Summary
In politics, Suthep Thaugsuban continues to rile up protestors in a push to rid Thailand of what he calls “the Thaksin regime”, despite PM Yingluck Shinawatra’s proposal to resign and dissolve the House to stop the ongoing protests. Academics and foreign media have voiced concern over Suthep’s intention to set up a people’s council, made up of “decent people”, to run the country and push through his own reform agenda, which runs contrary to His Majesty The King’s advice.
In economy, consumer and investor confidence has been affected by the protests and airplane carriers have reported a decreased cabin factor from ASEAN countries and China. Several countries issued travel warnings after the outbreak of violence on Bangkok’s streets.
In security, after the ruling on Preah Vihear, Cambodia and Thailand still need to discuss the size of the area covered by the ruling. Peace talks with Barisan Revolusi Nasional but their demand for a “special administration area” has been rejected and will not be raised in the next round of talks. Alleged Runda Kumpulan Kecil militant group members were nabbed in Narathiwat. Bomb attacks and shooting continue in the South, wounding and killing a number of rangers, policemen, defense volunteers and civilians.
Politics
Suthep Thaugsuban, a former Democrat MP who resigned from Parliament to lead the street protests, continued his push to rid Thailand of what he and his supporters call “the Thaksin regime” even after successfully defeating the Pheu Thai’s attempt to press through a controversial amnesty bill. Protesters started to occupy government offices as a symbolic gesture denying the government’s legitimacy to run the country creating a split in the Democrat Party as leaders such as Abhisit Vejjajiva, Chuan Leekpai, and Korn Chatikavanij disagreeing with the occupation of state offices. Foreign media, initially supporting Suthep’s protests to prevent the amnesty bill, became increasingly wary once Suthep slowly started to lay out his anti-democratic vision of the future for Thailand with the Time magazine headlining its article “Thailand’s Democrat Party is Hilariously Misnamed”. On Tuesday, 3 December 2013, Suthep announced his plan at the occupied government complex on Chaeng Watthana Road to invoke Section 7 of the constitution, which leads to a royally appointed Prime Minister. This invocation should be done by a people’s council made up of “representatives from various professions chosen by people from all walks of life”. The people’s council would then subsequently select “decent people” with no affiliations to any political party to act as interim Prime Minister and Ministers. This legislative body would then amend laws and push through a reform agenda “to change Thailand for the better”, according to Suthep. Once the reform is complete the people’s council would be abolished and general elections held.
The idea of a royally appointed Prime Minister had already been criticized in 2006 by academics as a move that would destroy democracy and in a speech on 26 April 2006, his Majesty the King of Thailand in a speech to the Administrative and Supreme Courts’ judges during a separate Royal audience at Klai Kangwol Palace in Prachuap Khiri Khan said “But asking for a Royally appointed prime minister is undemocratic. It is, pardon me, a mess. It is irrational.”
The anti-government protest had reached its peak on the weekend of 30 November with clashes between protesters and the police as well as between protesters and red-shirts. According to the Public Health Ministry a total of 221 people were injured and three killed in the unrests over the weekend. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who had easily survived a no-confidence vote initiated by the Democrat Party days before, then announced that she would be willing to resign and dissolve the House for the protests to stop. Protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban instantly rejected the idea, stating, well knowing that future elections would very likely be won by Pheu Thai again, that dissolving the House would not be enough to defeat the “Thaksin regime”.
