HDFF Bi-Weekly Thailand Review 27/05-10/06/2013
Members of the newly formed white mask movement meet Sunday outside the Central World shopping complex to demonstrate against the government. (Source: Bangkokpost)
Summary
In politics, the government’s 2014 budget bill comfortable passes the first reading in the House of Representatives and Prime Minister (PM) Yingluck Shinawatra agreed to further intensify free trade talks with India after the first Indian premier visit since 2004. Former secretary general of the National Security Council (NSC) Thawil Pliensri won a court battle against PM Yingluck at the Central Administrative Court, which consequently ordered his reinstatement as head of the NSC. Thailand’s color coded politics receives a new group-entry, the white mask movement.
In economics, Thai shares fell due to foreign sales and the baht’s appreciation slowed, representatives from the SET show no fear however as domestic demand and companies remain strong enough to push the Monetary Policy Committee to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points. Increased ASEAN integration was also discussed during the past fortnight both at the World Economic Forum and in the media, with high expectations set for Thailand’s economic potential.
In security, the Police is still investigating in Bangkok’s bomb blast in Ramkhamhaeng Soi 43/1 on 26 of May. A connection to the South is not suspected, police is considering two possible motives: a political one or a background related to business conflicts in the area. Concerning the ongoing violence and numerous casualties in the South, emergency decree is extended for further more 90 days, the new expiry date is September 19. The next round of the peace talks between National Security Council (NSC) and representatives of the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) separatist group is slated for June 13. Ex-prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva recently urged the government to postpone the peace talks and negotiate informally in smaller meetings with some southern insurgents instead to push for satisfactory developments.
Politics
The government’s 2014 fiscal budget bill passed the first reading of the House of Representatives after a 292 to 155 vote. Opposition Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva criticised the bill for leading to unsustainable growth which will concentrate wealth even further and spread poverty around more widely. PM Yingluck defended the 2.52 trillion baht budget bill arguing it would solve long-standing pressing problems and stop the decline in trade competitiveness. She insisted that her budget will contribute to eliminate social inequality and provide equal opportunities for all people while focusing on environmental friendly growth that will manage forests and natural resources sustainably and thus help resolve the flood and drought problems of Thailand. According to PM Yingluck the lack of investment into infrastructure should be given first priority in future developments.
The Thailand Development Research Institute’s (TDRI) president Somkiat Tangkitvanich meanwhile criticized the government’s populist policies such as the rice pledging scheme and first-car tax rebate as generating fewer benefits for the public than populist policies under previous Thaksin Shinawatra administrations such as the 30-baht universal healthcare scheme and the One Tambon One Product (OTOP) entrepreneurship program. Current programs have simple become a political tool to accumulate power, he claimed. His argument was supported by his TDRI colleague Ammar Siamwalla, who argued that it is the wealthiest farmers who benefit most from the pledging scheme. Although TDRI was not against populist policies per-se, Mr. Somkiat advised the government to adopt strict fiscal policies to control spending such as European governments does now to prevent a rise in private debt. (Bangkok Post)
Former secretary general of the National Security Council (NSC) Thawil Pliensri has won a court battle against PM Yingluck at the Central Administrative Court, which order that he be reinstated as head of the NSC. Thawil was transferred from his position through an order by PM Yingluck on 7 September 2012 to the PM’s office where he should have served as an adviser. Pheu Thai deputy spokesman Anusorn Lamsa-ard commented that the government’s legal team will have to look into the case before the government will decide if it wants to appeal the case. Generally though, Anusorn announced: “The government should be able to choose the individuals who work for it. Is every transfer order a case of abuse of power?” Thawil, who insisted that he did not want to threaten Yingluck, stated that if PM Yingluck appeals against the Central Administrative Court verdict he will take the case to the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) and file a complaint with the Office of the Ombudsman, accusing the Prime Minister of severe ethical violation, which could in the worst case lead to her impeachment. Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yubamrung joined the debate and defended the Prime Minister’s initial transfer of Thawil, arguing that it would be normal practice of any government and had also been conducted by the Abhisit-led Democrat government, citing the transfer of National Security Council chief Lt Gen Paradorn Pattanatabut as proof. In what might be understood as a direct message to Thawil, Deputy PM Chalerm stated: “It doesn’t matter how many NSC chiefs we have to change. The NSC chief is nothing if I don’t give him any jobs to do.” (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
Thailand and India agreed to elevate their ties to a “strategic partnership” and outline a framework for a comprehensive free trade agreement during the visit of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. India views Thailand as its gateway to the ASEAN region and thus wants to develop the current free trade agreement, which includes tariff exemptions for 84 goods, further. Two-way trade between India and Thailand reached USD 9.2 billion in 2012-13. Another important item on the agenda during the meeting of the two Prime Ministers was the 3,200 km highway linking India, Myanmar and Thailand. The highway project, for which India has already provided a loan to Myanmar, is expected to be finished by 2016. PM Yingluck also propagated information regarding the Dawei Special Economic Zone in southern Myanmar and invited Indian businesses to join the project. The visit by PM Singh was the first by an Indian premier since the 2004 visit by then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. (Times of India) (The Hindu) (Bangkok Post)
