In politics, the Constitutional Court nullified the February 2 elections, creating a reason to celebrate for PDRC followers and to mourn for UDD supporters. Monk Issara continues to fight for the unpaid rice farmers. Yingluck and Suthep are urged to hold televised discussion. Senate elections, which went undisturbed, may hold the fate of Yingluck’s possible impeachment.
In economics, the political situation in Bangkok has continued to have lasting effects on the country. Thai economy and its growth rest on a timely process of installing a new government. Many worry about Thailand’s involvement and advancement in the upcoming ASEAN community due to economic setbacks. Salaries are expected to rise and unemployment along with it. Rice farmers are to receive 20 billion THB by the month of April.
In security, as anti-government protests continue, and the Constitutional Court rules the February 2 elections to be invalid, numerous violent attacks occur around the country, in Bangkok, Chiang Mai and Chon Buri. In other news, Thawil Pliensri resumes his post as Chief of the National Security Council and vows to focus on illegal cross-border smuggling. In the south, conflict and violence continues, with increased fears raised over teachers’ safety following the fatal shooting of a teacher in Narathiwat, and former Chief of the Border Coordinating Centre, General Aekkanit Muensawat, provides advice on finding a solution to the political crisis.
(Picture: The Nation)
Politics
On March 21, the Constitutional Court ruled (6:3) to nullify the February 2 elections. During the elections 28 Southern constituencies within 8 provinces had no candidates, thus inhibiting a complete nation-wide vote, held on the same day. This violated Article 108 (2) of the constitution, which states that elections must be held throughout the nation on the same date. The People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) was extremely pleased when the verdict was announced in Lumpini Park by PDRC leader Satit Wongnongtaey. The PDRC’s ultimate goal is reform before election as PDRC leader Thaworn Senneam stated. As reform goals didn’t happen before the last election, this verdict gives the PDRC another chance to achieve national reform before the next election and remove the current Caretaker Prime Minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, and her Cabinet, removing what the PDRC sees as the Thaksin regime. It may be a while until new elections are held. The caretaker government has agreed to work with the Election Committee (EC) to establish a date submitted for HM the King’s approval. But, as Caretaker Education Minister Chaturon Chaisang made point, the PDRC could again obstruct voting and elections will continue to be nullified. (The Nation, National News Bureau of Thailand)
Monk Luangpu Buddha Issara led farmers from the Chaeng Wattana rally site to the Government Lottery Office (GLO) on Friday, March 21. He demanded that GLO use lottery funds to buy the rice and when no answer was received, proceeded to dump the 100 tonnes of rice in front of the office, vowing to continue with his demands. (The Nation, National News Bureau of Thailand)
On the PDRC front, another massive rally was held on Saturday, March 29. The rally was led by Suthep Thaugsuban and began at Lumpini Park and proceeded to the Royal Plaza and Parliament. His various speeches made to the people throughout the procession focused on his vow to eliminate the Thaksin regime, reform based on democratic principle, prevention of Parliament from reopening before reformation and the return of now monopolized power to the people. (The Nation, National News Bureau of Thailand)
The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship’s (UDD) new leader Jatuporn Promphan announced that a massive rally of “red shirts” would take place on Saturday, April 5. Location was recently named to likely be Aksa Road in Phuthamonthon area of the Thawi Wattana district of Bangkok. This announcement came after a previous mass rally in Pattaya where followers were asked to wear black in a sign of mourning the Constitutional Court ruling, which nullified the February 2 elections. PDRC leader Suthep Thaugsuban has called for a meeting of his co-leaders to decide on a date for a “decisive war” against the caretaker government on April 5th also. Caretaker deputy premier, Surapong Tovichakchaikul warned this could cause risk of a confrontation. (Bangkok Post, The Nation, National News Bureau of Thailand)
Recently, former prime minister and Democrat Party leader, Abhisit Vejjajiva, who is currently being charged with murder during the 2010 crack down on red shirt protesters, has urged Yingluck and Suthep to come together for discussion. It is unknown whether Democrats will run in upcoming elections, however Abhisit stated the party would run, given it was fair and “acceptable to all sides”. He has agreed that some methods to reform cannot be arranged before elections due to the fact that they would require amendment changes. However, he stressed the importance of a televised talk between Yingluck and Suthep to clarify information each side disputes and establish a greater level of confidence and awareness among people. (The Nation, National News Bureau of Thailand)
