Thai children aim at armored vehicle-mounted rifle as a soldier watches on National Children's Day in Southern Thailand
Summary
A relatively peaceful week, flood related protests and demonstrations continue and former PM Thaksin Shinawatra remained the pinnacle of the news agenda until a robbery at the permanent-secretary for transport home took place. Economic conditions remain as
stable as possible, with both analysts and consumers wary and hopeful for the future. Recovery from the floods is on track for next year and economic forecasters are predicting that the central bank may cut interest rates once again. Cooperation between regional countries are being finalized for the upcoming year, children soldiers working against the Southern insurgency are investigated and a man was sentenced to jail for 20 years after violating the lese majeste law.
Politics
Residents in both Pathum Thani and Nonthaburi clashed with authorities and blocked roads demanding to increase the openings of the sluice gates to 1 meter wide in order to drain the water from their provinces more quickly. When Nonthaburi Governor Wichien Phutthiwinyu and Flood Relief Operations Centre (FROC) spokesman Police General Pongsapat Pongcharoen announced the gates would be further opened up, Bangkok Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra was cited to have said, “It’s impossible for the BMA to open it one-meter wide because it would cause overflows and flood Bangkok homes.” The governor denied having said this statement. PM Yingluck Shinawatra pleaded to Bangkok residents to let some floodwaters into the area saying, “Holding off water is never a solution. Some areas have to let water flow past.” The flood death toll has risen to over 610 people. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
The Government officially announced that Thaksin Shinawatra would not be included in this year’s royal amnesty allowing the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) to cancel their planned mass rally but threatened to continue if the government revives its plans to bring Thaksin back. In a press conference in South Korea, Thaksin announced himself that he would not come back to Thailand until reconciliation was accomplished. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawtra renewed her commitment to uphold campaign promises all the while assuring the public that everything will be in line with the rule of law. Deputy PM Chalerm Yubamrung stated that he will continue to push for an amnesty once the right moment arrives as this was a major Pheu Thai campaign promise. “We won a majority of 265 seats. I consider this a referendum on the issue,” Chalerm added. Prior to Thaksin’s return, Chalerm will focus on a drug suppression campaign as well as finally clarifying the circumstances of the 91 deaths associated with the crack-down on red-shirt protesters last year. Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul declared in an interview given in Abu Dhabi that Thaksin will not be in Dubai for much longer and believes he will come home sooner rather than later. When asked if he feared resistance from the PAD, Surapong answered, “No. How many people does the PAD have? How many [no-votes] did the movement get in the general election? (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
The Permanent-Secretary for Transport, Supoj Saplom, home was robbed of a reported 5 million baht on November 12th. The investigation has unveiled a variety of incongruent information as seven suspects are in custody and the police have seized 16 million baht so far. The supposed ringleader of the robbers is still at large and suspected to have 100 million baht with him. Although Supoj initially claimed that only 5 million baht was stolen from his home, the robbers maintained to have seen up to 1 billion baht at the house. Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yubamrung announced at a House of Representatives meeting that the robbed money “was obtained from corruption involving extended parts of the subway lines, such as the Red Line and the Yellow Line. I once spoke in Parliament about the corruption but people protested against me for making an ‘untrue accusation”. Chalerm mandated that the police now work to trace the sources of the bribes. Additionally, former transport minister Sophon Saram from the Bhum Jai Thai Party, which is now in opposition, was accused of having accepted even more money than permanent secretary Supoj, which he instantly denied and threatened a possible lawsuit for defamation. (The Nation) (Bangkok Post)
Economics
Economic uncertainty in the United States and Europe are predicted to continue as the biggest threat to the Thai economy in the future as officials and the Bank of Thailand are claiming flooding will have only a temporary impact on businesses and households. Experts believe that increasing credit for debt-ridden members and boosting capital for banks will not support a long-term solution. Any further measures to cut spending will reduce import demand from Asia, having grave affects on Thailand. As the US faces problems with the housing and labor markets and the US Congress remains unable to agree on a fiscal deficit reduction, Thailand’s confidence that Americans can resolve their economic problems diminishes. However, Thai officials maintain that there is no need to worry as Thailand maintains high foreign reserves and sound economic fundamentals.
