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Summary
The Pheu Thai party convened a seminar this week to discuss its plan regarding the charter amendment process, given the court’s recent ruling that Parliament could not make sweeping changes to it without a public referendum. The resulting mixed messages afterward, however, indicate that a consensus has still not been reached. Meanwhile, the Democrat Party is struggling with some of its key members being caught up in legal troubles of their own.
Worries over the Eurozone crisis are leading to reduced growth predictions in Thailand’s exports. At the same time, analysts note another worrying trend in that imports have risen in the first six months of this year. However, a positive consequence of such a slowdown is a relatively stable inflation rate, between 3.3 to 3.8 per cent for the rest of the year, as predicted by the Ministry of Commerce.
In Thailand’s south this week eight people have been reported killed and at least fourteen injured in nine separate incidents, marking a high point in the recent violence. A car bomb exploded at the CS Pattani hotel, injuring eight and causing blackouts. The Army has since raised the security level to its maximum in seven business districts of Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat and Songkhla.
Politics
Once all Pheu Thai leaders returned from Hong Kong, where they celebrated former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s 63rd birthday on July 26, the ruling party held a two-day seminar in Pattaya to debate the next move after the official publication of the judicial decision regarding the charter amendment. Public announcements still reflect a discrepancy concerning the best move forward as Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yubamrung reiterated that an amendment section by section would be his preference and followed up by proposing five amendments: (1)All senators should be elected, (2) abolition of the Ombudsman, (3) merging constitution and administrative courts and place them under the Supreme Court, (4) requiring national anti-corruption commission and Election Commission members to be selected, and (5) curb the Election Commission’s authority to give yellow or red cards to election candidates.
Pheu Thai legal adviser Chusak Sirinil, on the other hand, proposed to start by amending article 68 to stifle the constitutional court’s authority of intervening in any future charter rewriting process. Mr. Chusak added that Pheu Thai will attempt to rewrite the entire charter, which is in line with MPs from the Northeast who insisted at the Pattaya seminar that their constituents would like to see the party to continue their effort to rewrite the complete charter.
After the initial plan to revisit the third reading of the charter amendment bill as well as the reconciliation bill in the first session of Parliament on August 1, Pheu Thai backed off its plan after the Democrat Party and PAD urged them to withdraw the bills completely. As Pheu Thai has not agreed on a way forward and Parliament President Somsak Kiatsuranon asked the ruling party to withdraw the bills to ease tensions, the government decided to shelf the bills and move up ten other bills for consideration for the time being. After announcing to take the reconciliation bills off the agenda, PAD spokesman Parnthep Pourpongpan followed up by announcing that they would stage a mass rally, if the bills are taken up for debate again, with the goal of ousting the Yingluck government. Thaksin’s legal adviser Noppadon Pattama had previously announced that despite delaying the debates the government will never withdraw the reconciliation bills. The Prime Minister’s office meanwhile asked the King Prajadhipok Institute to invite all parties for nationwide forums on reconciliation, which the PAD instantly announced they would not join as the talks would have a “set agenda”. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation) (AsiaOne)
Former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, already in legal battles with red shirt leader Jatuporn Promphan, has entered legal battles with Defence Minister Sukampol Suwannathat and sued him for defamation after Sukampol accused Abhisit of evading military conscription in 1987 using falsified documents to secure his teaching position at Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy. Abhisit commented that no new evidence was brought up in this case in comparison to a military investigation into his records in 1999 and speculated that Sukampol had been “put under political pressure to frame me [Abhisit]”. Leaving the Abhisit case unmentioned, a Defense Ministry source said that it was not uncommon for sons of influential persons to have such documents forged for them adding, “Actually it’s rather normal”. (The Nation) (AsiaOne)
Key senior Democrat Party member Suthep Thaugsuban meanwhile had been found guilty by the National Anti-Corruption Commission for interfering in the work of permanent officials at the Culture Ministry in February 2009. If the senate approves the NACC ruling Suthep could be banned for five years and would likely lead to his official retirement from politics. Friends and colleagues in the Democrat Party insist though that a ban would not stop Suthep from political activities outside of parliament to keep his personal fight against Thaksin going. (Bangkok Post)
In the ongoing flood mitigation actions PM Yingluck Shinawatra announced after the Pattaya Seminar that 2,800 new dykes will be built by the end of August and a website is going to be set up in the coming weeks to provide the public with information about ongoing projects including technical details. (Bangkok Post)
Economics
Predictions of growth of Thai exports were trimmed once more over expectations that the European debt crisis was causing a significant decline in exports to countries of the Eurozone. Ath Pisalvanich of the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday projected the yearly growth of exports at 5.8 per cent, considerably lower than the Commerce Ministry’s 15 per cent target. Concerns grow among exporters that the situation in Europe might have a more serious effect on Thailand’s key foreign markets – China, Japan, and the ASEAN countries. Particularly at risk are garment, food, jewelry, and electrical equipment industries. Chulalongkorn University’s Associate Professor Paitoon Kraipornsak called on the government to accelerate spending on infrastructure and flood-prevention projects to match domestic private investment, which together with domestic consumption has been the major driver of the economy’s expanse. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
On a related note, analysts warned against further growth of the trade deficit which reached an all-time high of US$ 10 million for the first six months of the year. While exports lulled between January and June, imports expanded by 10 per cent in the same time, benefitting from reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts after the flood. (Bangkok Post)
