Summary
In politics, the nationwide curfew has been lifted. The NCPO and Gen Prayuth have begun to clarify the planned steps that will be taken to restore the country to normalcy. While many Cambodian workers retreated due to crackdown scare, assurance from Thailand and cheaper passport prices have begun to draw them back into the country. The NCPO promises to regulate migrant workers and stop human trafficking leaders just as Thailand is condemned as being a Tier 3 trafficking country according to the TIP report. Suthep has reported frequent correspondence with Gen Prayuth, which Prayuth denies. EU is urging democracy by cutting ties to Thailand. NCPO states neutralism but many still feel the inequality. A new, official anti-coup makers group has been established outside Thai borders.
In security, NCPO has lifted curfew however martial law is to remain. Police have issued arrest warrants for Rama IX Rd explosion suspects. Large amount of weapons found in Ayutthaya. Random violence continues in the deep South of Thailand. Warning issued about potential increase in car bombs before Ramadan. General Prayuth has taken charge of solution planning in the South of Thailand. Former director-general of the Central Institute of Forensic Science (CIFS) has been reinstated to in hopes of improving the situation in the South.
In economy, since the military coup, the army appears to be making moves to encourage national reconciliation, decrease corruption, and boost the Thai economy, targeting areas such as illegal gambling and tax fraud. As the political situation settles, Kasikorn Research Centre has predicted higher growth estimates than previously forecast, but in a negative blow to Thailand’s economy and external relations, the EU has announced its suspension of the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, until democratic rights are restored.
Politics
(Source: Bangkok Post)
On Friday, 13 June the curfew from 12am to 4am was lifted in Bangkok and across the nation shortly after Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha made his weekly televised address. The curfew had previously been lifted in 25 provinces being mostly tourist areas. During his weekly address to the people he also clarified the proposed timeline of events to take place in government. He stated that an interim government will be determined and in place in September, with an interim constitution and legislative body to be formed in October. This would end the direct rule of the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) that took over on May 22. Gen Prayuth, NCPO chairman, additionally stated that the plan is to have the interim government and legislative body in charge of the country for about a year. After reforms, elections can take place. With regards to the rice farmers, Gen Prayuth intends to have them repaid on June 22. (Bangkok Post)
The NCPO has stated that it will begin to target human traffickers, planning to go after trafficking leaders and officials, and regulate migrant workers. This announcement was made during Gen Prayuth’s, weekly report on Friday June 20. At about the same time the United States announced that Thailand had fallen to a Tier 3 human trafficking country, after remaining Tier 2 and being warned to take action for four years. Tier 3 is the lowest level on the Trafficking in Persons (TIP) report and puts Thailand among countries such as North Korea, Syria, and Iran in human trafficking numbers. This could cause sanctions and aid cuts to be taken against Thailand. In addition to loss of national aid from the US, trade and consumption could be affected with companies and individuals reconsidering investing in and buying Thai products. Some Thai officials such as foreign affairs secretary, Sihasak Phuangketkeow, have condemned the U.S. for measuring Thailand’s performance and demand it take into consideration the recent efforts Thailand has made. (Bangkok Post)
The NCPO has urged those working in the justice system and law force to be impartial and avoid taking any actions that could be seen as deepening social divides. However, red-shirt leader in Udon Thani, Kwanchai Praiphana, claims he was treated unfairly by military on Thursday, June 12. He stated that People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) supporters were allowed to demonstrate while the military silenced red-shirt supporters. He questions how reconciliation will become with the current inequality. (Bangkok Post)
Many Cambodian workers returned to Thailand this past week to work as fears of a military crackdown and arrest were subdued. Thai troops and Cambodian authorities assured workers that there would be no crackdown. Additionally Cambodia cut the price of passports from $135 to $4 on June 20, making it affordable for Cambodians to work in Thailand legally. (Bangkok Post)
On June 23, Pol Gen Somyos Poompanmuang, charged with the suppression of political rallies, announced a 500 baht reward for anyone who can provide “useful” photos of anti-coup activity participants. He stated that police would not use force against demonstrators, but talk to them so they will “understand and adjust their attitude.” Pol Gen Somyos said small amounts of anti-coup activity could create disorder, and that demonstrators should take into consideration the fact that most people support the NCPO’s work. In a Suan Dusit Poll, the NCPO received an approval rating of 8.82 out of 10 and a National Institute for Development Administration (NIDA) poll reported that a majority of the poll participants, 41.30 percent, said that the NCPO should nominate Gen Prayuth for the post of provisional government prime minister. (Bangkok Post)