As for flood recovery, the central bank expects the industrial sector to be recovered by April and June 2012 when imports of new machines and relocation of equipment allows for the resumption of normal business. Domestic consumption and production, especially of automobiles, are expected to grow significantly next quarter. Tourism is also expected to pick up within one to two months of the water waning. There is hope that the impact on the farm sector will also be slight enough to bounce back. Nonperforming loans are expected to increase 3-3.5% or a record 10-billion – 35 billion baht but only on a temporary basis. “Of all 546 corporate customers affected by the flood in early November, 233 asked for bank’s assistance in debt restructuring,” stated Suvarn Tansathit, a senior executive vice-president of Bangkok Bank. Banks capital will be tested banks as loans are likely to increase volatility in asset quality,
The most current discussion is whether or not the central bank should cut interest rates. Analysts believe the Monetary Policy Committee will cut the rates by 0.25 to 0.50% at its meeting on November 30th in order to support businesses and households seeking funds to restore their property. Inflation, one of Thailand’s biggest concerns, is predicted to slow down next year if global demand for oil and commodities reduce in the principal consumer nations. “Inflation expectations now are stable and the central bank will work to maintain business and consumer confidence” claimed Prasarn Trairatvorakul, the Bank of Thailand governor. However, recent market expectations for a rate cut have caused bond yields to decline. Lower inflation would support an interest rate cut, but analysts predict it will depend on how successful rehabilitation spending takes place. The central bank needs to account for the weak world economy in addition to other factors and not be blinded by inflationary pressure. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
The success thus far of The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is being reported upon according its previously set goals. The original plan calls for four pillars: a single market and production base, opportunities to be competitive, balanced economic development and a region fully integrated into the global economy. To date, although tariffs have been removed under the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement, non-tariff barriers (NTBs) continue to block intra-regional trade. The Asia-Pacific Trade and Investment Report 2011 confirmed that at least 90% of trade costs came from NTBs. Increasing trade will reduce transaction costs, enhance competitiveness, improve customs clearances and releases and streamline barriers. The lack of development of infrastructure has also impeded the AEC. Sources state human and equitable developments are sorely needed. Overall investment should be improved in addition to institutions, education and innovation. Analysts claim that by revising basic fundamentals, emergencies such as the flooding will be more easily mitigated as well as increasing the success of regional integration. (MenaFN)
Security
With the closing of the ASEAN summit, leaders of Japan and South East Asian nations including Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam agreed to outline new areas of collaboration for next year. Commitment to the agreed upon action plan between the two governing bodies in 2009 was renewed, supported by plans for Japan to host the Japan-Mekong summit in 2012. Efforts will be made to increase cooperation in supporting disaster management, environmental protection, food security and issues related to child health and infectious diseases. Relationships with outside nations were discussed as well, as all countries agreed North Korea must abandon all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs and that there is a strong need to support universal international law applicable to the South China Sea. Japan noted its grave condolences for the flooding throughout Thailand and the Mekong nation leaders conveyed appreciation for Japan’s support. (Mainichi News)
New reports are investigating the use of child and teen soldiers to assist in the fight against the insurgency in Southern Thailand. Analysts claim that although teenagers are not forced, drugged or killed to participate, many of them willingly carry guns and fill the ranks in Thai state-funded militias. Boys as young as 14 have been found patrolling with guns or guarding checkpoints against insurgents. Other jobs handed out to young soldiers include running, spying on suspicious outsiders or making tea for adult patrolmen. Non for profits that study these children have revealed that their placement in the insurgency is largely ignored on an international scale due to their dissimilarity with child soldiers in highly politicized examples, such as in Burma or Liberia. Representatives from Justice for Peace Foundation, a Thai non-profit watchdog group claimed “They understand it as part of security, securing their family. When we go to the villages and ask to take photos, they’re quite proud to take their guns out and show us.” A large strategy of the insurgency is targeting schools, leading both Muslim and Buddhist students to attend schools comparable to army-ridden fortresses. A principal claimed roughly 30% of his teachers bring guns to school and the children are misinformed of the danger associated with guns. Of the 19 villages Justice for Peace examined, they assert that 13 villages held minors formally or informally connected to state-operated defense network known as “Chor Ror Bor.” Due to their “unforced” position, questions have been raised if these boys fall under the title of child soldiers. The UN affirms, “Anyone under 18, including cooks, porters, messengers and anyone accompanying an armed group” can be labeled as a child soldier. Others claim even if assistance to militias isn’t demanded, it still places these children in grave danger. The Justice for Peace Foundation is pushing for a more severe law that prohibits any actions that fall in line with UN definition of child soldiers. (Global Post). This week, three monks, three policemen and three civilians were injured in Pattani. A vegetable trader was injured in a drive-by shooting in Narathiwat and in Yala, two power poles on a local road collapsed due to explosives but no one was injured. (Bangkok Post)
Many are outraged by the Thai government’s use of the lese majeste law as 61-year-old Ampon Tangnoppakul was sentenced to 20 years of jail this week. The defendant was not able to hear his sentence in person due to the flooding at the Bangkok Remand Prison where he was being held. Ampon was found guilty on four charges related to Article 112 of the Thai Criminal Code, insulting the monarchy and violating the 2007 Computer Act affecting national security. He was accused of sending text messages to Somkiat Krongwattanasuk, a private secretary to former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, with wording which was considered insulting the monarchy. The text messages allegedly contained crude language, slandered the Thai queen and offended the honor of the monarchy. The messages are unable to be made public as anyone who repeats the messages are subject to criminal prosecution. Ampon claimed to be innocent, stating that he did not know to send SMS messages and that the number that sent the message to Somkiat was not his number. Another source noted that Ampon claimed his mobile phone was broken and being fixed at a shop in the Imperial Department Store. The prosecution claimed that the International Mobile Equipment Identity (IMEI) number of the cell phone that sent the messages to Somkiat belonged to Ampon, making him responsible. Ampon Tangnoppakul has been sentenced to the longest period in prison to date for alleged violations of Article 112 and the 2007 Computer Crimes Act. The Asian Human Rights Commission claims “given the weak nature of the evidence deployed against him, and the extenuating circumstances of health and age, this case indicates that the Thai judiciary has become a place where justice is foreclosed and injustice flourishes.” Experts maintain that further stress being laid upon convicting alleged anti-monarchy content is deepening human rights injustices in Thailand. (Human Rights Asia) (MCOT)
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