HDFF Bi-Weekly Thailand Review 13/5 – 26/5
The Police investigated the area around Ramkhamhaeng Soi 43/1 after a bomb explosion injured seven persons in Bangkok on Sunday (Source: Bangkokpost)
Summary
In politics, Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung proposed a reconciliation bill that is supported by 163 Pheu Thai MPs but not the executive branch of the party. The bill would provide a blanket amnesty to everyone involved in past political violence from 2006 until now but was instantly met by strong opposition from the opposition parties as well as the red shirts. A new by-election will be held in Don Muang after Pheu Thai MP Karun Hosakul was disqualified by the Supreme Court for defaming his opponent from the Democrat Party during the general election in 2011 and consequently banned from politics for five years. Asia-Pacific nations have signed the “Chiang Mai declaration” to improve their water management and promised closer cooperation to defuse tensions conflicts over the natural resource.
In economics, ASEAN integration is moving ahead and attracting big investors such as General Motors and Scania to invest in Southeast Asia. The ASEAN Economic Community held a meeting last week in Bangkok to discuss, among other things, future investment potential in Myanmar. Thai companies are moving to invest, especially in the household consumption sector, to take profit from the large potential of the opening neighbour market. While investors move full steam ahead, worries are voiced about the volume of Thai household debt despite reassurances from the Ministry of Finance.
In security, On Sunday night, 26 of May, a bomb exploded in Bangkok, at Ramkhamhaeng Soi 43/1 and injured seven people. This bomb explosion marked the first bombing in Bangkok for several years. Police says that it is not likely connected to the separatist movement in Thailand’s three southernmost border provinces. While the violence in the southernmost provinces of Thailand continues, the National Security Council (NSC) secretary-general Paradorn Pattanatabut recently pointed out, that the peace talks with the BRN (Barisan Revolusi Nasional) will continue. The third round of peace talks will be held on June 13 in Malaysia.
Politics
In the ongoing aftermath of Prime Minister (PM) Yingluck Shinawatra’s speech at the Democracy Forum in Mongolia, the accused hacker of the PM’s website, which was smeared with a derogatory term, Narongrit Suksarn, aka Window 98se reported to Police to deny the accusation. He was adamant that he never visited the PM’s website and claimed he was likely double-crossed by the “Unlimited Hack Team”, which he was once a member of but left after internal conflicts. The hacker team responded by posting on Facebook that Mr. Narongrit was never a member of their team and that it would be completely insane to “smear others by putting their actual name”. Police meanwhile are of the belief that Narongrit hacked the website but didn’t change anything, later on shared the information with other hackers who then posted the insulting term on the website. Narongrit on the other hand felt betrayed by police, who he says used his help to track down the hacker but didn’t officially announce his innocence.
The office of the Thai Rath newspaper, which publishes Chai Ratchawat’s cartoons and was recently in the headlines for his controversial comments about PM Yingluck, was attacked on Saturday morning, May 11. Four men on two motorcycles threw two iron petanque balls and firecrackers at the security booth in fromt of the head office, injuring two security guards slightly. The Thai Journalism Association issued a statement condemning the attack, saying it was a deliberate act of press intimidation. (Bangkok Post)
The PM’s democracy speech was pushed out of the headlines though after Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung proposed his version of a reconciliation bill, supported by 163 Pheu Thai MPs. The bill was submitted to Parliament by Pheu Thai MP for Yasothon Piraphan Palusuk on May 23 and would provide a blanket amnesty to everyone involved in past political violence from 2006 until now. His bill is thus in contract to the amnesty bill proposed by Samut Prakan MP Worachai Hema, which would not include amnesty for leaders but only demonstrators. Before submission of the bill Mr. Chalerm removed article 5 of his initial bill which sought to provide financial compensation to people affected by political violence and crackdowns because as it would rely on the national budget PM Yingluck would have had to endorse it. Pheu Thai spokesman Prompong Nopparit announced that although Deputy PM Chalerm’s bill is supported by Pheu Thai MPs, it is not supported by the executive branch of the party. He clarified that, “Pheu Thai has resolved to support Worachai’s bill and will not take up Chalerm’s version for deliberation at the same time.” Chalerm’s bill was instantly met by criticism from the opposition as well as red shirts, who do not want a blanket amnesty for military leaders of the 2010 crackdown. Perhaps in a direct response, Chalerm has recently personally promised to bring Thaksin Shinawatra back to Thailand until the end of the year. Worachai’s bill is at the top of the house agenda when parliament reconvenes on August 1, while Chalerm’s bill is not on the house agenda yet. (Bangkok Post) (Phuket Gazette) (The Nation)
The Supreme Court disqualified Pheu Thai Party member Karun Hosakul as an MP and banned him from politics for five years for defaming Democrat Party MP Thaenkhun Chit-itsara during the general election in 2011. Consequently, the by-election in Don Muang will be held on June 16 and will be contested by Democrat Party MP Thaenkhun Chit-itsara and Pheu Thai candidate Yuranunt Pamornmontri. Yuranunt, who stood unsuccessful in the 2009 Bangkok governor election, stated that the party probably chose him because of his close relationship with the people in Don Muang and for his work in the district in the aftermath of the 2011 floods. Te Election Commission will sue Mr. Karun to pay for the by-election, which will cost around 10 million baht. (Bangkok Post) (Pattaya Mail)