PDRC leader, Suthep Thaugsuban, stated at a dinner of about 100 PDRC supporters on Saturday, June 21 that he has been advising and chatting with Gen Prayuth about ousting Thaksin Shinawatra’s influence and allies since the political violence that occurred in 2010. While Suthep has promised not to return to politics, he said the PDRC would create a new fund to promote national reform and aid victims of the demonstrations, holding weekly dinners at the Pacific Club, the fund’s new office. In response to Suthep’s claims of common correspondence with Gen Prayuth, Gen Prayuth denied the private exchange of messages prior to the May 22 coup. (Bangkok Post)
The NCPO is urging the EU to understand the need for the coup. Currently, the EU has curtailed diplomatic ties with Thailand, trying to pressure the nation to return to democracy. After a meeting in Luxembourg on June 23, official visits and partnerships will be put on hold until democracy is restored. The EU is calling for credible and inclusive elections, along with respecting people’s freedoms and rights. (Bangkok Post)
Former Pheu Thai party leader, Charupong Ruangsuwan, created the first official anti-coup opposition group called the “Organisation of Free Thais for Human Rights and Democracy” on June 24. He will run the group from an unnamed country in self-exile. He has decried, what he sees as, the junta’s violation of power, abuse of democracy and removal of human rights. The group will be run outside of Thailand and provide moral support for anti-coup groups in and out of Thailand. (Bangkok Post)
Security
(Source: Bangkok Post)
NCPO stated June 14 that the curfew was lifted to boost the atmosphere among the public and tourists but that it could be reinstated at anytime if violence or political movement erupts in an area. The martial law will remain in place stated an NCPO spokeswoman, however authorities will first enforce normal laws for most crimes. (Bangkok Post)
Police have issued 3 arrest warrants for men suspected of involvement in the grenade attack that took place by Rama IX Rd on June 13 prior to the curfew lift. The attack caused damage to several cars and a police kiosk but no one was injured. Previously arrested red-shirt gaurd, Vichien Toomtaku, told police the other men were involved also and hired him to throw the grenade to make Bangkok seem unstable still. (Bangkok Post, Thai PBS)
Weapons, including M79 grenade launcher with grenades, hand grenades, an AK-47 with ammunition and bullet proof vests, were found in a canal in Ayutthaya during a house search on June 15. Renter of the house, Wattana Sapwichien had been summoned to report to the NCPO after suspicion of possessing weapons. Police believe the weapons can be linked to him and an investigation is taking place. (Bangkok Post)
In Pattani, a woman was killed and two men injured on Sunday, June 15 in a gun attack. The incident took place in front of grocery store where the three were shopping when two motorcycles with 3 men opened fire on them before fleeing the scene. On June 16, two volunteers were slightly injured in Narathiwat by a bomb explosion. The bomb was planted along the side of the road and detonated as they walked passed. Also, on June 16 in Narathiwat’s Chanae district a bomb trap killed a motorcyclist. The attack happened as four police explosives disposal team members were traveling in two vehicles nearby. The explosion killed the passerby motorcyclist and damaged the two police vehicles, but left the police officers unharmed. In Songkhla’s Thepa district, a grocer was wounded and his wife injured when a gunman accompanied by 3 others opened fire on them. The men set fire to the shop before fleeing. Neighbors helped put out the fire and take care of the injured woman (Bangkok Post)
The Police Operational Centre for the Southern Border Provinces’ car theft prevention centre warned on Monday, June 16 that 40 vehicles had been stolen. These vehicles may be turned into car bombs. The Centre warned that the vehicles may be used by insurgents before the fasting month of Ramadan, which will begin later this month. They also warned that past militants used vehicles to make car bombs which were used against military, police and civilian targets during this time. The vehicles were stolen from residents and government offices in Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat, and Songkhla. (Bangkok Post)
On Saturday, June 21, Abdulkolik Cheha, a villager of Khao Tum and military informant, was killed on his way home from Panare district of Pattani. A group of hidden men opened fire on him, killing him instantly. Police assume militants are responsible for the attack since Abdulkolik had been a military informant. (Bangkok Post)
On Sunday June 22 two rangers were killed and five others injured in a gunfight after an unknown group of militants attacked their vehicle in the Si Sakhon district of Narathiwat. The militants fled the scene when reinforcements arrived. The seven injured soldiers were rushed to the hospital, were two later died. (Bangkok Post)
General Prayuth Chan-ocha has taken control of restructuring plans to solve issues in the deep South of Thailand. Solutions will be separated into 3 levels. Gen Prayuth will develop new policies to take place from 2015 to 2017 at the policy-making level. The national Security Council (NSC) will act as the general’s adviser. After, at the level of turning policy into action, a working group will be responsible. This group will be led by army Gen Udomet Sitabutr and NSC secretary general Thawil Pliensri. Solutions, covering security and development, will be implemented by the working group through the Internal Security Operations Command (Isoc) and the Southern Border Provinces Administrative Centre. The third level will be consisted of Isoc handling the operational level across the South. Currently, Isoc plans to continue to remove troops from the South and strengthen local volunteers in hopes of gaining support and trust from residents. (Bangkok Post)
