Summary
Overall, Thailand remains stable, peaceful and is displaying signs of growth. The dangers surrounding upcoming election and political separation remains open ended although insofar the situation remains secure in comparison to last year’s turmoil. The biggest risk remains to be instability occurring as a result of perceived injustices. The economy is predicted to increase despite international predicated decline and the Preah Vihear temple area continues to be contended. Thailand has spoken in opposition to potential unfavorable ICJ rulings regarding the border controversy. Insurgency in the South remains unresolved and unsafe in high conflict areas.
Economy
In the “Global Economic Prospect”, launched on June 8th by the World Bank, reports that developing economies are likely to see growth decline to 6.3 per cent during 2011 to 2013 from 7.3 per cent in 2010. But investment and consumption in Thailand, due to greater political stability than in the past, is likely to improve the Thai economic growth forecast.
Politics
Election campaigns continued this week without major interruptions. Current Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s campaign trail led him to Bangkok’s Don Muang district, which is dominated by Pheu Thai. However, there were no red-shirt supporters present, after the Pheu Thai Party urged them to stop harassing Mr. Abhisit. Meanwhile, anti-red-shirt forces, Kaewsun Atibhodhi (former member of the Assets Scrutiny Committee) and the Network of Citizen Volunteers Protecting the Land, are trying to get the Office of the Attorney-General to take up a case against current poll leader Yingluck Shinawatra. Shinawatra stands as the Pheu Thai Party lead candidate and youngest sister of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and is being suspected of perjury in the assets seizure case against her brother Thaksin.
One month ahead of the elections personal animosities are therefore already overshadowing policy related discussions, which, as Sawai Boonma notes (Bangkok Post, 8 June), currently consist of nothing more than populist handouts or “are apparently designed to make money for politicians and their cronies, rather than for the development of the country.”
The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia regarding the Preah Vihear temple and its surrounding area continues with both the Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon and government spokesmen Panitan Wattanayagorn claiming the International Court of Justice (ICJ) would have no authority to force Thailand to withdraw its troops. Army chief Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha commented that “if the ICJ orders us to withdraw, I still could not do so, because the area also belongs to Thailand.” He added that the use of force would be a last resort though.
Security
Security remains generally stable despite high alert surrounding the upcoming elections. Sources state that 100,000 officers from Thailand’s National Police Bureau will be positioned nationwide at polling stations to ensure that the election will be peaceful. Despite small acts of violence continuing to occur, including the defacing campaign posters, Thailand’s Police General and the Centre for Administration of Peace and Order (CAPO) has withdrawn The Internal Security Act (ISA) instated in February. Overall calmness has contributed to standard control measures being returned.
Insurgency in the South remains prevalent as security forces killed three suspected Islamic militants in the Bacho district of Narathiwat on June 2nd . Authorities reported that two assault rifles were detained after a short gunfight in mountains. Two Buddhist grocery store owners were also shot dead and a bomb injured five police officials in Narathiwat. Despite more than 60,000 security forces dispatched, sources state attacks have increased in recent months.
Migrant workers and refugees have proved to be a point of contention this week. The UN Human Rights Council in Geneva met on June 6th reviewing various topics including migrant workers in Thailand. Forms of abuse were discussed including physical assault, torture and ill-treatment by government security forces, in addition to commonly enduring sexual abuse, labor rights abuses and extortion. This was supported by the release of 96 Ahmadi Muslim Pakistani refugees from the Suan Phlu Immigration Detention Centre. The National Human Rights Commission and Thai Committee for Refugees (TCR) organized the release after being detained for six months. Due to the lack of a Thai national refugee law, foreigners can be lawfully arrested, prosecuted and deported, despite having status as UN asylum-seekers or refugees.
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Summary
Overall, Thailand remains stable, peaceful and is displaying signs of growth. The dangers surrounding upcoming election and political separation remains open ended although insofar the situation remains secure in comparison to last year’s turmoil. The biggest risk remains to be instability occurring as a result of perceived injustices. The economy is predicted to increase despite international predicated decline and the Preah Vihear temple area continues to be contended. Thailand has spoken in opposition to potential unfavorable ICJ rulings regarding the border controversy. Insurgency in the South remains unresolved and unsafe in high conflict areas.
