HDFF WEEKLY REVIEW SPECIAL ADDITITION
A worker keeps watch over a pump draining water from a flooded neighborhood in Bangkok, on November 12, 2011. (Reuters/Chaiwat Subprasom)
Summary
As of December 8th 2011, 675 people have died as a result the floods, with three people remaining missing. Ninety-one districts in the following 13 central provinces remain submerged including Chainat, Ang Thong, Ayutthaya, Lop Buri, Saraburi, Supanburi, Nakhon Pathom, Pathum Thani, Nonthaburi, Samut Sakhon, Nakhon Nayok, Chachoengsao and Bangkok. Nine people have also died in Southern Thailand after flash flooding caused by heavy rains. However, as the flood waters begin to recede in many places, residents are returning home and putting their lives back together. Although the political leadership was unable to collaborate, as the month of November passed, so did the worst of the crisis. Total damage to infrastructure and industry is over 2% of Thailand’s GDP and the total recovery period will take over two years. Rebuilding has become the number one priority. A strong weight has been laid on Thailand to improve disaster management, not only by nationals but regional and global citizens who were affected as well. Thailand is in need of cooperative action to solve the crisis in addition to supporting sustainable water management resources. The success of rejuvenating Thailand relies on political and community will to support transformation and start over. The devastating floods in Thailand have added another dimension to the range of threats to the country and Thai’s cannot afford to mismanage developing a long-term strategy.
Politics
Political and legal struggles over the management of flood controls in Bangkok played out between Phuea Thai, Democrat Bangkok Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra in regards to the sluice gates and sandbag protection walls. After PM Yingluck Shinawatra invoked the disaster law to give herself full power over flood management, Governor Sukhumbhand trumped Yingluck by invoking a clause in the same disaster prevention law, giving himself the final say over the sluice gates and Bangkok protection measures. Over the course of the month, civil uprisings and demonstrators at the gates and protection walls tried to force the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) into opening the sluice gates further, though with limited success. These efforts did keep inner Bangkok dry but prolonged the suffering for those in already flooded areas. PM Yingluck came under heavy fire from both the media and the opposition for her leadership and management skills, or lack thereof. This ultimately led to rumors that she would resign or be replaced, which she instantly denied. Many commentators opined Yingluck’s ability to deliver an appropriate response would make or break the public’s opinion of her administration. While some believe she re-acted much too late, it has not gone unnoticed that Yingluck has maintained control, despite not having any previous political experience.
The APEC forum in Hawaii and the ASEAN Summit in Bali were welcome opportunities for Thai representatives to try and regain international investor confidence by promising, among other things, to set up a better water management system. The ASEAN Head of States agreed to intensify cooperation on climate change as well as mitigation and prevention measures. He further elaborated on long-term flood prevention measures ranging from digging a new floodway between the Central Plains and the sea, to new cities, highways and railways. It remains to be seen if those plans will be followed up with or ever be implemented once flooding related news has diminished in importance and investor confidence is fully restored.
Economics
Although flooding damages continue to compound, a positive focus has been kept on the expected effects of rehabilitation. There is no question that extent of damages are severe. The World Bank estimated 1.4 trillion baht in losses due to damage of property and assets. Overall, Thailand slashed its 2011 growth forecast to 2.4% from 4.1%, an approximate reduction 2% of Thailand’s GDP. It’s predicted that economic activity will not return to pre-flood levels before April 2012, and business disruption will cause 700,000 people to be temporarily unemployed, while another 300,000 jobs will be lost entirely. The biggest questions that remain are what will revive the economy and how. Significant emphasis has been made on stimulating domestic demand with private consumption expected to rebound in the first quarter followed by private investment in the second quarter of next year. However, in addition to Thai citizens already spending their savings on restoring flood-damaged homes and businesses, the lack of consumer confidence remains a fundamental issue. Confidence in the overall economy dropped to 62.8 points, while confidence in job opportunities is down to 63.7 points both the lowest recorded amount in 10 years.
