HDFF Bi-Weekly Thailand Review 18/3 – 31/3
Ethnic Karen refugees at Ban Mae Surin camp carry their belongings as a huge fire burns at the camp on Friday evening (Source: The Nation)
Summary
In politics, a host of new controversies has dominated headlines. Human rights groups and the UNHCR are looking into reports that the Thai navy fired on Rohingyas as they swam back towards Koh Surin, where they had been docked after running out of supplies. Meanwhile, a deadly fire at Mae Surin refugee camp in Mae Hong Son province is being blamed on a deliberate attack by someone dropping flammable material from a helicopter that refugees reported seeing. Additionally, many are up-in-arms over the broadcasting of the final episode of Tob Jote on Thai PBS featuring a debate on Thailand’s lese-majeste law.
In economics, the numbers for February reveal falling exports in a year-on-year comparison due to the global economic situation and the appreciation of the baht. Little compensation is brought by the 5% increase in rice prices as the World Bank warns the Thai government not to sell off too large a chunk of the rice stored from the rice-pledging scheme to avoid price instability. Meanwhile, the Democrat opposition has criticized the government’s plan to borrow 2 trillion baht for infrastructure projects – views are divided about the transparency and efficiency of the mega loan that may exceed Thailand’s public debt ceiling.
In security news, the peace talks on 28 of March 2013 are seen as the first step in the process towards a peaceful environment in the Deep South of Thailand. While the participating members of Thai government and the representatives of the movements in the South were preparing for the peace talks, this event was overshadowed by the continuous violence in the South. There were several gun-attacks, bomb explosions and other disturbances through insurgents in the South in the last two weeks which caused numerous casualties. In the North of Thailand the long-lasting problem of human-trafficking is still not solved and activists advocate for protecting the victims. Furthermore there was another incident through a landmine on the Thai-Cambodian border, whereby a soldier was severely injured.
Politics
MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra has officially been endorsed as Bangkok governor by the Election Commission (EC) although investigations into complaints about election violations remain ongoing. EC secretary-general Puchong Nutrawong confirmed that the EC had received about 30 petitions alleging fraud and other violations. MR Sukhumband was under investigation due to speeches made by his fellow Democrat Party members accusing Pheu Thai candidate Pol Gen Pongsapat Pongcharoen of having connections with red shirts who “set fire to the city”. (Bangkok Post)
The Thai navy has come under fire from Human rights organizations and UNHCR after reports claimed that they fired shots at a boat carrying 133 Rohingyas last month near Phangnga province. The boat, which is supposed to have left Rakhine state on February 5 landed on Koh Surin because they ran out of water and food. According to accounts of rescued Rohingyas, translated by a villager in Phangnga who speaks Bangladeshi, the navy personnel were trying to transfer some Rohingya to another boat. However, in the process the Rohingyas became fearful that they would be trafficked and jumped the ship. They then heard gun shots but could not confirm if these were warning shots or aimed at killing those who swam away. While fishermen later reported seeing close to 20 bodies floating in the water, Pol Col Weerasin Kwancheng, superintendent of Kuraburi Police Station, only confirmed two bodies were found. He could furthermore not reveal if these were Rohingya because the bodies were already decayed and did not reveal any information from the autopsy. Third Fleet commander Vice Admiral Tharathorn Khachitsuwan strongly denied that any shots were fired and insisted that the navy follows government policy of feeding them and then pushing the boat out to sea again. Sunai Phasuk from Human Rights Watch explained that the rescued Rohingyas had meanwhile traveled to Malaysia while UNHCR believed that the boat reached Indonesia’s Aceh province on February 26 with 121 people on board.
