HDFF Bi-Weekly Thailand Review 27/10 – 08/11
Top executives of Thailand’s three major mobile phone operators, from left, Dtac CEO Jon Eddy Abdullah; Advanced Info Service (AIS) vice chairman Somprasong Boonyachai; and True CEO Suphachai Chearavanont, pose for a photo prior to the 3G spectrum auction at the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission in Bangkok. (Photo by Apichit Jinakul)
Summary
As the first Pitak Siam rally against the current government was such a big success for its organizers, Gen Boonlert Kaewprasit already announced a fresh, and bigger, rally at the end of the November. Jarupong Ruangsuwan, new Interior Minister after the latest cabinet reshuffle, has now also been elected new Pheu Thai party leader. Former Prime Minister and opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva was stripped of his military rank by a panel set up by the Defence Ministry.
The stock exchange saw negative development as the SET moved lower and settled just below 1,300. The Vice President of Myanmar, Mr. Nyan Tan and Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra met in Bangkok on 8 November to discuss the joint development plan for the Dawei project.
Thailand’s Deep South saw again a lot of violence the last two weeks, including attacks on Muslim Eid day and the assassination, probably out of political motives, of Songkhla Mayor Peera Tantiseranee.
Politics
Although no exact numbers are known, organizers speak from 20,000 while police estimated around 6,000 participants, the rally by Pitak Siam (Protect Siam) was nonetheless rated as a surprise success by media outlets. Buoyed by the big turn-out main organizer, Gen Boonlert Kaewprasit already announced a fresh, and bigger, rally at the end of the November. The gathering attracted various anti-government supporters with most main speakers being People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) sympathizers. Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yubamrung shrugged off the big turn-out as he was convinced they had no grounds to topple the government. He supported his claim by stating that, “Moreover, the army chief has distanced himself from the campaign. Once the military turns its back on you, that’s the end of the story”. Former senator Ruangkrai Leekitwattana meanwhile petitioned the Constitution Court to rule whether an anti-government protest was allowed to call for a military coup. Otherwise, he argued, the court had to order an end to the unconstitutional protests and the leaders had to be arrested for treason under Article 113 of the Criminal Code. While analysts are yet undecided if street protest will ultimately return to Thailand, they agree that the increased attention towards Thaksin Shinawatra was due to Yingluck Shinawatra’s popularity, among both Pheu Thai supporters as well as, apparently, the army. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political analyst at Chulalongkorn University, warned though that if Pheu Thai continues their strategy of systematically promoting Thaksin sympathizers and thereby replacing his opponents “a backlash like in 2006 is possible”. (Reuters) (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
Jarupong Ruangsuwan, new Interior Minister after the latest cabinet reshuffle, has now also been elected new Pheu Thai party leader. He was the sole nominee. The reshuffle furthermore included six former Thai Rak Thai party members, prompting Kan Yuenyong, director of Siam Intelligence Unit, a private think tank in Bangkok, to state that, “We are seeing a Thaksin renaissance, with his top people being installed”. The new executive board under Pheu Thai Party secretary-general Phumtham Wechayachai was quick to announce that they will make a fresh bid to rewrite the constitution. The last attempt was halted on July 13 after opponents petitioned the Constitution Court to rule if changes to section 291 were part of a plan to overthrow the monarchy. Phumtham stated that the party restructuring was intended to support an increase in party membership, an important move to attract more support for the charter change bid.
Government and opposition have meanwhile agreed that the no-confidence debate will take place on 25-26 November. It is expected that Commerce Minister Boonsong Teriyapirom will play an important role in the debate as he will have to defend the governments rice pledging scheme on behalf of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. (Bangkok Post)
Former Prime Minister and opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva was stripped of his military rank by a panel set up by the Defence Ministry. The decision was based on the argument that Abhisit used a falsified military personnel registration document to apply for a job as Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy lecturer. The committee chaired by Deputy Permanent Secretary for defence Gen Prasobchai Kasemsant stated that Mr. Abhisit was given two weeks to clarify the allegations but did not provide any statement.
Exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra meanwhile cut his trip to Myanmar short after his son Panthongtae posted on Facebook that an assassination attempt on his father was planned in Tachilek, a town near the Thai border. While his claim was supported by Deputy Premier Chalerm Yoobamrung, Defence Minister ACM Sukampol Suwannathat called the reports groundless. Panthongtae had argued that an assassination plot was in process after a Shan man was arrested in Tachilek with an assortment of war weapons. Sukumpol was not convinced though and announced that the two incidents would not be related. The Bangkok Post speculated that the assassination plot was fabricated to give Thaksin an excuse not to visit Tachilek as this would have increased pressure on the government to arrest him. Bangkok Post writers Wassana Nanuam & Aekarach Sattaburuth did not provide specific sources for their claims though or state how Thaksin’s presence in Tachilek would have increased pressure on the government to arrest him as Thaksin stayed and met red shirt supporters previously in countries neighboring Thailand.
