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Summary
In politics this week, fallout continues from NASA’s cancellation of seeking to use U-Tapao airbase for climate studies. Despite this, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is putting the topic to a debate in parliament. Meanwhile, controversy carries on over the proposed amendments to Thailand’s constitution. More hearings are scheduled, but the the Constitutional Court has since ordered all 416 MPs who voted in support of charter amendment draft to justify their decision.
In money news, the Finance Ministry plans to borrow 1.7 trillion baht over the next seven years to finance infrastructure projects. Analysts favor the move, as they say it will decrease excess liquidity, and imports of capital goods would keep the baht value low. At an economic ministers’ meeting this week, attendees outlined measures to counter the impact of the euro-zone crisis, which include speeding up budget disbursement, seeking new markets for exporters, and providing assistance to specific industries.
On the security front, three bomb blasts in Yala province killed an assistant village chief and injured six soldiers. Another explosion in Narathiwat injured 12 people. In Bangkok there was a large fire at an oil refinery in the densely populated neighborhood of Bang Chak. No causalities were reported and despite obvious concerns for safety, no evacuations were ordered. The Ministry Public Health has maintained that the pollution so far is below dangerous levels.
Politics
After a short and public debate NASA officially announced on its website on June 27 that it had to cancel the SEAC4RS mission, which was scheduled to begin in August 2012, due to “the absence of necessary approvals by regional authorities in the timeframe necessary to support the mission’s planned deployment and scientific observation window.” Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra in a response announced through her spokesperson that “it is unfortunate to lose this important opportunity for NASA and Thai scientists to collaborate to collect data of scientific importance to not only our two countries but others in the region as well,” but decided to bring the topic to parliament anyway because of fierce criticism from the opposition, analysts stated. The opposition Democrat Party previously followed a double strategy accusing the Pheu Thai Party of offering U-Tapao airbase in Rayong for NASA’s weather research in exchange for a U.S. visa for former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, while additionally accusing the government of compromising Thai sovereignty and allowing the U.S. to set up a base to contain China in the Asia-Pacific region. US Embassy spokeswoman Kristin Kneedler denied any such speculations, calling NASA’s “Southeast Asia Composition, Cloud, Climate Coupling Regional Study” purely scientific while Defense Minister Sukumpol Suwanatat announced that the project has no military connection and that he informed China’s Central Military Commission, which stated no objections regarding the project.
NASA originally signed a joint statement in September 2010, during the Abhisit Vejjajiva administration, but the administration did not follow up on the agreement any further. Anthony Davis, a Thailand-based security analyst with global research firm IHS-Jane’s, stated that the whole debate was “almost entirely about domestic politics and bad American timing, but primarily the former.” An air force source on the other hand expressed his concern with the envisioned usage of the ER-2 aircraft, originally designed as a spy plane, for its atmospheric studies as it was a single seat plane thus making its missions unable to monitor. Kristin Kneedler remained adamant in her denial of any secret spy missions announcing, “all the data generated will be available to anyone via the Internet and scientific results will be published in the open scientific literature.” NASA’s study was intended to find out how air circulation during the monsoon affected the climate and air quality in South and Southeast Asia. NASA spokesman Steve Cole announced that no decision was yet made if the study could be done next year or further in the future.(Mcot) (BBC) (China Post) (Wall Street Journal) (Reuters) (Bangkok Post) (Washington Post)
In the continuing debate regarding the charter amendment bill, around 35,000 red shirt supporters gathered at Democracy Monument in central Bangkok on Sunday June 24, chosen for its symbolism as it coincided with the 80th anniversary of the end of absolute monarchy in 1932, to show their disapproval of the recent Constitutional Court decision to stop the third hearing of the charter amendment bill. Read shirt leaders in unison accused the court of collaborating with the elite around the monarchy and army in setting up another judicial coup and thus regard the court as an obstacle to true democracy. Besides announcing a commitment not to back down over this issue, Somwang Assarasee, a red shirt leader, announced that “if the court decides the charter cannot be amended, we will not listen. We are prepared to defy the court.” Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political analyst at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, showed understanding for their line of argumentation stating that “the injunction against the charter amendment bill reinforces the red shirts’ view that the judicial odds are stacked against them.”
