(Image source: Bangkok Post)
Summary
In politics, Mr. Jatuporn Promphan has been appointed as a new red shirt leader. As Suthep vows to continue protesting all year, his house has been targeted for a third time. PDRC is waiting for UDD party strategies often involving violence to come to their aid. Possibilities of peace talks among government and PDRC have been rejected.
In economics, concerns have been raised by many foreign investors and businesses as the political situation has caused further delay to Thailand’s economic strategies. The EU-Thailand FTA fourth round of negotiations set in March or April were delayed as Thailand lacked a head for its negotiating team. Moreover, the Constitutional court ruling on the 2 trillion baht borrowing bill has hampered the government’s plan for the high-speed train. These circumstances may have a negative impact on Thailand competitive advantage and its bid to become the region’s center for business and manufacturing. The Finance ministry is ready to release 20 billion baht from the National Budget to repay the farmers in the Rice Pledging scheme. Overall, the government owes a total of 119.5 billion baht to 1.527 million farmers participating in the Rice Pledging scheme. The rice auction that was set on March 26th was postponed to a later a date due to little attendance from bidders.
In security, the protest stages were condensed to a single area in Lumpini Park which had a couple rare cases of violent threats. As protesters commit to an extended campaign, the army continues to issue warnings to political groups to avoid encouraging public disorder. In the South of Bangkok, an environmental disaster is occurring as toxic fumes from a burning garbage dump forces communities to evacuate. In Southern Thailand, fatal incidents continue with no sign of resuming peace talks.
Politics
Ms. Tida Tawornseth, former leader of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), announced her resignation last Saturday in Ayutthaya. Newly elected leader, Mr. Jatuporn Promphan has been received very well among the UDD party. Other UDD officials report he was accepted by all UDD branches, is a suitable opponent for the People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) leader Suthep Thaugsuban and will lead a more aggressive political strategy that would not turn violent. Mr. Jatuporn is a past Pheu Thai Party MP and continues to face charges of terrorism for his leadership in the 2010 red-shirt protests. The new UDD leader has been quoted saying, “The next battle will be big.” However, he has vowed that no weapons will be used in new strategies. He has made his belief that the PDRC will not succeed clear, and that the UDD’s primary rival is not Suthep but the amart system that is using him as their puppet. The amart system is seen by the UDD as an elite connection of old patronage, having some control of six independent organizations, such as the National Anti-Corruption Commission, founded under the 2007 constitution. For the past 4 months the UDD has taken a defensive stance. Mr. Jatuporn hasn’t given a timeframe, but has said to expect a more aggressive fight from the UDD. (Bangkok Post)
In recent news, Suthep Thaugsuban’s house in Thawi Watthana district was targeted by a bomb for the 3rd time. His wife was home at the time, but no one was injured in the incident. According to Suthep’s stepson, the latest grenade was fired last Saturday around 7pm. The first two occurred on March 10th. In none of the incidents did he contact police to investigate. (Bangkok Post)
PDRC has no plan to back down. In fact, they are hopeful that the more aggressive tactics the UDD has said it will take will end up helping the PDRC’s goals. If violence ensues, as the red shirts have a past history of, military would have to intervene. This could lead to a favorable outcome for the PDRC. UDD strategists among others are sure the PDRC see military involvement as a potential means for a coup. Regardless of UDD steps and the Thai military, Suthep have vowed to continue protesting indefinitely in Lumpini until caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra steps down and the nation begins to take steps towards reform. He has said there is no other means for reform than a neutral government, made up of individuals with no ties to any political party including the Democrat Party. (Bangkok Post)
On Monday, peace talks between government and PDRC were proposed by six independent organizations: the Election Commission, the National Human Rights Commission, the Office of the Ombudsman, the State Audit Commission, the National Anti-Corruption Commission and the National Economic and Social Advisory Council. Peace plans suggested having both parties create a list of ten politically neutral individuals that could mediate peace talks. From the lists, five people would need to be listed in common by both groups and these would be the chosen mediators. However, both parties rejected the proposal. Ms Yingluck said she would wait for PDRC to make the first step, however Suthep said the PDRC will make no list of names. (Bangkok Post)
Economic
