The HDFF team virtually attended The Jamestown Foundation’s webinar on “How Ukraine wins.”.
Context of the webinar
The following quote is Jamestown Foundation’s opening statement regarding the “How Ukraine wins” webinar:
“President Volodymyr Zelenskyy outlined his vision of Ukraine’s path to victory and peace at the United Nations General Assembly last month and presented his plan for victory to the U.S. presidential candidates. Building on the NATO Summit and the peace summit in Switzerland, President Zelenskyy appealed to UN member states to support Ukraine and diminish Russia’s ability to continue further military aggression against his country.
While Moscow is using Iranian and North Korean missiles against Ukrainian cities, killing hundreds of civilians, Kyiv is still not allowed to use American long-range weapons against military targets inside Russia. In response, Kyiv has intensified its already successful drone war against military and fuel targets in Russia. By destroying Russian airfields near Ukraine, glide bomb attacks against Ukrainian cities have already been reduced by 50 percent, according to The Jamestown Foundation.
In August, Ukraine’s armed forces also invaded the Kursk district in Russia, undermining the Putin regime by demonstrating Moscow’s inability to defend its own population. The Kursk operation has boosted Ukrainian morale, diverted Russian resources, and undermined confidence in Moscow’s ability to defeat Ukraine among states in the ‘Global South.'”.
Speakers
General (ret.) Philip M. Breedlove, Former Commander of U.S. European Command.
Major General (ret.) Volodymyr Havrylov, Director of the Veterans Dozen Foundation and Former Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine
Boris Bondarev, former Russian diplomat.
Moderator – Ia Meurmishlivi, Chief International Correspondent at The Cipher Brief
Introduction by Peter Mattis, President of The Jamestown Foundation.
The webinar started with a contextual introduction by The Jamestown Foundation’s president Peter Mattis. He introduced the session with a brief history of the Ukraine-Russian war and with the current situation in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be presenting his Victory Plan at the October 18th Ramstein Meeting, this plan is related to emphasize Ukrainian military strength, technologically advanced weapons and enhanced sanctions from the West against Russia.
Ia Meurmishlivi addressed the first main question to General Breedlove regarding his vision on the war today and on the impact of western weapons on the war.
General Breedlove stated that reporting on the ground was very mixed, but overall positive, Ukrainian soldiers are holding in almost all the directions they are being attacked in. His main point regarding the current situation of the war was that, although it is still a very difficult spot for the Ukrainian side, the Russian side is suffering from very heavy losses. General Breedlove reported that in Donbas, the Russian lines are thinning overtime, and the region is becoming an example of the Russian trouble to recover from their losses.
In order for victory to happen, Ukraine needs, according to General Breedlove, a “clear, declaratory, and public” announcement of U.S. and Western support and that victory would mean the recovery of Ukrainian territorial integrity. Based on this first step, General Breedlove stated how the West needs to change their type and level of support. He affirmed that the U.S. are currently not giving Ukraine the proper tools and support they need to win this war but rather what they need to not lose.
General Breedlove also predicted a shift in the road for negotiations. His position is that they would come soon and the West and Ukraine together should be careful not to allow Russia to take the upper hand as they did during the 2008 and 2014 negotiations.
General Breedlove was overall very adamant on how he doesn’t see a Ukrainian victory without a NATO membership. Such a decision would enable the U.S. to provide more dense abilities to Ukraine and allow them to use European nuclear kits in order to be on a superior or equal footing to Russia who uses his allies’. Likewise, the role of Chinese, Iran and North Korean technology and equipment have on this war was emphasized and the General’s position is that a discussion needed to start over the consequences they would get.
Ia Meurmishlivi, following General Breedlove’s vision, asked Major General Volodymyr Havrylov the Ukrainian’s government outlook on the war, over the American vision and their needs to achieve victory.
Major General Havrylov started by explaining how much of the current Ukrainian survival was due to their powerful civil society. He followed up on the negotiations talks by re-emphasizing how any discussion should be focused on the retaking of Ukrainian territory.
The Ukrainian position regarding the war is that Russia greatly underestimated many things in Ukraine, including the power of their civil society, and they now view Russia as being “the hostages of the situation”. Major General Havrylov followed up by explaining that this was the reason Russia was now trying to attract “grey zone” allies and trying to get any positive result from this war. Three areas of focus were outlined: obtaining modern warfare; getting all the necessary instruments of precision; and protection for Ukrainian troops and infrastructures. Major General Havrylov then really focused on how their partners contributions are crucial, how this was the kind of support Ukraine needs and should be getting, specifically a guaranteed and public western support.
Major General Havrylov reasoned this vision by explaining how it was the first time in Russian history that they are alone in their war, especially suffering from sanctions, limited resources and no support from their population nor their civil society. This is why, according to him, Ukraine needs to strike on these Russian weaknesses, and why they need the West’s support in order to “take over Russia’.
Former Diplomat Bondarev was then asked by the moderator if, based on his co-speakers previous statements, pressure should be increasing in Russia, specifically on President Putin’s entourage, and what his vision is on the reaction of the Russian population.
