Summary
In politics, the Constitutional Court has accepted a request by the PDRC to review Yingluck’s transfer of Thawil Pliensri to PM advisor in 2011, which could potentially lead to her forced removal along with her entire Cabinet. The Peu Thai Party attacks this as being a conspiracy to install an unelected Premier, and also brings charges against Suthep for rebellion. Read on for more on these developments, in addition to figures in a recent public opinion poll on the crisis.
In security, the past few weeks have witnessed attacks in Southern Thailand unfounded in the number of casualties and damage, but after a conference in Malaysia, peace facilitators vow to continue with negotiations and peace processes between all sides. In the capital, violent attacks continue as there appears little hope for ending the political turmoil.
In economics, Thailand is urged by Nobel Laureate to increase social enterprise investment. NESBD board has been asked to aid the declining economy. Tax levels among the wealthy expected to take place soon. The 2-trillion baht infrastructure project is finally set to begin. Upcoming ASEAN Economic Community expects higher wages and pressures Thailand to improve certain resources. Increased quantity of Thai rice is to be sold at lower prices.
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(Bangkok Post)
Politics
On Wednesday April 2, the Constitutional Court accepted a request to review Yingluck’s decision to transfer Thawil Pliensri from the post of National Security Council (NSC) Secretary-General to PM Advisor in 2011, which a group of senators claimed violated Sections 182 (7) and 268 of the constitution and was done for her own benefit. Thawil was replaced by Yingluck’s brother-in-law Pol Gen Priewphan Damapong. In one of the biggest threats ever posed to Yingluck’s government, a decision by the court that this move was unlawful, would result in the removal of both the Prime Minister and her entire Cabinet. Yingluck claims that his removal was done in accordance with legal procedures and urges a fair consideration. She was given a period of 15 days to provide her defence, and the Court is expected to make their decision at the beginning of May, along with the NACC decision on the rice-pledging scheme. (Bangkok Post)
In the same Court meeting, Chalerm Yubamrung (caretaker Labour Minister and Centre for the Administration of Peace and Order (Capo) Director), filed a petition requesting the PDRC (People’s Democratic Reform Committee) to disband its protests, as they violate Section 68 of the Constitution for not remaining peaceful and weapons-free. His request, however, was refused by the judges for further consideration. The Court claimed that there were not enough grounds for considering violations within the protests, and that leaders of the PDRC are already facing criminal legal charges. (Bangkok Post, The Nation, National News Bureau of Thailand)
Pheu Thai Party warned that the Court’s acceptance of the Case against Yingluck is instrumental in the opposition’s desire to put in place an unelected Premier, and warned the Court not to push its authoritative powers in this ‘politically motivated’ move. The PDRC, however, claimed these accusations to be ungrounded and made to put pressure on the judges. Both the People’s Democratic Reform Committee and the pro-government Red Shirts, organized by the UDD (United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship) plan to stage a mass rally on the day the Court makes the ruling on Yingluck, with officials warning of potential violence during the events, whatever the outcome. Also, on April 5, the UDD Red Shirts staged a mass pro-government rally on the streets of Bangkok against the opposition’s move to take over the government without elections. Estimates varied as to the turnout, with the Bangkok Post quoting about 80,000-100,000 on Saturday afternoon. Leader of the UDD claimed this to be a ‘warm-up’ for the rallies planned after Songkran and in conjunction with the Court’s ruling. (Bangkok Post)
The Pheu Thai Party is filing charges against Suthep Thaugsuban, the PDRC’s Secretary-General on accounts of treason and rebellion, after Suthep claimed that when Yingluck is toppled from government he will personally decide on a new candidate for Premier, and bring said candidate for Royal endorsement. This has been interpreted as giving himself sovereign powers that can usually only be endorsed through legitimate elections. Thailand’s constitution states that the Prime Minister must be an MP and be selected in the House only, naturally leaving many questions unknown about what will happen if Yingluck and her Cabinet are forced out. (The Nation, National News Bureau of Thailand)
In recent polls carried out between April 17 and April 19, a majority (80.57%) of Thais were shown to believe that the political situation is at a critical stage, due to violence, loss of life, and damage to property. 55.63% believed economics has been badly affected and living costs have risen, and 45.39% believed that all sides should partake in talks to come to an agreement soon. (Bangkok Post)
Lastly, and in the most recent news, Thaksin has stated that the Shinawatra family is willing to step down from politics if all sides can come to an agreement which encompasses justice and peace. For fear of the situation turning more violent, Thaksin urged the Red Shirts not to directly confront the opposition, and also warned of a potential coup following the Court’s decision on the caretaker Prime Minister. (Bangkok Post)
