Summary
The battle continues in regards to Thaksin’s role in the PTP government. Strong support and resistance of Thaskin’s future return to Thailand is debated in various sectors while Thaksin supporters are convinced his return will not only be welcomed by the majority but he may even resume the Prime Ministry. Economic woes are approaching as local and international communities are panic selling worldwide. Lack of progress in the United States and Europe has set the precedent for a potential recession, leading Thai economic analysts to question whether the risky, debt inducing policies are appropriate for the present international conditions. The Thai government maintains the state is ready to implement a stimulus package if needed. The Thai-Cambodian border dispute is being rearranged in numerous ways including future plans for the border area and the officials who make those decisions. Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul attended the United Nations General Assembly and reported back several updates on diplomatic ties including the US and Portugal. Amnesty International (AI) has released a report accusing the Southern military insurgents of war crimes which are only further justified by the criminal actions of Thai authorities and the role of The Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC) continues to be fought over.
Politics
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra had to face unsympathetic criticism this week for allowing her brother Thaksin to join a Pheu Thai Ministers meeting via web-cam. Thaksin apparently used 2 hours of the meeting to lecture PT ministers on economic policies and support programs for flood victims upon other things. For opposing Democrats as well as Thaksin critics this was a welcome opportunity to reiterate their already previously held belief that Thaksin would actually be in power and Yingluck would just serve as his puppet. PM Yingluck denied any lecturing stating, “It was a normal chat, just with Puea Thai ministers, not the whole cabinet. Thaksin called during the end of the meeting to show support to all, not to advise on anything.” (Bangkok Post) (Thomson Reuters Foundation)
In related news, United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship chairwoman Tida Tawornseth stated in an interview that the red shirts would welcome Thaksin to return to Thailand, including all 16 million people for voted for Pheu Thai. Reporters further inquired if Tida believed Thaksin should become Prime Minister; she stated that the charges against Thaksin have to be resolved first and following that, there is a democratic process to become Prime Minister.
As reported last week, a group of legal scholars from the Thammasat University named the Nitirat group suggested to nullify all judicial decisions related to Thaksin (consequences of the Sept 19, 2006 coup) as well as amending the Criminal Code Section 112 on lese majeste in order to solve the political divide in Thailand. This evoked harsh criticism from the Democrats as well as Army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha, Squadron Leader Prasong Soonsiri and the Lawyers Council of Thailand. The Democratic Party accused the Scholars of trying to whitewash Thaksin’s crimes which Nitirat member Associate Professor Worachet Pakeerut denied. Army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha focused on calling attention to the group’s attempt to amend the lese majeste law, stating that there was “no justification to revise the offence against the monarchy” and that any effort to do so should be met with scrutiny by society. Squadron Leader Prasong Soonsiri warned that the Nitirat Group’s proposition may even lead to another coup, agreeing with the Democrats belief that Nitirat Group was trying to whitewash Thaksin Shinawatra. The Lawyers Council of Thailand stated that the academics suggestion would only cause confusion about the constitutional monarchy and that Section 112 of the Criminal Code should be maintained to protect the monarchy. Regarding the judicial nullification attempts, the Lawyers Council was not convinced by the group’s arguments relating to examples from Germany, Switzerland, Greece and Turkey, as the justifications would not be comparable to Thailand’s case. The Lawyers Council concluded that the Nitirat proposal seemed to be in the interest of one former politician rather than social justice. (The Nation) (Bangkok Post)
Thailand’s government declared that it will review hundreds of prosecutions that occurred after the 2006 military coup to better understand the link that led to years of political turmoil, a recommendation from an independent panel called Truth for Reconciliation Committee. Government spokeswomen Thitima Chaisang said that both royalist Yellow Shirts who took over the airport and supported the 2006 coup as well as their opponents, the Thaksin-supporting Red Shirts would be included in the reviews. (Voice of America)
Flooding continues to ravage 23 provinces with nearly 2 million people affected and causing 158 deaths so far. PM Yingluck Shinawatra announced that more than 40 million baht would be needed to be spent to prevent future flooding. Additionally, a more integrated effort would be needed from authorities of different provinces so that prevention measures of one province do not cause problems for surrounding provinces. The cabinet meanwhile approved the allocation of another 7.2 billion baht to pay compensation to farmers whose crops have been damaged by the floods. Accordingly 1,437 baht per tonne of rice crops damaged by the flooding will be paid as financial aid in addition to the 2,222 baht per rai the government is paying rice farmers whose fields were flooded. The additional compensation will only be paid to rice farmers registered under the rice price guarantee scheme of the previous government though. (Asianewsnet) (The Nation)
