HDFF Weekly Newsletter
13/6 – 19/6
General
Thailand has had several noteworthy events this week. With the upcoming election in two weeks, controversy surrounding candidates had led to significant contention, mostly between the Pheu Thai Party and the military. Although no serious violence has occurred, preparation measures are being implemented. The elections have affected the baht which is currently losing value from the political and economic uncertainty but Prime Minister claims the economy is rapidly improving. The Thai-Cambodia conflict has not made any progress and deterring events are hindering positive progress thus far.
Politics
Latest polls show Pheu Thai increasing its lead. This, the Bangkok Post reports, puts the militaries’ promise not to interfere with the election to a test. The military staged a coup in 2006 to overthrow Thaksin Shinawatra government and with his youngest sister now being the lead candidate for Pheu Thai, in addition to amnesty claims for Thaksin making the rounds, speculation is concerning. Clashes have also occurred between Army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha and Pheu Thai candidate over alleged intimidation of military members of the governments’ anti-narcotics task force. Yingluck has promised that in case of a Pheu Thai lead government no revenge would be taken against the army and General Chan-ocha. Meanwhile, in a TV interview the General urged the public to vote for “good people” and reminding them that there are anti-monarchist undertones in certain campaigns. These comments do not align with previously mentioned promises to remain neutral.
Bangkok Post Poll reported that Pheu Thai would win 18 out of 33 Bangkok constituencies and the Securities and Exchange Commission has cleared PTP’s No.1 list candidate Yingluck Shinawatra of accusations that she broke securities law. However, sources state that polls have measured that 44% are still undecided on which party they are going to vote for. The Desuit poll also reported that 31% want clearer policies on well being could be improved, 28% wanted to know more about community development and 25% was interested in educational and security policies.
Meanwhile the “war of words” between Democrats and Pheu Thai is heating up and leaves room for apprehension. Chief democrat party strategist Korbsak Sabhavasu reminded the public about last year’s violence and the red-shirts responsibility– some of whom are now Pheu Thai candidates. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has also recently used the 91 deaths and protests “in his favor” when he commented on Facebook stating red-shirt leaders: “opted for more deaths so they can press the charge of killing people against me.” (Bangkok Post, Tuesday 14 June 2011).
Economy
The baht dropped 0.6 percent this month and sources state the baht is at a three-month low as global investors reduce their Thai assets in anticipation of unrest from the election. The baht lost 0.1 percent to 30.49 per dollar on June 15th. However, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva announced at the World Economic Forum on June 13th that the Thailand’s economy has recovered fully in comparison to the damage incurred from the crises in the last two years. The national economy has been supported by developing the private sector. The prime minister announced a decrease in unemployment to 0.7% and the development of several industries including tourism, automobile, hard disk drives and petrochemical manufacturing. The government also plans to invest US$25 billion in transportation over the next five to six years to construct a new railway and convenient access to other ASEAN countries.
Thailand’s policy interest rate is returning to normal levels and the pace of increases should slow in the second half of the year according to Kosit Panpiemras, the executive chairman of Bangkok Bank. With the elections quickly approaching, the business sector has repeated its call for the new government, no matter which parties form it, to speed up tackling corruption and reducing economic disparities. Dusit Nontanakorn, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC) and the Board of Trade, on June 15th, said companies are willing to cooperate with the new government in driving economic growth no matter who wins the general election.
However, anti-corruption and economic disparity reduction measures should be the top priority.
Security
Security is stable and consistent. Other than some vandalism and campaigning disagreements, the upcoming elections have not created significant cause for concern. In a preventative measure, eight Bangkok districts (Lak Si, Don Muang, Sai Mai, Khlong Sam Wa, Nong Chok, Bang Khunthien, Bang Bon and Thawee Watthana) have been placed on a police watch list. Two additional lists have been created to highlight certain areas in provinces as “hot spots” and higher-alert “red zones” where risk for violence is higher. 1,246, election signboards have been reported as disfigured and 256 candidates from 11 parties have requested police protection. At least 11 attacks on politicians and canvassers have been reported since May 10th.
Peace efforts on the Thai-Cambodia continue. However three men: a Thai, a Vietnamese and a Cambodian were arrested on the border for espionage, “threatening Thailand’s national security” and for methamphetamine drug charges on June 10th. The men were allegedly spying for the local communities, on the border province of Si Sa Ket, to monitor Thailand’s military bases and to identify base locations and shelters for villagers. Thailand has accused the Cambodian government as being involved but Cambodia has denied the charges. A recent survey has also shown that the border dispute is interrupting mine-clearance activities. However, in an effort to show good practice, Cambodia is participating in Thailand’s “Ayara Guardian 2011”, a multi-national peace-keeping exercise organized by the Royal Thai Armed Forces on June 13-July 1. 13 other countries countries (Australia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Japan, Malaysia, Mongolia, Nepal, the Philippines, Rwanda, Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, and the United States) will be participating as well.
It has been proposed by army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha that Thailand establishes a security affairs ministry, in order to better manage new, more sophisticated threats in the future. The security ministry, managed by the government, would work to unify security agencies.
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