Summary
Flooding is devastating various sections of Thailand, largely impacting the physical and mental health of thousands. The government is attempting to reduce suffering and rebuild infrastructure. Yingluck has begun to meet with various international leaders to encourage diplomatic ties, increase economic cooperation and support peacekeeping. Successful meetings have been held in Brunei and Indonesia so far. Thailand and the international community continue to remain skeptical of Thaksin’s future role in Thai politics and how and when he will return. The Thai baht and economy are still negatively affected by the international decline and consumer confidence continues to drop from a variety of internal and external sources. Support for the future of the proposed economic policies is still wavering. The immediate future of the Thai – Cambodian relationship will be largely affected by upcoming Yingluck and Cambodian PM Hun Sen meeting and various other border relationships are being discussed. National security is threatened by cyber crimes and piracy.
Politics
Heavy flooding has spread to 35 provinces of Thailand, claiming more than 80 lives and affecting more than half a million people. As of Thursday, September 15, The National Disaster Warning Centre has also warned people in Bangkok and Samut Prakan to prepare for floods because of overflow from the Chao Phraya River. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra visited affected villages, as did Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva. Ms Yingluck asked Defense Minister Yutthasak Sasiprapa and army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha for the military’s cooperation in helping disaster victims. As consequence of the intense flooding Deputy Public Health Minister Torpong Chaiyasarn stated that more than 2% of the current disaster victims were suicidal. In Uttaradit Province, mudslides killed five people and two people are still missing. Significant amount of infrastructure and homes were destroyed. The Prime Minister has stated The Social Development and Human Security Ministry and the Princess Pa Foundation will rebuild homes and The Mineral Resources Department will create new, updated hazard maps of the affected areas. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation) (UPI) Pattaya in the East, Krabi and neighboring provinces in the South also experienced tremendous flooding and evacuations.
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra started her ASEAN Tour to meet other leaders of the region on September 10 by visiting Brunei. Ms. Yingluck met His Majesty the Sultan and Yang Di-Pertuan, who hosted a state banquet to welcome the Prime Minister. Back home Yingluck announced that Brunei would be interested in importing more Thai jasmine rice and cooperation in technology, education, medical services and agriculture. (Brudirect) Yingluck’s tour continued on September 12th visiting Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. According to their joint press conference, the two heads of state discussed Thailand’s southern provinces as well as future economic cooperation in the areas of industry, energy and tourism. A specific focus was also food security to boost bilateral trade, which Hatta Rajasa, the Indonesian coordinating minister for the economy, expects to grow by at least 47% for next year. As the current chair of ASEAN, Indonesia is still planning to dispatch observers to the Thai/Cambodian border to monitor troop withdrawals in the area around Preah Vihear Temple and remains confident of a peaceful solution. (The Jakarta Globe) (The Jakarta Post) (The Nation) On September 15, Prime Minister Yingluck will visit Cambodia, one day ahead of her brother Thaksin who will be in Cambodia until September 24. A Pheu Thai source explained that they it was ensured Yingluck left Cambodia before her brother arrived so that she did not get attacked by the opposition for not arresting Thaksin. Due to the nearly coincidental visit of the two Shinawatras, the government clarified that Thaksin was there to attend and speak at the Asian Economic Forum, while all official business was only to be discussed with the Thai government. (Xinhua)
In other Thaksin related news, Deputy Prime Minister Yongyuth Wichaidit defended the potential return of the former PM as overdue. Questioned on how PT planned to bring Thaksin home the Deputy PM refused to give a clear indication but explained that no legal changes or action would be taken that could be perceived as serving one man. (The Nation) Regarding the royal pardon, viewed by the opposition Democrats as illegitimate, Deputy Prime minister Chalerm Yubamrung advised the Democrats to file a motion or debate to better understand the procedures for seeking a royal pardon if they really thought that was necessary. Deputy Democrat spokesman Atthaporn Ponlaboot warned the public that because of the government’s abuse of power for the sake of Thaksin “a new wave of political crises” could erupt in Thailand. (Bangkok Post)
Further reshuffling in government jobs this week brought officials with connections to Thaksin back to power positions. In the Justice Ministry more than 10 department chiefs from the Abhisit administration got transferred to less powerful positions. Suchart Wong-anantachai, who has been appointed director-general of the Corrections Department attracted the most attention and seen as a move to ease Thaksin’s way back home to Thailand. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation) Thawil Pliensri, who was transferred from the job of secretary-general of the National Security Council to the Prime Minister’s Office, formally submitted a petition to the Merit Systems Protection Committee against PM Yingluck calling his transfer unfair. (Bangkok Post)
Economic
Local decline continues as debt and crisis affect the United States and Europe. The Thai baht reached its lowest point since July at 30.10 and sources state that international investors sold $103 million more shares than they bought this week. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has also reduced the Thai economic growth forecast this year to 4 per cent from 4.5%. However, ADP did comment that they believe Thailand’s fiscal position was strong enough to support the government’s upcoming policies. Consumer confidence was reported as in lowered in August dropping to 73.8 from 74.4. A main factor of the drop included Japan’s, Thailand’s biggest export market this year, reports that its economy fell further than its initial estimation in its second quarter. Analysts are confident that Asia will recover and receive more inflow when the US and European economies aren’t strong enough to support investments. (Bloomberg). Flooding in the North and Northeast has also been attributed to the reduction of consumer confidence due to extensive damage to property and crops in the flood-stricken areas. University of Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) has predicted that confidence will fall further when rising cost of goods and living increase at a faster rate than incomes. (Pattaya Mail)