The National Anti-Corruption Committee refused to extend caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s time to prepare her case against allegations of malfeasance and dereliction of duty, which could lead to indictment. She had requested to be treated fairly, as another politician would be, the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) had sent 280 pages of trial material to her, but gave her only three days time to study the information before she had to defend herself on Monday, March 31. Yingluck along with her lawyers met with NACC commissioners Monday, April 31 to defend herself against charges. If the case is pursued, it would be likely that she would face Senate impeachment processes. (The Nation, National News Bureau of Thailand)
Senate elections, opened on Sunday, March 30, ran undisturbed. These election results could determine the fate of caretaker Prime Minister, with a possible impeachment on the line. According to unofficial results, expected results were obtained, with very few elected senators (officially supposed to be politically neutral, but are not) conflicting with the political views of the regions they represent. Jaruwan Mainthaka has taken the senatorial seat of Bangkok by wide margins according to the unofficial results. Results must be endorsed by the EC in 30 days, but during this time they may be called upon to vote on the Prime Minister’s potential impeachment. (The Nation, National News Bureau of Thailand)
(Picture: Bangkok Post)
Economics
The political deadlock has continued to affect the Thai economy. The recent verdict that nullified the February elections was seen by the private sector as a positive indicator that a new government would be established and fully authorized to manage economic areas that the caretaker government cannot. Director of the Thai Chamber of Commerce’s Economic Forecasting Centre, Thanavath Phonvichai, believes that should a new government be installed by the third quarter after elections, the economy in Thailand could grow 2-3%. However, many research firms expect lower than 3% GDP growth due to the resulting decrease in tourism, consumerism and investment caused by the political deadlock. Up to 120 billion THB are estimated to have been lost in opportunities due to the political situation according to the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industries and Banking. (The Nation, National News Bureau of Thailand)
The Ministry of Finance, for the third time in three months, has decreased economic growth forecasts due to the lack of a new government with full, financial administrating power. Somchai Sujjapongse, head of the Ministry of Finance’s Fiscal Policy Office (FPO), stated that due to the government having no budget this year, the public sector has become a pull on economy. The 2 trillion THB infrastructure bill rejected by the Constitutional Court last month further limited national economic stimulation. Decreased growth rates and inflation could cause consumer confidence and investment to drop in Thailand. Food prices showed a 2.11% inflation on the consumer price index (CPI) from March of last year to March of this year. Asian Development Bank (ADB) has warned that if a new administration is not in office by October 1, which is the fiscal year’s beginning, growth rates will be less than 2.9%. However, the upcoming Songkran holiday is expected to reboot manufacturing production levels which have been on the decline for 11 months. (Bangkok Post)
Other worries surrounding Thailand’s economic competiveness in the upcoming 2015 ASEAN Community and even potential suspension have been brought up by various coalition parties. Chart Thai Pattana Party member, Somsak Prissanananthakul feels that the political conflict could prohibit Thailand from becoming an ASEAN economic hub as hoped for or even suspension from the community. Additionally, Ath Pisalvanich, the director of the University of Thai Commerce’s International Trade Studies Centre estimated that 480 of 4,000 small/medium sized Thai enterprises would seek to invest elsewhere such as Indonesia, Myanmar and Laos. That would account for 77 billion THB in investment lost. Other Thai industries, around 1,440, may move production to neighboring countries due to political unrest and low economic growth. Relocation could account for another 46 billion THB investment opportunity lost. (The Nation, National News Bureau of Thailand)
On Friday, April 4, seven ASEAN stock markets are set to launch a joint ASEAN/FTSE Index. Made up of 180 constituents, its hopes are of attracting ASEAN and global investors therefore raising exposure in ASEAN markets. Among various stock exchanges based in Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore, the Philippines and Malaysia, the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) will also sign on Friday. The 30 largest market cap stocks from the SET50 will be included in the new ASEAN/FTSE Index. The launch will create new investment opportunities and marks the first collaboration of ASEAN stock giving comprehensive information to attract global investment. (Bangkok Post)
