Image source: The Nation
Summary
In politics, the People’s Democratic Reform Committee and the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship are calling each other out to the streets and preparing to step up to the plate. Suthep’s new mass protest via boycott threatens to hit the Thai economy even more, but he remains determined to pressure Prime Minister Yingluck to step down. Meanwhile, the Pheu Thai Party warn the Election Commission against pressuring the government to hold another election due to the absence of candidate registrations in the southern provinces.
In economics, the protests continue to highlight warnings for investors. The 2-trillion baht infrastructure project has been put on hold, while companies aim to boost local investment and domestic consumption. The protests from farmers also endanger Thailand’s rice markets by chasing away certain consumers.
In security, the past weekend witnessed three attacks in protest areas which killed young children and other bystanders. Since the police attempts to reclaim rally sites, the situation has experienced grenade attacks, shootings, and arson. More cases of child victims are showing in the Southern Thailand unrest. One particular case involving three brothers, younger than 12 years, remains unsolved and is upsetting a local community.
Politics
In hopes of blocking support for each other’s campaigns, both the caretaker government and the anti-government protesters aim to cut their rival’s financial sources. The caretaker government used the Centre for Maintaining Peace and Order (CMPO) to block funding sources of the People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC), but the PDRC responded with a massive push of boycotting Shinawatra-owned businesses.
On Thursday, Suthep Thausguban, leader of the anti-government protesters, challenged the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) to reveal themselves and show support for the caretaker government. In response, the UDD’s 4,000 leaders gathered at the Chalerm Phra Kiat sports stadium in Nakhon Ratchasima for a “war drum” meeting and announced it would continue its political activities against four main targets – the PDRC led by Suthep Thaugsuban, the independent agencies of the aristocratic elite, the judicial system, and the use of armed forces for a coup. Mr. Jatuporn Promphan, a UDD leader, stated that the red-shirts will converge on roads in Bangkok when they are ready. The meeting intended to discuss strategy and coordinate plans for activities across the country.
Due to anti-government blockades, the eight southern provinces of Thailand were unable to provide candidate registrations for the election earlier this month. Yet the Pheu Thai Party warned they would file a complaint with the police if the Election Commission (EC) fails to complete the February 2 Election with complementary elections. A debate has emerged about whether the EC has the authority to organize another registration for election candidates in the South and set a new poll date. The Pheu Thai Party has argued that it cannot issue another royal decree for a new election after the previous one in December.
Protest leader Suthep claims the political situation will be resolved by next week. He upholds that the past four months of protests have been successful since they have pushed Yingluck into hiding, but he nevertheless strives to continue pressuring her until she steps down. Last week, he asked supporters to push the boycott against Shinawatra-linked businesses. The phone company, AIS, saw 1,400 clients cancelling their contracts for a competitor service although the Shin Group had sold the business to a Singaporean company in 2006. This past weekend also experienced some violence among protesters as a shooting and grenade attack occurred against an anti-government rally in Khao Saming distrct of Trat which killed two young children. On Sunday night, there was another grenade attack against a crowd of pedestrians and vendors in Ratchaprasong, in front of the Big C supercenter near Central World. Suthep blames the government and its “lackeys”, servants of the Thaksin regime, for the violence. Caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra stayed at a safe house for days before emerging at the funeral of a police officer who was killed in the Phan Fah incident on Rachadamnern Avenue last week. Yingluck condemned the violence and defined it as terrorist attacks, calling for full investigations.