In the north of Thailand meanwhile the Mae Surin refugee camp burned down on March 22 resulting in almost 40 deaths and more than 100 injured. First reports stated that a cooking accident led to the fire which quickly spread throughout the whole camp but refugees questioned after the incident speculated about a different cause. They told investigating officers that they heard a helicopter flying above the camp minutes before the fire started which dropped a burning object on the roof of a house in Zone 1 where the fire started. Joa Pa Hu, 26, the owner of the house where the fire was believed to have started, told police he was not at home when the blaze began but insisted that he did not leave a cooking fire burning when he went outside. One witness explained: “It was like someone setting fire to different corners of the camp. It spread quickly from section 1 to 4.” A member of the police forensics team confirmed that traces of phosphorus had been found in the grounds of the house where the fire was believed to have started. Khun Yuam district police chief Pol Col Nitinart Wittayawuthikul was transferred early Monday morning for alleged negligence in handling the case after an order signed from Mae Hong Son police chief Sompong Chingduang. Pol Col Nitinart claimed though that he was punished for not officially confirming that the fire was an accident. He was in turn excluded from the fire investigation team. The cause of the blaze remains under investigation. (The Nation) (Bangkok Post) (The New York Times) (The Washington Post)
Thai TV is hit by another scandal, weeks after Nua Mek 2 had been withdrawn by Channel 3, which is still under investigation. This time Thai PBS pulled the final episode of the show Tob Jote, a series focusing on the Thai monarchy. After withdrawing the episode from its scheduled timeslot the episode, which featured a debate on the lese majeste law between social critic Sulak Sivaraksa and Somsak Jeamteerasakul of Thammasat University, was suddenly aired 3 days later without notice. Thai PBS chief Somchai Suwanban stated that he had to take opposing views and safety of his staff into consideration and thus decided to pull the episode ahead of its scheduled airtime. Previously about 30 ultra-royalists protested and threatened PBS to take matters into their own hands if they fail to pull the show off the air. A committee of the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission has now been asked to investigate the case after senators questioned the appropriateness of the programme’s content. Army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha insisted too that the programme should not have been broadcasted and stated again that everybody who was not happy with the lese majeste law could simply leave the country. Tob Jote host Pinyo Trisuriyadhamma announced that he would cease production for Thai PBS and demanded an explanation for the axing of the programme although it was approved by the station’s policy committee. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
Kasem Nimmolrat’s sudden resignation, effective since March 13, sparked speculation regarding a possible replacement of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. Kasem held the house seat of Chiang Mai Constituency 3 and officially stated health reasons were the cause for his resignation but analysts pointed out that a legislative return by Yaowapa Wongsawat in the upcoming Chiang Mai by-election was the real cause. Yaowapa, older sister of PM Yingluck, has always had her stronghold in Chiang Mai Constituency 3 but was forced out because of a five-year ban as an executive member of the People’s Power Party. The reasoning behind an active role in politics as a simple MP remains pure speculation as Yaowapa already has significant influence over Pheu Thai politics and a seat in parliament would not give her more power. Analysts therefore speculate that Thaksin and Pheu Thai prepare for a possible replacement of PM Yingluck in case the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) strips her of her rank as Prime Minister due to a discrepancy in her assets declaration. According to financial statements provided by PM Yingluck she loaned 30 million baht to Ad Index Co Ltd., run by her husband Anusorn Amornchat, in 2006 but Ad Index’s records provide details regarding the loan for 2006 but instead state a 30 million loan for the year 2007. Furthermore, the information provided by PM Yingluck and Ad Index regarding the interest rate for the loan was not identical. It is thus believed that Yaowapa should act as replacement for PM Yingluck in case she is suspended after an unfavorable NACC ruling. (The Nation) (Bangkok Post)
Economics
Thailand’s exports for February had decreased by 5.8 % year-on-year due to the insecure global economic situation and the appreciation of the baht. The slowdown of key export markets such as US, the EU and Japan, led to a strong decline in both agro-industrial products (-20.2 % year-on-year) and frozen and processed shrimp (-22.2 % year-on-year). The decline in exports occurs despite the effects of the 2011-2012 floods on last year’s exports. On the positive side for exporters, prices on rice are up – a recent World Bank report says that despite the recent decline of prices on other food products extensive drought in some parts of the world has led to an increase of rice prices of 5 % in the past year. Although this could seem as good news for the Thai government, currently holding over two years’ worth of rice exports in stock following their rice-pledging policy, the sale of any significant amount of stored rice would lead market prices to fall and become volatile. Higher prices have also been recorded for tapioca, currently in high demand for its use in alternative energy. The higher prices may lead the Government to remove cassava pledging schemes as interest among farmers remains limited as long as prices are up. (Bangkok Post, World Bank, The Nation)
Discussions have been heated in the House as two days of deliberations over the proposed 2 trillion baht loan were opened. The Government hopes to borrow the money to invest heavily in infrastructure over the coming years, but the Democrat opposition questioned the plan, stating that the country did not need to borrow to cover the investments as the government could instead work out a budget deficit that would not breach the public debt ceiling. The bill was also criticized for its lack of transparency, especially as it was presented to the House without specifications on the actual projects that would be funded by the loan. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra however affirmed that the loan was a crucial step in spreading economic development and growth to more remote areas. More actors are however in favor of developing Thailand’s lacking infrastructure – the private company that owns Bangkok’s Skytrain aims to expand the current two-line system to a future 13 lines through an infrastructure fund. The company wishes to raise $2.1 billion in what might be the greatest share sale in Asia so far during this year. Academics have also been seen to side with the government on the infrastructure loan issue, as it has been argued that raising important funding will increase investors’ confidence that the projects can be completed and would ensure that Thailand does not lose future opportunities due to lacking infrastructure. (Bangkok Post, BBC)
Thailand’s most-used 20-baht banknote is about to undergo a makeover, although the size and motive remains the same, the note will be equipped with complex anti-counterfeiting features including a special watermark and an embedded security thread that changes color when tilted. The new notes will also be equipped with writing in Braille to make it possible for the blind to identify the note’s value. (Bangkok Post)
Security
The positive steps towards the development of a more peaceful environment in the South of Thailand with holding the peace talks on March 28 were overshadowed by numerous incidents through insurgents which caused numerous casualties.
