Summary
In politics, Thailand’s political impasse will reach its high point next week, 13 January 2014, with the planned “Operation Bangkok Shutdown” by the People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC). The PDRC remains adamant that political reform is needed before holding elections. Subsequently, the Democrat Party has decided to boycott the elections, which analysts argue would be won by Pheu Thai again, and instead support the previous Democrat Party MP and current PDRC secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban, who announced that the PDRC will “not allow the election to take place on February 2”.
Thai economy has had a rough sprint to the end of the year with massive protests in Bangkok affecting both currency value, exports, growth and the important tourism industry. With the upcoming Bangkok ‘shutdown’, protest leader Mr. Thaungsuban has repeatedly stated that there will only be minor impact on economic activity in the capital despite reports from the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce that economic losses could amount to 20 billion baht.
In security, the unrest in Southern Thailand continues to claim victims of deaths and critical injuries. Songkhla, a southern province away from the border of Malaysia, experienced bombings in several locations in a coordinated attack in December.
Politics
Thailand’s political impasse will reach its high point next week, 13 January 2014, with the planned “Operation Bangkok Shutdown” by the People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC). The PDRC remains adamant that political reform is needed before holding elections. Subsequently, the Democrat Party has decided to boycott the elections, which analysts argue would be won by Pheu Thai again, and instead support the previous Democrat Party MP and current PDRC secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban, who announced that the PDRC will “not allow the election to take place on February 2”. Anti-government protesters consequently blockaded as many registration centers as possible across the country, halting candidate registration in 24 southern constituencies, a traditional stronghold of the opposition Democrat Party. The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) has meanwhile decided to press charges against 308 ex-MPs and senators for misconduct in connection with the charter amendment to make the Senate fully elected. While caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and 72 other lawmakers were spared, the 308 MPs who supported the draft charter change are charged with violating Section 68, which prohibits attempts to overthrow the monarchy and unconstitutional efforts to seize power. Former election commissioner and one of Thailand’s leading constitutional experts Gotham Arya commented on these investigations that the Anti-Corruption Commission had “charged the legislators for just doing their jobs.”
Caretaker PM Yingluck insisted that the vote will go ahead as planned on 2 February and Pheu Thai followed suit by erecting the first election posters – no other Party has followed so far. Yingluck had previously stated that the PDRC’s demands for a people’s council are simply unconstitutional and that by calling snap elections the government would have given power back to the people and it would now be up to them to decide on the future of the country. Red-shirt leaders showed their support for general elections, explicitly stating that they “will not give up the country to Mr. Suthep.”
The army has remained on the sidelines and attempted to mediate between the two groups despite efforts by the anti-government protesters to involve the army and trigger a coup.
International media, initially supporting the protests against the planned amnesty bill, has now widely turned against them and characterized the PDRC as anti-democratic and elitist, intent on establishing a “wise-men oligarchy” (The Guardian) to “reform” the country. Reform plans have meanwhile remained rather obscure as no plan has been laid out how to achieve any of the goals the PDRC has set for itself. Chris Baker, author and commentator on Thai politics, commented: “If you think for a minute about what Suthep is proposing – an 18 month interim parliamentary government while they think up reform – which is what they did after the coup (2006) and they want to try it again – it’s outrageous – really outrageous. There seems to be this extraordinary faith that this process which has been done countless times before without achieving anything will suddenly deliver nirvana – unbelievable.” Political scientist Titipol Phakdeewanich, from the University of Ubon Ratchathani, stated that the protesters continued disregard and contempt for people from Thailand’s rural northeast, which they explicitly consider as “too stupid for elections” alienates the movement and forces the red shirts to become more united with Thaksin.
