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Summary
The Constitutional Court’s ruling on the constitutionality of the charter amendments and whether efforts to push them through amounted to toppling the monarchy resulted in a surprisingly even-handed denouement. For the moment, it seems Thailand’s politics has stepped back from the precipice. However, Pheu Thai declares it will seek amendments in some form, while the Democrats are still poised to resist.
Prime Minister Yingluck visited Germany this week to negotiate a free-trade agreement between Thailand and the European Union. The trip comes among reports that the Eurozone debt crisis could impact Thailand’s economic growth between 0.5 and 1.0 per cent. In other economic news, tourism numbers from the first six months of 2012 show that numbers of tourists in Thailand are up 7.6% compared to last year. Chinese tourists, for the first time, make up the single largest group, overtaking Malaysian tourists. Despite the Eurozone crisis, tourism from Europe has not dropped.
Violence continued in Thailand’s restive South, with attacks occurring in Narathiwat and Pattani that claimed seven lives. Also, on Thailand’s contentious border area with Cambodia, Thailand has begun withdrawing troops from around Preah Vihear. The move is in compliance with an order from the International Court of Justice. As part of the plan, Indonesia will send military observers, however this part remains subject to the approval of the Thai government and Parliament.
Politics
Analysts on all sides generally agreed that the Constitutional Court ruling defused a potential political crisis in Thailand. The ruling essentially limited Parliament’s ability to amend the nation’s charter without a national referendum and dismissed complaints that the Pheu Thai-initiated constitutional amendment was a plot to overthrow the monarchy. In the verdict, judge Nurak Marpraneet read out that the constitution could either be amended section by section or rewritten through an elected assembly if a referendum is held beforehand to approve this step.
The government calls the current charter undemocratic as it was put in place in 2007 under an unelected interim government after a military coup. Chaturon Chaisang, a senior Pheu Thai member, for example, stated that the whole system was designed by the coup makers, blatantly evident in the role of the Constitutional Court’s rulings that asserted “the power to remove the prime minister, dissolve parties they don’t like – to overthrow governments they don’t like,” and therefore sums up the situation with the words “that’s not democracy”.
After the Constitutional Court ruling, though, even Korkaew Pikulthong, a red shirt leader, reacted somewhat positively, stating that the decision “has eased tension among the public, and that’s somewhat acceptable.” In the run up to the ruling Mr. Korkaew made headlines after announcing that red shirt supporters would not accept it if the charter amendment was ruled to be aimed at toppling the monarchy saying, “they will take action to get the court [judges] arrested. If police refuse to do that, the people will take the law into their own hands”. Everybody seemed to be moderately satisfied after the ruling as summed up in the words of Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee, an associate professor in the political science faculty at Chulalongkorn University who stated, “this is a ruling that keeps the balance between the opposition and the ruling party,” adding that she believes the support for the government would allow it to amend the whole charter after a positive referendum while the opposition could be happy because the process could now not be pushed through quickly.
While Pheu Thai spokesman Prompong Nopparit announced after the verdict that the government will “likely proceed with changing the constitution article by article,” others inside the party still want to go ahead with a complete rewrite leading to a party meeting to discuss further action. One thing everybody in the party seemed to agree on was that Article 68 of the charter should be amended first to bar the constitution court from accepting petitions directly from the general public, arguing that they should be screened by the Office of the Attorney-General first. Opposition Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva wants the government to drop its plans to amend the charter completely and focus instead on boosting the economy and focusing on flood mitigation. Pheu Thai leaders insisted though that they would go ahead with the charter amendment in some form. Proposed changes include stripping military officers of their immunity from prosecution and making the Senate fully elected – currently half of the seats are appointed.
Outside analysts and spectators are discussing possible effects of the ruling. The Nitirat group proposed a charter amendment to dissolve the Constitutional Court while Kanin Boonsuwan, a law lecturer at Chulalongkorn University argued the court would be overreaching its constitutionally-allowed powers by insisting on a nationwide referendum and advised the government that bowing to this threat would make the country undemocratic. Somjai Phagaphasvivat, a political science lecturer at Thammasat University, meanwhile fears that moving ahead without a nationwide vote might “invite more explosive protests from the other side”.
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was hesitant to comment, stating briefly that the government would consult the Council of State first before making any decisions. (Bangkok Post) (Reuters) (Wall Street Journal) (The Nation) (Huffington Post) (Businessweek)
American Joe Gordon, born Lerpong Wichaikhammat, who was first detained in May 2011 and later sentenced to two and a half years prison for lese majeste was freed by a royal pardon, the US Embassy in Bangkok announced on July 11. While his case grabbed the headlines in international newspapers, two more lese majeste cases sprung up this week with a lot less international publicity. Ekachai Hongkangwan is charged for distributing an Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) documentary about the future of the Thai monarchy as well as Wikileaks cables. Ekachai stated that the documents he sold were factual and thus not defamatory of the monarchy.
