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Summary
The five-year ban on 111 former executives of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai party will come to an end this month, opening the door to a reshuffle of high-level staff in Thailand’s government. Amid the news that some of these figures are already unofficially working in Government House is the development of former red-shirt leader MP Jatuporn Prompan’s disqualification as an MP. Already though, there is speculation that Mr. Jatuporn may receive a posting in Prime Minster Yingluck’s cabinet. In economic news, the Thai baht fell for the fourth straight week, as investors offloaded holdings of Thai currency due to expectations that Europe’s debt crisis will slow growth worldwide. However, The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) reported that Thailand’s industries sentiment index for April went up from March. Industry confidence had been staying above the 100 level for three consecutive months, sending a signal that the production sector was likely to return to normal. On the security front, Deputy Prime Minister Yuthasak Sasiprapa visited Pattani province to clarify government policy with security authorities and local leaders, as well as to better coordinate work between agencies in the South. Meanwhile, the Southern Border Provinces Administration Center (SBPAC) has begun registering victims of violence in the South who are eligible for compensation from a 2-billion baht budget.
Politics
It is almost the end of May, thus the five-year ban of the 111 former Thai Rak Thai executives will end. While speculation about a possible cabinet reshuffle is still making the rounds, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra ruled out an imminent reshuffle as this would disturb government work to fight rising prices. 50-60 out of the 111 executives are expected to join the ranks of Pheu Thai, with trusted aides of Thaksin, Prommin Lertsuridej, and Phumtham Vechayachai, already unofficially taking up work at Government House. They are expected to become part of the prime minister’s staff. One of the persons mentioned to profit from an upcoming cabinet reshuffle, Jatuporn Prompan, meanwhile got stripped of his MP seat as the Constitutional Court ruled that his failure to vote in the general election disqualified him to be a MP. Jatuporn was detained in Bangkok Remand Prison on terrorism charges related to the 2010 red shirt protests and was unable to vote as his request for bail to participate in the July 3, 2011 general election was denied. After the general elections took place the Election Commission (EC) had originally certified Jatuporn’s status as a Pheu Thai MP only to revoke it later. In a 7-1 ruling the constitutional court now disqualifies Jatuporn as a lawmaker with Chat Cholaworn being the only judge to vote against a disqualification, arguing that due to the EC’s original endorsement of Jatuporn’s MP status, it had no longer the authority to revoke it. Jatuporn accepted the verdict stating, that he “never dreamed of getting justice from the Constitution Court”. Despite the court ruling disqualifying him as a member of parliament he still could be called up to a cabinet post though as PM Yingluck already announced that she thinks that “Mr Jatuporn is a capable person.” (Bangkok Post) (MCOT)(The Nation)
The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), popularly known as the “Red Shirts”, commemorated the second anniversary of the government crackdown of May 19, 2010 last weekend at Ratchaprasong intersection, with Thaksin’s video-linked speech again questioning the unity of Pheu Thai and UDD. Thaksin announced that “the time for arguments is over” and that it would be time to come together for reconciliation thus ultimately opening up the possibility “for me to come back and do good things for my brothers and sisters.” Thaksin’s speech was in contrast to the speeches of the UDD leadership which focused on finding the truth and bringing murderers to justice. UDD Chairwoman Tida Tawornseth acknowledged Thaksin’s view but also pointed out that “there must be truth and justice before reconciliation.” Confronted with dismay of red shirt supporters over Thaksin’s “order” to swallow their anger and frustration over social and legal injustices for the sake of national reconciliation, Ms. Tida later stated that she didn’t care what the people thought about Thaksin’s message and that he only wanted to bring about reconciliation to move the country forward and be able to solve problems, such as the high cost of living. Certain factions inside the UDD are dissatisfied though. Pansak Srithep, father of a 17-year-old boy who was killed on Ratchaprarop Road on May 15, 2010, said Thaksin’s comments showed that he loves himself more than the people. Vipar Daomanee, a former Thammasat University lecturer and a red-shirt member of the