The Thai government policy to pledge the acquisition of large quantities of rice – the country’s most important crop – from domestic farmers and selling them at a loss in lots has come under increased criticism by economists. Chalongphob Sussangkorn, a former finance minister and now fellow of the Thailand Development Institute, challenged the current policy as hurting exporters and lessening industry competition. The institute reported a dramatic reduction in rice exports as the government was stockpiling millions of tons of rice in warehouses. Expectations that the retention of stocks would lead to an increase in world prices have not played out. India and Vietnam now look poised to take over Thailand’s status as leading exporter of rice. (The Economist) (Bangkok Post)
The Ministry of Commerce announced that it was confident that this year’s inflation rate would remain between the targeted 3.3 to 3.8 per cent, after it reported a 2.73 per cent rise of the consumer price index in July, which was 0.4 per cent less than forecast. Yanyong Phuangrach, the Permanent Secretary of Commerce, attributed the positive outlook to the slowdown of economy worldwide as well as to price policing of goods and services. However, the main drivers of inflation were such essential goods as food and energy, whose prices increased well above the average. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
In an address in a seminar on Tuesday, Bank of Thailand Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul stressed that gross domestic growth is not the only factor for a country’s success, but that it needs to be stable, reflecting competitiveness, and accompanied by a high quality of life. He warned against growth through speculation and excessive debts and pointed out how Thailand’s GDP wasn’t matched by competitiveness. (The Nation)
Two chemical waste disposal plants in Chachoengsao were shut down after inspections by the Industrial Works Department found they had illegally-dumped untreated industrial waste and allowed contaminated water to leak from the plants. The province’s industry chief said the operators would lose their licenses and be legally persecuted. The full extent of illegal dumping was revealed when officials of the Department disclosed that of fourteen factories inspected so far, all have been found to violate regulations. Inspections are set to continue and cover a total of 96 waste disposal plants. (Bangkok Post)
Security
The violence in Thailand’s South saw a new high this week, further marking the aggravation of insurgent attacks since the onset of Ramadan on the 20th of July. Since Monday, eight people have been reported killed and at least fourteen injured in nine separate incidents. Among the attacks was a car bomb explosion hitting a hotel in Muang Pattani which left eight people slightly injured. It was followed by two other blasts taking out electricity transformers nearby and causing a blackout in parts of the district. The attack raised criticism about existing security measures as the hotel had already suffered a bombing four years ago. (Click here to view HDFF’s South Thailand Incident Map) (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
Following the hotel bomb blast, the level of security was raised to maximum in seven business districts of Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat and Songkhla by the Army. Police used posters to warn against specific vehicles reported stolen and believed to may be used in future attacks. Security measures have also been increased at airports and bus terminals. While the idea of imposing a curfew had initially been dismissed, Defence Minister Sukumpol Suwanatat announced that a curfew plan for the time after Ramadan was being drawn up and prepared for cabinet approval. To limit negative effects on the region’s economy, a major concern among residents whose businesses are already suffering from the dire security situation, the plan would only be extended to certain areas. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
Already on the weekend an attack on soldiers on motorcycles in Pattani leaving four dead drew extensive media attention when a video of the incident, captured by a hidden CCTV camera, was leaked by the police force of the province. Among greater coverage of the conflict and members of the opposition’s urging Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to take charge personally, she on Tuesday announced the formation of an operations center dealing with the unrest in the South. Its aim is to facilitate cooperation between the 17 ministries and state agencies involved in the situation by integrating them under three deputy prime ministers. Chalerm Yoobamrung, one of the three, has been specially assigned by Yingluck to work out solutions to the conflict. Additionally, the cabinet approved an extra emergency budget of 391 million baht for military operations in the region. On a less military-oriented note, Prime Minister Yingluck also suggested that more peaceful measures should be used to promote communication and understanding, such as state-owned TV channels running programs in the local language, Yawi. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
Defence Minister Sukumpol Suwanatat on Wednesday spoke about the Army being overburdened by responsibilities in the South. Among the duties he would like to be taken over by other agencies he listed administering security checkpoints and fighting the smuggling of drugs. He also brought up the possibility of sending aircraft to support the Army in the South, for instance in reconnaissance missions. (Bangkok Post) (MCOT) (The Nation)
In other security-related news, fires raged in Hat Yai, the Bangkok community of Ban Krua and a paper manufacturing plant within Nam Phong district this week. While no one was injured, the fires caused significant damage, and hundreds of residents had to be evacuated from chemical fumes in the Nam Phong fire. A short circuit was thought to have started the factory fire, while the causes for the other two fires were not initially known. (Bangkok Post)
Fears over the last weeks’ outbreak of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease have been curbed by doctors pointing out that most of the cases within Thailand were caused by a relatively mild strain of the disease. Thanyawee Puthanakij, associate professor at the Infectious Disease Division in Chulalongkorn’s Department of Paediatrics, said that of more than 17,500 cases reported until last Tuesday, only two had resulted in fatalities. It was also stressed that while work to develop a vaccine was underway, the disease was likely to occur every season, and that maintenance of hygiene standards helped suppress the spread of the disease. (The Nation)
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