*Please note that HDFF has chosen to reduce the focus on flood related news in the Weekly Review in order to reduce repetitiveness. For flood updates, please consult HDFF’s specially published Flood Analysis and Incident Log, updated once a month.
Summary
Flooding continues to shred apart the country while government mismanagement and lack of unity in addition to the spread misinformation remains a key problem in political dealings. Solutions to the floods are starting to take place as committees are formed and a three stage rehabilitation program has been proposed to reconstruct and rebuild the nation. The future of the Thai economy remains unknown. Although Thailand is presently estimated to lose billions, hope remains due to plans to inject rehabilitation funds and competitiveness in the commercial sector. The future of Europe’s and the United States’ economic conditions remains a weight on growth as Thai’s monitor how further international crises will affect the Kingdom. ASEAN’s role and how Thailand is making efforts to collaborate is reviewed on numerous fronts including labor migration and energy. The death of the 13 Chinese sailors in the Mekong River remains a critical issue for Thai security as numerous questions come to light and stifling freedom of speech is appearing to be getting worse instead of improving.
Politics
Flooding continues in 24 provinces nationwide, affecting over 1 million people, while in Bangkok, around 800 000 people are living under 80cm of water according to Bangkok Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra. The death toll has risen to 533.
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, was not only faced with floodwaters reaching her house in Bangkok’s Buengkhum district, but also with rumors that she would step down or be replaced. Different news outlets reported that the so-called “House No 111” (111 former Thai Rak Thai executives) want her to be replaced by either Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yubamrung or Justice Minister Pracha Promnok, a rumor PM Yingluck instantly denied. Additionally, Ms Yingluck denied news reports she would step down voluntarily declaring, “People supported and voted for me so I want to continue my work to the best of my ability.” Meanwhile, sources claim some Pheu Thai MPs wanted Bangkok Governor Sukhumbhand to be “fired” as well. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva has announced his belief that it would be too early to discuss rebuilding measures as the flood crisis is not yet over and the government would be better advised to focus on managing the flood situation .The government has appointed former deputy prime minister and economist Virabongsa Ramangura, a close aide of His Majesty the King, to lead a committee responsible for formulating a master plan to rehabilitate the country. PM Yingluck outlined a three stage plan at a press conference to reconstruct the country. Presently, distributing relief items and providing medical treatments at evacuation centers were of utmost importance (stage 1). Measures to be taken in the near future include compensation for damages as well as loans and other privileges for the business sector and individuals (stage 2). Final solutions include effectively working towards mitigating changing climate and setting up a water management system to avoid future flood crisis (stage 3). (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
The House of Representatives has passed the first reading of the proposed 2012 fiscal Budget Bill with a vote of 237 to 2, with 177 abstentions.
Economics
Asian market growth predications are mixed with varying biases as Europe remains volatile, the US stock market shows growth and the debt crisis continues. The Thai stock market has finished lower than in the last three sessions falling more than 10 points or an overall 1%, settled just above the 955-point plateau. The world is watching, including Thailand, as Greece makes its next steps to potentially partake in a debt default. A default will alter Europe’s economic status once again including influencing its global dependants. Thai economic advisors are warning that without an early resolution to the Greek’s call for an EU bailout plan, another global recession could be induced. Central bank governor Dr. Prasarn Trairatvorakul has claimed “Only time will tell how these technical steps will play out as well as what the eventual fate of the European Union will be”, although experts are claiming that neighboring European States will affected either way. In addition to the enormous pressure on Thailand from the flooding and delivering on election promises, a further economic slow down could be disastrous. On a positive note, a downturn would reduce oil prices and inflation which may benefit Thailand. (Bangkok Post) (RTT News)
Loan growth is being analyzed in light in current economic conditions. Leading Thai banks expect loan growth to slow down during this quarter and into next year as industrial provinces are working to undue the damages from flooding. However, despite major lenders claims, CIMB Thai Bank is still expecting loan growth to exceed its target of 20% this year and aimed for more than 20% next year. Representatives of CIMB have announced that they trust the economy will grow healthily in 2012 if the government is able to introduce enough funds into the spending cycle, renewing the flow of the economy. (The News) (TMCnet)