Other significant worries include the effects on the industrial, agriculture and tourism industries. All together around 10,000 factories compromising seven industrial estates with a total investment of 314 billion baht stopped production. This has affected a quarter of the world’s hard-disk drives producers as well as central hubs for Japanese carmakers and electronics firms. As a result, supply chain risk remains a foremost issue emerging from the disaster. Several initiatives have been taken to rectify the damages such as tax holiday extensions and other incentives for flooded factories as well as a memorandum of understand (MOU) signed by the Government Savings Bank (GSB) and the Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand to implement flood prevention plans. As for agriculture, 9.01 million rai (14,400 million sq m) of rice paddies across the country have been flooded over the past three months with 7.21 million rai (11,536 million sq m) in critical condition adding up to a total of 72 billion baht in damages. There is an estimated 22% loss of total annual rice production. Revitalization efforts include providing free rice seeds, three-year debt moratorium for farm cooperatives and improvements to infrastructure. The decline in tourism has been estimated at 10-30% for one to three months which would reduce GDP by 0.2-0.6%
Recovery and future planning is now the biggest focus of Thai politicians, policy makers and global onlookers. The World Bank has offered to loan 30 billion baht (US $1 billion), for investment in long-term flood prevention projects. A budget has also been secured of about $10 billion for post-flood restoration. The World Bank predicted that Thailand will need to invest $25.2 billion over the next two years. Predictions of growth have reached as high as 7% for next year as the government plans to spend heavily on reconstruction, specifically in infrastructure. Thailand will be counting on foreign investment, with a strong need for companies to maximize output, re-investing in the skill development of their labor force. To stimulate domestic spending, Thailand’s government is proceeding with the plan to raise the minimum wage although many businesses are deeply troubled over the potential negative effects. The central bank has also cut the interest rate for the first time in two years. The one-day bond repurchase rate was reduced by a quarter of a percentage point from 3.5% to 3.25 percent. The central bank claimed it may continue to ease the policy if the nation continues to struggle. The bank forecasts 4.8% growth in 2012. Thailand’s economic future remains unseen.
Security
Throughout the month, as flood waters continued to spread, many citizens continued to live in inundated homes or in emergency centers. People did not lose only their possessions but also resilience to maintain hope. As water spread quickly throughout Bangkok, residents fled the city while others refused to leave their homes in spite of the flood levels and evacuation orders. Some 800,000 people chose to stay in the seriously flooded areas. Various roads and forms of infrastructure were closed as Bangkok hoped to prevent as much damage as possible and alternative routes of transport and logistics were prepared. After investigations, The Natural Resources and Environment Ministry discovered a key reason why draining took so long – many structures have been built illegally on 26 waterways throughout Bangkok, causing estuaries to be redirected or blocked completely. In order to prevent further panic and food hording, temporary outlets were established for water drinking stations and major food suppliers re-directed their supply chain to receive foods from surrounding countries. As floodwaters begun to drain away, families headed home and widespread community cleaning activities took place to get rid of mud and debris-caked streets and buildings in order to return to normalcy.
Medical
Despite continuing concerns among health authorities and the public over waterborne diseases, there have been no major outbreaks related to the flood. Stagnant water has been treated with Effective Microorganism (EM), though experts are unsure of its efficacy over large areas. However, at present, the majority of flood-related deaths have been the results of accidents. Moreover, according to the Ministry of Health, the most common illness in flood-hit provinces is athlete’s foot. As for mosquito-borne illnesses, the director general of the Disease Control Department of the Ministry of Public Health has said the type of mosquitoes observed in flooded areas, while annoying, do not carry dengue fever. From a psychological perspective, the National Economic Development Board has cited a survey which suggests that as many as 120,000 flood victims may be suffering from depression.
Flood Incident Chronology
November – Early December 2011
Nov 1: The cabinet on Tuesday agrees in principle to post-flood rehabilitation measures proposed by the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) and to set up a new center to guide the reconstruction of the flooded industrial estates.
Nov 2: Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) orders the evacuation of Bang Phai, a sub-district of Bang Khen, as rapidly rising floodwaters threaten to overtake the area.
Nov 3: The Flood Relief Operations Center (FROC) is now working on piling up 2.5-tonne sandbags at the Chulalongkorn floodgate in Pathum Thani province, which will serve as a barrier to protect many areas Bangkok from the flood.
Nov 4: The City Hall issues an announcement for the evacuation of the whole of Bang Kae district in western Bangkok due to rising water levels.
In eastern Bangkok, water flowing in from the Khlong Sam Wa sluice gate raises water levels in flooded areas north of Ram Intra Road by 5-20cm. They include Nong Chok, Min Buri and Klong Sam Wa districts. Some areas are up to 1.50 meters of water.
In the middle zone of Bangkok, floodwater flowing from northern zones forces the closure of Phahon Yothin Road in front of the Major Ratchayothin cineplex. It is also spreads to Ratchadaphisek Road in front of the Criminal Court. Residents in Chatuchak district have been warned of flooding. Northern runoff from the vast Rangsit field and Khlong Rangsit 2 canal is still surging into Don Muang, Laksi, Bang Khen and Chatuchak districts.