On February 20th, Suvarnabhumi Airport expected 5,000 farmers from the central provinces to gather and protest against the government which failed to keep a promise to make payments for the rice-pledging scheme. A smaller group of farmers camped in front of the Commerce Ministry on February 17, but they have yet to receive their request money. Before reaching Bangkok, the thousands of farmers suddenly turned to return home. Leader Chada Thaiset, a former Chartthaipattana Party MP for Uthai Thani, stated politicians promised the government would start paying installments by next week and deliver all dues within six weeks. These reports have not however eased speculations that the farmers are being used as a political tool. (Bangkok Post, The Nation)
Economy
As the caretaker government tries its best to repeat the mantra of protests in Bangkok not having an effect on the Thai economy, rating agencies and economists predict low growth for the country in 2014. The caretaker Prime Minister Ms. Shinawatra posted a message on social media stating that Thailand is still an attractive alternative for investors. It is however undeniable that the massive public spending programmes, such as the 2 trillion baht infrastructure project, that were presented as a compensation for the unstable global market and economic slump in key export markets, are on hold for now and unlikely to ever be carried out. Credit rating agency Moody’s has predicted low real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, at around 3 %, in 2014 and low medium-term consequences for the economy – on condition that the political situation is normalised from the second half of 2014. (Bangkok Post)
Anti-government protesters have meanwhile started attacking business that have, or have had, connections with the Shinawatra family. The telecommunications company Advanced Info Service Pcl (AIS) was one of the targeted businesses of the past week although it no longer has any connection with the Yingluck family, as the company was quick to point out in a text message sent to all of its clients. The Bank of Thailand has hinted that it may decrease the policy interest rate to boost local investment and domestic consumption to keep the economy running smoothly despite the current political situation. (National News Bureau of Thailand, World Bulletin)
Rice has also been in the spotlight as disgruntled rice farmers directed their tractors towards Bangkok and threatened to ‘visit’ the airport and protest in the capital unless they received guarantees that they would be paid the money that the Shinawatra government has pledged to them. Although they turned around before reaching Bangkok, giving the caretaker government a 6-week respite to pay them, criticism is now coming not only from internal allegations of corruption within the rice pledging scheme but also from abroad. A senior trade ministry official from Indonesia has signaled that there are signs of dumping from Thai rice suppliers. According to these reports, the stockpiling of rice that was bought at above-market prices have now led suppliers to sell off rice at very low prices to the Indonesian market. Thailand, the world’s second-largest rice exporter, is looking for new markets for its rice produce. A new partner could be the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), according to the Thai ambassador to Iraq. The Thai economy is highly dependent on rice exports and Thai authorities have offered to invest in the energy sector in Kurdistan if exports can be augmented. The ambassador was quoted as saying that “We [Thailand] could supply Iraq with enough rice every year. Therefore, Iraqi farmers don’t need to bother planting rice.” (Reuters, Rudaw.net)
Security
Several violent incidents have occurred in the rally sites in Bangkok. The most recent incident, a bomb attack occurred near the Ratchadamri stage. On February 23rd, at approximately 5pm, a bomb was thrown near street vendors in front of the Big C Super Center. 22 people were injured, and a four year old boy and 40 year old woman were killed in the attack. The National Security Council Chief stated that the government were not responsible for the attack and claimed that extremists under the guise of the protesters were responsible for the blast in Trat and Bangkok. UN secretary Ban Ki Moon raised concern over the recent attacks, condoned any actions against the democratic rights of Thai people, and offered the UN’s assistance to mediate the conflict.
In Khao Saming, Trat, a bomb attack occurred at an anti-government rally killing a five year old girl and injuring 35 people. PDRC spokeman in Trat, announced that the attackers must not have been a local. The children victims of the recent attacks have raised concern by the United Nations and UNICEF, stating that the rally sites should be “child-free”.
The Human Rights Commissioner’s private clinic in Ubon Ratchatani, was targeted by arsonists , as the Human Rights Commission was investigating the clashes between police and anti-government protesters in the Pha Fah Lilat bridge violence. Other similar attacks have occurred as a Thammasat lecturer and chairman of the Anti-Corruption Organization’s homes were also targeted by vandalists and armed assailants. The CMPO was also a target, where an M79 grenade was lauched into the nearby petrol station. The property was damaged without any casualties.
The attacks have escalated following the police’s attempt to reclaim protest areas earlier in the month. On February 14th, the Center for Maintaining Peace and Order (CMPO) announced “Operation Valentine” as an “ongoing quest” to take back particular rally sites. Violent attacks have erupted at rally stages in Chaeng Wattana and at Phan Fah Lilat Bridge where shootings and bomb attacks erupted in response to the police’s attempt to reclaim the rally site. PDRC member, Thaworn Senneam, filed a petition against the CMPO for breaking the people’s right to peaceful and constitutional assembly. The Civil Court ruled in favor of the anti-government protesters on February 20th. The judgment prohibits the government from exercising measures announced under the emergency decree invoked on January 21. This limits the government from dispersing the protestors, from entering state premises, confiscating chemical substances used by protestors, and removing barriers put up by the protestors as protection barriers or closing certain traffic routes. CMPO director, Chalerm Yoodumrong responded that the center will still proceed to clear rally areas where violence has erupted.
Situations of violence in the South have led to more child victims. The latest attack in Kabang district of Yala Province, a motorcycle drive-by shooting killed three civilians and severely injuring a six year old boy. In a drive-by shooting in Bacho District, Narathiwat province, saw three brothers shot dead. In another drive-by shooting incident in Pattani province, thirteen civilians were killed including a nine year old boy and his mother. The boy’s eleven year old sister sustained severe attacks. This has sparked concern on the increasing amount of attacks on children, as there have been 62 child deaths and 374 injured in the area since 2004.
(Bangkok Post, The Nation)
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