A Lebanese man with alleged ties to Hezbollah is arrested in Bangkok
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Summary
The reshuffle of the Pheu Thai Party cabinet just six months after the original appointment has caused significant controversy and what experts believe to be another move in supporting Thaksin’s control. Focus is being laid on the new defense minister, deputy minister for agriculture and energy minister due to their notorious roles in the previous government and 2010 riots. First quarter growth remains slow but Thai industries are working to reinvigorate development including The Export Promotion Department which has suggested numerous future plans to capitalize on international markets. HSBCs “The World in 2050” report published that Thailandwill come in at 23rdin 2050 with a GDP of $856 billion but analysts are concerned as to how this growth will affect quality of life. The arrest of (potential) Hezbollah member followed by the seizing of bomb-making chemicals near
Bangkok has led the international community to believe terrorism is a threat inThailand. Although the investigation is ongoing, Thai officials are distressed by the United States Embassy’s initial bold and public warnings of the attack. The Chinese led joint patrol along theMekongRiver is attacked for a second time, leading experts to question the patrol’s effectiveness and a potential dispute at the Thai-Cambodian border remains troubling. Teachers in the South are asking the government for protection again the insurgency while violence continues.
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Politics
The Yingluck Government will be incorporating 10 new ministers into its cabinet while six ministers will be transferred to different posts. His Majesty the King approved all proposed changes mid-week, and the Yingluck Government is reportedly using the reshuffle as a chance for a new beginning, as the old cabinet has been under tremendous stress due to the flood crisis. Regaining lost confidence is the main objective, as the government infrastructure investments start to be developed, analyses Sriyan Pietersz, head of research at JPMorgan inThailand. (Financial Times) Critics instantly described the reshuffle as a further “Thaksin-isation” of the government, with former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva additionally asking PM Yingluck for a substantial justification regarding such a major reshuffle after only 6 months in charge. PM Yingluck Shinawatra denied that her brother had any say in the changes in personnel and insisted on it being her choice. Her newly appointed deputy education minister Sakda Khongpetch didn’t do her any favors in this context when he announced to have met Thaksin this week inHong Kongin order to help deliver a message to the newly appointed ministers. “He asked me to tell other ministers to focus. Efficiency has yet to be achieved. Every ministry is expected to show results in six months,” Mr. Sakda stated. (BangkokPost) After those six months another reshuffle is expected to take place as the ban on 111 Thai Rak Thai officials will have run out.
Of all the changes made, three new ministers received the most attention, ACM Sukumpol Suwanatat as defense minister, Natthawut Saikua as deputy minister for agriculture and Arak Chonlatanon as energy minister. Mr. Sukumpol, who has been a close friend of Thaksin since they studied together in Class 10 of the Armed Forces Preparatory School, will replace Yutthasak Sasiprapa, who is seen as being too soft in handling army matters. Army sources are already speculating that this move might contribute to a different working environment, claiming “The armed forces and General Yutthasak are getting along well. They talk like brothers. That could now end, as the new defense minister is likely to target General Prayuth.” Additionally, Sukumpol will try to change the Defense Act as soon as possible, giving the defense minister a say in military appointments – a move that will not be appreciated by some inside the army. (The Nation) (BangkokPost) The new agriculture minister, senior red shirt leader Natthawut Saikua, who previously held a government spokesman position under a previous Thaksin government, will be returning to the cabinet. Natthawut was an obvious target of criticism due to being charged with terrorism for his role in the 2010 protests. Finally, the Democrat Party announced that incoming energy minister Arak Chonlatanon will receive special observation from the opposition party as Thaksin’s interest in the energy sector of neighboring countries was well known, stated Abhisit Vejjajiva. In addition to these three ministers, Nalinee Taveesin, who is newly appointed as the PM’s Office minister gained attention due to the fact that her name was on theU.S.blacklist. She was added to the list because of financial and real-estate transactions for Grace Mugabe, wife of the Zimbabwean Dictator, as well as other Zimbabweans under similar bans. (WashingtonPost) Regarding those allegations Ms. Nalinee stated in the Krungthep Turakij newspaper, “It was a misunderstanding on the part of theUS. This happened a long time ago. I didn’t do anything as alleged.” (The Nation)
PM Yingluck Shinawatra made an official one-day visit to the Philippineson Thursday, January 19th. In her meeting with President Aquino, she was expected to discuss trade, particularly agricultural exports, as well as investment policies. Ms Yingluck announced she would use this opportunity to explore opportunities to increase rice, fruit and vegetable exports to thePhilippines. (Mcot)
