Protests in Bangladesh
Mass protests in Bangladesh have led to the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on August 5 and forced her to flee to New Delhi. PM Hasina held office from 1996-2000 and 2008-2024. The Anti-Discrimination Student Movement (ADSM), an organization of university students, was the primary actor leading the protests. The protests initially called for the repeal of a quota system for civil service jobs, which required that 1/3 of positions be set aside for descendants of the Bangladesh Liberation War of 1971. The quotas were cut to 5% by the Supreme Court in July, but the violent and repressive government response to the protests caused the movement to shift to a broader anti-government objective.[i]
The government led party, the Awami League (AL), ordered police to respond to mass protests by issuing strict curfews and a shoot-on-sight order. The administration shut down universities, along with mobile communication and internet services.[ii] Since July, approximately 300 people have died, with several hundred injured. After PM Hasina’s resignation, protestors stormed her residence and destroyed the statue of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the “founding father” of Bangladesh, father of PM Hasina, and founder of the AL.
The military has always had significant influence in Bangladesh. During the recent civil unrest, it maintained a neutral stance and did not suppress protests on behalf of PM Hasina. She was thus unable to maintain power. On August 6, the army assumed temporary authority and announced that the current parliament would be dissolved, an interim government would be formed, and that it was in talks with all political parties and the ADSM.[iii] The military decided to free all people arrested during the recent protests, and President Mohammed Shahabuddin freed Khaleda Zia from house arrest.[iv] Zia is the leader of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and political rival of PM Hasina. Zia’s husband, Ziaur Rahman, founded the BNP and served as President under military rule from 1977 until his assassination by a faction of the army in 1981.
The ADSM has taken a leading role in choosing the interim government. The leader of the ADSM stated, “No government other than the one proposed by the students will be accepted.”[v] The group recommended Nobel laureate, Professor Muhammad Yunus, to become chief advisor to the interim government, which he accepted. Prof. Yunus, who has been an outspoken critic of PM Hasina, was indicted by her administration on charges of embezzlement; however, he has denied all charges, claiming they were politically motivated.
Civil unrest outside Dhaka
Recent violence and civil unrest have not been isolated to the streets of Dhaka. A mob stormed a prison in Narsingdi, allowing 800 inmates to escape.[vi] Textile and garment factories were set on fire outside of the city[vii], and violent clashes have occurred in Lakshmipur and Rajshahi[viii]. A mob set fire to a hotel in Jashore owned by an AL official, killing 25 people.[ix] Throughout the country, mobs and vandals have attacked Hindu homes, places of worship, and businesses. There have been multiple reports of arson attacks against Hindu communities.
Brief historical sketch
Weak institutions, combined with the first past-the-post electoral system, have created a “winner-takes-all” political environment that has fostered corruption and violent political competition in Bangladesh.[x] Since 1991, Bangladesh has only had Hasina and Zia as prime ministers. The two parties have a history of intense political conflict, including calls for mass mobilization, blockades against the incumbent party, suppression of the opposition while in power, and labelling each other as terrorists. The most recent conflict occurred in January 2024 over PM Hasina’s re-election, which left 10 people dead and 25,000 arrested.[xi] There have been claims made internationally that the election was not free and fair, and the BNP rejected the results. This conflict increased tensions leading up to July’s protests.
Economy under PM Hasina and the AL
Under PM Hasina, the expansion of the ready-made-garment industry led to 7% annual GDP growth.[xii] However, growth can also be attributed to the massive amounts of remittances received from the Bangladeshi diaspora population. Bangladesh became of the fastest growing economy in the world; however, inequality rose and conditions for workers were poor. There has been stagnant private sector growth, with government jobs offering higher salaries and more benefits. University students, who led the recent protests, felt economically disenfranchised with little opportunities. This was exacerbated by the quota system. Almost 800,000 university graduates were unemployed in 2023, and the unemployment rate for higher educated people is higher than those with low or no education.[xiii]
Regional fallout
Bangladesh is India’s most consistent ally in South Asia. PM Hasina has personally maintained a strong relationship with India throughout her political career. Hosting PM Hasina in New Delhi has triggered an “India Out” campaign within the country, which could lead to retaliation against Bangladesh’s 19,000 Indian nationals.[xiii] It is unclear whether New Delhi will extradite disgraced PM Hasina to Bangladesh when the time comes. If the BNP takes power, this could stress the countries’ relationship further. India views the BNP’s ties with the Jamaat-e-Islami, an Islamist party which collaborated with Pakistan in committing the Bangladesh genocide in 1971, as a security threat. India has already begun increasing security at the border.