The controversial wage raise policies continue to be contended. Commerce Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong agreed that the government could not force private employers to comply with paying the increased minimum wage. Kittiratt admitted that without the support and compliance of major companies, the government would have a difficult time implementing the policies. Emphasized was placed on stating the policies were not meant to be populist but to help reduce inequality. (Bangkok Post)
The Bank of Thailand has increased borrowing costs for the sixth time to reduce inflation which in turn raised interest rates. Minister Kittiratt’s has replied unfavorably to the growth of interest rates as the Thai government will soon by supporting the debt of billions of baht. Experts predict a potential “policy stalemate” between the two governing bodies will occur when the bank supports tightening monetary spending and the government will need to follow through on their policy promises. If the bank continues to control and heighten costs, GDP will not grow to anywhere near predicted expectations. Coordination of the sectors need to be increased. (Bloomberg)
The Chinese Yuan will soon be affecting Thailand’s economic future. China has increased the use of the Yuan in international trade and investment so as to not rely as heavily on the dollar and to enhance global trade. China has plans to make the Yuan a fully convertible currency in order to meet the standards of the International Monetary Fund. Before the Yuan can become a regional currency, it must be an appropriate benchmark to reduce currency exchange fluctuation. Experts state that if Thailand wants to remain in control of the baht, it must have efficient exchange rate targeting. The overall goal is to increase the volatility of Asian economies by moving in the same direction. (Thailand Business News)
Security
Varying and wide scale security topics impacted Thailand this week. The new government still has not taken action to comply with the ICJ border dispute sanction. Yingluck has stated that decisions will not be made before clarifying the domestic legal process such as requiring the parliament’s approval. However, the Democrat party is putting pressure on the new government to announce its stance on the issue. The Prime Minister is scheduled to visit Cambodia this week and the Preah Vihear is one of many topics she will be discussing with Cambodian counterpart Hun Sen. The meeting between Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and PM Hun Sen is expected to cover the territorial dispute surrounding the Preah Vihear Temple as well as gas and oil exploration in disputed areas in the Gulf of Thailand. Additionally, this trust-building meeting might lead to the release of two yellow shirt Thais currently imprisoned in Cambodia on spying charges. The Cambodian government instantly denied reports they would seek a royal pardon for Veera Somkwamkid and Ratri Pipattanaopaiboon, the two imprisoned Thai nationals. Ms Yingluck initially commented, “I’d be glad if Cambodia agrees to release Mr Veera and Ms Ratree. As the Prime Minister it’s my job to look after Thai people,” but Cambodia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement declaring, “The ministry wishes to reconfirm that the case of these two Thai nationals will be processed in accordance with the law of Cambodia and that they will have to serve at least two-thirds of their prison term before a royal pardon could be considered.” (Bangkok Post)
Hope is being in renewed in Myanmar from new efforts taken by the government. A European commissioner announced that peace and job opportunities have been promised for refugees who return home and the international community will be given easier access to aid disaster and conflict affected populations. It has been emphasized that the 100,000 refugees living in Thailand must return voluntarily. There is discussion that Thailand should investment more on the border to create jobs for those who return. (The Nation)
In regards to the changing relationships with border nations, Yingluck has announced that roles in all three branches of the military will soon be altered in preparation for the creation of the 2015 ASEAN Economic Community. Yingluck has emphasized the importance of bilateral relations, international investment and the changes that will occur from labor migration. “We all have to be prepared for the words ‘change’ and ‘risk’. Yingluck stated while speaking to officers who are studying at the five Thai security colleges.
The Royal Thai Navy’s (RTN) Counter Piracy Task Group, stationed on the Arabian Sea, has potentially found links, specifically financially, between Somali pirates and international terrorist groups. Piracy threatens approximately 18 of Thailand ships a month in the Gulf of Aden, holding value of more than 70 billion baht. Investigations by the RTN have proved that piracy is growing into a complex, exchange network. 12 cargo ships were recently kidnapped for ransom including 322 crew members. The US Combined Maritime Forces with 25 member nations is preparing to preemptively strike against the pirates responsible. (Bangkok Post)
Affecting Thailand’s cyber security, EC-Council Asia Pacific has announced the launch of The Center of Advanced Security Training “Live” Asia Roadshows which will offer two advanced and technical three-day CAST workshops occurring in Thailand. The workshops will address the evolution of new threats, vulnerabilities and exploits of cyber security systems in hands on labs. The goal is to train professionals to build vigorous infrastructure systems to protect against cyber criminals, a growing and tumultuous problem in today’s security environment. (Mass Media Distribution)
Human rights violations are being discussed as critical again this week in regards to men trafficked to work in the Thai fishing industry. Once the boats leave shore, victims work up to 20 hours a day, seven days a week with limited time for eating or sleeping. Victims are coming forward with stories of unwavering brutality and imminent fear of death. The International Organization of Migration has reported that men can spend months or years entraped in areas as far as Somalia. Evidence of lack of trafficking prosecutions in addition to the collaboration of law officials is substantially detracting from all of Thailand’s efforts to combat trafficking, experts’ state. A migration expert from Mahidol University comments that industrialization and globalization take precedence which continues to encourage this type of labor. (AFP)
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