Foreign analysts view the conflict as the continuation of a class conflict between the old-elite and middle class Bangkokians and the growing political power of the farmers of the northeast. The New York Times quoted historian Nidhi Eoseewong saying, “What has been happening in Thailand is not about Thaksin or not even about conflicts among the elite — it’s socioeconomic change, enormous change that has taken place for the past two decades”, adding, “The old elite, including the established middle class, doesn’t want to tolerate their [peasant farmers of the northeast] participation.” Ant-government protesters also do not seem to make a secret out of their intention, with Saowanee Usanakornkul, 43, being quoted as saying “We are the middle class, we are educated and we know best. But the poor don’t know anything. They elect the people who give them money.” Red shirt leader Tida Tavonseth meanwhile argues that the oppositions wants to re-establish times when Thailand was run by a small group of elites, this time with independent organizations taking over the government. (New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, BBC, The Nation, Bangkok Post, USA Today)
Economy
Economy news for the past fortnight has much like politics and security been characterised by the demonstrations in Bangkok and elsewhere. Newspapers have been reporting that investors are wary of the situation, as memories of the long-drawn protests of the past make companies postpone transfers to the country. Regular political conflicts and an instable political environment are factors that could convince foreign investors to move their funds out of the country and instead pick one of the other strong Southeast Asian economies, such as neighbouring Malaysia. The greatest foreign investor group in Thailand is Europe accounting for 52 % of total foreign investment. The second largest group is Asia, with about 30.6 % of investments. Over the most violent weekend of protests so far, 1-2 December, major shopping complexes in Bangkok’s center such as Siam Center and Siam Paragon were closed – if this pattern repeats itself further into the high season for tourists it could entail significant losses for these enterprises. Consumer confidence also dropped over the past two weeks, hitting the lower levels in almost two years. (The Nation, Bangkok Post)
The protests have already taken their toll on the tourism industry as 23 countries have already issued warnings to their citizens about travelling to the Kingdom. The US authorities warn travelers not to go near government agencies whereas Brazil cautions against visiting main attractions such as the Grand Palace. As protests have been widely mediatised, a clear slowdown can be seen in the number of hotel bookings that are being made by foreign tourists. Although European and American tourists are unlikely to decrease significantly over the festive season, a significant number are expected to skip visiting Bangkok and instead head straight for other main tourist destinations such as Pattaya, Hua Hin and Koh Samet. ASEAN tourists are the most flexible group and the president of the Tourism Council of Thailand, Ms Piyaman Tejapaibul, already confirmed that a number of travel groups have changed their destinations either to other countries in the region or to other provinces in Thailand. Chinese tourists also seem to have changed their plans because of the protests. Thai Airways reported a decreased cabin factor for November as compared to last year and expect it to continue to decrease in December. (The Nation, Bangkok Post)
Another obstacle for tourism that has been debated is a new fee for tourists who wish to visit Koh Chang National Park. Adults are to be charged 200 baht each while the fee for children is 100 baht each. The local population has reacted in anger because only 15 days’ of notice were given until the enforcement of the new fee regulation. Many boat operators and other service providers had already negotiated prices with tour businesses for the high season that cannot be changed at the last minute, meaning a portion of them will have to cover the fees themselves. Nevertheless, the peak season should lead to increased revenue for business and the Thai economy in general as airports, hotels and main holiday destinations prepare for the massive inflow of tourists over Christmas and New Year’s holidays. This year, the number of international tourist arrivals is projected to reach 28.01 million. (The Nation, Bangkok Post)
Security
After the International Court of Justice’s ruling on the Preah Vihear, Thailand has expressed its plan of opposing the temple plan that Cambodia will submit to the World Heritage Committee (WHC). Cambodia initially submitted a temple management plan to WHC in 2011 but was later on suspended after Thailand complained about this with the fear of losing territory. Cambodia and Thailand still have to sit down and decide on the size of the area ruled by court. (Bangkok Post)
The Thai government has rejected the Barisan Revolusi Nasional’s demand for a “special administration area” as it is a sensitive and delicate issue. It will not be discussed during the next round of peace talks. The government has previously said that agreement to the BRN’s demands should be within the provisions of the constitution. More insurgent movements are beginning to take interest in participating in the peace talks. Wan Kadir, former leader of the Bersatu separatist group, said that the government should talk with groups who play a significant role in the southern conflict as these groups understand the internal affairs in the South. While pinpointing active insurgent groups in the South may be an arduous task, more success in the peace talks will more likely be achieved. (Bangkok Post)
Security officers raided a house in Rueso district in Narathiwat upon receiving a tip-off the members of the militant group Runda Kumpulan Kecil (RKK) are hiding there. Seven alleged RKK members were arrested, two of which have previously received warrants of arrest for criminal charges. The police recovered pistols, a handgun and its cartridges, military uniforms, sleeping bags, mobile phones, a motorcycle and survival kit items. The suspects are under the custody of the police for questioning. (Bangkok Post)
Bomb attacks and shooting continue in the South. In the past two weeks, Pattani bombings have wounded three paramilitary rangers providing security for teachers and two defense volunteers securing a school. A paramilitary ranger was also slain when gunmen from a pickup truck open fired, injuring the ranger’s two younger sisters. A villager was also killed in an ambush in Sai Buri district. In Narathiwat’s Rangae district, two policemen were killed and one was hurt on their way back to the police station after escorting teachers to a school within the district. In a separate incident, another paramilitary ranger was critically injured when a bomb went off while patrolling along a road in the district. A bomb explosion wounded four soldiers in Thepha district in Songkhla while patrolling along a local road and six defense volunteers were also injured when a bomb exploded while on duty at a security checkpoint, leaving one civilian injured, too. (Bangkok Post)
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