On August 30, 2024, the HDFF team attended a virtual discussion, “Unraveling the Crisis in Myanmar: Current Status and Future Trajectories.”, hosted by CPG’s Peace & Security Center (CPSC).
CPG is established in 2009 as part of the German federal government´s prestigious initiative of excellence, the German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG) at Thammasat University is one of five Centers of Excellence worldwide.
Speakers
Anthony Davis– Bangkok-based Security Analyst
Sanjay Gathia– Founder & Director of the Borders & Broader Conversations Initiative (BBCinitiative).
Htwe Htwe Thein, PhD- Associate Professor of international business at the Faculty of Business and Law, Curtin University, Western Australia.
Jason Tower– Country Director for the Burma program at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP).
The following is a brief overview of the discussions’ contents.
Anthony Davis reported that Phase 2 of the operation 1027, an ongoing offensive by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, has seen significant fighting in the ethnic areas of Northern Shan state, with the violence spilling over into central Myanmar. The conflict is now moving south towards Mandalay city and there has been increased insurgent activity noted in the Sagaing region. This shift indicates that the conflict is spreading from ethnic areas into the heartland of Myanmar, posing a significant threat to the military’s survival.
According to Davis, the last two months and the remaining period until the end of the season, are expected to be decisive in determining the outcome of the war. The State Administration Council (SAC) forces have been reactive, suffering losses in both equipment and personnel. Davis suggested that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has an interest in negotiating ceasefires and preventing the continuation of the conflict, but suggested that political agreements or negotiations would be insufficient in resolving the greater internal conflicts.
Jason Tower discussed the cooperation among ethnic groups in Myanmar, highlighting their shared interest in weakening the military and eradicating the military dictatorship, with some exceptions. Formalized cooperation is evident between the Karenni and Kachin groups. The “Three Brotherhood” alliance has become a major source of training and supplies for People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) in adjacent territories, with a strong alignment emerging between the Brotherhood and the Mandalay PDF. However, in Chin state, there is a division between the Chin Brotherhood and the Chin National Front (CNF), he added.
Htwe Htwe Thein highlighted the widespread negative effects of the economy on every civilian in the country. The government’s tight control over banking has adversely impacted businesses. Heavy fines and arrests for those involved in importing goods have led to shortages of essential items like medicines and fertilizers. While the general population suffers, those involved in patronage and corruption are thriving. Additionally, foreign governments are refusing visas to Burmese people who hope to study or work abroad, which further exacerbates the situation.
Rumors of attempted coup
➢ Tower reported that the Border Guard Force is estimated to be stealing around $9 billion USD per year, although the exact figures are unclear. This rampant corruption has severely damaged the reputation and institutions associated with Min Aung Hlaing, who is now considered the most unpopular leader in the country.
➢ Thein noted that military members lack the motivation and desire to fight.
➢ However, Davis observed that battles last for weeks to months, indicating that there is no apparent lack of morale among the troops. Davis believes that Min Aung Hlaing will remain in power until a dramatic event occurs that removes him from his position.
Role of China and India in conflict
Sanjay Gathia noted that India has not engaged significantly with Myanmar since the 1988 Revolution, primarily because India perceived the PRC to be gaining influence in Myanmar. India, with its own history of ethnic armed separatist groups, remains cautious about the events in Myanmar, particularly in the border areas. There is a notable lack of engagement between Indian civil society and Myanmar’s civil society, especially when compared to the more active Thai civil society.
The changing political landscapes in Bangladesh and Myanmar have forced India to rethink its neighborhood approach and its “Look East” policy. There is also a significant amount of disinformation regarding refugees in Manipur, and a lack of representation in think tanks and academia on these issues.
Before the coup, Indian intelligence agencies engaged with ethnic representatives in Myanmar primarily for information-gathering purposes. Currently, India believes that the Burmese military will prevail, indicating a lack of comprehensive understanding and an outdated perspective on the current events and trends in Myanmar.
Tower highlighted the PRC’s significant interests in Myanmar, noting that it is the only source of oil and gas for some Chinese provinces. Myanmar’s strategic location, providing access to the Indian and Pacific Oceans, serves as a crucial lifeline for the PRC in case of conflicts in the South China Sea or Taiwan, which explains the PRC’s investment in infrastructure projects there. However, billions of dollars in Chinese mining interests have been stalled.
The Myanmar military has struggled to address security issues along the Burmese-Chinese border, a task that the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance (MNDA) has managed more effectively. He continued, the PRC is pushing for various actors to collaborate and reach agreements, issuing increasing warnings to the Three Brotherhood alliance to halt their offensives and pressuring them to negotiate. Despite these efforts, Min Aung Hlaing has not heeded the message to cease campaigns in the north, and has allocated limited resources to these efforts.
The PRC aims to dominate the international response and shape the trajectory of the conflict, leveraging its influence to steer outcomes in its favor.
Davis noted that the PRC is deeply worried about the potential collapse of the State Administration Council (SAC) as well as the possibility of the National Unity Government (NUG), which is pro-Western, coming to power. He believes that any political settlement is unlikely because the military class has long seen itself as the defender of the borders and the custodian of the nation’s soul. Therefore, for any resolution to occur, the military needs to be removed.
In a post-conflict society, once the war ends, reconstruction and coordination from the international community will be essential to prevent predatory elements around the border and within the country from exploiting the situation. Davis anticipates 1-2 years of escalated war in the heartland of Myanmar and urges the international community to prepare for the possibility of a more dysfunctional post-war reality.
Tower explained that the PRC is not interested in helping the Myanmar military regain control of lost regions. Instead, it wants the military to focus on negotiating a deal and achieving stability. While the PRC is not overly concerned about the central regions of Myanmar, it is keen on ensuring that Myanmar maintains control over shared border areas. The massive air strikes in Shan state are a significant security concern for China.
As the conflict continues, Myanmar’s society is becoming increasingly militarized, and this trend is expected to persist. Tower predicted a prolonged conflict that will ultimately be resolved on the battlefield. He also highlighted the challenges of demobilization, and the major difficulties associated with economic reconstruction in a post-conflict Myanmar.
What can Thailand do?
Thein emphasized the need for the international community to collaborate in blocking financial transactions from Thailand to Myanmar to prevent indirectly aiding and abetting human rights violations by the junta.
Kasit Piromya pointed out that the PRC and India primarily view the situation through the lens of their own national security agendas, and criticizes the ASEAN community for its inadequate response.
Davis argues that no external player, including ASEAN or the international community, can satisfactorily end the conflict. He believes that a revolution cannot be externally shut down and that the most likely resolution will be an internal one, with the conflict continuing until the collapse of the current regime.
Final Remarks
Gathia emphasized that India must “step up its game” regarding its engagement with Myanmar.
Tower highlighted a report from Doctors Without Borders, which states that 99% of Rohingyas worldwide are either detained or marginalized, further trapped by ongoing hostilities. He also notes the continued influence of transnational crime, which collaborates with the military and some militia groups along the Thai border, impacting the entire world.
Davis predicted an escalation of conflict in the upcoming year. He poses a critical question: Will Chinese influence lead to a quicker collapse of the military, or will it prolong the deadly conflict?
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