With the constitutional hearings – 8 witnesses will argue for the unconstitutionality of the charter amendment bill and 7 will argue for the constitutionality – taking place on Thursday and Friday, July 5-6, observers are already speculating that a ruling against Pheu Thai could be used by the opposition to demand the dissolution of the governing Party. Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yubamrung argued that the court would dismiss the petitions against the bill as many senior judges, legal experts and academics argue that the amendment of section 291 did not contravene section 68 of the constitution but in any case, Prime Minister Yingluck as a non-member of the executive board of Pheu Thai would stay in power and could set up a new party and continue to govern. Wallop Supariyasilp, a former MP for Nan who represented the People Power Party, a previous Pheu Thai incarnation, meanwhile already offered to take in Pheu Thai members in case of the party’s dissolution into his Pheu Dharma Party. The Constitutional Court additionally ordered all 416 MPs who voted in support of charter amendment draft to justify their decision. (Bangkok Post) (Wall Street Journal) (Reuters) (Al Jazeera)
Democrat Party MP Boonyod Sooktinthai demanded that Parliament President Somsak Kiatsuranont should step down as House speaker after the satellite channel Blue Sky, which is close to the opposition, aired a tape of Mr. Somsak in which he stated that he talked the “person far away” into agreeing not to push for debate on the controversial reconciliation bill in parliament to avoid public opposition. In response Prime Minister Yingluck denied that this would prove that Thaksin is secretly running the government and insisted that her cabinet would work independently. (Bangkok Post)
Economics
On Wednesday July 4, the Constitution Court invalidated Revenue Code clauses that disallowed married women from including their non-earned income when filing a separate tax return. These clauses are viewed as unfair to married women, who have to pay more taxes than unmarried women due to the combined income with their husband’s, which usually fall into higher tax bracket. With the verdict, married women are expected to be able to include non-earned income in their personal tax returns starting the next tax year. (The Nation)
The Finance Ministry plans to borrow 1.7 trillion baht over the next seven years to finance infrastructure projects, which are estimated to have 2.27 trillion baht need for investment. According to Mr. Chakkrit Parapuntakul, director-general of the Public Debt Management Office, part of the cost would be financed by public-private partnership, which could cut some of the burden on the central bank. Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand also supported the government’s mobilization of funds via the domestic borrowing. According to the central bank’s governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul, the country’s financial system was now in a relatively liquid position; borrowing money in the domestic market would help drain excess liquidity. Furthermore, building infrastructure would result in higher imports of capital goods which would keep the baht value low and favorable to the exporters. Therefore, the government’s borrowing should help unload the central bank’s burden improve its balance sheet. (The Nation) (Bangkok Post)
From the economic ministers’ meeting on July 4, the measures to counter the intensifying impact of the euro-zone crisis have been outlined, as associated risks remain significant despite the agreements reached by European Union leaders last week. The measures cover across six areas including maintaining macroeconomic strengths, speeding up budget disbursement, seeking new markets for exporters, assisting labor, increasing tourism income, and providing assistance to specific industries. The economic ministers also pointed out the need to support the prices of crops such as rubber, which have only slowly risen despite an increase in oil prices. (The Nation)
The Thai baht stayed steady near a two-week high after global funds increased holdings of Thailand’s assets amid the speculation that central banks in developed countries, especially those in the euro-zone, may ease monetary policy. The baht value touched 31.38 per dollar which is the strongest level since June 20, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Thailand’s consumer confidence also rose in June as easing oil prices and improving economic indicators support the country’s outlook. (Bloomberg)
Regarding the fire that struck the Bangchak Petroleum’s Bangkok refinery on Sukhumvit Soi 64 in the morning of June 4, Bangchak Petroleum estimates that the accident will cost it 500 to 600 million baht in lost revenue. However, the property damage and business interruption are insured by its sole insurer, Dhipaya Insurance, and no significant impact is expected on product sales to customers. The government’s new safety requirements pressure the Bangchak refinery to move out of Bangkok; in this case, the relocation would cost as much as 50 billion baht for investment. Nevertheless, despite the fact that the plant unit caught fire for the second time in two years, Energy Minister Arak Chonlatanon rejected the plans to relocate Bangchak’s Petroleum refinery complex from Bangkok’s densely populated Phra Khanong district. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
