Source: Bangkok Post
Summary
In politics, the amnesty bill sponsored by Pheu Thai MP Worachai Hema passes the first reading of the House but law analysts predict an uncertain future for the bill. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra meanwhile proposed to hold a political reform forum on 2 September to end political conflicts. Disagreement over the upcoming military reshuffle might worsen the cooperation between the armed forces and the government. The police’s Technology Crime Suppression Division (TCSD) wants to snoop in Thai “Line” users’ private messages despite the government’s insistence that it had no authority to do so and that it would violate Section 157 of the Criminal Code.
In economy, cross-border collaboration and ASEAN 2015 economic integration have been hot topics over the past fortnight. The debate is warming as global, and notably European, economic conditions have been slow in recuperating strength. Thailand’s annual growth forecast has been lowered by several agencies while the Thai government has announced a number of measures, met with lukewarm comments from analysts, designed to increase domestic consumption and foreign investment.
In security, the unrest in the South of Thailand during the holy month of Ramadan and the death of respected Imam Yacob Ramanee has further delayed peace talks between the Thai government and the BRN. Unrest has furthermore continued and among notable attacks were an ambush against police in Narathiwat and bombing at an LPG factory. Further north, an incident of escaped Rohingya refugees from the Phuket immigration center has spurred investigations into police and immigration involvement in the trafficking of Rohingya migrants. Authorities have denied the allegations but admitted that some Rohingya migrants have “been hidden away” in some areas of Koh Tarutao National Park of Satun province near the Malaysian border. Regional issues are also in the spotlight as ten ASEAN delegates meet informally to prepare for its talk with Beijing on issues such as the Southern China Sea territorial disputes.
Politics
It’s either all about reconciliation and for the good of the country or it’s all about whitewashing Thaksin Shinawatra’s crimes to bring home the former prime minister as a free man, depending on which political camp one listens to. The amnesty bill sponsored by Pheu Thai MP Worachai Hema easily passed the first reading in the House 300-124 due to the overwhelming quantity of Pheu Thai and coalition MP’s. The opposition only mounted small rallies at the beginning of the amnesty debate; therefore Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra signed an order revoking the Internal Security Act (ISA) imposed in Bangkok’s Phra Nakhon, Dusit and Pomprab Satrupai districts on August 8, two days ahead of its scheduled end. The security act was put in place on August 1 to maintain order during the parliamentary debate.
Worachai’s bill might have passed the first reading but analysts already predict a difficult future for the bill to ever be passed. Lawyer Ukrit Mongkolnavin warned Pheu Thai that the bill could be deemed unconstitutional and that the protest leaders and authorities excluded from the amnesty could petition the constitutional court on grounds of discrimination. Sukhumpong Ngonkham, a member of the Law Reform Commission, meanwhile presumes that the Senate could put the whole bill on hold until the House is dissolved, making the bill void unless the next government reaffirms it within 60 days of the formation of a new parliament. Worachai additionally seems to face opposition from within his own party, as he announced that Pheu Thai MP Wattana Muangsook had asked him to withdraw the bill to enable all political sides to join the political reform assembly aimed at ending political conflicts proposed by Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. The Democrat Party has previously required the withdrawal of all amnesty and reconciliation bills before participating in Yingluck’s forum. PM Yingluck urged all sides to join the forum and extended the invitations to senior figures outside the political circle and international experts. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, former Finnish president Martti Ahtisaari and transitional justice expert Priscilla Hayner have accepted invitations to speak at the event while senior figures within Thailand where harder to come by, with only Chavalit Yongchaiyudh and Banharn Silpa-archa announcing their participation. The Democrat Party insisted that they could not participate in the forum scheduled for 2 September because it was just a means to divert attention away from the amnesty bill. Democrat Bangkok MP Ong-art Klampaiboon argued that Martti Ahtisaari and Kofi Annan had paid official visits to Thailand in February to present their advice at the invitation of the Truth for Reconciliation Commission of Thailand (TRCT) but the government did not follow up on these. The Democrat Party has threatened to launch a campaign to oust the government if the bill passes a third reading. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation) (Washington Post)