(Bangkok Post)
Security
The past few weeks in Southern Thailand have seen an unparalleled amount of injuries and damage. The first of the fatal attacks happened on April 2, in Yala’s Banning Sata District, when one village Head and his two female assistants were shot in their vehicle by suspected insurgents. One of the assistants was beheaded, which is the first time this has happened to a female since 2009. The victims were all from Ban Kasangnai village. Four suspects have been arrested in connection with the attack, after the police raided a house in Tambon Tanor Putae of Bannang Sata on April 10. A second attack took place the next day on April 3, when a female defense volunteer, aged fifty-one, was shot at whilst riding home on her motorbike, in Pattani’s Nong Chik district. (Bangkok Post)
In a separate attack, on the afternoon of Sunday April 6, four bombs exploded simultaneously in the centre of Yala’s town, all within close proximity of each other. One male was killed and at least twenty-eight wounded, and many shops, commercial buildings, and houses destroyed. The next day, April 7, witnessed a further four attacks, damaging two 7/11 shops, Yala’s Office of Non-formal and Informal Education, and a groceries warehouse, which was used to stockpile products for distribution in the south. This time, however, there were no injuries or fatalities. Col Pramote said that the police, community leaders, and ISOC officials are working closely together to gain intelligence on the insurgents, and to review security measures in Yala’s centre which had not witnessed attacks in two years. So far, six men have been detained in connection with the bombings. Overall, the attacks are said to have caused around 154 million Baht in damage, which included 50 houses, 3 motorcycles, and 15 cars. Furthermore, residents have been reporting on how demoralized and hopeless the attacks have left them, with many considering leaving the area for good. (Bangkok Post)
On Friday, April 18, another attack took place but this time against a wanted insurgent and his 6 year old son, both of whom were shot dead in Yala province. The man was thought to have been part of an insurgent group, with several arrest warrants, including one for murder, held against him. On April 21, another two children fell victim to the southern violence, in Tambon Bannang Sata. A couple and their two-year old niece were shot dead in their car, while their twelve-year old nephew was injured and taken to hospital. The perpetrators are believed to belong to Runda Kumpulan Kecil (RKK) separatist group, who are active in Yala district, and reports have quoted that they sought revenge against the couple’s son who was a local defence volunteer. Authorities have speculated that this could be revenge for the man and son shot on Friday 18, but nothing remains certain. (Bangkok Post)
Malaysia’s peace talks facilitator, Datuk Seri Ahmad Zamzamin Hasim, vowed during a seminar focusing on Southern Thailand’s peace process on Wednesday 2, that dialogue with the Southern insurgents would continue despite the obstacles posed by the current political turmoil and protests in Thailand’s capital and around. The seminar was held in a university in Malaysia’s Kedah state and was attended by over 100 people, including students, academics, and representatives from three separatist groups – Pattani United Liberation Organisation, the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), and the Barisan Islam Pembebasan Pattani. Mr Zamzamin claimed that the past year had witnessed distrust on both sides, opposition to dialogue from various groups, and an inability, and unwillingness of the Caretaker government to proceed with the process, but if both sides decided to meaningfully cooperate, it could go on. (Bangkok Post)
In the capital, the political turmoil between the pro-government and anti-government protestors has resulted in further violent incidents. On April 5, around 2.15am, a bomb was detonated near Parus Gawan Palace in Bangkok’s Dusit district, when an unidentified man placed the bomb near the palace as he rode by on his motorcycle. Fortunately there were no injuries, and the matter is being investigated. Furthermore, two soldiers were wounded after being shot at while on patrol duty in Dusit district. Disagreements over the culprits have arisen, with the soldiers claiming it to be the act of the Network of Students and People for the Reform of Thailand (NSPRT) Guards while protecting their rally site, after a grenade was launched into the crowd. The NSPRT denies any responsibility. (Bangkok Post)
In other news, Thailand celebrated its annual Songkran festival, or Thai New Year, from April 11 – April 17. The country witnessed traditional festivities to welcome in the New Year, but as is the case every year, injury and death rates are high. During the seven days, 322 people were killed (down 0.32% from last year), 3,225 people injured (up 6.09% from last year), and the overall number of registered accidents amounted to 2,992 (up 5.8%). Drunk driving is reported to be the biggest cause of accidents (36.76%), followed by speeding (24.47%). (Bangkok Post)