In the third-quarter investment focus, Hong Kong and Shanghai Bangkok Corporation (HSBC) overweight on the prospect of Thailand’s shares, along with China and Taiwan, influenced by supportive monetary policy, expectations of growth surprises, abating political risks and valuations that support earnings growth of listed companies. HSBC economists believe that despite the devastating floods and global macro uncertainties, banks’ earnings still seem resilient. Within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), they believe Thai banks currently offer the best investment proposition. (The Nation)
Viewers who rely on a satellite or the internet for their TV signals may experience blackouts during broadcasts of the summer Olympics in London which will run from July 27 to Aug 12. Mr. Surin Krittayapongpan, vice-president of Channel 3, stated in a seminar on consumer solutions for licensed broadcasts on July 5 that since the Television Pool of Thailand (TV Pool) had solely bought terrestrial broadcast rights for the Olympics, a “black screen” phenomenon similar to what happened during the Euro 2012 football tournament could happen again. However, True Visions, this time, has its own license to broadcast the Olympics through its nine HD channels. Supinya Klangnarong, a commissioner of the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission, said the consumers will lose out if the broadcast business still continues to function in such a divided manner. (Bangkok Post)
Security
Violence continued to shake Thailand’s southern border province of Yala this week. On Tuesday, three separate bombings left an assistant village chief dead and six soldiers injured. The first attack occurred at about 8:50am in Muang district, when a roadside bomb planted in the front basket of a bicycle went off as an army truck went by. While five soldiers were wounded by the initial blast, two of them seriously, an ensuing attack by several men speeding past in a truck didn’t inflict more casualties. Police believe the attack to be retaliation against recent arrests by an insurgent group under the leadership of Abidine Pati. Shortly after noon, an assistant village chief was killed by an improvised 10kg bomb made of gas cylinders as he was returning home from a meeting in Raman district in his truck. Another explosion from a roadside bomb struck an army patrol vehicle at about 1:40pm in Banning Sata district, leaving one soldier wounded. On Wednesday evening, three bombs were thrown at a pavilion in a public park in Rueso district of Narathiwat province. Twelve people were said to be injured. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation) (Click here to view HDFF’s Southern Thailand Incident Map)
These attacks came only days after Deputy Prime Minister Yutthasak Sasiprapa stated that security forces have the violence in the three southern border provinces under control. He further urged state agencies to allocate their spending according to the government’s national action plan against the southern insurgency and threatened budget cuts if targets weren’t met. However, his statements were rebuffed by several representatives of civil society. Gen Ekkachai Sriwilas, director of King Prajadhipok Institute’s Office of Peace and Governance, criticized that despite there being 600 research papers on the conflict, government agencies were not making use of them. Prasit Meksuwan, president of a people’s network, similarly noted how the 400 million baht spent on the south since 2004 have been infused into the wrong strategies. He stressed that the government must understand the ideology of the separatists and lend more support to community relations work to recapture support from locals. Also, Boonchuay Thongsri, an adviser to the Federation of Southern Teachers, has called for compensation payments for the families of teachers – primary targets of insurgents – that have fallen victim to the conflict in the south. (Bangkok Post)
Following a huge explosion and fire in an oil refinery situated in the densely populated Bangkok neighborhood of Bang Chak on Wednesday morning, in which no one was hurt, the Public Health Ministry considered plans for evacuation of a 4km radius on account of health hazards posed by the billowing smoke and toxic gases. For the time being though, no action beyond sending home students from four schools in the immediate vicinity had to be taken, as pollution was still below the safety standards, according to Worasart Apaipong, deputy director-general of the Pollution Control Department. Considering this was the second such incident within two years and the proximity of about 10,000 communities, environmentalists called for a relocation of the refinery to outside the city, which was ruled out by Energy Minister Arak Chonlatanon referencing the costs of such a move as about 100 billion baht. The authorities ordered a week’s closure of the whole facility. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
