Image source: Bangkok Post
Summary
In politics, Thailand’s snap election were held without any major outbreaks of violence on 2 February but protesters were successful in blocking enough polling stations and thus increased the likeliness that the election might be annulled by the constitutional court. The Democrat party has already petitioned the court to annul the national election despite successful polling at 83,669 out of 93,952 stations.
In economy, the stalemate situation caused by the political unrest in Thailand’s capital continues and reports reverberate on the negative effects and bleak outlook for national growth in 2014. Despite the political instability, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) decided to keep the policy interest rate level while closely monitoring any new developments. Increasingly however, outside observers worry that the Thai economy might find it difficult to repeat its usual act of ‘bouncing back’ again to economic growth and investor interest.
In security, security incidents surrounding the anti-government protests in Bangkok have been highly mediatised and have drawn international attention. The protests have led 40 countries to issue travel warnings to Thailand although during protests, a resident of Bangkok would still have been far more likely to get injured in a traffic accident than in an incident related to protests. The conflict in Southern Thailand has continued but as a month, January 2014 had less casualties than in a year.
Politics
Thailand’s snap election were held without any major outbreaks of violence on 2 February but protesters were successful in blocking enough polling stations and thus increased the likeliness that the election might be annulled by the constitutional court. The Democrat party has already petitioned the court to annul the national election despite successful polling at 83,669 out of 93,952 stations. In Bangkok and some southern districts, traditionally Democrat party strongholds, protesters prevented the delivery of ballot papers, pressured officials not to report to duty or physically prevented people from voting. Chuvit Kamolvisit, a charismatic independent candidate and former massage parlor owner previously accused Suthep and his supporters of falsely characterizing their struggle as an anti-corruption fight arguing it was nothing more than “a game of power”, got into a brawl with protestors trying to prevent him from voting. He commented afterwards that “Thai society has to learn that to get rights, freedom, liberty, you need to fight. But the fight should take place within the democratic system, not on the street.” Paul Chamber, director of research at the Institute of Southeast Asian Affairs at Chiang Mai University, expects the constitutional court to annul the result which will “see Thailand descend into more distrust and conflict” as Pheu Thai supporters might come out to protest the court’s decision.
Protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban announced right after the elections that two protest sites will be closed to consolidate the crowds at the remaining five locations. As has been predicted by analysts such as the New York-based Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy company, before the election, a “judicial intervention” remains the most likely way the government will be removed from power but Pichit Tamool, a red shirt leader from Chiang Mai, has already announced that “If we find that the elites are taking the law into their own hands, we will take the law into our hands … the situation in Bangkok would be pretty dire.” It thus comes as no surprise that the International Crisis Group (ICG) stated in a recent report that “There is no clear way out,” as both sides of the conflict remain adamant to counter any development with street protests.
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra meanwhile faces additional pressure from the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC), which will investigate corruption charges related to the rice subsidy program. Vicha Mahakhun of the National Anti-Corruption Commission said at a news conference, “Those who oversaw the scheme knew there were losses but did not put a stop to it.” These charges could theoretically lead to Yingluck’s impeachment.