The NCPO re-appointed Khunying Porntip Rojanasunan as director-general of the Central Institute of Forensic Science (CIFS) in hopes of enhancing forensic science investigation and solving problems in the South of Thailand. Forensic science officials had been removed from the South before, and local authorities were required to work with the police. DNA tests were not allowed to be sent to the military. This personnel change is an effort to bring the southern insurgency to a halt. (Bangkok Post)
Economy
(Source: Bangkok Post)
It has been announced that the Revenue Department will begin an investigation into tax evasion, targeting owners of residential properties worth over 40 million baht. They aim to catch those whom they believe may be under-valuing their property to evade paying the correct tax. Anyone owning cars worth over 3 million baht will also be forced to report their possessions. The Land Transport Department has already been requested to provide lists of owners of luxury cars, who will be contacted by the department. Residences on golf courses are coming under particular spotlight. A Geographic Information System will be used as a mapping tool to evaluate the tax payments of each household member in certain areas, and to increase the efficiency of tax collection. The department stated that this is a move to increase tax efficiency, fairness and transparency, aiming to eliminate those who evade tax and the injustice this causes to those who pay. Revenue officials of various regions already have ideas of who may be guilty of tax evasion, but the challenge remains of whether they would be willing to confront wealthy and influential individuals in this sensitive matter. (Bangkok Post)
Kasikorn Research Centre (K-research) has made a revision to earlier estimates of economic growth, from between 1.8% and 2.6% to 1.3% and 2.4%. Key economic engines are expected to see positive boosts in the latter part of the year as a result of the improving business climate, increasing confidence in private sector investment, and higher demand for domestic consumption. The institute views this boost as a result of the junta’s quick action regarding economic policies. The six-month deadlock during the political protests has been lifted, state agencies reopened, and business is returning to normal, giving previously wary investors greater confidence to continue their activities. K-research also forecasts GDP to rise from 1.8% to 2.3% for the full year, and for government spending to accelerate. (Bangkok Post)
It is unclear at this stage which economic policies the military will retain from the previous Shinawatra government, but it is evident that they are pushing to co-opt certain populist policies of the past. Tax cuts are being extended and the ambitious infrastructure plans re-launched, such as the neglected rail network, and the multibillion dollar blueprint for Thailand’s flood defenses. The army also repaid around $2.7 billion to the 800,000 plus farmers who lost out on the rice subsidy scheme of the previous government, and are making further moves to revive the debilitated agricultural sector. Furthermore, in a bid of reconciliation and improving sentiment amongst Thais, the government paid World Cup rights-holders $13 million for all games to be shown live on free-air television shows. Some have criticized these populist ‘quick-fixes’, and are waiting for time to show their success or failure. (The Wall Street Journal)
Since the start of the World Cup, and expectations of an increase in gambling in Thailand, the military government has cracked down on the illegal activity in an attempt to ‘restore the country’s image’. Between June 9 and June 21, the police arrested 1,677 people taking part in World Cup gambling, and shut down 675 illegal betting websites. It is still expected that Thais will spend an estimated 45 billion baht on betting during the world cup. Although the national lottery and horse racing are the only forms of legal gambling in Thailand, the habit is still perceived as a large problem, and one in which the military government is seeking to address. (Reuters)
In a blow to Thailand’s economy and reputation since the May 22 coup, the European Union (EU) has decided to delay signing an agreement which would bring economic and political ties with Thailand closer. Until the military government restores democracy and respect of human rights, the EU has suspended official visits to and from Thailand and refused to press on with the signing of the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement between the two countries, which, once ratified, would boost links in tourism, employment, education, migration, transport, and environment. The total amount of goods traded between Thailand and the EU during 2013 came to around 32 billion Euros, a number which was set to increase if a bilateral trade agreement was to be signed. However, negotiations regarding this will likely be affected too. Other factors such as military cooperation between the two parties are also threatened with this recent drawback. (Reuters) Key figures in Thailand’s private sector, however, claim that the EU’s response would have no lasting damaging impact, and Mr. Suphan, Chairman of the Federation of the Thai Industries, stated that trade between the two parties would continue. Thai production and exports would not take a big hit as the EU only amounts to 10% of the market space. (Bangkok Post)
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