Turn Left group, followed the same line of argument stating, “His speech was self-centred. People didn’t clap hands for him. When Thaksin spoke, he didn’t consider the significance of the day and kept talking about himself.” He additionally argued that at the end of the day no one will be held accountable for the deaths of April and May of 2010 as Thaksin will provide immunity for the perpetrators. Therefore “ordinary reds must differentiate themselves from their leaders as the leaders have fallen behind them politically speaking, and tend to follow Thaksin. Progressive reds might have to campaign by themselves more without relying on leaders.” In a rare agreement with the Democrat Party, Giles Ungpakorn branded Thaksin an egomaniac who would not be interested in Democracy, in contradiction to many of his supporters, but only about himself coming back to Thailand. (Channel News Asia) (AsiaOne) (The Nation) (Bangkok Post)
After three days of debate the government’s Budget Bill for 2013 passed the first reading by the House of Representatives with a 274-1 vote and 177 absentees. PM Yingluck announced that “the government prepares the budget bill with the goal of laying a strong foundation for Thailand in preparation for the Asean Economic Community in 2015 and strengthening the national economy.” Opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva criticized the budget as the estimated economic growth of 5.5 to 6.5 percent would be based on “an illusion of many economic figures” and would not address concerns about living conditions and poverty. He additionally expressed concern regarding the government’s estimate that 2.1 trillion baht in revenue would be collected for the budget, fearing that they would fulfill a previous floated idea of raising the VAT which would increase living costs. (The Nation)
Economics
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra started the 2013 budget bill debate last Monday by defending the government’s planned spending that most of the budget would go to improve social and economic mechanisms and develop the country’s infrastructures in the long run. The premier stated that the 2013 budget bill would allocate 2.44 trillion baht for government spending and it would have larger deficit which would increase 20 billion baht compared to 2012 budget. The spending plan is projected to create 5.5 to 6.5 percent growth and 3.5 to 4.0 percent inflation. After three days of debate from May 21-23, the House of Representatives has passed this budget bill at the first reading stage. However, opposition chief whip and Democrat Party MP, Jurin Laksanavisit, said the government has only plans to create debts while its spending on post-flood rehabilitation was inefficient. The second reading is scheduled to take place in the next 45 days. (The Nation) (Bangkok Post)
The National Health Security Board (NHSB) will decide next month whether to reinstate the 30 baht co-payments scheme that was cancelled by the military-installed government in 2006. Now Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s government plans to relaunch the co-payment scheme, reasoning it would improve medical services provided by the National Health Security Office (NHSO). On the other hand, NHSO member, Nimitr Tien-udom, who represented a civic group, opposes the government’s plan to renew the co-payment scheme, which would end the current system of universal free health care coverage, as it would put financial burdens on the poor. (The Nation)
The Bank of Thailand assistant governor, Mrs. Pongpen Ruengvirayudh , stated on Tuesday, May 22, that foreign direct investment (FDI) is still flowing into Thailand even though foreign investors had turned from Thai shares to long-term bonds to limit investment risks. This had helped preventing the baht value from sharply dropping as it happened to other currencies in the region due to profit taking in Asian capital markets by foreign investors. According to Mrs. Pongpen, the current fluctuation in gold price is still not a cause of concern for the baht value. Mr. Songtham Pinto, director of the Macro-Economic Division at the central bank, announced on the same day that the first quarter’s 0.3 percent economic year-on-year growth, reported by the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) recently, was generated by the strong rise in domestic demand. Also The NESDB predicted that the Thai economy for the entire year would grow between 5.5 and 6.5 percent backed up by strong domestic demand and recovering manufacturing production. (Bangkok Post)
Reported by Bloomberg on May 25, the Thai baht fell for the fourth week and headed for its biggest weekly loss in 2012 after foreign funds decreased holdings of the nation’s equities due to the concern that Europe’s debt crisis will slow down global economic growth. The baht fell 0.9 percent this week, the most since the five-day period ended December 16, to 31.63 per dollar as of 8:50 a.m. in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg)
