HDFF Bi-Weekly Thailand Review 30/4 – 12/5
Security forces get ready to keep the situation calm, when red shirts hold a mass rally against Constitutional Court judges Wednesday (The Nation)
Summary
In politics, Prime Minister (PM) Yingluck Shinawatra’s speech at the Democracy Forum in Mongolia started, unwantedly, a debate on freedom of expression in Thailand, started by an unfounded social media message insulting PM Yingluck. The Government was asked to review its 350 billion baht water-management and flood-prevention scheme, and Li Ping is extending her stay in Chiang Mai Zoo.
In economics, the baht’s appreciation continue to divide policy makers, while gravely affecting exports and slowing Thailand’s national growth projections. The Bank of Thailand is in continued disaccord with the Finance Minister about the policy rate and the measures necessary for limiting speculation in the government bond market. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment in Myanmar is lunging ahead and abundant trade opportunities are open to Thailand, starting with the infrastructure development and special economic projects related to the Dawei economic zone.
In security, on Monday, April 29, the peace talks between the Barisan Revolusi Nasional and Thai officials went into its second round. The demands of BRN, which were issued one day ahead, were rejected by the Thai officials, who instead urged the BRN to prove their control on other insurgent groups in reducing the violence. Meanwhile incidents by insurgents in the southernmost provinces continued with many casualties. Several drug smugglers were arrested in the South as well as in the North of Thailand and the police confiscated more than a hundred thousand of methamphetamine pills. The Anti-Human Trafficking Division revealed two recent arrests of suspected human traffickers.
Politics
PM Yingluck’s speech on April 29 at a Democracy Forum in Mongolia has set in motion another debate about freedom of speech in Thailand and provided Yingluck-critical analysts with the opportunity to claim that she would have finally shown her true feeling about the 2006 coup and the 2010 protests.
Already before leaving to Mongolia PM Yingluck was criticized for defending red-shirt protest against the Constitutional Court by saying they would have the right to do so as long as the protests remain peaceful. Democrat MP Ong-art Klampaiboon insisted though that the red-shirts threat to capture the three court judges deciding whether the charter amendment bills were unconstitutional went too far. Meanwhile, 312 parliamentarians signed a letter indicating their stance not to adhere to the Constitutional Court’s decision stating that the court would not have the authority to rule on the amendment of Article 68, which currently allows the public to complain directly to the court in perceived acts that undermine the constitutional monarchy. The government wants to amend to article so that every complained is first screened by the Office of the Attorney-General, which then decides if it should be sent to the court.
In her speech at the Democracy Forum PM Yingluck condemned the overthrow of her brother’s government, which was democratically elected, by “anti-democratic forces”. While her speech was naturally praised by government MP’s and spokespersons, opposition forces criticized her for painting only half a picture and distorting facts, failing to mention corruption and abuses of authority under the Thaksin government. A group of 58 appointed senators were quick to demand an apology for her speech. The controversy then reached another level when Thai Rath cartoonist Chai Rachawat posted a message on Facebook saying: “Please understand prostitutes are not evil women. Prostitutes just sell their body but an evil woman sells the nation.” PM Yingluck, the obvious target of Mr. Rachawat’s posting decided to file a lawsuit for defamation, which ultimately lead to the discussion regarding freedom of expression. On top of that the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Minister Anudith Nakornthap threatened to block websites criticizing the prime minister. Opposition democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva slammed the minister for violating democratic principles but did not, on the other hand, stop his Party from filing a defamation lawsuit against Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul, who called the 2008-2011 Democrat government a “non-elected government”. The Prime Ministers website was then hacked and a fake picture wad added including derogatory and sexist remarks added.
In no-nonsense news regarding Yingluck’s visit to Mongolia, the two countries agreed to strengthen ties in terms of trade, investment, science, education, public health, and tourism. Furthermore, Thailand will promote investment in mining in Mongolia and help through its experience in the hospitality sector and cooperate on alternative energies and the development of dual degrees. (Associated Foreign Press)(Bangkok Post) (The Nation) (National News Bureau of Thailand)
A network of organizations, lead by the Seub Nakhasathien Foundation, asked the Prime Minister to review the government’s 350 billion baht water-management and flood-prevention plan. The groups argued that there was no agency responsible to supervise the nine modules, and no local participation was included in the scheme, a violation of the 2007 constitution. The Lawyers Council of Thailand announced that it will lodge a complaint with the National Anti-Corruption Commission in case the Central Administrative Court will not issue an injunction on the acceptance of bids. Utain Shartpinyo, a former advisor to Yingluck, asked the Administrative Court for the injunction. (The Nation)
In uplifting news, Thailand and China agreed to extend Li Ping’s stay in Chiang Mai Zoo to a yet to be announced date. Li Ping is the offspring of Chuang Chuang and Lin Hui, two pandas leased by Beijing to Thailand in October 2003 for 10 years for $250,000. The agreement was reached during Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to Thailand. Mr. Wang stated that, “When the time is right, the panda will have to go home to find its partner in China.” It is expected that China will invest in Thailand’s 2-trillion-baht infrastructure projects, which include water management systems and high-speed railways.(Bangkok Post) (Global Post) (National News Bureau of Thailand)
Economy