ASEAN plans to resume free-trade talks with the EU free trade agreement (FTA), as ASEAN member countries is readying themselves for market liberalization with developed countries. Thailand’s political situation has hampered negotiations between Thailand and the EU. The EU-FTA agreement with Thailand was targeted for 2014, but the house dissolution has delayed the process further. The fourth round of negotiations between Thailand and the European Union was set around March or April, however was postponed as “Thailand lacked a head for its negotiating team” said Rolf-Dieter Daniel, President of the EABC. The EU has had further negotiation progress with neighboring countries, where Singapore has completed an FTA deal, will close an agreement with Malaysia by the end of the year. Vietnam has already negotiated six rounds of talks. Without an FTA or a Generalized System of Preference (GSP), Thailand will have higher tariff rates than its trade rivals. This on top of trade barriers such as out-dated or overly strict regulations can impact Thailand’s bid for its role as the regional centre for manufacturing and business. Concerns regarding Thailand’s competitiveness were raised as the drawn-out political conflict is affecting investor’s confidence and may cause Thailand to fall behind its regional competitors. (NATION)
FDI investments from Japan still consider Thailand as its top destination, and will continue to focus on Thailand as its regional headquarters. Nevertheless, Thailand needs to expand its measures to enhance human resources. Skilled-labor shortage in the management level is a concern for many Japanese companies as they look for local managers to run their regional headquarters. (Bangkok Post)
The Constitutional Court ruled that the 2 trillion baht borrowing bill was unconstitutional, delaying the government’s high-speed train plan. The verdict may have a negative impact to Thailand’s competitive advantage as infrastructure investments are needed for the development of the country. However many foreign companies have stated confidence may increase since “the country is doing things on the right track”. The Committee on Economic Development of the Northern Region of the Thai Chamber of Commerce has stated the ruling will impact the property market, but will not have drastic impact on businesses in the North due to urbanization and cross-border trade. The government should still invest in infrastructural developments, and was urged to prioritize the development of a dual-track rail which is the cheaper alternative to the high-speed train. (The Nation)
Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong has set to release 20 billion baht for the National budget so payments to the farmers can be made. A total of 581,000 farmers (out of 1.527 million farmers) have received money. The Ministry of Commerce said it approved the sale of 180,000 tonners of rice to winning bidders. The overall money earned was around 8.5 million to 9 million baht. Further auction was postponed will March 26th due to little attendance from bidders. The BAAC reported that they had raised 846.29 million baht through the Farmer’s Assistance Fund. The government had owed 119.5 billion baht to almost million farmers in the rice pledging scheme that ended on February 28th. Farmers in the South, pledging period was extended to July 31st. (Bangkok Post, The Nation)
Security
Since the protest stages have been dismantled to concentrate at Lumpini Park, the worries of violent tensions have declined. However, a few cases still continue. Earlier this month, two soldiers were arrest at Lumpini during a late night for possession of weapons and ammunition in a vehicle without permission. They refused to provide any statement, but the weapons did not belong to their unit. Additionally, two grenades were discovered near Suthep’s home in Thawi Watthana district. It is suspected the grenades were shot from a distance. More recently, the army claims they are examining an audio clip of red-shirt leader Wutthipong “Ko Tee” Kachathamkhun” which is a recording of his phone interview with a radio host. The man claims to give details and justification for accumulating weapons in preparation for a fight with soldiers. The army accuses the clip for encouraging public disorder and will attempt to pursue legal action with the police. Moreover, the army cautioned groups of people from using court decisions to fuel their political conflicts. Army spokesperson Winthai Suwari asked for respect for the justice process after the Constitution Court ruled the 2-trillion baht borrowing bill for infrastructure development projects as unconstitutional. (Bangkok Post)
This week, a burning garbage dump in Samut Prakan has been declared a disaster area as toxic fumes have forced thousands to evacuate. The fumes started on Sunday, March 16th, and have spread to areas near Bangkok such as Bang Na, Saphan Sung, and Prawet. The substances involved sulphur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and some carcinogenic chemicals which are harmful to the respiratory system. At least 5,000 masks wer e handed to protect citizens. Teams from 9 firefighting stations were able to contain the fire, but they were unable to extinguish it, claiming it would take three days. However, there have been no reports of serious cases caused by the toxic fumes. (The Nation, National News Bureau of Thailand)
In Southern Thailand, the fatal incident involving three young children was revealed to be a separate incident from the violent unrest which has escalated since 2004. The crime against a family of five, killing three children and injuring the parents, was related to a family feud in which the attacker claimed revenge for his brother. However, other attacks have been related in revenge for the three children. In the last two weeks, 14 people have been killed and 10 injured. Most of the incidents were gunfire attacks (22 of the 24 incidents), but two civilians were victims of being set on fire. Additionally, bombs were detonated in a public school area, but nobody was injured. While the peace talks are still suspended, the emergency decree in Southern Thailand has been approved for a three-month extension ending in mid-June. (Bangkok Post)
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