The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) reported on Thursday that Thailand’s industries sentiment index for April went up to 104.0, from 102.1 in March. Industry confidence had been staying above the 100 level for three consecutive months, sending a signal that the production sector was likely to return to normal. However, according to FTI, the confidence of the small and medium enterprises (SMEs) fell in April due to the rise in production costs, especially the minimum wage policy and high energy prices. Meanwhile, the industry sector is currently utilizing only 60 percent of its full capacity. FTI attributed this low capacity utilization to the impact of last year’s flood, slow growth in the US and the debt crisis in the euro-zone which had affected Thailand’s exports, and low purchasing power of Thai people and the labor shortage problem. The FTI added further that the production capacity utilization in the second half of the year would depend on the global and domestic economies, especially exports. (Bangkok Post)
Toshiba Carrier (Thailand) plans a two billion baht project to build a new plant in Bangkadi Industrial Park, Pathum Thani province, having confidence that there will be no flood this year. On Tuesday, May 22, the company’s managing director Akio Ozaka announced that Toshiba is moving ahead with its second air conditioner production base in Thailand. The production at this new factory is expected to start in February 2013 which would make Thailand the largest air conditioner production base of Toshiba Group. (Bangkok Post)
Public transport operators will have to reduce fares if the retail price of diesel falls below 30 baht per liter, Deputy Transport Minister Chadchart Sittiphan stated last Friday, May 18. Since the committee previously allowed public transport operators to increase fares when the diesel price rose, the decrease in fares this time would reflect the actual fuel cost while being fair to the consumers. As for the CNG-fuelled busses, the fares will remain unchanged as the National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) agreed to freeze the CNG price for three months, from May 16 to Aug 15. The fares will be raised only when the CNG price rise above 9.50 baht per kilogram. (Bangkok Post)
The Thai government made government-to-government agreements with Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Indonesia, expecting that it will export 3 million tons of rice to the three partners this year. However, the contract price is lower than the market and Thai government will have to bear the losses. Commerce Minister Boonsong Teriyaphirom stated on May 15 after signing the MOU with Bangladesh, the agreements would allow Thailand to achieve this year’s rice export target of 9 million tons. On the other hand, rice exporters are doubtful of the government’s ability to meet the target promised by the Commerce Minister. The honorary president of Thai Rice Exporters Association, Chookiat Ophaswongse, said the only possibility for Thai government to sell the rice was to reduce the price to match competitors. According to the Thai Rice Exporters Association’s statistics, India is expected to continue on the lead and exports its rice aggressively while Thailand can hardly catch up due to the much higher prices. Mr. Chookiat warned that it is dangerous for the rice industry and would end free trade for the sector if the government becomes a large rice exporter itself, because with low transparency, companies that would remain are those with good connections and willingness to pay under the table. (The Nation) (Bangkok Post)
Following the pineapple farmers’ protest in March, this week, on Wednesday, May 23, more than 500 pineapple farmers blocked Lampang-Phayao road demanding the government to buy their crops at four baht a kilogram. Northern farmers were upset that their pineapples began to spoil because there were no vehicles to deliver the fruits to factories in Prachuap Kiri Khan and other factories in the South. (Bangkok Post)
Security
On Tuesday, Deputy Prime Minister Yuthasak Sasiprapa traveled to Yarang district of Pattani province to meet with local security authorities and Army Chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha at the Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC) forward command in Sirindhorn Camp. The purpose of the Mr. Yuthasak’s visit was clarify the government’s policies 2012-2013 and better coordinate the work of all agencies working in the South. In attendance were chiefs of the army’s 4th Army Area Command, heads of local military, police and administrative representatives, and officers from the border patrol police and the Southern Border Provinces Administration Center (SBPAC). Prior to his visit, Gen Prayuth told reporters that there will be a budget increase for the Royal Thai Armed Forces to compensate for the current shortfalls in maintaining 200,000 soldiers. (Bernama) (Pattaya Mail)