Despite everyone’s insistence to the contrary, the Bangkok Post claimed a worsening atmosphere between the armed forces and PM Yingluck, quoting a Defense Ministry source. The disagreement supposedly concerned the selection of the new permanent secretary for defense and the navy chief in the upcoming military reshuffle. Deputy permanent secretary for defense Gen. Niphat Thonglek could replace permanent secretary for defense Thanongsak Apirakyothin, who is to retire, despite the supreme commander and other armed forces leaders’ belief that Gen. Nipat would not have enough seniority for the post. Supreme Commander Gen. Tanasak Patimapragorn would prefer one of his deputies to take over as permanent secretary for defense. Deputy navy chief Adm Narong Pipathanasai is meanwhile considered favorite to become the new navy chief despite Thaksin’s support for Adm. Amornthep Na Bangchang, who was mentioned in the conversation between Thaksin and Deputy Defence Minister Gen. Yuthasak Sasiprapa in the audio clip recently posted on YouTube. Supreme Commander Tanasak Patimapragorn insisted the armed forces are on good terms with PM Yingluck Shinawatra. (Bangkok Post)
The police’s Technology Crime Suppression Division (TCSD) under division commander Pol. Maj-General Pisit Paoin announced its intention to ask the Japan-based Line Corporation to cooperate on providing police forces access to check private messages sent by Thai Line users. Pol Maj-Gen Pisit was quoted saying “I’ve noticed that more criminal offences are being committed through social networking sites such as Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp and Line”, which would oblige the TCSD to monitor messages sent through these networks. According to Pisit this would not violate people’s right to privacy as the TCSD would use software which would only filter messages using words posing a threat to national security such as coup, monarchy, lese majeste, or drugs. While Facebook, WhatsApp, and Twitter had apparently not cooperated with the TCSD, Line so far only announced that it did not receive any official request from Thai policy and added in an answer to a query from The Nation, “Line does not collect or store any information from its users, as we protect users’ privacy and maintain a global-level of security standards.”
The Information and Communication Technology Ministry under Minister Anudith Nakorn-thap announced its and the governments disagreement with Pisit’s initiative, stating it had no authority to check private messages. Pisit remained persistent, warning that if Line would not cooperate “we have other ways to inspect Line messages.” Amara Pongsapich, chairwoman of the Office of the National Human Rights of Thailand, warned that the TCSD’s attempt to spy on Line users would infringe on people’s privacy as it would be similar to telephone tapping while Surangkana Wayuparb, director of the government’s Electronic Transaction Development Agency (ETDA), clarified that the TCSD’s spying attempt would violate Section 157 of the Criminal Code which states that police need a court order before obtaining information on suspects from service providers. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
Economy
With Thailand’s economic growth falling behind the forecasts, the government has suggested a new group of measures designed to boost domestic consumption and promote exports. At the beginning of 2013, domestic consumption was expected to compensate for sluggish exports, as had been the case to some extent during 2012. Hopes were also high that global demand on Thailand’s agricultural produce, competing with quality rather than against the significantly lower prices in other South Asian countries, would recover from the global economic crisis. Economists remain unconvinced however, saying that suggestions to provide more credit for small firms or promote sales of energy-efficient appliances is unlikely to boost consumption as household debt is already high after previous campaigns. Likewise, exports, accounting for around 60 per cent of Thailand’s GDP, may improve as the baht returns to lower levels after a peak at the beginning of the year but are unlikely to do so thanks to further government spending programs. (Reuters)
As international exports to the traditional markets in Europe have proved unstable over the past years, there has been some debate over what importance intra-ASEAN trade may have after the establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in 2015. On August 14, Thailand hosted the informal ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting to discuss guidelines for future relations after the AEC comes into force. Although no formal decisions were taken, the meeting served as an opportunity for ASEAN member states to agree on mutual collaboration to push the region forward as a trade and investment hub while avoiding competition against one another. (National News Bureau of Thailand)