(Associated Press, Bangkok Post, Bloomberg, Reuters, Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian, The Wall Street Journal, Washington Post)
Economy
The stalemate situation caused by the political unrest in Thailand’s capital continues and reports reverberate on the negative effects and bleak outlook for national growth in 2014. Despite the political instability, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) decided to keep the policy interest rate level while closely monitoring any new developments. Increasingly however, outside observers worry that the Thai economy might find it difficult to repeat its usual act of ‘bouncing back’ again to economic growth and investor interest – several prominent analysts are warning Thai businesses that neighbouring economies, such as Malaysia, have proven more stable and suited to foreign investment. Nevertheless the Thai stock market – the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) – went against the flow following the national elections last Sunday and gave he stock index the best performance in Asia on Monday. The lack of violence surrounding the elections, as compared to expectations, led investors to buy Thai stocks and push the SET forward by 1.1 %. This does not however change the view of private groups, such as the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking, to expect a large loss in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014 – setting their estimate at a 240 billion baht loss. The rating agency Moody’s has also lowered their forecast for the Thai economy from a 5.2 per cent growth in 2014 to a meager 3.2 per cent. (Thailand National News Bureau, New York Times, Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, The Nation)
Most affected by the crisis are perhaps the actors in the important tourism sector, who have suffered harsh losses from reduced visitors – notably over the Chinese New Year festivities. China issued warnings to citizens to reconsider non-essential trips to Thailand – something that has led between 500,000 to 1 million tourists to cancel their trips. Hotels in popular areas in Bangkok, Pattaya and Hua Hin have reported only 30 per cent occupancy although February is still considered the high season for tourists in Thailand. The Tourism Council stated that tourist arrivals would report a decline by 7.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2014 compared to previous years. The caretaker government has been urged to remove the Emergency Decee in order to restore confidence among tourism agencies. (Bloomberg Businessweek, Bernama.com)
Instead of focusing on the negative situation within Thailand, Thai businesses have instead been urged to expand their investments in Myanmar – a country whose economy is expanding rapidly since the removal of blockades from the United States and the European Union. Key sectors for Thai investment is recommended as service, health, beauty, insurance, infrastructure and construction according to the Thai Ambassdor to Myanmar, H.E. Pisanu Suvanajata. (Bangkok Post, Thailand Business News)
Security
At Laksi intersection near Ladprao on Saturday afternoon, crossfire was encountered between pro-election groups and anti-government protestors, injuring six people. Three of the 21 suspects have been identified, and police continue to search for a cash delivery van that was captured on video and assumed to have carried weapons to the scene. At the Laksi clash, 71-year-old Ar-kaew Saelew was visiting his daughter when he was shot and paralyzed from the neck down. An image of his body in the streets when viral, stirring accusations from both sides of the shooting and spreading rumors he might have been a hired mercenary. His family strongly argues he was an innocent civilian without any tie to the political situation.
The rumor of mercenaries stem from anti-government protestors (including protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban) who claimed hired men from Cambodia were bearing arms against them or arriving at polling stations without IDs, but the Internal Security Operations Command rejected this rumor. Army Chief Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha did not deny armed foreigners could easily sneak across the border, but he stated the military has checked for movements at the border areas for the past few months and found no evidence to support the claim. Cambodian Foreign Ministry has also argued that Cambodians were in Thailand for work and business.
The spats of violence during the protests have shown confrontation the safety of Yingluck Shinawatra. Caretaker Deputy Prime Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul demanded better protection for Ms. Shinawatra, which the military found to be an offensive statement. The army argued they were working closely with other security units and she was already assigned soldiers to protect her. The army showed strong disapproval of Mr. Surapong for making demands of them through the media.
Protesters are also coming from the western provinces. One group of rice farmers established a blockade at the Wang Manao instersection in Ratchaburi’s Pak Tho district to demand for their long overdue payments from the rice-pledging scheme. Another group of 500 camped on Asian Highway 117 in Phichit’s Bung Narang district. Protest leader of Tambon Tai Nam Administration Organization, Prakasit Jamjumrus, alongside a group of 200 farmers are submitting a royal petition in Bangkok with a list of 1,000 names. They state they are not politically-motivated, but continue to send demonstrators to the Commerce Ministry. Frustration stems from farmers unable to pay for their farming costs without their due payments from the caretaker government. They also demand help with creditors who may threaten to take away their equipment.
The past two weeks in Southern Thailand has witnessed 22 deaths and 10 injuries. There were 14 casualties from bombings, and 13 casualties from gunshots, including 4 children. One of the most recent attacks involved a family of five who returned home from prayer at their local mosque. In front of their home, four gunmen emerged from the nearby trees and opened fire. The parents were injured but the three young boys of ages 9, 5, and 3, were pronounced dead at the hospital. This incident has raised a lot of concern in local communities about the safety of innocent children and elderly in the deep South.
January Security Report for Southern Thailand – Read it here!
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