PM Yingluck has called on all Asia-Pacific nations to cooperate in sustainable water management to handle natural disasters more effectively. She delivered the opening speech at the second Asia-Pacific Water Summit held in Chiang Mai on May 20. She furthermore urged countries to reduce the destruction of the environment and prevent deforestation and warned that a war over water could erupt if countries wouldn’t agree to share and work together. Summit leaders of the Asia-Pacific nations adopted the “Chiang Mai declaration” which states: “We declare to encourage the adoption of policies and measures to reduce water pollution, combat desertification, improve water quality and protect wetlands, rivers and the other source of fresh water.” Despite the region’s economic growth about two-thirds of the Asia-Pacific’s population does not have access to potable, piped water services, according to the Asian Development Bank. The Bank attributes this to poor management and lack of investment in infrastructure. Environmental groups gathered alongside the summit to protest the “top-down” approach to water management and lack of focus on major environmental and trans-boundary development projects and their social impacts. (Straits Times) (Ooskanews) (Pattaya Mail)
Economy
Amid worries for Thai products’ competitiveness as a result of the minimum wage reform and government pledging schemes for agricultural products, a Thai delegation to Brussels is hoping to get more Thai products certified with the Geographical Indication (GI) stamp from the European Union. After the Hom Mali Thung Kula Rong Hai rice, the delegation has applied for certification of Sung Yod rice and Doi Chang and Doi Tung coffee from northern Thailand. Increasing recognition of Thai products and quality is expected to help promote the products despite their higher price levels compared to products from neighbouring countries. (The Nation)
Ongoing ASEAN integration is starting to show clear signs of attracting industry and investment as General Motors and Scania, a Swedish truck producer, announce plans to expand their production and market share in Southeast Asia. The government’s first-car policy has increased car purchases in Thailand and it is now mainly car and motorcycle leasing that accounts for the increase in household consumer loans since 2011. In Thailand, household debt has risen steadily over the past years but credits for cars and motorcycle leasing grew by 33.9 % in 2011 whereas other consumer loans declines by 17.4 % in the same period. Loans for property investments have also increased while prices for condos have risen at the same time. On the outskirts of Bangkok land prices have gone up by more than 50 % in some areas as the expansion of mass transit routes continues. Prices are expected to continue to rise as demand remains equally strong while the supply decreases. The supply is expected to decrease although new development is abundant along the new mass transit routes and especially on Sukhumvit after Soi 55. Although some voices have been heard raising doubts about the sustainability of the current household debt trends, the Fiscal Policy Office (under the Ministry of Finance) does not yet believe that there is any need to worry. (Bangkok Post, The Nation)
Last week, the ASEAN Economic Community held a seminar in Bangkok to discuss, among other things, the potential for new investment in Myanmar. At the moment, the opportunities are seen as especially important for companies that produce consumer goods as general household income is slowly increasing in the country. The Thai beverage company ThaiBev recently concluded an over 300 billion baht deal with another company that has a stake in Myanmar Brewery Ltd. The plan is to start important beverages into Myanmar but also to export beer from the country to Thailand for the important migrant worker market. (Bangkok Post)
Security
On Sunday night, 26 of May, a bomb exploded at Ramkhamhaeng Soi 43/1 in Bangkok at a crowded market place and injured seven people. This bomb explosion marked the first bombing in Bangkok for several years. Police says that the bomb explosion is not connected to the separatist movement in Thailand’s three southernmost border provinces. It was most likely connected to disputes between vendors over selling spaces and related to an expert from a bomb inspection unit it is unlikely the explosion was the work of southern insurgents, sources say. Police is investigating. At time of this writing, sources say that a former teacher was arrested suspected of planting the bomb. (Bangkok Post/ The Nation)
The situation in Thailand’s southernmost provinces stays tense. The violence continued and causing many casualties and disturbances through shootings or bombings the past two weeks. Meanwhile the emergency decree will be lifted in five districts in the southern border provinces next month and will be replaced by the less harsh Internal Security Act after the current term of enforcement ends on June 19. The affected districts are: Kapho district in Pattani; Betong and Kabang districts in Yala; and Waeng and Sukhirin districts of Narathiwat. The Internal Security Act opens the way for suspected insurgents to turn themselves in to authorities, to prove their innocence and be sent for training before being released, instead of facing legal action. (Bangkok Post/ The Nation)
Concerning issues of self-protection the military is helping five villages in Pattani set up a “people’s army” for improving the ability to defend themselves against security threats. Thereby the 44th Rangers Regiment chief Niti Tinsulanon has provided weapons training to residents and educated them on how to set up and man security surveillance points. About 200 residents have joined the citizen defense volunteer units in their respective villages so far. (Bangkok Post/ The Nation)
The third round of the peace talks will be held on June 13 in Malaysia. Recently a new BRN video with demands was released on You Tube. Adam Muhammad Noor, who is described as a “staff vice-delegate” of the group in the video, reiterated the five demands, which were published before the last peace talks and emphasized that the continuing conflict in the far South stemmed from “colonial rule” in Pattani. After the video of BRN was published, National Security Council (NSC) secretary-general Paradorn Pattanatabut pointed out, that the peace talks will continue, but the negotiation framework is not yet clear. Chavalit Yongchaiyudh’s, the former prime minister, recently made a proposal for setting up of a special administrative zone in the region of Pattani, but Lt-Gen Paradorn said it would not yet be taken up for consideration. (Bangkok Post, The Nation)
Concerning the security situation in Thailand, a currently published ranking of a British-based firm specializing in risk management and terrorism insurance recently cited that Thailand is the world’s ninth most-prone country to terrorist attacks. The top-10 countries at risk from terrorism are, in order Afghanistan, India, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia, Somalia, Syria, Thailand and Yemen. (Bangkok Post/ The Nation)
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