Economic
Crisis has ensued this week as the Stock Exchange of Thailand fell 6% to 900.75, with trading value of over 50 billion baht, the lowest slump in three years. Both foreign and local investors bailed out of the market due to uncertainty from the West’s economic decline (including the disappointment emerging from the U.S.’s “Operation Twist”) and the fear of stunted domestic growth. Numerous Thai officials have noted that they did not expect so much decline resulting from panic. The baht may reach 32.10 per dollar, the weakest level since August 2010. At the beginning of last week, international investors sold 4.11 billion baht worth of Thai shares and have sold a net of THB12.69 billion so far this month. Reviewing the most typically traded stocks, PTT was down 3.6% at THB 291, Advanced Info Service was down 4.55 at THB 118, Siam Cement fell 4.4% to THB 282, and Thai Oil dropped 5.9% to THB 52.25. Experts have suggested that below 950 points for the SET index, the Thai market should provide “attractive valuations.” (Bloomberg News) (Wall Street Journal) (The Nation)
The Thailand’s Finance Ministry cut its economic growth forecast for this year as demand for exports continue to be reduced and floods destroy agricultural crops. The forecast for 2011 has changed to 3.8% – 4.3% 2011, compared with Junes forecast of 4% – 5% expansion. Rubber has been specifically noted as a determining factor in the future of Thailand’s economy. The cash price of Thai rubber fell 3.2 percent 136.10 baht ($4.37) a kilogram this week and heavy flooding in the southern provinces is disrupting production. Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia represent about 70% of global supplies, and natural-rubber inventories have risen from 305 tons to 33,766 tons but is still 51% below this year’s high of 68,850 tons. (Bloomberg)
According to Deputy Prime Minister Kittirat na Ranong and PM Yingluck, the fundamentals of the Thai economy has stayed strong including low public and private debts, listed companies’ earnings growth and high dividends, as well as low share prices. “Thailand’s balance sheet is healthy and can handle the impact from a global economic crisis in case more funds are needed to stimulate the domestic economy”, says Finance Minister Thirachai Phuvanatnaranubala. While there might be decreases in the export sectors, those who are dependent on exports are being advised to switch their focus to internal markets. There will continue to be a follow through of increasing the wages of middle income earners and farmers to help boost domestic consumption. (Bernama) (Bangkok Post)
Outside critics do not necessarily agree with Kittirat and have requested the government revisit its policies in light of the economic downturn. Paiboon Narintarangkul, chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (TCMA), has stated that the plans were created 6 months ago when the economy was in different shape with fewer risks. The TCMA proposed 7 new economic policies that may make more sense in the midst of changing world conditions to reduce market losses. The proposals included: “1. Reprioritize policies to boost confidence and save partial budgets for necessary measures 2. Delay policies that would hurt the export sector, such as raising the minimum wage 3. Invest more in infrastructure, thereby boosting private investment 4. Reassure investors on a corporate-tax cut 5. Set up a market support fund 6. Pause hikes in the policy interest rate 7. Strictly honor fiscal disciplines and minimize corruption” Experts maintain that volatility will remain the same as European leaders have only acted to implement time-buying measures resulting in panic selling. Despite the possibility of developments for Asia if there is a global recovery, there still remains a great chance for the US and Europe to sink into a recession. (The Nation)
Security
Thai Defense Minister General Yutthasak Sasiprapa traveled to Cambodia this week to foster bilateral relations, specifically focusing on strengthening governments and militaries ties. The meeting was meant to set a precedent for the General Border Committee, scheduled for November, which will be convening to settle border disputes. Both Generals agreed to abide by International Court of Justice order to withdraw troops surrounding the Preah Vihear temple but an exact date has yet to be decided upon. There has been a shift in roles, as Virachai Plasai, the ambassador to the Netherlands, and head of the Thai team and director of legal affairs Chatri Attajanant, will no longer be advisers to the GBC. The total restructuring plan will lead to the replacement of 19 ambassadors who will retire on September 30th with the pending approval of PM Yingluck. Thai Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul maintained that the Thai legal team at the World Court would remain intact to support an efficient defense process. Abhisit Vejjajiva has reiterated that Thailand’s priority should act in the interest of fighting Cambodia at the ICJ to determine land and maritime rights and the government should employ officials who are already familiar with process.