Analysts are claiming that there is a distinct possibility there will be a 1% point added to GDP from rehabilitation spending alone next year, making growth percentages between 4.5 and 5%. It is estimated that year-on-year growth in non-performing loans should remain stable at 3% in 2012. Businesses that provide infrastructure and facility support, particularly water and flood management, are expected to flourish in the coming months. There is anticipation that investment in highways, railways, mass transit and water management will stimulate the economy and consumption. If investments are successful, it has been predicted that the economy may bounce back in 1 to 2 years with a renewed sense of competitiveness. There are also plans to change the way industry in conducted in Thailand, introducing eco-industrial estates to consume less energy and produce fewer emissions. Toshiba and Japanese supporters have already begun to implement these changes. Another alteration might be utilizing pipelines instead of rail lines for transportation in order to reduce costs and risks and preparing regional oil reserves so as not to disturb the international supply chain. Experts have also noted the need for education, training and management planning in state agencies to ensure similar crises are dealt with differently in the future. (Bangkok Post)
Due the crisis at home, PM Yingluck has announced that she will not attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Forum (APEC) being held in Hawaii, delaying her international debut. Despite plans to inform the global community about the crisis and to boost investor confidence in the country, the death toll has reached 533 and the floodwaters are creeping further into Bangkok, leaving Yingluck hard-pressed to stay in the country. At the event, Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaiku announced “The Thai people have always shown resilience in the face of past adversity; this widespread flood is no exception” assuring attendees that the Thai economy, given its fundamental strength, will soon regain its standing. Surapong reportedly spent time encouraging bilateral relationships with the Philippine representative, discussing next year’s 5th Joint Commission on Bilateral Cooperation, and with the Chile representative, discussing the finalization of next year’s proposed free trade agreement negotiations.
In related regional economic news, concern has been voiced in regards to Thailand’s slow pace of preparation for the ASEAN Economic Community. Surin Pitsuwan, secretary-general of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has claimed “If we’re not prepared, we’re not qualified, we’re not able to compete while others are moving into the Thai economy and landscape. I’m worried that they will take advantage of our country.” Several mutual recognition agreements (MRAs) have been finalized in regards to seven occupations – medical practitioners, dental practitioners, nursing services, engineering services, architectural services, surveying qualifications, and accountancy services, which will be recognized in all member countries, enabling them to work more freely. Emphasis has been made that improving education standards and preparation are critical to prepare Thai professionals for these opportunities or else face being left behind in comparison to emerging China and India. (Asia One News) (The Nation)
Security
The death of the 13 Chinese sailors in the Mekong River has grown into a significant security issue for all of the surrounding ASEAN nations. Officials from China, Myanmar, Thailand and Laos have vowed to boost law enforcement on the river. The agreement stipulates that the four countries will share intelligence, patrols and law enforcement. Cooperation is being encouraged should any more emergency incidents arise, endangering the public. Dealing with transnational crime was also a key element of the meetings. The public release claimed each nation will “carry out coordinated special campaigns to eradicate criminal organizations which have long threatened the region’s security”. As of next month, the Yunan border corps announced that patrol forces would escort both Chinese ships and those from other countries throughout the Mekong. Critics are not convinced that the discussions will result in real implementations due to varying legal and political systems or that increasing intelligence exchanges will have real impact on trafficking. Debate continues over what will happen to the nine PMTF soldiers, including a major, a lieutenant and seven other ranks, that turned themselves in on October 28th for killing the Chinese sailors. The soldiers face charges of murder and concealing evidence. Despite Chinese announcements that the case has been “cracked”, analysts speculate that it is highly unlikely that the unit randomly apprehended two innocent Chinese vessels, brought drugs on the ship, silenced the crew and then staged an attack. Sources also claim that it is unlikely the Thai or Chinese police investigators will release their true findings. The international community is waiting to see how rigid Beijing will be in seeking justice against the Royal Thai Army. Some predictors believe the Chinese will act harshly to appear dedicated to protecting nationals however, others believe making a large public trial will only call attention to the Chinese official drug-related corruption, long term cross-border instability and facilitating sales of weapons, fuel and other strategic goods. Analysts state that the government will have to decide between commercial and foreign policy interests. (Asia Times) (Xinahua) (Reuters) (Bangkok Post)