Former Diplomat Bondarev started by expressing his full agreement with Major General Havrylov statements. He then explained how the Russian population is highly individualist, it is a society “who wants to be left alone by the government”, and is thus very apolitical and indifferent.
According to Former Diplomat Bondarev, President Putin’s entourage is convinced that the West is “weak and weakening”. The main reasoning is based on the West’s unreliability, using German Chancellor Scholtz decision to stop sending weapons to Ukraine as an example, and Former Diplomat Bondarev stated that this reasoning was not such a far-fetched possibility in his opinion.
Former Diplomat Bondarev proceeded with an overview on Russian economy. Russian warfare is inherited from the former Soviet Union, however the country’s functioning is not the same as the Soviet one, rendering the use of this warfare as less efficient. Likewise, it is to be kept in mind that Russian GDP is less than those of Texas or California. He concluded by expressing that it is now in the hands of the West to prioritize their spendings in order to help Ukraine to modernize their technology, and thus take over the war because they have the capacity to. Former Diplomat Bondarev then stated that the only “medicine” against the Russian offensive is to keep fighting everyday on the ground and “make them feel enough losses so the population realizes how this war affects everyone”.
Ia Meurmishlivi, to conclude the speakers’ statements part of the webinar, asked General Breedlove whether – after the Ukrainian report regarding their shutting down of the “mystery Russian drone” – he saw this as a sign that the Russian military was no longer untouchable. General Breedlove quickly answered by stating that this event should be taken very seriously and the part of Russian technology coming from Iran, China and North Korea should be determined, in order to properly evaluate the threat of Russian innovation, which relies heavily on foreign equipment.
Questions from the audience
- Regarding the Russian-Chinese relation, there is a global sense that Russia is a “junior partner” to China, who benefits heavily from the war. How does the Russian government view China at this point?
Former Diplomat Bondarev articulates that Russia acts as a cover for China – and has been for decades – but he believes that President Putin doesn’t view China as their “senior partner”. Rather, Former Diplomat Bondarev explains that the Russian reasoning is to “deal with Ukraine and the U.S. first” and then, address the Chinese issue. Today, although Russia needs to use China and pay homage to them, they don’t view themselves as Chinese subordinates.
- Regarding the Black Sea and its strategic location for NATO, what if Odessa is taken by Russia? What impact would this have on NATO security?
Major General Havrylov states that Russia does not have this “hidden goal of conquering NATO” and emphasizes that, right now, their objective is Ukraine. The only country who should be worried today is Romania, according to the General, although NATO’s security concerns are understandable.
Major General Havrylov explains that the next concerns will regard air defense issues in the area, because if Russia loses their air superiority, then they will lose the Black Sea. It is, according to Major General Havrylov, only a question of time before Ukraine obtains the technology coming their way to attain air superiority, and with the limited capabilities on the Russian side, he expects a new dynamic in the Odessa area in 2025.
General Breedlove states that one of the outcomes of the war is also to get a viable Ukraine, and that it should not be forgotten. This entails security in the Black Sea and for Odessa to remain open to the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, which won’t be happening if Russia remains in Crimea. General Breedlove emphasizes strongly that the Ukrainian territorial integrity’s demands very much include Crimea.
- Regarding President Zelensky’s victory plan, does it include a negotiation, and is it even possible to force Russia to sit at the negotiation table?
Former Diplomat Bondarev expresses that he does not see this as a probability, although if they do, it will be in a position of power and of enforcing their will on Ukraine.
Major General Havrylov agrees that there is a very low probability of Russia agreeing. The overall agreement is that the Russian state of mind regarding negotiations is to accept once both parties don’t have any more ways to victory. The Ukrainian position is that today, President Putin’s view is that he can obtain his objectives slowly but surely and he thus feels safe enough to not go into negotiations.
What they also both agree on is that President Zelensky’s victory plan demands a western public and clear support, and that it is necessary.
- Regarding Turkey, what is their role in this war?
General Breedlove gives Turkey credit for their serious application of the Monroe rule, and he doesn’t see any sufficient reason to try and change it. He also states that Turkey are doing a great regulation job, nevertheless, NATO would like to see Turkey taking more NATO positions outside of Monroe.
- A possible endgame is seen during the year 2025, which ending do the speakers view?
General Breedlove expects the war to last two to three years and stated that the U.S. and the West should remember that Russia’s goals here are bigger than Ukraine, that it is the epicenter of their politics now but that the objective is bigger.
Former Diplomat Bondarev explained that in case of Russian victory, all Russian emigres in his case will remain away from Russia. He also emphasized on the fact that Russia does not have the capacity to win, rather he can be allowed to win by the western community. He also insisted on the fact that this scenario would lead to Chinese moves on Taiwan, then North Korean moves on South Korea, etc In order to prevent that, Ukraine “needs more from the West”.
Major General Havrylov stated that Ukrainians need to show they will continue to fight as long as possible and prove to Russia that they are not scared, and to do so with their partner’s public and clear support.
Comments are closed