Suspected murderer and Democrat MP Khanchit Thapsuwan is still not cooperating with Police forces investigating his potential involvement in the murder of Udon Kraiwatnussorn, Democrat Party MP. Provincial Police Region 7 has decided not to send a letter to the house speaker as previously announced, as they feel to have enough evidence against Mr. Khanchit and no further questioning was necessary. (BangkokPost)
Economics
Thailand’s finance minister, Thirachai Phuvanatnaranubala, has claimed that the economy in the first quarter will slow to 2.6% growth, but is optimistic that 5% growth for the whole year is still feasible. Growth will mainly depend on if post flood rehabilitation thrives, including the distribution of the upcoming 168 billion baht loans which will be used to support reconstruction. The minister attributed the slow first quarter growth to the gradual nature of the recovery in the flooded industrial estates. Thirachai has asked the private sector to keep a substantial amount of cash on hand to lessen the affects of the global downturn. On a positive note, rice production inThailandmay increase 16%, an all-time high as estimated by Apichart Jongskul, secretary-general of the Office of Agricultural Economics. The increase will occur as a result of expanded plantings to offset losses. Total output may surge to 36 million metric tons, split between 25 million tons in the main crop and a second harvest of 11 million tons. At the beginning of the week, banking shares remained weak due to the prospect of reduced earnings. Banking shares fell 0.3 percent to the lowest rate in more than a month. (BangkokPost) (Reuters) (Bloomberg)
HSBCs “The World in 2050” report was published this week, predicting Thailandto become the world’s 23rd-largest economy in 2050. Thailandis one of several emerging economies that will enter into the “top 30” status. Aside from Thailandwithin ASEAN, the Philippinesis predicted to rise to 16th, Indonesia is expected to come in at 17th, Malaysia at 21st, Vietnam at 41st and Singapore at 42nd. The Kingdom’s gross domestic product is expected to more than quadruple from US$187 billion (about 6 trillion baht) in 2010 to $856 billion (about 27 trillion baht) in 2050. The report anticipated that 19 of the top 30 economies will be countries that are currently “emerging”, and thatChina andIndia will become the global powers with the most significant growth. Other power growth nations varied considerably includingNigeria,Peru and thePhilippines. DespiteThailand’s profitable trajectory, analysts are questioning whether a raise in economic rankings will improve quality of life. Analysts are maintaining that the growth should have well-planned strategy base which responds to the needs of the people. Development should be encouraged not just for the sake of growth but in line with sustainable lifestyles.Thailand has experience a fast paced rate of industrialization and urbanization, a large contributing factor toThailand’s growth predictions. However, some are concerned that growth comes at the expense of traditional lifestyles and environmental security. As demonstrated by the floods, factories and housing projects were significant impediments to the flow of natural waterways. Thais should continue to considering the cost benefit analysis of what citizens will gain from this economic milestone. (The Nation)
In related international ranking news, in spite of Standard & Poor’s decision to cut the credit ratings of nine Euro zone nations (Cyprus, Italy, Portugal and Spain by two notches; Austria, France, Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia by a notch) Bank of Thailand (BoT) governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul has announced that the decreased credit ratings will not starkly impact Thailand. “After the downgrade, the value of the Thai baht today weakened against the US dollar but it is in line with other currencies in the region. The baht has not depreciated to a worrying level” claimed. Thai financial institutions and investors do not have significant investments in any of the nine countries. (BangkokPost)
As Thailandis depending on the success of its international relationships, future export plans are being discussed. The Export Promotion Department has encouraged corporations to focus on producing higher value-added products in all sectors and for further development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in order to reap the benefits of free-trade agreements. The Export Promotion Department maintains that Thailandwill no longer be able to utilize low-cost, labor-intensive production as a result of the daily minimum wage raise in April. The goal is to increase export opportunities in emerging markets while also preserving the Kingdom’s segment of traditional markets, highlighting value-creation, innovation and the right markets. The focus of products is also going to be shifted as consumers are becoming increasingly concerned about health and value-added products while also boosting sales in industries such food, jewelry, life-style goods and toys. Industries that are expecting flat growth are garment, furniture and footwear sectors. More than 100 trade activities have been scheduled overseas including trade fairs both abroad and in Thailand, business-matching services between importers and exporters, the launch of Thai exhibitions and the promotion of Thai products and brand names (see an announcement example here).