The People’s Republic of China may take the opportunity to secure its financial and geopolitical interests in the region, as incoming leaders may be more willing to create partnerships with China over India. Bangladesh also relies on humanitarian assistance to respond to the Rohingya refugee crisis, which is currently running low. Moving forward, maintaining aid and financial flows is key. The RMG industry, which makes up 83% of the country’s export earnings, has been hit hard by recent events. Western countries may reconsider Bangladesh as an investment destination, with Western clothing companies being directly affected. [xiv]
Outlook
It is unclear how long it will take for the interim government to set up democratic elections. The military will play an important role in the transition period, which could increase its political power moving forward. The BNP may try to fill the political vacuum as the AL faces retaliation. However, this could affect the democratic goals of the protestors, because under Zia and the BNP’s administration, the country was ranked as the most corrupt in the world. Moving forward, retaliation is a serious threat after the AL’s violent crackdown, and the fate of former AL officials and supporters is unclear. After ousting the government, Hindu temples and homes of Hindus were attacked by vandals throughout the country. Religious retaliation may continue, especially if secularism is revoked, which highlights the struggles and significance of maintaining a strong India-Bangladesh relationship.
Constitutionally, an election must be held within 90 days of establishing the interim government. However, with PM Hasina and the AL removed from politics, the state structure has been effectively dismantled, and it is unclear when democratic elections will be held. The 3 main challenges moving forward are to keep law and order, to provide a governance structure, and to satisfy the democratic demands of the student protestors.
Citations:
[i] Al Jazeera. (2024, August 6). Bangladesh Army announces interim government after PM sheikh hasina flees. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/8/5/bangladesh-pm-hasina-quits-and-flees-as-protestors-storm-palace-reports [ii] Alam, J., & Saaliq, S. (2024, July 20). Bangladesh imposes strict curfew with a “shoot-on-sight-order” following deadly protests. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/bangladesh-student-protests-curfew-government-jobs-quota-9af35994b4855ffac9bd962861447cda#:~:text=DHAKA%2C%20Bangladesh%20(AP)%20%E2%80%94,allocation%20of%20civil%20service%20jobs [iii] Adler, N. (2024, August 6). Bangladesh protests updates: Parliament dissolved after Hasina resignation. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/8/6/bangladesh-protests-live-news-students-leaders-to-meet-army-chief [iv] AFP, Dhaka. (2024, August 6). Bangladesh president orders release of Khaleda Zia. The Daily Star. https://www.thedailystar.net/news/bangladesh/news/bangladesh-president-orders-release-khaleda-zia-3670376 [v] Star Digital Report. (2024, August 6). “Prof Yunus to be chief adviser of interim govt.” The Daily Star. https://www.thedailystar.net/news/bangladesh/news/prof-yunus-be-chief-adviser-interim-govt-3670496 [vi] Alam & Saaliq. (2024, July 20). Bangladesh imposes strict curfew [vii] Star Business Report. (2024, August 5). Five textile, garment and Plastic Mills set on fire. The Daily Star. https://www.thedailystar.net/business/news/five-textile-garment-and-plastic-mills-set-fire-3669586 [viii] TBS. (2024, August 5). 11 killed in Lakshmipur, 35 shot in rajshahi. The Business Standard. https://www.tbsnews.net/bangladesh/11-killed-lakshmipur-35-shot-rajshahi-910061 [ix] Singha, A. (2024, August 6). Bangladesh riots: 25 burnt alive as mob sets hotel on fire – CNBC TV18. CNBCTV18. https://www.cnbctv18.com/world/bangladesh-riots-25-burnt-alive-as-mob-sets-hotel-on-fire-19455795.htm [x] Tasnim Shehabuddin, S. (2016). Bangladeshi Politics Since Independence. In Routledge Handbook of Contemporary Bangladesh (1st ed., pp. 17–27). essay, Routledge. [xi] Al Jazeera. (2024b, August 6). Timeline: The rise and fall of Bangladesh PM sheikh hasina. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/8/5/timeline-sheikh-hasinas-reign-ends-after-15-years [xii] Ganguly, S. (2024, August 5). What’s behind Bangladesh’s protest against PM sheikh hasina? | Reuters. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/why-are-there-protests-bangladesh-again-2024-08-05/ [xiii] Tribune Desk. (2023, October 26). Close to 800,000 unemployed graduates in Bangladesh. Dhaka Tribune. https://www.dhakatribune.com/business/329140/close-to-800-000-unemployed-graduates-in [xiv] Dutta Choudhury, S. (2024, August 7). Bangladesh’s uprising creates political vacuum, impacts for broader region. Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. https://www.asiapacific.ca/publication/explainer-bangladeshs-popular-uprising-creates-political-uncertainty [xv] bdnews24. (2005, October 17). Bangladesh billed as most corrupt country for 5th time, 1st lead. https://bdnews24.com/business/bangladesh-billed-as-most-corrupt-country-for-5th-time-1st-lead
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