On October 27, Japan held a snap election for the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of Parliament, amid widespread dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Ishiba called the snap election last month, even before his formal swearing-in as prime minister. Now, just one month into his tenure, his future as PM is uncertain.
The results were historic: the LDP and its smaller coalition partner Komeito won only 215 seats, a drop from their previous 279. Meanwhile, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the largest opposition party, gained substantial ground, increasing its seats from 98 to 148.1 The remaining seats were distributed among other smaller opposition parties. To have a majority in the lower house of parliament, 233 of the 465 seats are needed.
The results reflect the Japanese public’s call for change in domestic politics, following decreasing public trust in the LDP after corruption scandals involving prominent party members. The Political Funds Control Law violations, including the failure to disclose profits from ticket sales, and a 4.8-million-yen embezzlement case involving lawmaker Hakubum Shimomura, have led to widespread criticism.2,3 In a nationwide Yomiuri Shimbun survey, conducted the days after the snap election, 91.4% of the respondents thought that LDP’s losses were due to the so-called “slush funds scandal”.4 Another key factor in voter dissatisfaction is what some see as Prime Minister Ishiba’s vague political agenda and lack of concrete plans to achieve his goals.
In a speech following the results, Ishiba acknowledged the outcome, stating that the LDP would “humbly accept” it as this reflects a judgment from the Japanese people. He added that the party would address public criticism by enacting “fundamental reform regarding the issue of money and politics”.5
This election represents a significant shift: the LDP, historically Japan’s dominant political force, is now unable to form its traditional coalition government. Having held power almost continuously since 1955, this marks the first time since 2009 that the LDP has lost its parliamentary majority. The LDP would need to secure additional seats from one of the opposition parties to regain a majority. This is a challenging task, given that some parties refuse to negotiate with them. However, in response to the election results, Ishiba announced that the LDP would not expand its coalition, but rather continue to govern without a parliamentary majority.6 This means the LDP can no longer pass legislation alone, marking a notable shift in Japan’s political landscape.
On November 11, a special parliamentary session is set to select Japan’s next prime minister, a process expected to last four days. CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda is anticipated as a possible contender. However, it seems unlikely that the left-leaning CDP could form a majority coalition with the center-right parties, Nippon Ishin and the Democratic Party for the People (DPP). Historically, Japan’s opposition parties have struggled to build consensus among themselves or convince voters of their ability to govern effectively. However, Mr Noda told a news conference that his party would work with other opposition parties with the goal being a change of government.7 If the CDP cannot secure agreements with smaller opposition parties, PM Ishiba will likely be re-elected and continue leading the country with a minority government.
The recent election underscores a critical moment in Japanese politics, where public calls for accountability have shaken the foundations of long-standing political dominance.
1: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/28/japan-election-results-2024-ldp-cdp-ishiba-noda
4: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/10/30/japan/politics/ishiba-ratings-plunge/
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