As part of the government’s approach to improve the economic situation in the South and foster reconciliation, the Southern Border Provinces Administration Center (SBPAC) began registering victims of violence for compensation in the form of “remedial actions”. These remedial actions refer “physical, emotional, and spiritual rehabilitation”. The recently approved 2-billion baht budget will also support creating job opportunities and improving security measures, as well as provide fact-finding and legal assistance for victims of violence. (The Nation)
In an apparent bid to fight allegations of drug trafficking, Na Kham Mwe, rebel leader of the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), has ordered the placement of cutouts with anti-drug messages in villages across DKBA-controlled territory along the Thai-Myanmar border, running parallel with Tak province down to Sangklaburi district. The cutouts have messages written in Burmese and Karen, prohibiting the production and use of drugs, warning the penalty for violators could be death. Reports indicate that the cutouts are visible to Thai residents on the Thai side of the border. Also, the Karen rebel leader is vowing to arrest two senior Thai policemen who are suspected of fleeing to Myanmar after being implicated in a 2-million baht robbery in Singburi. However, such moves have not changed the Thai government’s stance on Na Kham Mwe, as he still considered the fifth most wanted drug lord in Thailand. (Bangkok Post)
On Thursday, border patrol police discovered 190 kilograms of compressed marijuana hidden in bushes along the bank of the Mekong River in Tha Uten district in Nakhon Phanom province. Authorities were alerted by fishermen who discovered the parcels around 5:30am. Pol Maj Tawee told reporters that drug smugglers often cross the river at night from Laos and surreptitiously leave the drugs in a hiding spot. Afterward, they return to Laos and call the buyers on the Thai side to inform them where the drugs are located. Methods like these make it difficult to catch those involved. Compressed dried marijuana sells for 5,000 baht per kilogram along the border and up to 30,000 baht per kilogram in the inner provinces. (Bangkok Post)
Thailand’s Justice Ministry is launching a “white prison” campaign to make prisons drug-free nationwide. At present, only five of 143 prisons are considered “white,” according to Corrections Department chief Suchart Wong-anantchai. The move comes after multiple arrests and drug seizures related to drug sales to or coordinated by drug inmates over the last week, as well as multiple raids on Narathiwat prison, called by the provincial police chief as “the biggest drug network”, earlier this month. Pol Col Suchart said budget and personnel constraints were major obstacles in the department’s suppression operations against illicit drugs and the smuggling of prohibited items into the prisons. (Bangkok Post)
The US National Institute of Health (NIH) has determined that 36 percent of malaria drugs in Southeast Asia are counterfeit, based on a review of surveys and published literature. Many of the drugs that are being faked or poorly manufactured are artemisin derivatives, the study said. This is especially worrisome as artemisinins are the frontline treatment for malaria, replacing drugs to which the malaria parasite has become resistant. The implied consequences are severe, as it suggests both poor quality control of medicines and criminal production. Furthermore, a recently-published study from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington found that an artemisin-resistant strain of malaria, first spotted in Cambodia in 2006, has migrated to the Thai-Myanmar border and surged in infections. (Phuket News)
The Thai Navy has decided to scrap plans to purchase six aging German-made submarines, citing heavy criticism and political intervention. The Navy’s 7-billion baht proposal to acquire the second hand submarines had originally been submitted under the Aphisit administration, but was never approved. However, support under the Yingluck government has also been lackluster, much to the Navy’s frustration, leading to the cancellation of the plan. Instead, the Navy is considering plans to train Thai naval officers in submarines in China as well as undertake studies of current submarines in commission in South Korea, Singapore, and Europe. Thailand’s navy chief, Surasak Roonroengrom, cites cost as the most important overarching factor. He said the Navy simply cannot afford new submarines, as each one could cost 10-20 billion baht, while the Navy has only a budget of 35 billion baht for the current fiscal year. (Bangkok Post)
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