Energy remains a key topic in the future of Thai security. As mentioned in the economic section, greater collaboration within ASEAN is being encouraged on all fronts. Policy makers are stressing the importance of energy as consumption is expected to double by 2030 and ASEAN countries remain some of the fastest growing economies in the world. Cross-border trading of energy is being encouraged more than ever to create a wider regional power grid. Thus far, Thailand has developed agreements with Laos for hydropower and Malaysia and Singapore are trading natural gas. Concerns include pricing alignments and environmental sustainability. Suggested environmental solutions include focusing on alternative energy or evaluating subsidies in order to optimize consumption. Giant King Grass, a growing clean energy company (with similar characteristics to sugar cane), recently announced signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Seema Energy Co., Ltd, a renewable energy development company based in Thailand. The MOU outlines a comprehensive plan for Giant King Grass to fuel Seema’s proposed 90 MW biomass power plant. The government of Thailand has set a target of 3,700MW of biomass capacity by 2022. Only 1,700MW have been awarded so far with only a portion of this power in operation. Seema Energy’s project is estimated to provide more than 2,000 jobs for farmers and local communities in the northeast of Thailand for managing the Giant King Grass plantations. (Channel News Asia) (Market Watch)
Freedom of speech also continues as a rampant issue. Yingluck’s cabinet has proposed to make an amendment to the Printing Act of 2007. If passed by parliament into law, the amendment will give the national police chief power to shut down any print news media organization with exemption from punishment. More specifically, the police chief will have the ability to prohibit “the publishing, distributing, importing or ordering the import of printed materials deemed offensive to the monarchy or as undermining national security, public order or good morals”. The proposal has created controversy as the current police chief, Police General Priewpan, is the former brother-in-law of Thaksin Shinawatra. One of Thaksin’s notorious offenses was appointing a media monitor and control agency for the Nation Multimedia Group. The legislation is expected to pass when the Pheu Thai Party holds the majority in parliament. Critics believe the amendment can be seen as another step to control power and influence public opinion in order to prepare for return of Thaksin to Thailand and maybe even to power. However, it should be noted that efforts to legalize censorship has not only been implemented by the PTP but in the previous administration as well. The Democrat-led government used emergency powers to ban publications, websites and radio stations connected with the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship. This valuable audio clip describes the effect of the 2007 Computer Crime Act in an interview with Thai editor Chiranuch Premchaiporn who was charged with breaking an Internet crime law as a result of a comment posted to her news site. (Bangkok Post) (Free Speech Radio News).
Death in the South of Thailand continues to stack up. In Yala, Six border patrol police were wounded by a bomb explosion while partaking in teacher escort duty. In Narathiwat, 6 people were killed and two badly injured following a bomb explosion. In a later attack, 2 soldiers were injured from roadside bombs. Rebels are reportedly stockpiling bombs as warned by a security agency in the South. Police were able to arrest a 25-year-old man for his alleged involvement in a thwarted bomb attack when a bomb was found and successfully defused. Four men are also in placed in custody for potential involvement in illegal drugs and the insurgent movement when 39 methamphetamine tablets, a loaded .38 handgun and about 27,000 baht in cash were found in their truck. Police later discovered 21 bottles of cough syrup in the men’s possession which is often used as a base for a drug cocktail. A report by The Prince of Songkla University’s Deep South Watch centre stated that 46 people were killed, 110 people were injured and 121 violent incidents occurred in the region (52 bombings, 44 shootings and 25 attacks involving other means of violence) in October 2011. Those killed and injured included policemen, soldiers, school employees, villagers, farmers and other civilians. Since January 2004, 4,800 people have been killed and around 9,000 hurt in the Deep South. (Bangkok Post)
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