The strong baht leads to continued discussion between Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong and the Bank of Thailand (BoT) regarding the preferred measures for cooling down the baht’s appreciation. The strong baht has affected national growth projections and exports; with for example rice exports expected to plummet to their lowest level in 12 years. The price of Thai rice is now at gravely uncompetitive levels, with neighbouring countries as well as India providing the market with cheaper produce. Minister of Finance has since last year promoted a reduction of the policy rate as his preferred solution to the situation, something that the central bank has rejected repeatedly. The BoT has now proposed four measures directed at the government bond market to limit speculation and inflow of foreign capital. The first measure involves a requirement for foreign investors to engage in foreign exchange hedging. In short, this means that investors are forced to protect themselves from the risk that the exchange rate will change unfavorably. In practice, this limits the foreign investors’ possibility to gain money from the baht’s rise and the interest in pumping in more money in the government bond market therefore weakens. The second measure is to set a minimum holding period for foreigners investing in Thai government bonds, something that according to Paul Mackel, head of Asian currency research at the HSBC, is likely to discourage investors. The other two measures involve a ban on buying the central bank’s bonds and on levying fees on offshore investors that profit from bond investment. (The Nation, Bangkok Post)
Although the scramble for Myanmar is already in full speed among investors, remittances from the Burmese expatriates remain an important source of revenue for Burmese households. Currently, around 3 million Burmese migrant workers are estimated to live in Thailand, with another 1.8 million expected to receive work permits by the end of the year. The Thai bank Kasikornbank is therefore extending its remittance transfer services, first set up in 2012. Remittance transfers are now available in Kbank’s ATMs that also provide service in Burmese language. The bank is hoping to cash in on the opening up of the banking system in Myanmar and the lifting of international sanctions against the country. The bank expects that the service will increase their remittance customers from 10,000 to 100,000. Trade links between Thailand and Myanmar are growing, a development that is likely to be boosted by the continued planning of the Dawei special economic zone and following infrastructure construction. The Industry Minister from Myanmar, Mr. Aye Myint came to Thailand on 8 May to talk with potential investors and move forward on the plans to set up a Thai consortium to gather all the interested investors. (The Nation, Bangkok Post, Eleven Myanmar)
Security
On Monday, April 29, the second round of peace talks between the Barisan Revolusi Nasional and Thai officials was held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. One day ahead the talks, BRN published a video clip with five demands via you tube. They stipulated that the peace talks will be attended by the Melayu Pattanis led by BRN, and the Thai government and the Thai officials need to accept Malaysia as “mediator” of the peace talks and not just as “facilitator”. Furthermore demanded the authorities to release all detained suspects and suspend and revoke all arrest warrants concerning national security cases without condition. BRN themselves want to be recognized as a Pattani liberation movement, not as separatist group. Besides that, one of the demands issued by BRN, is the involvement of Asean members, the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) and other non- governmental organizations as witnesses of the peace talks. (Bangkok Post)
The Thai officials rejected the demands in the second round of peace talks on 29 of April. Instead they brought out their own postulation, which includes that Hassan Taib and BRN group should prove their influence on the movements in the South by reducing the violence in May. Observers of the peace talks said that the BRN’s demands are a “slap in the face for the government”. Lt-Gen Paradorn Pattanatabut, chief of National Security Council, insisted that the second round of the talks couldn’t be seen as a failure and developments until the next meeting of BRN and Thai officials has to be awaited. Meanwhile Gen Yutthasak Sasiprapa, a former defense minister, urged, that the NSC should go on the offensive and involves experts in negotiation. The next round of peace talks will be held on June 13. (Bangkok Post/ The Nation)
According to a Dusit Poll survey, most of the people in the southernmost provinces rejected the conditions demanded for peace talks set by BRN. The survey was conducted between April 29 and May 2, whereby 1249 people of all education levels and a wide range of occupation nationwide (including 542 respondents in the three southern border provinces of Narathiwat, Pattani and Yala and the southern province of Songkhla) were asked about their opinion about the BRN peace talk’s demands. (Bangkok Post)
Meanwhile the violence in the southern provinces continues. In Pattani almost ten people were shot dead in the last two weeks and four local administrative offices and two mobile phone signal towers were torched in four different districts. Among the casualties is a 2-year old boy who was killed in a gun attack with six other adults. Also in Narathiwat were several gun attacks, whereby numerous civilians, members of the security forces and one militant were killed or injured. (Bangkok Post/ The Nation)
Thai police could recently arrest several suspected drug smugglers. In Narathiwat two men were arrested on suspicion of transporting methamphetamine pills worth 23 million baht to be smuggled into Malaysia on 5 of May. Police found 94 000 speed pills in their possession. Investigators believe that the drugs were eventually supposed to be transported further to Singapore, where the price of each pill is expected to be nearly five times higher. Also in Chiang Mai police has arrested 11 suspected drug dealers. They are suspected of selling drugs to youths through social media like facebook. Police confiscated hundreds of amphetamine tablets in this case. In Chiang Rai five drug suspects were killed on May 5 in a gunfight between a smugglers’ caravan and the Pha Mueang Task Force. In Nakhon Phanom’s Ban Paeng district police arrested three Thai men, who had 31 425 yaba pills in their possession. (Bangkok Post/ The Nation)
On April 30, the head of the Anti-Human Trafficking Divison, Pol Maj-General Chawalit Sawaengphuet, presented two recent arrests. One of them was arrested on suspicion of luring a Thai woman into forced prostitution in South Africa, while the other arrested man is suspected of luring a man from Myanmar into forced work on a fishing boat for 4-5 months. (The Nation)
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