Bi-weekly Thailand Review 08/12 –24/12
School children in the Deep South being escorted by Soldiers (The Nation)
Summary
This bi-weekly Thailand Review covers, among others things, the following topics: Former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban were both charged with murder for their roles in the 2010 military crackdown. Furthermore, there is still no confirmed candidate for the upcoming Bangkok gubernatorial elections from either the Pheu Thai Party or the Democrat Party. The Bank of Thailand announced on 24 December that Thailand will adopt the updated Basel III requirement standards from 1 January and the Commerce Ministry wants to step up the fight against piracy and counterfeiting in 2013. In Thailand’s Deep South violent attacks on civilians and teachers did not stop in the last two weeks and there also has been a new kind of attack, a sniper killing. The Bangkok police was successful in preventing another ‘rival school brawl’. Read about these and other events in detail in HDFF’s Thailand Review.
Politics
Former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban were both charged with murder for their roles in the 2010 military crackdown. Abhisit was charged in the killing of Phan Khamkong, a taxi driver who got shot by soldiers, one of about 90 people killed during the violent crackdown. Mr. Abhisit accepted the charges but insisted that he was only performing his duties as Prime Minister in maintaining peace and order. He furthermore argued that the charges against him and Suthep were of political intention, trying to force the opposition to accept the government’s reconciliation law, which is intended, in the Democrat’s perspective, to whitewash former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. While Abhisit spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn called it “unprecedented” to charge a top policy maker like this, seasoned Thailand analyst Chris Baker stated, “My initial reaction was that this was a little bit of revenge, possibly pushed by the Red Shirts, who really smarted a lot about the way Abhisit had them branded as terrorists.” He added that background negotiations involving Thaksin might be part of the whole scenario. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist from Chulalongkorn University, agreed with Panitan on this being an unprecedented moment in Thai history as government leaders would usually not be charged for a crackdown on protesters adding, “So the sense of impunity, invincibility, is being challenged here and it sets a precedent.” Pheu Thai spokesman Prompong Nopparit denied that this issue would be in any way linked to the reconciliation law. (New York Times) (Voice of America) (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
There is still no confirmed candidate for the upcoming Bangkok gubernatorial elections from either the Pheu Thai Party or the Democrat Party. While incumbent governor Sukhumband Paribatra confirmed he would run for re-election the Democrat Party has yet to announce their support for him. The Pheu Thai Party on the other hand is split on their support as most Bangkok MP’s favor Khunying Sudarat, while the executive members seem to prefer deputy national police chief Pongsapat Pongcharoen. With the election date, 17 February, drawing closer and closer both parties will need to make a move at some point in the not so distant future. (Bangkok Post)
On 14 December the deadline for the verification process of foreign workers in Thailand ran out. The Labour Ministers from Thailand and Myanmar met to discuss a labor employment agreement between the nations as Myanmar wanted Thailand to extend the existing scheme beyond the 14th claiming that PM Yingluck Shinawatra had already promised this in a meeting with Myanmar President Thein Sein. The Thai permanent secretary for labour Mr. Somkiat Chayasriwong said that this was a misunderstanding and that foreign workers who did not complete the process before 14 December will only be allowed to continue their work for three more months. Thailand has opened a legal channel for migrant workers through a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with its neighbouring countries. The MoU allows the import of legal migrant workers who will also access the same social benefits as Thai workers. More than 300,000 migrant workers, of which 150,000 Cambodians, 99,000 Lao and 60,000 from Myanmar will face deportation as the 14 December deadline passed. (Bangkok Post) (Al Jazeera)
Economy
As 2012 moves into its very last week, economic analyses for 2013 as well as reports on performance in 2012 form a large part of the economic news for the last fortnight. Although the Thai economy has been largely praised for its resilience and growth in the aftermath of the 2011 floods, some state measures and subsidies (such as the rice-pledging scheme and the first-car programme) have worried analysts about the outlook for 2013. Rice exports are expected to show a decrease of 35 % compared to last year as the last statistics are gathered on the subject. The fullyear total is estimated to be 6.9 million tonnes, a substantial decrease from 10.66 million tonnes in 2011, a change that is largely attributed to the loss of competitiveness of Thai rice compared to exports from Vietnam and India. The first-car programme however has experienced unexpected success with an estimated 1.2 million units sold instead of the target set at 500,000 units. The last week of the year is also expected to see a rise of spending, especially in Bangkok where a survey shows that over 60% of Bangkokians plan to buy gifts for friends and family for the New Year. The Excise Department furthermore stated that a merrier celebratory mood can be seen in the Thai economy as the total excise tax collected on alcoholic beverages rose by 38 % year-on-year in October and November. (Bangkok Post, The Nation)
