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Summary

Thailand’s political tensions are threatening to boil over this week, as both yellow and red shirt protests have disrupted normal activity in and around Parliament. Currently, the extreme wings of both sides are angered over recent moves in Thailand’s legislative and judicial branches; the yellow shirts are vehemently opposed to the reconciliation bills being considered, while the red shirts are outraged over the Constitutional Court’s move to delay voting on proposed amendments to Thailand’s constitution.

Economic observers, as well as the Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT), are concerned about the economic consequences of further political instability. If protests intensify, they say, it will greatly lower growth prospects for tourism. However, on a positive note, reports just released from the Bank of Thailand show that Thailand’s manufacturing saw a positive year-on-year gain in April, the first in five months since the devastating flood’s last year.

On the security front, heavy rains and storms have ravaged parts of Thailand’s south this week, flooding homes, causing landslides, and knocking over trees and telephone poles.  At the time of this writing, evacuations have taken place in Ranong, and Sura Thani. Meanwhile, a state of emergency has been declared in four districts in Chumphon. In Thailand’s restive southern border provinces, violence continued, as there were three separate shootings, a school burning, and one bomb attack in Pattani; one shooting in Yala; and one shooting in Narathiwat.

Politics

Reduced to a side story due to the tumultuous political events of the last two weeks that saw color coded street protests return to Thailand, two of the 111 Thai Rak Thai executives, whose five-year ban from politics ended on May 30, have officially taken up government positions.  Suranand Vejjajiva was appointed as the prime minister’s secretary-general while Sansanee Nakpong is the new government spokesperson.

The main stories dominating political headlines started on May 30 with what The Nation called “The worst chaos in the history of Thai Parliament”. Following three hours of heated debate House Speaker Somsak Kiartsuranond decided to call for a vote on whether deliberation on the four submitted reconciliation bills should start the same day, prompting a fiery response from opposition Democrats who wanted to debate the issue further. Some Democrat MPs again mimicked the Nazi salute in front of Somsak while others tried to remove him from his seat altogether, prompting Pheu Thai MPs to come for his defense as well as security forces entering parliament to soothe tensions and divide the opposing parties. Three of the four reconciliation bills include a blanket amnesty to everyone involved in political conflicts since 2006, which the opposition fears are designed to whitewash former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and bring him back to Thailand. Additional opposition to the blanket amnesty bills not only come from certain factions inside the red shirt movement, but also from Wicha Mahakhun, a member of the National Anti-Corruption Commission, who argued that there had never been a bill in the country’s history that would cancel court cases and legal charges.

Outside of parliament, a group of up to 5,000 people, mostly PAD supporters, voiced their opposition towards an amnesty that would include Thaksin Shinawatra. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of Chulalongkorn University’s Institute of Security and International Studies, commented that he has the feeling Thaksin thinks it would be the right time to push the reconciliation bill through, while Chris Baker, an author and commentator on Thai politics, argued that it would be a risky effort that may trigger new political instability, adding “it is possible that this will allow the Yellow Shirts to make something of a comeback.  I think it is very uncertain at the moment.  It really depends a lot now on whether we do see a significant revival of support for Yellow Shirt rallying.” (Voice of America)

Former Prime Minister and opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva left no doubt about his support for the protests – once again moving the Democrats and PAD closer together – stating, “The nation’s justice system and righteousness are about to be destroyed if the reconciliation law enters the parliament and gets approved… We shouldn’t call it a reconciliation law because it is a law to erase wrongdoings.” (Bloomberg)

Following the House of Representatives vote to move deliberation on the reconciliation bills up the agenda and was scheduled to take place on Friday, June 1. PAD protesters joined forces with the multicolored shirts led by Tul Sitthisomwong to block Kan Ruen intersection on Rajvithee Road, which is the only access route to the Parliament. Lawmakers were thus unable to enter Parliament and vote on the reconciliation bills, therefore requiring a postponement of the consideration of the reconciliation bills. A Pheu Thai source indicated the following week that vote on the reconciliation bills will be moved to August 1. By the time of that statement another conflict had already taken over Thai politics and the accompanying street protests.

