On 27 July, representatives from HDFF were invited to join “Taiwan Strait Tensions: What to expect, what to fear”, an online panel discussion held by The Center for Peace & Security of the German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG). This panel featured Dr. Strobe Driver of Federation University (Australia), Grant Newsham of Japan Forum for Strategic Studies, Henning Glaser, and Duc Quang Ly of CPG, who gave an informative analysis of the tensions and prospects of Cross-Strait relations.
Following the brief but informative introduction of the strained relations across the Taiwan Straits in the current global crisis from Henning Glaser, the Director of CPG, Dr. Strobe Driver and Grant Newsham presented their views on the prediction of the possible strategy that Mainland China and United States would take to deal with the Cross-Strait conflicts, the factors which might aggravate the dangerous situation, the preparedness that Taiwan had already took to address the conflicts, the probable reaction from other regions including Japan, Australia, and EU, as well as the implication for regional stability if there were a war. During the discussion, both panelists stressed the uncertainty of the future of Cross-Strait relations as the mixed statement of the independency of Taiwan and the respect for the principles of national sovereignty and non-interference in current global affairs. Considering the Russo-Ukrainian War, Grant Newsham believed that Mainland China will gain insight into the effects of the ongoing war, which may make it easier for China to assert the right to attack Taiwan. In contrast, Dr. Stobe Driver assumed a non-conventional war such as the potential blockade would happen instead of a physical war. In terms of the implication of global relations, the profound analysis demonstrated the far-reaching influence of the Taiwan Straits conflict on global affairs will implicate the United States’ influence on the political posture of Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand.
During the Q&A session, audiences from the Philippines, Taiwan, etc., put forward different questions from a variety of perspectives on Taiwan diplomacy, the next coming election, international law, and the dynamics of the relationship among China, the United States, and the EU. In responding to these insightful questions, Dr. Strobe Driver and Grant Newsham revealed the situation of Taiwan’s internal and external politics and economics based on their long-term research and observation of Taiwan.
HDFF thanks CPG for the hospitality to attend this online discussion and is looking forward to joining other events hosted by the CPG.
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