirak, Ovec secretary-general, said after a three-hour meeting with vocational institution executives. Mr. Chaipreuk said he asked executives to come up with new ways to stop school violence, such as with increased preventative measures like random weapons searches. This move comes after a fatal shooting in which a group of Don Muang Technical College students shot at rivals from Thaivichitsilp Art School on a bus on Vibhavadi Rangsit Road last week, killing two passengers and wounding two others. Police have since arrested one suspect who has confessed to being involved in the shooting. According to local sources, inter-school violence has plagued that bus route for several years, causing passengers to be fearful of riding the bus. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)

An outbreak of the H1N1 virus has been reported at a psychiatric hospital in Nakhon Ratchasima province. There are 41 people reported to have contracted H1N1, also known as “swine flu”, but officials are saying that the situation is under control. Six have been treated and allowed to return home, while the remaining patients are in quarantine. An initial investigation revealed that a hospital worker contracted the virus from his daughter, who then transmitted the disease to patients in an alcoholism ward. Since these patients have weaker immune systems, the disease spread rapidly. However, so far the virus has not been found anywhere else outside the hospital. (The Nation)

Following the recent discovery of widespread cheating on a recent police exam, an expanding investigation into test irregularities in several other entrance exams for government professions has revealed cheating is widespread, but most especially common within the Royal Thai Police. Police say they have arrested 32 suspects involved in organized cheating. These suspects include other police officers and civil servants. As well, authorities have confiscated laptops belonging to the suspects, which investigators say contain names of several customers who paid the gang for help to cheat on state recruitment exams. One laptop confiscated in Nakhon Ratchasima indicates that the cheating gang’s activities have gone one for at least three years.  Such revelations raise serious doubt about the integrity of state recruitment exams and the overall quality of recruits. (The Nation) (Bangkok Post)