HDFF Bi-Weekly Thailand Review 15/4 – 29/4
Almost without any press coverage the Thai government appointed a new minister of Tourism and Sports, Mr. Somsak Pureesrisak. (bangkokpost.com)
Summary
In politics, Yaowapa Wongsawat made a comeback to politics after her five year ban expired last year by winning in Chiang Mai’s constituency against her closest rival. The Thai government appointed a new Minister of Tourism and Sports, Somsak Pureesrisak, who will replace Chumpol Silpa-Archa, who passed away in January 2013. Pheu Thai decided to move up the amnesty bill to the top of the agenda to debate the bill at the next parliamentary session. Prime Minister (PM) Yingluck Shinawatra participated in the 22nd ASEAN Summit in Brunei Darussalam and held several bilateral talks.
In economics, the baht remains strong against the US dollar and the discussions continue regarding the 2 trillion baht government infrastructure investment. On the one hand, the investment is backed by the Asian Development Bank and on the other, critics argue that the high-speed railway that is to be developed during the coming years is not being properly planned and that the feasibility assessments have not been conducted in a satisfactory way.
In security, the “seven dangerous days” (April 11-17) of the Songkran holiday have left 321 people killed and 3040 injured in 2828 road accidents nationwide, referring to the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department. The southern provinces are still affected by the ongoing violence and numerous incidents caused many casualties and disturbances. The Thai government is concerned about a stronger involvement of Indonesia into peace process because of the suspected involvement of Indonesia in insurgency training of many insurgents in the South. The next round of peace talks will take part on 29 April, where the Thai government plans to emphasize the role of BRN in influencing other insurgency groups to support the peace process in the South.
Politics
Ms. Yaowapa made a comeback to politics after her five year ban expired last year by easily winning in Chiang Mai’s constituency 3 by-election against her closest rival, Democrat Party candidate Kingkan Na Chiang Mai. Ms. Yaowapa received about three times the amount of votes of Ms. Kingkan and will thus fill the seat left vacant after the resignation of Pheu Thai’s Kasem Nimmonrat. Her election victory came despite pre-election dissatisfaction from local red-shirts who would have like to select a party candidate by voting instead of opting for a Shinawatra family member. Ms. Yaowapa is the older sister of current PM Yingluck. (The Nation) (Bangkok Post) (Chiang Mai City News)
Almost without any press coverage the Thai government appointed a new Minister of Tourism and Sports Mr. Somsak, a career politician and former governor of Suphan Buri province will replace Mr. Chumpol, who passed away in January 2013. Mr. Chumpol was previously heavily criticized for his inaction to counter the rise of petty crime and violent crimes involving foreign travelers. He provoked an outcry in Europe after commenting on a rape case involving a Dutch young female tourist by stating that it could not have been a rape because she had previously had dinner with her attacker.
Mr. Somsak was quick to indicate that visitor safety and security would be on top of his agenda, stating Japan as his policy role model, one of the safest countries for travelers. He announced that, “If Thailand is not a safe destination in the eyes of foreign tourists, it is useless to invest hundreds of billions of baht to promote Thai tourism.” Furthermore, he felt that the state should increase the punishment against those committing a crime against tourists and expressed his confidence to work smoothly with the Thai police. Mr. Somsak is a member of the Chart Pattana Party, a member of the Yingluck coalition government. (Thailand Business News) (Travel Daily News Asia) (Prachatai)
After both the 2-trillion-baht loan bill and the charter change bills have fairly easily passed the first reading in the House, Pheu Thai decided to move up Pheu Thai MP Worachai Hema’s amnesty bill on the agenda from its previously held 75th place to the top. House MPs voted 283 to 56 to move the bill up after it was previously announced, for example by Noppadon Patama, Thaksin’s legal adviser, that Pheu Thai MPs would not be allowed to vote freely on the issue. Parliament will therefore debate the bill at the next parliamentary session in August following the 2014 budget bill sessions which will end late June. Mr. Worachai’s bill will free nearly all political offenders charged between September 2006 and May 2011. Opposition leaders and Thaksin critics consistently warn that the amnesty bill will be used to bring back former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra by whitewashing him of his corruption case. Pheu Thai leaders argued the bill would help red-shirt protesters in detention for their involvement in the 2010 unrests. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
PM Yingluck participated in the 22nd ASEAN Summit in Brunei Darussalam on 24 -25 April held under the motto “Our People, Our Future Together”. Despite the theme indicating the arrival of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) at the end of 2015, talks at the summit focused on the security situation in the South China Sea. On the sidelines PM Yingluck held bilateral talks with Myanmar President Thein Sein regarding infrastructure project along the border and the Dawei deep-sea port project. The Thai government is looking to bring Japanese partners into the project. (National News Bureau of Thailand) (The Nation)
Economy
The baht’s appreciation has continued and a recent survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) claims that as much as 10 % of businesses could close this year if the baht strenghtened to 27-27.9 against the US dollar. The Federation of the Thai Industries (FTI) have submitted its proposal for relief measures for small and medium-sized enterprises and urged the central bank to lower the policy interest rate to at least 2 per cent in order to discourage capital inflows. The currency policy rate is 2.75 per cent in Thailand (US maximum is 0.25 % and Japan maximum is 0.1 %). (The Nation)