The color-coded political sphere of Thai politics has received a new entry, this time not discernible by the color of their shirts though but by the mask supporters of the group wear. The group, calling itself V for Thailand, or the white mask movement, protested on Sunday, June 2, in front of Central World shopping mall wearing the internationally known Guy Fawkes mask. Protesters urged people to oppose the current government, which it sees as being ruled by former PM Thaksin Shinawatra. Thaksin’s legal adviser Noppadon Pattama stated that he believed members of the white mask group were the “old faces” of Thaksin’s opponents, saying “These people have a clear agenda. When the public did not support them, they just changed the names.” The group, who has no official leader, seems to be another response to PM Yingluck’s democracy speech in Mongolia and subsequent freedom of expression debates and could therefore join forces with the Thai Spring group initiated by Pol General Vasit Dejkunjorn. (Voice of America) (Bangkok Post) (AsiaOne)
Economy
Thai share prices are down again, and are headed to a two-month low due to sell-offs amid foreign investors. The decline started after a Fed announcement that they would limit their asset purchases if the economic growth in the US remains stable. The president of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) remained calm, saying that the decline is due to foreign outflow and that the Thai economy still has potential for growth since listed companies’ earnings remain strong and growing. Domestic demand remains strong and after months of debate and political pressure, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5 %. Politicians have since the beginning of the year urged the MPC to cut the policy rate in order to stop the appreciation of the baht that is hurting local industries and export products. In the end, the expectation of a policy rate cut in the market was in itself enough to slow currency appreciation before the rate cut decision by the MPC. (Bangkok Post, The Nation)
The World Economic Forum (WEF) was held in Myanmar this week, a chance for the ASEAN countries to come together and discuss their common economic objectives. There was general optimism about the future of the common platform and business leaders from around the world encouraged ASEAN countries to start thinking about their presence on the global market, rather than being focused on the regional market, and to develop the quality aspects of their products, rather than concentrating on producing cheap products. The long-held idea of an ASEAN common currency was floated but instantly rebuked by the Thai Deputy Prime Minister, Kittiratt Na-Ranong, who said that it was simply “impossible”. (The Nation, Bangkok Post)
As the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is drawing nearer to completion (set to be launched in 2015) investors are examining their options for drawing profit from the regional integration. Thailand is expected to benefit greatly from the AEC, among other things through property development and increased demand of serviced apartments and high quality accommodation. The opening of Myanmar’s market may also represent an important opportunity for Thai investors as there is an important shortage of hotels, offices and apartments in the country. (The Nation)
Security
Police is still investigating in the correlations of the bomb explosion in Ramkhamhaeng Soi 43/1 in Bangkok on 26 of May. Two possible motives are considered: one political and another arising from possible business conflicts in the area. There is no suspected connection to the unrest in the South. (Bangkok Post)
The violence in the South of Thailand continues and bomb explosions and shootings caused numerous casualties. Concerning these developments, the emergency decree is extended for further 90 days. It was due to expire on June 19, the revised expiry date is September 19. Army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha brought out the idea of building a security fence along the southern border to prevent separatist bandits crossing back and forth into Malaysia. The fence would also complicate the situation for smugglers. Defense Minister Sukumpol Suwanatat agrees with the idea, but no decision about the improvement of this idea has been made yet. (Bangkok Post/ The Nation)
The next round of peace talks between the National Security Council (NSC) and representatives of the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) separatist group is slated for June 13 in Malaysia. A survey among the local population regarding the peace dialogue between the government and the BRN, shows that the majority of the respondents (54.4 %) want the talks to continue. The survey was carried out in 409 telephone interviews between June 6 – 7 in the southern border provinces of Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat and Songkhla. Asked about their rating of the present situation in the South, 61 % of the respondents said the situation has become more violent, while 36.6 % said the situation has remained unchanged. 2.7 % appraised the situation as improved. Asked about the opinion of an advantage of one party of the peace talks, the majority of the respondents with 78.9 % pointed to the BRN. Asked about their opinion of the prospective development of the situation in the South, 72.6 % of those interviewed were concerned the situation would get worse, while 27.4 % said there were signs of truce. (Bangkok Post)
Meanwhile members of civil society groups are trying to involve themselves more in the ongoing peace-building process in the South. Recently, members of the Civil Society Council of Southernmost Thailand have agreed to draft their own recommendations for the ongoing peace dialogue between the Thai government and the separatist rebels. Another civil society group is starting a three-month-long leadership training course from June to November to prepare local leaders for a role in the peace-building process. People’s College, which is offering the course, aims in collaboration with other organizations to provide political space to all relevant stakeholders in the peace-building process. (Bangkok Post/ The Nation)
Concerning the imminent beginning of Ramadan next month, southern Imams demanded the end of all forms of violence during the month-long fasting period. This demand was pointed out in a recent meeting between Imams, or leaders of 364 mosques across the southern province of Narathiwat and Pol Col Tawee Sodsong, director of the Southern Border Provinces Administration Centre (SBPAC), held at the office of the Narathiwat Islamic Committee. The Muslim religious leaders called on the National Security Council (NSC) to set this as an urgent demand on the agenda of the next round of peace talks. (Bangkok Post)
Ex-prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva recently urged the government to postpone the peace talks with the BRN and negotiate informally in smaller meetings with some southern insurgents instead since the violence is going on to push for satisfactory developments. (Bangkok Post)
Comments are closed