Based on preliminary talks, about 45 parties are ready to contest the election on 2 February. Anti-government protesters sabotaging the election as well as the result of the NACC investigation of 308 ex-MPs might result in too few MPs being elected though, delaying the reopening of parliament. (Bangkok Post, Bloomberg, New York Times, Reuters, Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian, Voice of America, Wall Street Journal)
Economy
Thai economy has had a rough sprint to the end of the year with massive protests in Bangkok affecting both currency value, exports, growth and the important tourism industry. Exports had already started dropping in October in a year-on-year comparison but the drop then surpassed Reuters projection of a 1.7 fall in November with a final decline in exports for November landing at 4.1 percent. Meanwhile, the Commerce Ministry is repeating the discourse from last year in affirming that exports should grow in the coming year as the global economy recovers and the important western markets increase their imports. The growth forecasts for 2013 were cut one final time, and the Fiscal Policy Office set their expectation at 2.8 per cent. Final growth figures for 2013 have yet to be published. (Business Recorder, The Nation)
The baht was also heavily affected as the currency fell for a record-long 11-day streak. On January 2, 2014 the baht reached 32.958 against the dollar which is the weakest level in nearly four years. The beginning of the year of the horse was also tough for the stock market and foreign investment as both continued their drop from December. Only in December, investors retreated and removed 1.3 billion USD from the Thai stock market. (Bloomberg)
The tourism industry was widely predicted to recoil during the important high and peak season over Christmas but this projection was disproved as foreign tourist arrivals grew in November by 11.9 per cent compared to last year, despite political turmoil. Agencies are however reporting changes of travel itineraries to avoid Bangkok and rerouting tourists to other popular destinations, such as Phuket. Although tourism has remained strong throughout the conflicts analysts do not rule out negative effects on Thailand’s image as a tourism haven and 112 flights to Bangkok have already been cancelled due to reduced demand in view of the so called Bangkok ‘shutdown’ that is to take place from Monday 13th. (Bangkok Post, The Nation, Bloomberg)
Economic analysts are warning that the anti-government force’s ‘shutdown’ will create significant losses for the Thai economy and private businesses. The economic loss has been estimated at 20 billion baht by the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce. Protest leader Mr. Suthep Thaugsuban however stated that the shutdown would only have a minor impact on the economy, since it would be located in seven major spots and airport as well as public transportation will be allowed to function normally. Depending on the length of the proclaimed shutdown, it is nevertheless difficult to believe that private business would not suffer from blockades of incoming and outgoing goods or complications/delays in transportation of key service providers or material. (BusinessInsurance.com, Global Times)
If political tension continues in 2014, the Bank of Thailand warns that growth for next year may land below 4 per cent. (Business Recorder, The Nation)
Security
Expecting to block 20 roads and set up 20 stages, protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban threatens to disrupt Bangkok with mass protests to “shutdown” the city on January 13th with the intention to send a message for national reform and the complete removal of Yingluck’s influence. In response, the leader of the red-shirted United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship, Nattawut Saikuar, has called for counter-rallies across the country. Some schools have been cautioned to prepare extra safety measures and order a temporary shutdown if necessary. Prime Minister Yingluck asks for the military to intervene and help police enforce law and order if Suthep tries to “shutdown” Bangkok. However, Army Commander Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha was hesitant to answer her call since soldiers got a bad reputation and were charged for their involvement in the 2010 protests. The armed forces have stated the conflict is not at a level necessary for enforcement of the emergency decree, but they would agree to do so if they had reasonable grounds to act. Still, the National Security Council has indicated security measures have been placed to handle any incidents on January 13th. On a side note, the army has indicated plans to move some tanks and artillery from their bases to the capital for the occasions of Children’s Day on January 11th, when the army hosts activities for families. Due to the protesters near Government House, deputy secretary general Thawat Boonfuang has stated it is likely for Children’s Day activities to be cancelled or relocated. This month will also hold its first annual Army Day on January 18th. The army plans to showcase its great force and strength but denies the preparations are to stage a coup, as rumored, and are only for the parade.
The unrest in Southern Thailand continues to claim victims of deaths and critical injuries. Songkhla, a southern province away from the border of Malaysia, experienced bombings in several locations in a coordinated attack in December. In the past two weeks, Yala and Narathiwat experienced small bombings of their own while Pattani has encountered a string of drive-by shootings. Since January 2004, the unrest in Thailand’s southern border provinces has witnessed almost 6,000 deaths. More than 10,000 have been injured. More attacks occurred in 2013 than in 2012, but the Internal Security Operations Command implies 615 attacks are still a low statistic and a good trend, considering the number of attacks in the past several years. According to a senior researcher on Thailand for Human Rights Watch, the rise in attacks last year was in response to the peace talks in Malaysia between Thai delegation and the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) separatist movement. Peace talks remain delayed since the latest meeting in June. Recently, the army has ordered military rangers to set up camps in the Budu mountain range to monitor the insurgents who use the area as a base for guerilla training and hideouts. The order was issued by army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha as a proactive approach against rebel groups. Although he is preoccupied with protests in Bangkok, Gen Prayuth aims to remain updated on the affairs in the Deep South. (Bangkok Post)
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