The Constitutional Court ordered a suspension of the third reading of the proposed charter change bill, leading to heated debates, starting on the weekend June 2-3, about the role of the Court and its meddling in Thai politics. While the Constitutional Court, after a 7-1 vote, feared that changes to the constitution could lead to an attempt to overthrow the constitutional monarchy, law experts of the Nitirat group as well as legal expert and former senator Panas Tassaneeyanond, among others, argued that the Court order would be unconstitutional and Parliamentarians thus would not have to and should not follow it. Jatuporn Prompan as well as former Thai Rak Thai Party leader Chaturon Chaisang took up this torch and spoke of an attempt to topple the government through a judicial coup. Thaksin added further fuel to the fire in a fiery video message to red shirt supporters celebrating the fifth anniversary of their television programme Truth Today, stating that the Constitution Courts decision was an attempt to destroy the government, adding “I had earlier thought reconciliation would happen soon, but it won’t.” His sister, current Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, on the other hand tried to defuse the situation by assuring that the reconciliation bills’ purpose was to end the conflict in the country and not to refund Thaksin’s money. She was adamant that reconciliation would have to happen now, thus political rivals have to forgive each other, otherwise the Kingdom would risk facing another “cycle of violence”. Opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva meanwhile warned that defying the court’s ruling would further add to the existing tensions and “havoc would result”.

In an official statement following the rising tensions, and red shirts announcing they would demonstrate in front of Parliament and gather signatures for a petition to hand to Senate Speaker Thiradej Meepian asking him to impeach seven of the eight Constitution Court judges, high court president Wasan Soypisudh announced that following five complaints lodged questioning the legality of the charter change under Article 68 the Constitution Court had to launch an inquiry. He added that the inquiry would seek a guarantee that no amendments were made regarding the role of the monarchy. Wasan’s statement therefore contradicts other legal experts who claim that charter amendments is the work of the parliament and does therefore not fit article 68, which only applies to persons or political parties. The Nitirat group additionally claims that petitions may only be submitted to the attorney-general who investigates the matter and then passes the petitions to the court. The court would have no right to initiate a pre-trial procedure. Winai Damrongmongkolkul, spokesman for the attorney-general, announced at a press conference that the attorney-general had decided not to forward the petitions to the court as he did not regard the charter changes as an attempt to overthrow the political system. He added though that the agency would not interfere with decisions by any other agency.

As section 291 of the constitution states that the vote on the bill in the third reading must be taken within 15 days, Pheu Thai has decided to go ahead with the third reading defying constitutional orders. Paul Chambers, director of research at the Southeast Asian Institute of Global Studies at Payap University in Chiang Mai, already issued a warning about the possibility of another ‘judicial coup’, stating “If things continue as they are right now, then Yingluck’s days are numbered. If Pheu Thai steps back and ends the attempts to change the constitution, then Yingluck can stay in office perhaps until her term is over.”(Bangkok Post) (The Nation) (Washington Post) (Chicago Tribune) (Channel News Asia) (AsiaOne) (Associated Press)

Thailand’s lese majeste convictions have reached a new level with the sentencing of Chiranuch Premchaiporn to an eight-month suspended sentence. Chiranuch’s sentence was unique in that she was not herself the author of the offending comment, but as a former webmaster at the Prachatai news website she was found guilty for not deleting offending comments fast enough. Internet business operators reacted with disappointment. Taj Meadows, Asia Pacific spokesman for Google, said “Today’s guilty verdict for Chiranuch Premchaiporn, for something somebody else wrote on her website, is a serious threat to the future of the Internet in Thailand,” adding, “Telephone companies are not penalized for things people say on the phone and responsible website owners should not be punished for comments users post on their sites.” Brad Adams, Asia director of Human Rights Watch, as well as Benjamin Zawacki, a Thailand researcher for Amnesty International, also expressed their discontent as self-censorship is likely to follow due to the verdict. (Bloomberg Businessweek) (New York Times)

Economics

Despite negotiations hosted by the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC), which aimed at finding a solution to the dispute over live coverage of the 2012 UEFA European Football Championship (Euro 2012) that is starting from today, June 8, until July 1, TrueVisions subscribers will remain without access to live broadcast of the world class tournament. GMM Grammy, the broadcast rights holder, has leased airtime to its media partners, free-TV Channel 3, 5 and 9, which will allow viewers to watch via conventional antennas.  In addition, viewers can watch the tournament via authorized cable and satellite TV operators such as Cable Thai Holding’s network; DTV satellite TV sets and GMM Z set-top boxes sold by GMM Grammy itself.  However, it insisted that TrueVisions must not air the matches and will have to stop broadcasting on some of its channels (3, 5 and 9) during the football game time. The NBTC committee ordered TrueVisions not to allow its free-TV channels to go dark and to continue providing services to subscribers according to its terms and conditions during the tournament. Also the NBTC stated that TrueVisions may have to enter into the same agreement as upcountry cable operators signed with free-TV operators because customers should have the right to watch programs on the free-TV according to the contract conditions between TrueVisions and its subscribers. (The Nation) (Bangkok Post)