Thailand’s electronics exports are expected to rapidly decrease in the first quarter due to continued post-flood manufacturing and the economic slowdown recovery. Despite resuming activity, Sampan Silpanad, president of the Electronics and Computer Employers’ Association believes it will take factories months before resuming to pre flood levels of output. The seven inundated industrial estates contained 60 hard-disk drive (HDD) and components makers. KResearch forecasts that electronics exports will resume positive growth within a range of 4.5-7.5% to $32.9 billion this year after returning 4.5-8.5% last year. Exports of electronic goods and home appliances combined are targeted to grow between 5.9-9.9%, up to $57.7 billion after falling by between 0.3-2.6% last year. (The Nation) (BangkokPost)
Security
Making international headlines, Thailandinured what was made out to be a shockingly significant security threat this week. On the evening of Thursday January 12th, Atris Hussein, a Lebanese man with a (faux?) Swedish passport was arrested at Bangkok’s main airport. The Thai authorities arrested Hussein after Israeli intelligence agents warned that a group potentially connected with Hezbollah was planning to strike tourist sites in Bangkok in mid-January. On Friday January 13th, The United States Embassy released an emergency message stating terrorists may be planning attacks against “tourist areas in Bangkok in the near future.” Following the warning, Thai officials confirmed the arrests of terrorist suspects and vowed that security in Bangkok was being stepped up. On Monday January 16th, the Thai police units followed Hussein to a three-story commercial building he had been renting for a year in Samut Sakhon,Bangkok and seized what they claimed was a large stash (8,800 pounds) of two chemicals, ammonium nitrate and urea. Both chemicals can be used as a base for rudimentary bombs as well as fertilizers. Top police officials exclaimed that investigation proved the chemicals were meant to be shipped out of the country and were not intended to release an attack on Thai soil. Hussein had contacted a shipping company inThailand to send the material out of the country in container units. The destination location remained disclosed. Hussein will be charged with possession of prohibited substances in violation of the Arms Control Act.
