Summary
As the Pheu Thai Party and Yingluck Shinawatra officially begin their term in office in the next few weeks, the new Prime Minister and her formed cabinet face an extraordinary amount of challenges and demands. Ministers are announcing their upcoming objectives and plan of actions while Thaskin is slowly makes moves to re-enter the Thai political scene. Thai and Asian economies remain mostly unaffected by the international decline and consumer confidence is at an all time high as the new Finance Minister continues to plan to implement the heavily debated populist policies. The General Border Committee has been called by both Cambodian and Thai Defense Ministers to issue in a new era of cooperation between the two countries. The North of Thailand is suffering from flooding while The Southern Border Provinces Administration Centre is publically calling on the new government to create change.
Politics
Exiled, former PM Thaksin Shinawatra remains in the forefront of Thai politics. Foreign Minister Surapong Towichukchaikul, recently rated in a poll as the “most disappointing” name in the new cabinet, was blamed for the Thai government’s request for Thaksin’s entry visa to Japan. Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva confirmed that the Democrats’ lawyers are looking into the possibility of taking legal action against foreign minister Surapong for helping the wanted fugitive Thaksin. Furthermore, the Democrats are planning to re-examine the Revenue Department’s decision not to collect taxes from Thaksin Shinawatra’s children from the sales of their ShinCorp shares in 2006. The shares are estimated at around 5.6 billion baht. (livetradingnews)
Pheu Thai MP and core red shirt member Weng Tojirakarn have stated that a constitutional amendment will be one of the top priorities of the party and therefore the government. The goals of this amendment, as stated by Mr. Weng, will be to eliminate all independent agencies set up under the 2007 charter which are “under the influence of the aristocratic elite and the coup makers”. Speculation has arisen that the constitutional amendment would be used to whitewash Thaksin Shinawatra of all charges brought against him, which his sister and new PM Yingluck Shinawatra denies. (Bangkok Post) The Yingluck administration will deliver its policy statement before parliament August 23rd and 24th, marking the official start of the PTP’s term. Yingluck is truly starting to face the pressures and demands of the red shirt voters, the general public, the media and the international community.
The red shirts United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship are pressing the Pheu Thai-led government to pay compensation for the relatives of those killed in last year’s Ratchaprasong riot. A deal between PT and the relatives has allegedly already been made, though with no clear indication about the compensation package. Some sources maintain Yingluck has pledged to give the families 10 million baht each. (Asiaone) (Asianewsnetwork) Additionally, 17 Pheu Thai MPs have announced their intentions to work towards providing bail and release for those who remain detained as a result of last year’s political violence. The MP’s plan to use their parliamentary status as collateral. Allegedly, there are also a group of businesses who have offered to donate 100 million baht to support the red shirt’s bail. (Bangkok Post)
Economic
Incoming Finance Minister Thirachai Phuvanatnaranubala has announced his immediate priorities for his upcoming role and the economic sector. Thirachai has confirmed his plans to go ahead with the PTP campaign promises, specifically focusing on fiscal policy while simultaneously maintaining balance between government officials and the suggested policies. The Minister claimed he believes low income earner’s standard of living will dramatically increase and the increase of prices / inflation will not have a negative impact in the long term. Thirachai has stated that the demand for greater profit will push innovation and influence workers to modernize their working methods. (Bloomberg) Thirachai has also planned to meet with the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to review the core inflation target, currently 0.5-3.0 percent. BOT has asserted that inflation is the number one threat to the country’s economy as the consumer price index has risen 4.08% in the last year.