The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) is planning to close down the BTS Saphan Taksin Skytrain station in order to ease the bottleneck problem over its stretch across the Chao Phraya River. The BTS current operator, Bangkok Mass Transit System Public Company Limited (BTSC), has agreed to cooperate. According to Bangkok Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra, the Bangkok Council has already approved more than 670 million baht budget for installing an additional track on the area used by the Saphan Taksin Station, as well as building a 700 meter skywalk in addition to moving walkways for the convenience of passengers who will have to take the Skytrain from the Surasak Station instead. (The Nation)

The latest data from the Bank of Thailand indicates that economic activity picked up in April, with manufacturing activity coming back to positive growth, driven by stronger production of motor vehicles and electrical appliances responding to robust domestic demand. The manufacturing production index rose by 0.5 percent year-on-year (y-o-y) in April, the first positive rise in five months. Agricultural output fell by 0.3 percent y-o-y due to lower rice production and base effects, and farm income also fell by 13.5 percent y-o-y on the back of a 13.2 percent y-o-y decline in prices. April’s exports fell by 3.5 percent y-o-y while imports rose by 9 percent y-o-y with the total trade deficit of 734 million US dollars for the month. Investment and consumption picked up in April largely from the contribution of the improvement in auto sector. (Bangkok Post)

Last week, Thailand had hosted the World Economic Forum (WEF) on East Asia under the theme of “Shaping the Region’s Future through Connectivity” from May 30^th to June 1^st. The top issues discussed are the economic outlook for the East Asian region, the type of financial policies needed to manage inflation, capital outflows and commodity price volatility as well as how to better integrate the 10 member countries of ASEAN. The event gathered more than 700 participants from 50 countries including government and state leaders, business leaders, as well as Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.  Suu Kyi was definitely the focus of this event as she impressed all the participants with her appearance and speeches on urging Myanmar’s government and the international community’s help to push forward urgent judicial reform in Myanmar as well as in the WEF session on “Asian Women as the Way Forward”. (The Nation) (Bangkok Post) (National News Bureau of Thailand)(CNTV)

ASEAN Secretary General Dr. Surin Pitsuwan, in an address to the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations on June 1^st, stated that investment in innovation and R&D is the key to break the “middle-income trap” faced by ASEAN countries besides Singapore. He also encouraged the improvement of small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which represent the economic foundation for Thailand and other ASEAN countries, to be able to leverage innovation and R&D and invest in foreign countries. (Bangkok Post)

The Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT) predicts that political instability and intensified protests will put pressure on Thailand’s tourism industry in the third quarter. Earlier this year, tourism industry were optimistic about its prospects; however, the sentiment turned bad once the government attempted to pushing forward its reconciliation bills, triggering new demonstrations by the yellow-shirt People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) and the Democrat Party. The TCT stated that the global economic crisis, higher cost of living, and higher operating costs from the minimum wage hike are the main factors affecting tourism in the first half of this year. (Bangkok Post)

Security

NEW: Click here to view HDFF’s Southern Thailand Incident Map. It provides geographical time log on all reported security incidents in the three southern border provinces since February 2012.

On Monday, a 4.0 magnitude earthquake struck Ranong province, damaging five houses in Muang district. Residents near the epicenter reported feeling strong shaking and ran outside fearing their homes and offices might collapse. The quake could be felt across the district and especially by residents in tambons Bang Non, Khao Niwet, Pak Nam and Bang Rin.

This week storms, floods, and landslides have ravaged the provinces of Chumphon, Ranong, and Mae Hong Son. The storms began Sunday evening, but locals in affected provinces have continued to brace themselves for more extreme weather as the Meteorological Department reports a low pressure front over the North and a southwest monsoon over the Gulf of Thailand.

In Chumphon, four districts have been declared under state of emergency, as flooding has inundated forty percent of the area. Previously, two villages of tambon Banna in Muang district, as well as one village in Hin Kaew of Tha Sae district, were hit with heavy winds and rain, leading to flooding of up to two meters.   The area affected is home to an estimated 500 families. Many roads in the area are reportedly impassable, while the Chumphon canal has reportedly burst its banks, causing more flooding of low lying areas. Further, a one-kilometer section of the Asian Highway route 41 near Pathomporn intersection in Muang district was under about 20-80cm of water, making it impossible for small vehicles to pass.

In Mae Hong Son, heavy rains set in motion landslides that blocked access to Paklao village in tambol Pang Moo of Muang district. Workers spent several hours clearing the route, but officials are warning of more landslides to come in Pai and Muang districts.

Ranong is considered the hardest-hit province by this week’s storms. Flood waters converged on three tambols in Kapur district, inundating 500 households in urban areas and another 1,000 in remote rural areas. Meanwhile, another 3,000 households have been evacuated for fear of more flashfloods. Another 1,500 communities in another district were hit, destroying pig pens and shrimp ponds.