Following the controversy, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, claimed, “The situation is under control — no problem. And I can guarantee the safety of our citizens and foreign tourists.” Senior Thai officials scrambled to deny thatThailandwas facing an immediate terrorist threat, following the dramatic warning by the US Embassy. The United States Embassy warning was the first public notice of potential attack, and Defense Minister Yuthasak Sasiprapa claimed that the Thai authorities did not release news of the alleged plot so as not to heighten fears that would hurt the tourist industry and cause panic. Several news sources have pointed out that Thai officials’ statements were ambiguous and confusing, especially as noted in Deputy Prime Minister for security affair Chalerm Yoobamrung’s contradictory statements about how many suspects were arrested. At first Chalerm claimed the police arrested two Lebanese, but later stated in another interview that only one Lebanese was detained for interrogation. Yuthasak later stated that the second suspect had managed to leave the country as the detained suspect had not yet been charged with any offence. Foreign Minister Surapong Tovijakchaikul also released a statement he was “greatly disappointed that theUSand other countries had issued travel warnings to their citizens over terrorism risks without consulting the Foreign Ministry”, which is supposedly normal procedure. “I want theUSto have some manners by talking to the Foreign Ministry first,” Pol General Wichean stated. Foreign Ministry permanent secretary Sihasak Phuangketkaew invited Judith Cefkin, deputy chief of mission at theUSembassy, to discuss theUSwarning about possible terror attacks. Reported by the Bangkok Post, The US continues to refuse to lift the terror alert because it wants Thailand to allow US authorities to take part in the questioning the suspect. (BangkokPost) (New York Times) (Today Online) (Phil Star) (Reuters)
Bordering bilateral relations also continues to be a source of conflict. Chinese police concluded the second joint patrol along theMekongRiverwith their counterparts fromLaos,MyanmarandThailand. The joint patrol fleet and a commercial vessel arrived atGuanleiPort, located in Xishuangbanna region in southwestChina’sYunnanProvince. After arriving at the port, the vessel, Shengtai-11, was attacked by unidentified gunmen. The attacked boat, which was carrying timber, immediately sought help after the gunfire. Reportedly, none of the five crew members were injured and around 200 Chinese and Laotian police arrived on the scene to handle the crisis. “Police inLaosare still searching for the gunmen,” said an unidentified police officer. “The river has been safer after the joint patrols, but in order to provide a thoroughly safe environment, we’ll increase the number of patrols in the future.”Patrol forces also maintained that they have now acquired more experience in fleet sailing, and recognizing early warning mechanisms and coordinated fight plans, ensuring the success of future patrol missions along theMekongRiver. Dai Peng, dean of the criminal investigation department of the Chinese People’sPublicSecurityUniversity, released a statement that he does not think increasing the frequency of patrols can solve such attacks. Peng also claimed that rescue operations for the attacked ships are likely to be delayed because the number of cargo vessels is much higher than the number of ships used for patrol. (ChinaDaily)
Indonesian Defense Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro announced that after collaborating with Cambodian foreign minister,Indonesiawill be sending military personnel to the Thailand-Cambodia border as well as an observation team. The troops are being trained at the Indonesian Peace andSecurityCenterin Sentul, West Java which began as soon asThailandapproved the deployment of the peace corps at the border. The troops were originally supposed to be deployed in 2011 but were delayed when a dispute took place andThailandwas going through a change of power. The troops will be deployed by May at the earliest. Early this week, Thai and Cambodian troops “faced off” in Phu Makhua, in the disputed 4.6 square kilometer area around Preah Vihear temple, igniting suspicion that renewed border clashes would occur. About 20 Thai troops were patrolling thePhuMakhuaMountainon the border when they encountered a group of Cambodian soldiers who were surveying the area. Both sides claimed territorial rights to the area and despite negotiations, refused to retreat. It was reported that Colonial Thanasak Mitopanon, commander of the 26 Ranger Regiment, ordered the immediate closure of Pha Mor I Dang cliff, the disputed border area, in case clashes broke out. Colonial Thanasak denied that the closure was related to the confrontation but because tourists had not been warned about the regiment’s exercise. (Tempo Interactive) (BangkokPost)
Trouble continues in Southern Thailand as teachers called upon the government to provide more security, marking Thailand’s Teachers’ Day, chaired by Fourth Army Region commander Lt-Gen Udomchai Thammasarorat, at YalaRajabhatUniversity. Manop Boontawiroj, president of the Yala Teachers’ Federation, asked the government to be more attentive to security measures and safety of the teachers, as many southern teachers have been killed in the insurgency. The Southern Border Police Operation Centre reported that, as of the end of 2011, 144 teachers and education workers were killed in the southern unrest. Wichan Athikapan, director of BanManangkayiSchoolin Narathiwat, vowed that Narathiwat educators would continue to work within the southernmost provinces and would honor those who had been killed by remaining teachers. The teachers also observed a one-minute silence to honor the teachers who had lost their lives. A police officer and his 14-year-old son were killed in a shooting attack and a father and his daughter were shot dead in their house this week, both in Pattani.
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