Thai economists have predicted that the economy will grow by five percent next year if the increases in minimum wage and rice price guarantee programs are successful. The key will be how the policies raise the minimum wage as low as 180 baht in some rural areas and deflate normal activities such as the cost of living. (Voice of America)
The SET has publicized its July 2012 target to launch a new, modernized trading structure to demutualise and increase investment in regional economies in order to fund the reforms being put in place by the PTP. (Live Trading News) Consumer confidence has been analyzed as up for 3rd month. Experts agree there are a variety of factors including the stock market rise, the impact from the general election and the highest rates seen in the index since Jan 2007. Despite the recent economic downturn in the SET, experts predict that the index will rebound from the upcoming economic stimulus policies and increase in spending. In efforts to alleviate some of the international risk, the Government Pension Fund (GPF) has sold a part of its shareholdings in varying local and overseas stock markets. (Reuters) (Bangkok Post)
The new Energy Minister has also proclaimed a number of upcoming goals including investment in the abandoned (due to environment and community concerns) southern landbridge development. This project will supposedly increase investment related to tank farms, oil refining plants and various petrochemical industries but will need a variety of new infrastructures to be built, including a railway to connect Thailand with Singapore. Other international projects include Dawei seaport to link Thailand with Burmese industry and developing overlapping petroleum claims with Cambodia to increase oil reserves. (Bangkok Post)
Security
Thai – Cambodia border talks have been scheduled to be resumed as the new government takes it place. New Thai Defense Minister Yutthasak Sasiprapa and the Cambodian defense minister Tea Banh have called the General Border Committee (GBC) together to work towards a resolution and will meet by the end of August. The two defense ministers will speak without their respective Prime Ministers at a first round of discussions. However, before the GBC can meet, the new Thai government needs to reveal its policy statement to Parliament within the next 15 days. The discussions will concentrate on reducing border troops and bringing normalcy back to citizens living in the border area. (Wire Update) (Bangkok Post)
In other border news, Thailand’s security has been affected on several fronts. Japan has announced its plans to financially support power transmission networks and a system for shared energy supply for Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam in order to accelerate and boost the region’s economy and infrastructure. Malaysia has also announced its efforts in tightening the Thai – Malaysia border to work towards preventing smuggling and crime. Troops are closely watching the border around the clock without leave to ensure the best security possible. (Bernama)
Yingluck Shinawatra visited the North of Thailand this week in an effort to alleviate those affected by flooding through offering relief supplies. Local governors stated that 30,000 households in nine districts of Sukothai have been impacted with an estimated amount of damaged around one billion baht. Significant sums of local farmlands have been destroyed and four people have been killed thus far.
In regards to new policy related to the army, Gen Yutthasak Sasiprapa has announced that no commanders of the armed forces will be removed unless their tenure is already scheduled to end (the permanent secretary for defense, the supreme commander and the navy chief). The General has stated that it is his priority to renew the relationship between the PTP and the military along with determining solutions related to the South and the Cambodian border.
In the South, an assistant to a village headman was killed in Pattani from a drive-by shooting, a school bus driver was shot to death in Pattani and a citizen was killed while collecting rubber. The Southern Border Provinces Administration Centre (SBPAC) has asked to have a meeting with the new administration to discuss its future role and the PTP’s plans to continue with its campaign promises of making the South a special administrative zone. SBPAC was previously dissolved under Taskin’s administration. The SBPAC has claimed that during the month of July, 70 insurgency-related incidents occurred in which 50 people were killed and 120 wounded and there were more bomb explosions than in the past. (Bangkok Post)
Long term debate over migration laws were renewed when Mr. Thu Wen, a recently legalized migrant worker from Burma, died due to his inability to pay hospital bills. Recent efforts has been made to give illegal workers in Thailand amnesty and the opportunity to come forward to register however due to lack of understanding, fear or ability, about one million illegal immigrants continue to live and work in Thailand. Mr. Wen, who did apply for a legal work permit, was not registered by his employer for social security despite the Ministry of Labor’s guarantee to benefits. This lead to Mr. Wen death when the employer did not fulfill his obligation and the victim was unable to pay his medical expenses. Exploitation remains continually pertinent and migration a significant concern. (Shan Herald Agency for News)
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