A big number of the incidents took place in Pattani, where due to several gun attacks numerous people were killed or injured. On March 18 two men were killed by gun shots while travelling home by gunmen on motorcycles firing on them. On Friday afternoon, 22 of March, an assistant village headman was shot dead by a gunman in Yaring district of Pattani Province. Also on the next day, 23 of March, a local official was killed and another villager seriously wounded in drive-by shootings in Pattani province. Even in the past week there were gun-attacks, whereby a woman assistant village chief was killed and three other people were injured. Besides the gun-attacks there was also a fatal bomb explosion in downtown Pattani on March 21 which caused the injury of 10 people and the dead of a nine-year-old boy. The 5 kg bomb hidden in a motorcycle exploded in front of an ice-cream-shop. Further disturbances in Pattani were caused by insurgents who set fire on car tires in Panare district of Pattani province in the night of Thursday, 21 of March. The police believe that this was done by separatist militants. (Bangkok Post/ The Nation)
Also in other provinces of the Deep South of Thailand there were casualties of incidents in the last two weeks. On Sunday, 24 of March, a village security team member was killed and his wife seriously injured in a gun attack in Narathiwat. Another man, a local official, was seriously injured in Rueso district of Narathiwat province on Tuesday, 26 of March, when gunmen shot him while he was travelling on his motorcycle. There was also a bomb explosion in the southern border province of Narathiwat, whereby a bomb hidden in a cooking gas cylinder injured five soldiers on 23 of March. (Bangkok Post/ The Nation) In a clash between soldiers and rebels in Narathiwat province on 26 of March, two rangers were wounded and admitted to a hospital afterwards. During a search of the area after the clash a government patrol team found the dead body of a militant who obviously died during the clash. (The Nation)
Besides the fatal bomb explosion in Pattani, there were two more bomb explosions in the southern provinces past week. On Wednesday, 27 of March, a roadside bomb explosion in Yala’s Krong Pinang district caused the injury of six defense volunteers. The men were patrolling in a pickup truck when an improvised explosive device buried in the road and exploded under their vehicle. Two men were seriously wounded while two of them suffered lesser injuries. And also on the day of the peace talks, 28 of March, a 25 kg bomb exploded in Narathiwat’s Cho Airong district. The bomb devastated a joint team of 12 rangers while patrolling in this area. Three men were killed and five injured. The bomb was hidden inside a gas cylinder and planted near a power pole and was detonated remotely. It is believed that the bomb was placed by local militants who want to discredit the peace talks. (Bangkok Post)
In the face of the obviously ongoing violence in the South of Thailand the first round of the peace talks this Thursday, 28 of March, is seen as the first step in the further peace process. The peace talks were taking place at a police facility in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
Of the originally expected 15 insurgent representatives, six members of the BRN Coordinate, BRN Congress and Pattani United Liberation Organisation (Pulo) participated in the talks. Also the Thai delegation appeared with a smaller number to join the peace talks. Only nine of the original 15 members of the Thai delegation turned up in Malaysia for the peace dialogue yesterday. The nine members of the Thai delegation included National Security Council secretary-general Paradorn Pattanathabutr and South Border Provinces Administrative Centre director Tawee Sondsong, as well as former members of the police, the Army and civilians. There was no explanation given for the decreasing number of participants. Related to the outcomes of this event, a joint statement will be issued this Friday, it was not published at the time of this writing yet.
Referring to reports after the 12 hours speaking there was a statement of National Security Council (NSC) secretary-general Lt Gen Paradorn Pattanatabut which says that BRN liaison office chief Hassan Taib had submitted a general demand for an amnesty for southern insurgents. This includes withdrawing arrest warrants against suspected insurgents, releasing prisoners convicted in southern violence cases, clearing pending cases against suspected insurgents and revoking a rebel suspects blacklist. Lt Gen Paradorn Pattanatabut says that the demand to release prisoners was rejected while the other points should be discussed with the relevant agencies. The Thai delegation demanded a stop of attacking civilians in the peace talks. Mr. Taib emphasized he wants to convince other insurgent groups to reduce violence but he also admitted the difficulty of persuading other groups opposing the peace talks to stop their violence. (Bangkok Post)
Before holding the peace talks, National Security Council secretary-general Paradorn Pattanathabutr emphasized that the first round of talks past Thursday would mainly aim at establishing trust between the movements of the South and Thai government representatives. Both sides agreed in continuing the future peace negotiations. The next round of the talks will take place in Malaysia on 29 of April. (Bangkok Post/ The Nation)
Besides the current developments in the South also other issues affecting the security situation in other parts of Thailand should be mentioned.
Human trafficking is a long-lasting problem and remains gradient in the North of Thailand, activists say. People are being smuggled for use in various illegal trades including prostitution, pornography, forced labor and the organ trade. There’s no evidence for the decline of people smuggling, but the smugglers use more sophisticated smuggling methods. Human trafficking is a big issue in the North, especially young women and teenage girls are lured into the sex trade. Empowerment of local communities, particularly in more remote provinces, would help combat the trade, activists say. (Bangkok Post)
After the two landmine-incidents along the Thai-Cambodian border in the last month there was another one on Thursday, 21 of March. While patrolling along the border area, a Thai soldier was severely injured by stepping on a landmine. It is believed that the mine was planted along the border long time ago. (Bangkok Post)
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