In Naypyitaw, the capitol of Myanmar, Police Maj. Min Kyaw Thu and in Shan state, where Tachilek is located, an official of the state army were in agreement that the discovery of the war weapons was related to the thriving drug trade and not to Mr. Thaksin. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation) (The Wall Street Journal)
Economics
The stock exchange saw negative development as the SET moved lower and settled just below 1,300. Analysts are predicting continuing negative trends as the global forecast for the Asian markets is negative. The Economic and Business Forecasting Centre of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce predicts that 2013 will see the lowest growth in GDP in three years at only 4.5 %. Analysts say Government spending schemes in combination with the European debt crisis and US deficit concerns are holding down growth. (Bangkok Post, www.nasdaq.com)
After the controversial 3G auction held by the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) on 16 October, three separate investigations are now looking in to allegations of price collusion and violation of the procurement law. The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC), the Administrative Court as well as an internal NBTC panel are all examining the NBTC endorsement of the auction. However, only the latter two have the authority to suspend or scrap the auction. If this were to happen, the NBTC may have to reimburse the bidders’ auction fees plus interest. The controversy does not however stop RS PIc, the country’s second-largest entertainment company, from expanding investments, encouraged by the launch of 2.1-gigahertz 3G, in digital music-streaming together with French music-streaming company Deezer. (Bangkok Post)
The Vice President of Myanmar, Mr. Nyan Tan and Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra met in Bangkok on 8 November to discuss the joint development plan for the Dawei project. The project plans to construct a deep-sea port in eastern Myanmar, set up a Special Economic Zone (SEZ) and develop infrastructure. Six subcommittees were established and infrastructure investment is expected to start next April. The prioritized targets include the construction of a 132-kilometre road from the Thai border to Dawei, a power plant and the port itself. This first phase is expected cost 130 billion baht. Thailand and Myanmar have also agreed to eliminate tariff and non-tariff barriers with the goal of tripling bilateral trade by 2015. (The Nation, Bangkok Post)
The Government’s rice-pledging scheme will come under further scrutiny as the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) is to examine the proportion of small-scale vs. large-scale farmers who are profiting from the scheme. Economists have criticized the scheme, for not providing support to farmers in need but rather mainly profits 1 million well-off farm households. Also, high pledging prices are said to have made Thai rice uncompetitive in the global market while some analysts warn Government spending could push Thailand’s debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 per cent. Despite the criticism, Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong has defended the program stating that it is more in tune with market forces than the previous government’s crop-insurance plan. (Bangkok Post, The Nation)
The 16th Asian-European Summit took place this week in Vientiane, Laos. Asian and European finance ministers both pledged to increase trade and investments between the regions and to avoid protectionist measures. On the opposite bank of the Mekong River in Nong Khai, Thailand, protests were simultaneously under way against the recent approval by the Lao government of the construction of a US$3.5 billion dam in Xayaburi on the Mekong River. Environmentalist and downstream riverside communities claim the impact will be significant on fish migration and flow of sediments. The hydro-electrical plant is expected to be operational by 2019 and will export 90 % of its electricity to Thailand. (Bangkok Post)
Security
Thailand’s Deep South saw again a lot of violence the last two weeks. During the Muslim Eid festival at the end of October two Narathiwat residents were shot in separate attacks. Furthermore two soldiers were wounded in Pattani’s Non Chick district on 27th October. On the same day 16 people were injured caused by a grenade being thrown into a night food shop in Sai Buri District, Pattani. Also in Pattani, Yarang district, an Islamic religious teacher was shot dead on Tuesday morning, 30th October. In Yala’s Muang district, on Wednesday, 30th October, a grenade, probably aimed at the nearby Border Patrol Police 443 Base, landed in a children’s home but fortunately did not explode. On Saturday night, 3rd November, three people were killed and more than ten were wounded in two separate motorcycle and car bomb explosions in Narathiwat. As a reaction to this, the police chief of Yala province ordered to tighten the security. On 4th November, early Sunday morning, a militant was killed by government forces in a firefight in Songkhla’s Saba Yoi district. On the same day, three people were killed and a teacher injured in three separate attacks in the Deep South. (Bangkok Post)
On Wednesday night, 7th November, the Mayor of Songkhla Municipality, Peera Tantiseranee, was assassinated by two men riding on a pick-up truck. As there were recent problems in his administration, an investigation turned up evidence that hint local politics might be the reason for the killing. A suspicious pick-up truck, smuggled from Malaysia, and a magazine, loaded with 14 bullets, and two cellphones in a Toyota Altis sedan, were found in a parking lot, which was searched in relation to the assassination. The parking lot belongs to a local radio station owned by Peera’s political rival, Kitti Chuchuay whose apartment was also searched. (Bangkok Post, The Nation)
Primeminister Yinluck Shinawatra has decided that she will not assign the deputy prime minister to the role of overseeing national security. She, herself, will take charge of national security policies. One of the most important security issues is of course the situation in the Deep South. Therefore some concerns about the decision include the possible lack of time for Shinawatra to go and visit the Deep South on a regular basis. Furthermore her lack of experience is a concern to some people, too. (Bangkok Post, The Nation)
In Tak’s Mae Sot district Thai soldiers seized a huge amount of heavy firearms, like rifles and machine guns, and more than 100,000 rounds of ammunition. The weapons were, according to army sources, found in a pick-up truck without a license plate, driven by a Karen man. The sources also said that the arms were probably about to be smuggled to the Border Guard Force units in Karen State, Myanmar. (Bangkok Post)
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