It has also been announced that Prime Minister Hun Sen is working to help Thai Patriots Network coordinator Veera Somkwankid and his secretary Ratree Pipattanapaiboon get a royal pardon and reduction of their jail sentence resulting from illegally crossing the border last year. Police General Pracha stated that the reduction will not be related to the proposed prisoner exchange program, where a prisoner may return home after serving one-third of their sentence, so as not involve national security. (MCOT) (Bangkok Post)
In related diplomacy news, Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul met with US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell at this week’s United Nations General Assembly. It was reported that Campbell and Surpong discussed many pertinent issues including Thailand’s past waning role in ASEAN, Burmese refugees living along the Thai-Burmese border and political stability and reconciliation in Thailand following the July 3 election. In regards to Cambodia, Surapong was quoted stating “If Thailand and Cambodia can achieve improved relations through negotiations, it can be used as a model to resolve other conflicts like that between Palestine and Israel”. Similar discussions were held with Portuguese Foreign Minister Paolo Portas. Surapong announced that Thailand should consider investment with Portugal with a focus on developing alternative energy sources, such as wind, solar and waves, to replace reliance on oil and gas.
Using surveillance videos, police have identified two suspects from last week’s triple bombing in the province of Narathiwat in the Deep South. An analysis of the conflict revealed that despite Islamic radical’s opposition of drug use, gangs who traffic the drugs, are donating cash to the Islamic radicals. This benefits both sides as the radical continue to call attention to their cause and the violence is used as a distraction for gangs as police efforts are re-focused away from anti-drug operations. The police have stated the drug gangs may now be planting bombs themselves. New intelligence is stemming from Islamic radical websites which has attracted many Thai Muslims. From monitoring the websites, information has been gathered in regards to who is active in these radical activities. (Strategy Page) (Bangkok Post)
International pressure on the government to take action towards mitigating the conflict is heightened this week as Amnesty International (AI) has accused the insurgents of deliberately targeting civilians and places blame on the Thai authorities. Authorities were accused of inciting abuse and not taking appropriate action to end the conflict or impose justice. Security forces were found to be guilty of unrestrained behavior, including extrajudicial killings, AI has concluded that the attacks may be labeled as war crimes and although the conflict is rooted in their struggle as a minority, their goals, actions and networks remain unclear. The insurgents have rarely put forward specific demands or participated in negotiations. AI reported that around 31,000 members of the armed forces are in the South in addition to the 10,000s of militias who are protecting isolated settlements. AI requested authorities remain strict on gun ownership laws, investigate crimes committed by security forces and build plans other than counter-insurgency strategies to address culture and local grievances. (BBC) (Boston Globe) (Reuturs)
The Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC) and its high ranking positions are continuously being fought over. The ISOC is in place to reduce illegal drug trade, illegal immigration, violence in the three southernmost provinces, terrorism and transnational crimes, forest protection and promoting the royal institution. In the past, Abhisit Vejjajiva and the Democratic Party held full control of ISOC and opposing theorists suggest that ISOC was being used to sway people from supporting the Pheu Thai Party. General Panlop Pinmanee, Yingluck’s nominee for ISOC director, was rejected by the military. General Panlop has recommend Yingluck appoint him as chief adviser and utilize her power listed under Section 8 of the Internal Security Act to act as ISOC director as the government unit head.
A new center has opened this week, the Medical Association of Thailand, which will be responsible for unifying solutions and promoting development in the southernmost provinces. The center will be run by Deputy Prime Minister Kowit Wattana. Prime Minister Yingluck announced that through the center, Lt General Udomchai will restructure organizational efforts and authorities to speed up policy implementation in the region. Police Lt General Kowit will be in charge of ISOCs work to address security and development in the South. Kowit has already announced plans to partner with the Southern Border Provinces Administrative Centre. This week, 2 police officers were seriously wounded in a bomb explosion in Pattani, 2 unmanned army operational bases in Narathiwat were set on fire and a rubber taper was shot and injured in a drive-by shooting in Narathiwat. (Bangkok Post)HDFF Weekly Thailand Review Sept 26 – Oct 2
Comments are closed