Economy
In the “Global Economic Prospect”, launched on June 8th by the World Bank, reports that developing economies are likely to see growth decline to 6.3 per cent during 2011 to 2013 from 7.3 per cent in 2010. But investment and consumption in Thailand, due to greater political stability than in the past, is likely to improve the Thai economic growth forecast.
In the first quarter of 2011, the Thai economy expanded by 3 percent and it is expected to grow between 3.5 and 4.5 percent this year. The global economic recovery and strong domestic demand plays an important role in this upward trend. Furthermore, the growth in economy has derived from higher exports, expansion in the tourism sector, increased private investment, higher farm income, and low unemployment rate. Exports are projected to grow by 17 percent. Inflation is likely to stand at 3 to 3.8 percent, and current account surplus is expected to be equivalent to 3.1 percent of GDP. Domestic consumption has significantly contributed to growth in the recent past and exports are holding up well against the uncertain global outlook. Concerns about high prices of food and fuel are likely to persist in 2011, but the Thai economy is expected to weather these rough currents and post a solid performance during the year.
Politics
Election campaigns continued this week without major interruptions. Current Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva’s campaign trail led him to Bangkok’s Don Muang district, which is dominated by Pheu Thai. However, there were no red-shirt supporters present, after the Pheu Thai Party urged them to stop harassing Mr. Abhisit. Meanwhile, anti-red-shirt forces, Kaewsun Atibhodhi (former member of the Assets Scrutiny Committee) and the Network of Citizen Volunteers Protecting the Land, are trying to get the Office of the Attorney-General to take up a case against current poll leader Yingluck Shinawatra. Shinawatra stands as the Pheu Thai Party lead candidate and youngest sister of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and is being suspected of perjury in the assets seizure case against her brother Thaksin.
One month ahead of the elections personal animosities are therefore already overshadowing policy related discussions, which, as Sawai Boonma notes (Bangkok Post, 8 June), currently consist of nothing more than populist handouts or “are apparently designed to make money for politicians and their cronies, rather than for the development of the country.”
The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia regarding the Preah Vihear temple and its surrounding area continues with both the Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon and government spokesmen Panitan Wattanayagorn claiming the International Court of Justice (ICJ) would have no authority to force Thailand to withdraw its troops. Army chief Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha commented that “if the ICJ orders us to withdraw, I still could not do so, because the area also belongs to Thailand.” He added that the use of force would be a last resort though.
Security
Security remains generally stable despite high alert surrounding the upcoming elections. Sources state that 100,000 officers from Thailand’s National Police Bureau will be positioned nationwide at polling stations to ensure that the election will be peaceful. Despite small acts of violence continuing to occur, including the defacing campaign posters, Thailand’s Police General and the Centre for Administration of Peace and Order (CAPO) has withdrawn The Internal Security Act (ISA) instated in February. Overall calmness has contributed to standard control measures being returned.
Insurgency in the South remains prevalent as security forces killed three suspected Islamic militants in the Bacho district of Narathiwat on June 2nd . Authorities reported that two assault rifles were detained after a short gunfight in mountains. Two Buddhist grocery store owners were also shot dead and a bomb injured five police officials in Narathiwat. Despite more than 60,000 security forces dispatched, sources state attacks have increased in recent months.
Migrant workers and refugees have proved to be a point of contention this week. The UN Human Rights Council in Geneva met on June 6th reviewing various topics including migrant workers in Thailand. Forms of abuse were discussed including physical assault, torture and ill-treatment by government security forces, in addition to commonly enduring sexual abuse, labor rights abuses and extortion. This was supported by the release of 96 Ahmadi Muslim Pakistani refugees from the Suan Phlu Immigration Detention Centre. The National Human Rights Commission and Thai Committee for Refugees (TCR) organized the release after being detained for six months. Due to the lack of a Thai national refugee law, foreigners can be lawfully arrested, prosecuted and deported, despite having status as UN asylum-seekers or refugees.
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