Police have now closed 47 roads for traffic because of the flooding. The intersection to the Ratchavibha Interchange is now closed, in addition to the Ratchayothin intersection on Vibhavadi-Rangsit and Phahon Yothin roads.
Nov 6: The Emergency Operation Center for Flood, Storm and Landslide (EOC) reports that flooding has affected 3,151,224 people from 1,154,576 families. The Mass Communication Organization of Thailand (MCOT) reports that 4 million acres of farmland has been damaged and 75 highways have been closed.
Nov 7: The committee on economic rehabilitation approves a budget of 11 billion baht, and to pay 5,000 baht to each of the 2.28 million flood-affected households.
Also, an initial 112.8 million baht is allocated to the Industry Ministry to rehabilitate industrial parks.
The Ministry of Public Health reports that more than 1.3 million people had become sick in provinces affected by the floods, of which athlete’s foot accounted for almost 70% of cases.
Nov 8: To date, evacuation orders have affected 15 of Bangkok’s 50 districts. Residents in 12 districts have been advised to leave their homes. Despite this, many are not leaving. Approximately 800,000 people have chosen to stay in the seriously flooded areas. The BMA is trying to help them by delivering relief items.
Officials at the Hydrographic Department say that the water level in the Chao Phraya River in Bangkok has risen from 1.63 meters to about 2.07 meters above normal sea level.
Two giant brewers, Singha Corporate and Thai Beverage PLC, are selling drinking water at temporary outlets to meet high demand.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) estimates $825 million USD in losses to the tourism industry due to flooding.
Nov 10: Two industrial estates in Ayutthaya, Saharattananakorn Industrial Estate and Rojana Industrial Park, have been flooded. Hi-Tech Industrial Estate remains at risk. The head of the Federation of Thai Industries says 100,000 workers are at risk of losing their jobs.
The floodwaters in Bangkok have created an array of sanitation problems, such as contaminated tap water and floating trash. The Deputy Director General of the Pollution Control Department estimates there will be 3 million tons of garbage left behind after the waters recede.
Nov 14: In an act of defiance and frustration, around 200 local residents remove sandbag barriers, creating a 6-meter gap, at Vibhavadi Rangsit Road near Don Muaeng to help drain flood waters.
Nov 16-17: US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon visits Thailand to assess floods and meet with Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. The US pledges to help re-open Don Muang airport and to give 10 million dollars in aid for flood relief.
Ms Yingluck admits draining western districts in Bangkok is difficult because there are fewer drainage facilities than in the eastern side. Officials are expected to finish repairing the floodwall along the Chao Phraya River on the Western side of Bangkok in the next few days.
The Rama II road is dry, and the BMA has installed water pumps along the road to prevent floodwater from flowing onto the road’s surface.
The Highway Department has tried to salvage two highways, 340 and 9 (Eastern Ring Road) going North to Bang Pa-in in Ayutthaya. Floodwater on some parts of the Highway 340 is still high. The highest level the water has reached on the road is 80cm.
Meanwhile, hotels in heavy-hit Ayutthaya are re-opening in some areas, according to the head of the Thai Hotels Association (THA).
Nov 18: Approximately 2,000 flood-affected residents from Pathum Thani province destroy 70 meters of sand bag barriers at Sai Mai in northern Bangkok, leading to clashes with local residents seeking to limit the flow of water into their neighborhoods.
Nov 21: Ayuthaya’s Bang Pa-in industrial estate is dry and cleanup has commenced. Pumping is still underway at the Rojana Industrial estate.
Nov 27: Residents in Pathum Thani province destroy 10 meters of sand bag barriers, while residents along Chaeng Wattana road in Bangkok threaten to protest if their communities are not drained within three days.
Nov 29: Four of the seven flooded industrial estates in Ayuthayah and Pathum Thani are now dry. The drainage process at the remaining three industrial estates is underway. Thailand’s Minister of Industry is confident that all seven estates would be able to resume production by March or April of 2012.
Nov 30: UNESCO sends experts to survey damage at the ancient city of Ayuthaya, which had been submerged for a month. The World Heritage organization later offers a 2-million baht grant to help fund restoration.
Dec 2: Western Digital resumes partial production of hard drives in its facility at the Bang Pa-in industrial estate.
Death Toll
Nov 7 – 506 people/2 missing
Nov 16 – 564 people
Nov 21 – 602 people
Nov 25 – 615 people
Dec 3 – 666 people/ 3 missing
Dec 5— 675 people/3 missing
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