On the subject of cross-border collaboration, Thailand’s third-largest contractor (CH. Karnchang Plc, or CK) has signed a deal with the government of Lao PDR to develop a hydroelectric power plant worth 20 billion baht. CK has already been involved in several hydropower projects in Lao PDR, something it sees as an important step to providing sustainable growth in the region. Nevertheless, the Laotian government’s extensive plans for hydropower development on the Mekong mainstream have been widely criticized because of the potential impacts that these projects may have on livelihoods in and around the Mekong, forcing displacement of populations and upsetting the local wildlife and their habitats. (Bangkok Post)
Apropos upset wildlife, the mobile application ‘Angry Birds’ that has been hugely successful in Thailand, selling more licensed merchandise in the country than anywhere else in Southeast Asia, is now launching a new juice drink with the popular birds on the cans. The company behind the app now reckons that if the product is well received in Thailand then they will continue to expand throughout South East Asia. (Bangkok Post)
Security
Highly respected, Imam Yacob Ramanee was shot dead in a drive-by shooting last Monday afternoon. Imam Yacob, with the Pattani Central Mosque, was known for his key role in developing areas in the South, and his support for peace dialogues aimed at ending violence in the region. The Imam’s death along with 11 fatalities in the South during Ramadan has led the BRN negotiator, Hassan Taib, to submit a protest letter expressing his discontent over the Thai government’s failure to protect Muslims during the holy month. The BRN had agreed to end violence from July 10 to August 19 when agreeing to the so called Ramadan Peace Initiative. The agreement covered Narathiwat, Pattani, Yala and five districts in Songkhla province. The cease-fire was set to expire on August 18, when the next round of talks would follow.
The BRN has now postponed peace talks until the Thai government is ready to meet the five demands it suggests. The BRN has issued five demands in exchange for curbing violence. They are demanding that the Thai government must accept the Malaysian government as mediators, not just facilitators, in its peace talks, it requests the attendance of the Melayu Pattanis, ASEAN member countries, Organization of the Islamic Conference, and NGO witnesses, release of detainees concerning security cases without any conditions, and that the BRN must be recognized as a Pattani liberation movement, not as a separatist group. A Thai government-supported panel is being set up this week to consider the demands. The Centre for the Implementation of Policies and Strategies in the Southern provinces will discuss whether meeting the demands of the BRN is feasible. Claims that the BRN will withdraw from talks were denied by National Security Council. The Thai government furthermore announced that talks to resolve the southern unrest will continue despite the government not accepting the demands of the BRN group. Following the announcement, a police patrol group in Narathiwat was ambushed by seven militants and four policemen were killed. (Bangkok Post)
A LPG gas filling factory was bombed by six militants early on Sunday. 10 households were affected, 3 people were injured. Security authorities are now monitoring all gas supply factories and stations along the Southern border. (Bangkok Post)
The housing compound of the editor of Post Today in Nonthaburi was threatened with gunfire and a grenade hanging outside of his home on Saturday. The police believe this was meant to intimidate and threaten him for his criticism of the government and other political groups. The police say it is “an attack to the freedom of press”. The Thai Journalist Association and Post Publishing Plc. are demanding a full police investigation. (Bangkok Post)
38 Rohingya refugees escaped the Phuket immigration center. There were caught on March 20 for illegal entry into Thailand. The Department of National Parks, Wildlife and Plant Conservation and the Phuket Immigration Center has denied allegations that their officers were involved in the trafficking of Rohingya people. It was alleged that the officers helped escaped refugees had boarded a van after their escape. The Phuket immigration center has denied this claim but has admitted that some Rohingya migrants are hidden in Tarutao Island of Satun province, close to the Malaysian border. Foreign Ministers of Thailand and Myanmar are discussing sustainable solutions such as resettling the Rohingya refugees to a place with more space. (The Nation)
On a more regional note, Southeast Asian foreign ministers met “informally” in Hua Hin on Wednesday to discuss territorial disputes within the South China Sea and topics concerning its ties with China. Ten members from ASEAN prepare for two follow-up meetings with Beijing set on August 28th -30th. The delegates will discuss the Code of Conduct to manage territorial disputes in the south of China and on ASEAN relations with China. (Bangkok Post)
Moving on to the impact of the PTT oil spill in the popular beach escape, Koh Samet, the beaches of Ao Phrao and Ao Tub Tim were found to have high levels of mercury contamination by the Pollution Control Department. Visitors were warned to avoid swimming in the area. Visitors that have been in contact with the water are currently being examined and treated. (Bangkok Post)
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