Nearby provinces of Trang, Sura Thani, and Krabi, have also been affected. In anticipation of more storms, 60 households in Sura Thani have been evacuated, while storms have damaged homes and crops in Krabi. In Trang, falling trees and electricity poles are posing a serious safety concern as heavy winds slam the region. Already, a mother and young daughter were killed in their sleep when trees fell on their home. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)

More violence occurred in Pattani province this week, as a village headman was shot in his pickup truck while returning home from a meeting in Muang district. The attack occurred on Tuesday, shortly after 1pm on a road at Ban Kuya in tambon Paka Harang. The weapons used by the suspected militants in the incident were M16s and AK47 rifles. Additionally, two separate shootings occurred in tambol Ko Chan and in Sai Buri district. These cases involved one victim each, and both are in critical condition. In tambon Talo Duraman of Kapho district, a pickup truck was hit by a bomb buried beneath the road, injuring two of the five soldiers inside.

In yet another development, Baan Bue Nae Pinae school in Yarang district of Pattani was set ablaze Thursday evening. Witnesses report that four men arrived at the school at 8pm in a pickup and broke into the building while others were out praying. They piled up books from the classrooms, poured oil on them, and set them on fire. Firefighters were able to put the blaze out, but the school was destroyed. There were no reported causalities. (Bangkok Post)

In neighboring Yala, a village defense volunteer was shot dead while riding his bicycle from Muang district to his home in Yaha. This shooting came shortly after two ranger camps had been hit by M79 grenades. Police suspect that militants of the Runda Kumpalan Kecil were involved. (The Nation)

In Narathiwat’s Sungai Padi district, gunmen wielding AK47 rifles killed two people and left five wounded. The attack occurred as the victims were drinking tea in a house in front of Prachanukroh School of tambon Paluru. Three of the victims are reported to be defense volunteers, while another was the house owner. (Bangkok Post) (Click here to view HDFF’s Southern Thailand Incident Map)

US Army Gen Martin Dempsey, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, visited Thailand this week and met with Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and Supreme Commander Tanasak Patimapragorn. At issue was a US Navy proposal to use the U-Tapao airfield, in Rayong province, as a multipurpose facility in humanitarian and disaster-relief operations. U-Tapao was a base for the US Air Force’s B-52 bombers during the Vietnam War. The airport was a headquarters for humanitarian aid in the 2004 tsunami and for 2008’s Cyclone Nargis. It also serves as a logistics hub for the annual Cobra Gold joint military exercises. (Asia One) (The Nation) (US Dept of Defense)

The proposal appears to be well-timed, as the World Health Organization (WHO), at its Regional Meeting on Disaster Risk Management in Health in Bangkok, has called for countries to put greater effort into disaster preparedness. According to the WHO, Southeast Asia accounted for 46% of the total global deaths from disasters from 2001 to 2010. (Bangkok Post)

Thailand is also being propositioned by the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to use U-Tapao as a weather monitoring station. Despite being separate from the US Department of Defense, NASA’s requests are in line with the overall US Navy strategy of concentrating its forces in the Pacific region. (Asia One)

On Tuesday, police discovered 90 bundles of ya ba pills hidden behind a 50cm x 100cm stereo speaker of a car. The owner, a 36-year-old Thai national, told investigators that the drugs were smuggled in from a neighboring country and he planned to sell them in Pathum Thani. The pills, totaling 180,000, are worth approximately 54 million baht. In separate development, a Ghanaian national was arrested at Suvarnhaphumi airport on Wednesday after he disembarked from an Ethiopian Airlines flight from Addis Abba, Ethiopia. Following a tip, customs officials searched his body and luggage before performing an x-ray. Officials then discovered 60 small bags of the drug ‘ice’ in his stomach. He has been charged with trying to smuggle in illegal drugs with the intent to sell and is currently in custody of the police Narcotics Suppression Bureau. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)

Following last week’s protest led by the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which forcibly prevented Thailand’s MPs from entering parliament to enact the much-criticized reconciliation bill, Police General Adul Saengsingkaew, seen as close to the Democrats, has been assigned to take charge of crowd control in Bangkok.  This week, the red shirts indicated their intention to rally at Parliament to protest the Constitutional Court’s move to delay a parliamentary vote on amending the constitution. In response, police have erected concrete barriers around key routes to the Parliament, such as at Karn Ruen, Pichai intersections, including the intersection between Ratchavithi Road and Rama 5 roads. National police Chief Pol Gen Priewpan Damapong was also seen surveying the area in the afternoon. Meanwhile, acting metropolitan police commissioner Pol Maj Gen Karmronwit Thupkrachang said that his policy is to avoid a clash between red shirts and PAD protests, as well as to treat every side with the same policy. (The Nation)