Despite strong economic development in the financial heart of Thailand, declining commodity prices have struck some farmers in rural regions hard. The fall in the price of rubber has led rubber farmers’ purchasing power to drop by more than 50 %. The demand for rubber has shrunk during the global economic slowdown and many farmers find themselves with loans, especially for pickup trucks and cars that were bought during last year’s government subsidy scheme, of which they can no longer meet the installment payments. (Bangkok Post)
Discussions have continued in Bangkok regarding the high-speed railway project that would link the capital with Pattaya as well as northern and western regions. The government has laid out plans for the railway as the main part of an infrastructure that will amount to 2 trillion baht. Critical voices have been heard about the transparency of the budgeting and planning process as well as the feasibility and profitability of the project. In response to this, the government will set up an independent agency to monitor the process. This organization will be independent from the State Railway of Thailand (SRT) that has previously been blamed for widespread corruption. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has been positive to the government’s investment as it believes that it can drive growth. Their growth projection for the Thai economy in 2013 and 2014 is 4.9 and 5 per cent respectively. The strong baht together with the depreciation of the Japanese yen (19 per cent compared to the US dollar since last November) have also led to renewed wanderlust among Thai tourists who have been flocking to travel to Japan. The baht was strengthened by 14 percent versus the yen from January to March and the price of a stay in the country is therefore lower than in a long time for Thai nationals. The rise of tourists even caused a shortage of yen banknotes in Thailand before the Songkran holidays. (The Nation, Bangkok Post, Skift.com)
Security
Referring to the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department, 321 people were killed and 3040 others injured in 2828 road accidents nationwide during the “seven dangerous days” (April 11-17) of the Songkran holiday. Chiang Mai had the largest number of road accidents at 104 and injuries at 110, while Prachuap Khiri Khan had the largest number of fatalities at 12. (Bangkokpost)
Facing the situation in Thailand’s South in the last two weeks, the southern provinces are still affected of ongoing violence and numerous incidents by insurgents caused a high number of casualties. There were several bomb explosions and gun-attacks in Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat, whereby many members of the security forces, but also civilians were killed or injured. Friday night, April 19, marked the day with the highest number of incidents in the last two weeks, whereby fourteen locations in the southern border province of Pattani were hit by violence. An unidentified group of insurgents was suspected of being behind incidents in Yaring, Nongjik, Yarang and Muang districts, said Pol Maj Gen Ekaphob Prasitwattanachai, chief of the provincial police force. The insurgents set fire on car tires, on a public telephone booth and security cameras and also cut down trees to block different parts of the road. Also a house belonging to a village headman was destroyed by fire. (Bangkok Post/ The Nation)
There were many other disturbances by insurgents without casualties. On 16 April 2013 a banner opposing the ongoing Malaysia-brokered peace talks on the far South, and two Malaysian flags, were found put up overnight on a roadside in Narathiwat municipality. The banner says “Peace will not occur as long as the host does not endorse it”. A bomb disposal police found a fake bomb buried beneath the banner. Police believes that the militants who posted the banner were the same group behind the posting of banners calling for peace, unity and a Pattani state in many spots across Pattani and Narathiwat last month. National Security Council (NSC) chief Paradorn Pattanathabut says he believes that the banners only wanted to express a different opinion and send a signal that they want to take part in the peace talks between the government and the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) separatist movement. (Bangkok Post/ The Nation)
Facing the ongoing violence in the southern provinces, a poll, conducted by Deep South Watch and the Centre for Conflict Studies and Cultural Diversity pictures, that 67 % of respondents said that they had confidence in the talks. A total of 871 people representing different stakeholder groups in 187 sub-districts of the nation’s southernmost provinces were interviewed from March 21-25. As main concerning issues 70 % of respondents named drugs and 49 % referred to unemployment. Just 30 % of people said they regarded the violence as their most worrisome problem. Almost 33% of respondents said they did not agree with the talks and thought security authorities should not have negotiated with the rebels at all. (Bangkok Post)
Related to the upcoming events in the peace process, the government delegation will ask BRN representatives how they intend to prevent more attacks in the next round of the peace talks (29 April 2013), National Security Council secretary-general Lt Gen Paradorn Pattanatabut said. He said, the BRN will have to influence other groups that disagree with the dialogue. (Bangkok Post, The Nation)
As one of the newest developments in the peace process in the South should be mentioned that the NSC and the armed forces have agreed to add Indonesia to the process. It is suspected, that many of the insurgents in the South have received their insurgency training in Indonesia. A source said that a representative was sent to Jakarta to discuss the idea of their involvement in the peace process, but the Indonesian embassy in Bangkok denied on April 26, that Jakarta was involved in the NSC-led peace process. The Indonesian embassy also denied the NCS’s claim that many of the insurgents receive insurgency training in Indonesia and called this assertion as “inaccurate and unacceptable”. (Bangkok Post/ The Nation)
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