Among concerns that last year’s massive flooding of the country might be repeated, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra on Thursday stated that early warning systems will perform better this rainy season. According to her, alerts will be verified and analyzed communally before the public is notified through various means, including a new website called www.thaiwater.net. However, Science and Technology Minister Plodprasop Suraswadi spoke of missing links between the alert systems of agencies from different provinces, which could result in confusion of the public. Already on Tuesday the prime minister admitted to delays in the construction of water management measures in upstream areas, but said that she would personally supervise progress through the National Water Resources and Flood Policy Committee. Meanwhile, the King and his daughter Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn were planning to visit victims of last year’s flood on Saturday. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
The discovery of a new earthquake fault line in the province of Nakhon Nayok was made public on Thursday which, according to Geologist Lerdsin Raksasakulwong of the Mineral Resources Department’s Geology Office, could cause serious damage because of its proximity to Ayuttahya, Saraburi, Uthai Thani, Lop Buri and Bangkok. Alongside these news Songpop Polchan, president of the Geological Society of Thailand, announced a proposal for an update to the earthquake map to include tambon-level risk analysis and additional recommendations to be submitted to the government in two weeks. Among the recommendations are earthquake drills for schools and the provision of funding for strengthening old public buildings, such as hospitals and schools. (The Nation)
During the weekend, a Public Health inspector stated that a leptospirosis outbreak in the lower Northeast killed nine and infected 220 further people. He added that compared to last year, the disease has affected 20% more people in 2012. In further developments of contagions posing danger to humans, on Wednesday the Public Health Ministry issued a warning to health officials across Thailand to watch out for bird flu infections, following an outbreak in China. Meanwhile, 35 swine flu patients at a psychiatric hospital in Nakhon Ratchasima province were said to have recovered. (The Nation)
A group of 200 physicians of the Rural Doctor Society and Patient Network on Monday formed a rally in front of the Public Health Ministry to demand the release of three billion baht to buy vital medical equipment, such as X-ray machines and sterilizers, in rural areas. One of the protestors said they have not received funds for the acquisition of modern equipment in 30 years. A proposal from a previous government had allocated 9.8 billion Baht for this task, but was later cut back to less than a third of that sum. (The Nation)
On Wednesday evening, Myanmar forces arrested about 70 Thais from a village situated in unclearly marked territory believed to be on the Myanmar side bordering Kra Buri district in the province of Ranong for encroaching. Initial reports suggested a much larger number of arrests made. Apparently the villagers had been warned against settling in the area, where border crossings by both peoples are routinely made, several times. Deputy Prime Minister Yutthasak Sasiprapa announced on Friday that the villagers were safe and had not been charged. He believed the matter to be negotiable and stressed that the Thai government did not want conflict with Myanmar. He added that the situation should be resolved before the upcoming visit of the neighbouring country’s president Thein Sein to Thailand in two weeks. (Bangkok Post)
Army Chief General Prayuth Chanocha announced a dramatic measure to combat the inter-school violence that has run rampant in Bangkok. Involved students will be automatically drafted into the Army upon reaching serving age, he said. He also added that the policy would be temporal and subject to cancelation if the goal of preventing or reducing further inter-school violence was reached. (The Nation)
In a road accident on Tuesday in Surat Thani, eleven people died. They were en route in a bus traveling from Bangkok to Koh Pha Ngan when a tire blew, causing the vehicle to veer off-road, slamming into a pole and flipping on its side. An initial inquiry suggests the driver may have been speeding. The remaining twelve injured treated at a hospital were reported to be in stable condition. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
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