(Bangkok Post)
Economics
Famed Bangladeshi economist and Nobel Laureate, Muhammad Yunus, recently addressed a group of partners and possible Thai investors at an event held by the Yunus Center at the Asian Institute of Technology and the Thai Social Enterprise Office in Bangkok. His main focus was to highlight the importance of social business promotion and getting young people, who often suffer unemployment, involved by becoming social entrepreneurs. Yunus is well-known for helping to extend credit to the impoverished of Bangladesh, now he is urging Thailand to develop a small business fund. Young people, who can be very influential in business ideas as they are able to develop new methods of thought and adapt to changing challenges, could use this social business funding to create their own companies. Potential areas of social entrepreneurship such as safe drinking water, mobile healthcare, knowledge management and low income housing are growing in demand and importance. (The Nation)
Following the six months of political unrest, economy, investment and confidence have been declining nationally. The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce has stated that consumer confidence will reach a 15-year low if a working government is not in place in the second half of the year. Currently, consumer confidence is at a nearly 13-year low due to the unstable politics and declining economy. Caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra requested a committee to analyze the most critical issues hurting the economy. The government needs to work alongside and cooperate with the private sector and consumers to avoid greater national economic problems. The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) has since been asked to lead the efforts to resist the falling economy. Examples of these efforts include program progress monitoring and analyzing the impact of stalls in free trade initiatives. (Bangkok Post)
Tax inspections are expected to be held by the Revenue Department in an effort to increase tax revenue which is estimated to be the lowest in 7 years this fiscal year. Investigation of taxes paid by wealthy owners of weak earning and low asset businesses will follow after interest was piqued when the Department found that some of these owners could afford 40-million-baht homes but had low company assets. Electricity levels will also be monitored to compare productivity levels with taxes being paid. (Bangkok Post)
A 2-trillion baht project to promote infrastructure will soon be under way. Its first activity is expected to be a 4-lane road project that would expand 4-lane roads by 14,741 km. At the moment, there are 12, 444 km of finished 4-lane roads in Thailand. The proposed 4-lane road project is aimed at lowering the country’s logistics costs. All megaprojects under the infrastructure plan were postponed due to the Constitutional Court verdict that the 2-trillion baht borrowing bill was unconstitutional. Therefore, to initiate the infrastructure project, the Finance ministry has borrowed under the public debt law, public-private partnerships and infrastructure funds from the annual budget. (Bangkok Post)
In order for Thailand to capitalize and prosper from the approaching ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) several national resources must be improved from skilled personnel to infrastructure. The German-Thai Chamber of Commerce (GTCC) sees the lack of skilled technicians, connecting infrastructure to neighboring nations and secure energy as serious areas for improvement to maintain competiveness in the AEC. Shortage of skilled technicians has been an issue in Thailand for several years, however in the upcoming years the demand will be even greater. Although Thailand is centrally located in ASEAN, transport between member countries must be enhanced and increased to maximize benefits. The recruitment consultancy organization, Robert Walters Plc., urged the improvement of English-language proficiency among Thai-employees to reach the level of competition it will meet in AEC. English language skills and fluency is one of the weakest points for Thai employees, and will be crucial to remain competitive in the international labor market which will open with AEC. In addition, looking for new work will be desirable for many when AEC sets in, as salaries for those who change jobs are expected to increase 20-25%. (Bangkok Post)
Thailand is expected to export 8.7 million tonnes of rice in 2014, which would make it the world’s second largest exporter of rice after India. Current reserves of rice are estimated to be around 18 million tonnes. About 400 billion baht was lost due to decreased sales caused by the government’s price increases which caused Thai rice to lose competitiveness and its position of largest rice exporter in the world. After the failed rice scheme, low sales in 2013 and losing revenue, Thai rice will be sold at market price. Lower sale price and growing demand from other countries, in particular China, will greatly increase sales this year. However, declining prices have the potential of creating a price war with other top exporters, India and Vietnam. This could lead to decreased sales revenue but also a decline in inflation throughout Asia with lower food prices. (Bangkok Post)
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