The Bank of Thailand announced on 24 December that Thailand will adopt the updated Basel III requirement standards from 1 January. Although unlikely to have any greater direct effect on Thailand’s banks the standards strengthen the global banking system as it forces banks to build larger capital buffers and sets standards for the quality of capital: limiting the content of Tier 1 capital to a predominance of common shares and retained earnings. (Bangkok Post)
In Myanmar, the Dawei Deep Sea Port project has been moving forward during the last two weeks, as the Thai and Myanmar governments agreed to raise funds for the project in a meeting on 17 December. The port, expected to become a trading hub for South East Asian and South China, is estimated to require total investments of Bt270 billion, of which Thailand is expected to invest Bt75 billion. Thailand’s investment includes infrastructure measures, mainly involving motorway construction between Bang Yai and Kanchanaburi and between Kanchanaburi and Banphu Namron. (Bangkok Post, The Nation, daweidevelopment.com)
Last but not least, the Commerce Ministry is taking a New Year’s resolution to step up the fight against piracy and counterfeiting in 2013. MBK Center, Chatuchak market, Siam Square, Sukhumvit Rd, and Patpong Nightmarket in Bangkok are areas that will receive special attention, now labeled as “red zones” by the US Trade Representative (USTR). Although previous government crackdowns on piracy have not slowed the illegal industry, the Thai Government now pledges to take every action possible in order to be removed from the USTR Priority Watch List of most serious intellectual property violators. (Bangkok Post)
Security
On 7th December a village defense volunteers’ outpost in Pattani’s Kapho district was raided by about 40 armed men, wearing army-style uniforms. The group stole four AK-47s, one M16, five bullet-proof vests, a communication radio, and a number of mobile phones belonging to the volunteers, who they, fortunately, did not harm. Sources say that insurgents are preparing a launch of attacks against officers and thus, weapon heists could intensify during this period. Furthermore, four people, including a toddler, were killed, and four others seriously injured, including another infant, on 11th December, when gunmen fired several rounds into a teashop in Narathiwat’s Rangae district. The attackers are believed to be members of a separatist group of the leader Amran Ming, which has been responsible for a lot of violence in Rangae district before. On the same day at least five men, two of them wearing police uniforms, attacked a school in Pattani’s Mayo district. They fired shots at seven teachers who were having lunch in the school’s canteen and they killed the school director and another teacher. This happened exactly on the day when over 370 schools in Narathiwat re-opened after teacher went to strike to demand more security. This attack raised the number of teachers killed in the Deep South since 2004 to 157. In a bomb attack on an armored vehicle six army and volunteer rangers were wounded on 14th December. After the 50kg gas cylinder bomb exploded the rear wheels of the vehicle got stuck in the crater of the blast, forcing the rangers to exit it. Outside they then engaged in a 15 minute lasting gun battle with the militants hiding in bushes on the roadside. When the rangers called for back-up the assailants fled the scene. Attacks on teachers and civil servants in the Deep South went on at 17th December, when gunmen shot dead two officials from the Agricultural Extension Office and wounded five, including a teacher, in Narathiwat’s Cho Airong district. Moreover, the incident of seven armed men who stormed an Administration Organization office on Thursday, 20th December, in Narathiwat’s tambon Bacho, looking for Buddhist Thais working there, and setting fire to the office after not finding any, increased the fear that militants will be targeting more officials in the future. Another new form of attack was seen, also on 20th December, in Yala’s Krong Pinang district, when a policeman was killed in a sniper attack, which was blamed on the group lead by insurgent leader Ismaae Rayalong. The most recent incident of violence in the southernmost provinces happened yesterday morning, on the 23rd December, when a female defense volunteer was severely injured in a drive-by shooting in Narathiwat’s Chanae district. (Bangkok Post, The Nation) Read more about violence in the Deep South in HDFF’s incident statistics: https://hdff.org/2012/12/24/south-thailand-incident-statistics/
On other national security issues there was the news that police arrested 53 vocational students on 20th December, in Bangkok’s Suan Luang district. The students were carrying two handmade weapons, two homemade ping-pong bombs, and 35 knives, and were on their way to attack rival students in the Prawet area. The police was informed about this by an intelligence report, so they set up checkpoints on the bus routes between the two schools and were successful in finding the students and their weapons. (Bangkok Post)
The Preah Vihear temple area, cause for fighting between Thai and Cambodian military in recent years, will be de-mined. This is what the Thai-Cambodian Joint Working Group (JWG) has agreed to. The plan is to clear all landmines by the end of April 2013 to ensure the safety of people who want to visit the temple area. (Bangkok Post)
On 21st December a shopping mall in Bangkok’s Bang Khae district was severely damaged by fire. It broke out around 10pm on the sixth floor, spread to the fifth and fourth floor, and it took over two hours to control the fire. Fortunately nobody was injured. (The Nation)
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