The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) has forecasted a potential rise in unemployment to between 1.2% and 1.5% among the total workforce in comparison to 2014’s forecast of 1%. Unemployment averaged 0.7% in 2013. The industrial sector being hit is also an effect of the current political situation. Many of those affected are recent graduates and educated workers. Also, in connection to the political unrest and economic slowdown, salaries are expected to rise due to the rising cost of living and organizations delaying employment. The survey conducted by Towers Watson, a global professional services company, estimated the salary rise at 6%. Within the survey they also found that many companies are ill-prepared for the upcoming ASEAN Economic Community, lacking key skills in internal language training and leadership development. (Bangkok Post)
Rice farmers have been promised by the caretaker government 20 billion baht by April. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong did not say where the funds would come from. The caretaker government bought the rice at over 40% the market price, and has failed to sell large stocks. Mr. Kittiratt vowed that one-fifth of the 96 billion THB owed would be paid in the coming month. (Bangkok Post)
(Picture: Bangkok Post)
Security
On 21 March, the day after Thailand’s Constitutional Court ruled that the 2 February election was invalid, bomb blasts occurred in Bangkok, Chiang Mai and Chon Buri. In Bangkok and Chon Buri, the attacks occurred near anti-government protest sites in Chaeng Watthana and Tambon Bang Sai respectively, but no injuries were reported. In Chiang Mai, however, three men and a woman were wounded when a bomb exploded at a PTT petrol station in Muang district. A second attack occurred in Chiang Mai just an hour later when 2 grenades were thrown into the office of Broon Rawd Brewery Co., which belongs to the family of Chitpas Kridakorn, a high profile leader of the People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC). The PDRC’s co-leader, Thavorn Seniam, warned that the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) would try to encourage a violent response from the opposition by inciting such violence, but urged the continuation of peaceful protests. No suspects have been found in relation to these attacks, and fears of political violence continue. (Bangkok Post)
Thawil Pliensri is due to resume his post as the National Security Council Chief. The caretaker Cabinet revoked the 7 September 2011 decision of the Prime Minister’s Office to transfer him to PM’s advisor, after he won a legal battle ordering that his removal was unlawful. Upon his reinstatement, he declared that his first move will be to address the problem of people and arms smuggling as currently, he says, the government turns a blind eye, allowing this illegal cross-border activity. His statement came after police uncovered six gas cylinders, five pipe bombs, a five litre container of fuel, and two motorcycles at a house in Min Buri district. (Bangkok Post)
It has been revealed that that the fatal shooting on Sunday of Sgt Wanchana Konsin of Yala Task Force 16, in Muang district, southern Thailand, was not carried out by southern insurgents as the media has been reporting, but was in fact carried out by a colleague for reasons that have been linked to work-related stress. In response to this the Commander has created measures to reduce the likelihood of such incidents, including extra time-off and welfare support. The army’s medical centre will also carry out monthly assessments on the well-being of soldiers. (Bangkok Post)
Also in the south, the Narathiwat Teachers’ Federation has urged authorities to increase security for teachers, after the murder of Somsri Thanyaluck at Bankhok Mueba Mittraphap 223 School, in Narathiwat’s Tak Bai. The female teacher was shot on Thursday 20March, on her way home from school, and seven suspects have been arrested. Attacks on teachers are becoming more frequent, threatening the stability of the education system in the south. Amongst rising tensions and the lack of effective solutions, more teachers are asking to leave and fewer parents want to send their children to school. In Pattani’s Muang district, the Federation of Teachers of Three Southern Border Provinces met to discuss proposals to the government for more assistance. (Bangkok Post)
With the historic signing of the peace deal between the Philippine government and the southern rebels, some have found new hope for solving the crisis in the south. The former Chief of the Border Coordinating Centre, General Aekkanit Muensawat, has provided some lessons on the past year of the peace dialogue with the southern provinces. These lessons include issues such as:
- Lack of coordination between the Security Council and other national security agencies such as the Foreign Affairs Ministry and the National Intelligence Agency, leading to a lack of participation amongst them.
- Thailand’s lack of sufficient knowledge, peace-dialogue making experience, and preparedness.
- Not enough meaningful dialogue within the Thai Security Council.
- Lack of channels to inform the public about the process, and hence lacking public support.
General Aekkanit Muensawat suggested possible solutions, such as further including Malaysia as peace facilitator or mediator, and creating a new agency specifically for the peace dialogue. (The Nation, National News Bureau of Thailand)
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