Ms. Thitinant Kaewchantranont, a 63 year old Thai woman currently resident of New Zealand, was arrested and admitted to hospital late last week after what allegedly making an “improper gesture” (no further information was yet given) towards an image of His Majesty the King outside the Constitutional Court. Due to Ms. Thitinant having a history of mental illness she was referred to Srithanya Hospital in Nonthaburi to certify if she was mentally ill. With her flight back to New Zealand together with her husband, a New Zealand national, scheduled for January 17, a group of yellow shirt protesters demonstrated at Suvarnabhumi airport to protest her departure while the airplane pilot refused to have her on board stating she would be a security risk. Ms. Thitinant did not show up at the airport though while her husband took the flight back. There was no clarification how the protesters or the pilot could have known about the case and who informed them.
(Washington Post) (Reuters) (Prachatai) (Bangkok Post)
In a cabinet meeting this week, two ministers in charge of flood prevention signaled differences over the urgency of projects as well as the regulatory framework involved. Natural Resources and Environment Minister Preecha Rengsomboonsuk argued that initial environmental examination (IEE) and subsequent environmental impact assessment (EIA), which would take at least six months or even a year to complete would have to be done before water catchment areas in provinces could be set up. Science Minister Plodprasob Surassawadee suggested to simply adjusting the IEE and EIA regulations so that the projects can be finished in time this year and be incorporated in the flood protection plan as the entire mechanism would fail otherwise. The government meanwhile announced that it will be able to announce to the public no later than next month which areas are at risk of flooding this year. Prime Minister Yingluck stated that “the accuracy of the forecasts may not be 100-per-cent precise, but will be based on analyses and expected to yield closest results”. Science Minister Plodprasob Surassawadee meanwhile accused the Democrat Party of derailing the planned weather study project by the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to hide that last years’ floods were a result of mismanagement by the previous government.
(Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
Economics
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, accompanied by the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Minister of Commerce and Industry, departed on Tuesday to Europe on an official visit to Germany and France with the aim of strengthening ties and cooperation between the countries. On Wednesday Prime Minister Yingluck and German Prime Minister Angela Merkel announced the acceleration of negotiations for a free-trade agreement between Thailand and the European Union. The trip comes among reports that the Eurozone debt crisis could impact Thailand’s economic growth between 0.5 and 1.0 per cent at most. Somchai Sajjapong, Director General of the Fiscal Policy Office, said that even though the export sector would be hurt by the crisis in Europe, total Thai exports would expand by 12.8 per cent this year. He further added that in the long-term, outside impacts to the country’s economy could be minimized by reducing the dependence on exports and increasing domestic consumption and investment, which the government has been trying to do. Meanwhile, the GDP was expected to grow 4.4 per cent in the second quarter of the year, a considerable increase from the 0.3 per cent of the first quarter. However, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) lowered its prediction for growth in the entire year to 5.6 per cent, down from 5.9 per cent, and the World Bank projected even only a 4.5 per cent increase. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
According to findings from a survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) and the Anti-Corruption Network, corruption has worsened in the country, with investors now needing to spend 30 to 35 per cent of a project’s budget as graft to win government jobs. This could mean that of the total 943 billion Baht budget estimated by UTCC for government land, building and equipment as well as investment by state enterprises, up to 330 billion could be lost to corruption. The situation is expected to grow even worse on account of the big budgets for upcoming infrastructure and water-management projects. The UTCC urged the government to increase transparency by sharing information on project tenders with the public. On Thursday the National Anti-Corruption Commission reacted by announcing that it would form a sub-committee to closely monitor the implementation of new flood-prevention projects in order to warn against and prevent corruption before it happened.
(Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
The Tourism Authority of Thailand released visitor figures for the first six months of the year. Despite concerns that tourism could be affected by 2010’s political instability or last year’s floods, the number of visitors was up 7.6 per cent from last year, reaching 10.5 million. The most notable increase was seen from Chinese tourists, reaching some 1.1 million and up 28.9 per cent from the same period last year. They are now the largest group of tourists traveling to Thailand, even eclipsing visitors from Malaysia, which traditionally have been the most numerous. Tourism and Sports Minister Chumpol Silpa-archa on Saturday also noted that the European debt crisis had no effect on tourism to Thailand so far, with numbers of visitors from European countries continuing to increase. He expected a total of around 20 million tourists to Thailand this year, up from 19.2 last year, resulting in revenue of 800 million baht, compared to 770 million in 2011. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
Concerns about inflationary effects were voiced by Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong regarding the planned floating of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices next month. The price caps for the transport and household sector subsidized by the State Oil Fund are subject to deregulation considering the aim of full market liberalization under the ASEAN community in 2015. Mr. Kittiratt warned that the inflation rate must be taken into account when increasing gas prices. Yanyong Phuangrach, permanent secretary of the Commerce Ministry, stated on Monday that the yearly inflation rate could climb by up to 0.11 per cent. He suggested the LPG price for the transport sector, accounting for only 20 per cent of Thailand’s gas use, to be floated first, with the household sector following gradually. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
The 300-Baht-minimum-wage law enacted in seven provinces on the 1st of April was deemed a failure, according to a new survey, at a press conference by the Thai Labour Reconciliation Committee on Thursday. The organizations chairman Chalee Loysung said that many employers haven’t complied at all or included social welfare payments in the wages in order to meet the new requirement. Some also threatened employees asking for raises with layoffs. Chalee accused the Labor Ministry of not acting on the problem and leaving it to the workers and their employers. According to a survey by the Committee, especially employees in the services as well as auto parts, jewelry and textile industry were affected. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
Security
An outbreak of viral hand, foot, and mouth disease was cause for the temporary closure of dozens of schools and the suspension of some classes in others in Bangkok. Deputy Governor Malinee Sukvejvorakij on Tuesday said that a total of 73 schools within the city have reported cases this year, but that the outbreak was under control. Public Health Minister Witthaya Buranasiri similarly stressed that there was “no need to panic”, as school shutdown was one of the required measures for curbing the disease. Schools in other provinces of the country were also affected in what is described as the highest incident of the disease in three decades. The outbreak is said to be now reaching its peak and expected to ease in four to six weeks. There have been no confirmed reports of deaths, unlike in neighboring Cambodia, where a more lethal strain of the disease is active. A proposal by the Public Health Ministry to take special measures for prevention and control has been approved by the cabinet. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation) (MCOT)
Thailand and Cambodia began pulling out military troops from the disputed border region around Preah Vihear temple and replacing them with police forces on Wednesday. The action is in compliance with the International Court of Justice’s order from a year ago, demanding demilitarization of the 4.6 km2 area around the Hindu temple claimed by both countries. The court will deliver a final ruling on the partition of the area in fall next year. In the meantime, Indonesian military observers are planned to move in. However, this is subject to approval by the Thai government and Parliament, which due to the internal political conflict has not yet been given. The Foreign and Defense Ministries are in the process of drafting the terms of reference for the deployment of the Indonesian intermediaries and expected to submit them to the government next week. (Al Jazeera) (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
There was no abatement of violence this week in the country’s southern provinces, as a number of attacks claimed seven lives. On Tuesday gunmen assaulted a military outpost in Narathiwat’s Rueso district, prompting soldiers and village defence volunteers to fight back. One soldier and two villagers did not survive the gunfight, two militants were also suspected to have died, but were carried away from the scene. At least another three soldiers and two civilians were wounded. Thursday morning, a security guard and a village defense volunteer were killed in separate incidents in Khok Pho district of Pattani. It was not clear whether the two attacks were related. Finally, an explosion from a 50kg car bomb injured eight and damaged commercial buildings in the Sungai Kolok border district of Narathiwat province. People from one of the buildings managed to flee the consequent fire to the roof and were saved by firefighters. (MCOT) (Bangkok Post) (The Nation) (Click here to view HDFF’s Southern Thailand Incident Map)
Early on Monday morning, more than fifty police officers ambushed armed drug smugglers in a mountain pass of Chiang Rai province in the very north of Thailand. When the smugglers resisted arrest, a firefight ensued in which eight of them were killed. Those who escaped were believed to have fled across the border into an area of neighboring Myanmar which, according to the Narcotics Control Office, is under control of a major drug maker. No officers were hurt in the skirmish. Methamphetamine tablets and crystal methamphetamine estimated at more than 500 million baht were found at the scene and a search for more was under way. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
Two weeks after soil subsidence caused major damage to several homes in a village along Chao Phraya River in central Ang Thong province, the people affected and their neighbors fear further damage as the cause of the problem, land erosion along the riverbank, wasn’t addressed to their satisfaction. While a temporary levee from more than 7.000 wooden posts was being erected with the help of military engineers, the residents demanded a more permanent solution from the government. Meanwhile, Nitat Poovatanakul, chief of the Department of Mineral Resources, said that such a project would be expensive as it would require foundations to be set as deep as 20 meters under the ground. He also stated that some elements of flood prevention such as river dredging and the construction of earth barriers in combination with damage from last year’s flood actually contributed to the land subsidence at the village. (Bangkok Post)
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