HDFF Bi-Weekly Thailand Review 4/3/2013-17/3/2013
Deputy House Speaker Charoen Jankomol chairs a meeting in Parliament Monday to discuss the passing of an amnesty law.(Source: The Nation)
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Summary
Following the re-election of Democrat Bangkok governor MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra, the Democrats are breathing a sigh of relief that Pheu Thai candidate Pongsapat Pongcharoen did not win, though many are wondering why the majority of polling organizations had forecasted he would. Post-election data showed the election was one of the most participated elections in Bangkok’s history, however the trends also suggested Bangkok voters are increasingly segmented along class lines, with wealthier centrally-located districts favoring the Democrats and less affluent suburbs preferring Pheu Thai.
Amid the Government’s spending fervor analysts worry that the losses from the rice-pledging scheme and the loans dedicated to massive infrastructure investments will harm Thailand’s economy in the long term. Meanwhile, the economy is moving ahead strongly and the SET reached its highest level in 19 months, sparking further complaints from the Finance Minister about the Bank of Thailand’s refusal to slash the policy interest rate.
Despite the recent peace agreement between Thailand’s government and the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) movement, seeking to end the violence in the South of Thailand, attacks and arson continued in the three southern border provinces. Thailand’s cabinet decided to extend the emergency decree in all three provinces, despite calls for instituting the Internal Security Act (ISA), which would make it easier for insurgents to turn themselves in. Secretary-general of the National Security Council Lt-Paradorn Pattanatbut contended that the situation was not ready for the ISA, and that government security forces still needed the operational flexibility that the emergency decree provides.
Politics
The Pheu Thai Party and their candidate Pongsapat Pongcharoen might be the obvious losers after the Bangkok gubernatorial election, but the race was always considered to be a tight affair, so no winner could have been called a surprise victor. The real loser of the election, analysts were quick to point out, had to be the polling organizations, who regularly predicted Pongsapat as the likely winner. In the end Democrat Party candidate Sukhumbhand Paribatra was re-elected for a second term with 46.3 percent of the vote, while Pongsapat received 39.7 percent. Voter turnout reached a historic high for the Thai capital with 64 percent of eligible voters casting their vote. While this could be billed as a positive democratic development, post-election analysis revealed the increased development of Bangkok, as in the country itself, into a two-party system divided along economic lines. The wealthy districts of central Bangkok supported Mr. Sukhumbhand while the poorer outskirts of the city supported the candidate from the governing Pheu Thai party. Bangkok governor Sukhumband as well as Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra both promised, after the election results were announced, to be ready to work with the other party seamlessly for the good of the country. Pheu Thai has nonetheless sent a defamation complaint to the Election Commission (EC), stating that Democrat MP for Songkhla Sirichoke Sopha posted pictures and comments about the burning of buildings in Bangkok during the 2010 political violence in an attempt to convince voters not to vote for Pongsapat. The EC has already found that he did not defame the Pheu Thai party but Sukhumband could still receive a yellow card which would nullify his poll victory. (Bangkok Post) (Washington Post) (New York Times) (Bloomberg) (Wall Street Journal)
New York-based NGO Human Rights Watch (HRW) accused Thai sailors of shooting at Rohingya refugees before forcing the boat back into the sea. According to HRW’s sources the incident happened on February 22. Navy commander Adm Surasak Rounroengrom insisted that the navy did neither kill nor shoot at the Rohingyas. The Admiral’s comments were backed by the foreign ministry which rejected the report as baseless. Vice Adm Tharathorn Khachitsuwan, commander of the Third Region Navy, and Rear Adm Weeraphan Sukkon, commander of the Royal Navy Phang Nga Base, meanwhile stated their belief that the navy was framed by Rohingyas who were angry because the navy did not let them come ashore. A navy source announced that “the sailors now have the job of cooking food for many Rohingyas because each boat carries as many as 100 people. Once they’ve eaten, they’re pushed back to sea.” (Bangkok Post)
Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra skyped to the Pheu Thai coordinating committee that the government should push for an amnesty law because the party had made too many compromises with the military and ammart (elites), which in turn led to a rift between Pheu Thai and the red-shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD). Sources after the meeting said that Thaksin told the party to prove to the red-shirts that the party is not ignoring them by pushing for an amnesty law. A recent bill by red-shirt MP Worachai Hema has not been pushed ahead on the House agenda though, as coalition whips did not consider it urgent. Worachai threatened to invoke his right as an MP to ask the House to put the bill on the agenda without waiting for the House Speaker to do so and thus have it bypass other drafts for deliberation. Worachai would need the support of 250 other MPs to get his bill to the top of the list and most Pheu Thai MPs do not seem to support Worachai’s agenda. Pheu Thai whip Piraphan Palusuk stated that “although the party agrees with the bill in principle, the timing is not right to push for its deliberation now.”
In response to Thaksin’s orders Army Commander Prayuth Chan-ocha and Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva announced that the government should not receive their orders from outside. Army Commander Prayuth stated: “We should listen to people who live here in the country and leave the person who stays overseas alone.” PM Yingluck Shinawatra responded by saying that the amnesty issue was under the scope of the Parliament and not the government and it was therefore up to them to decide on the matter. (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
Economics
During a seminar on March 14, financial and economic experts harshly criticized the government’s subsidies and so called “populist policies”. The rice-pledging scheme came under especially vociferous attack as economists estimated that the losses for Thailand’s economy would amount to 1.47 trillion Baht if the scheme is continued until the fiscal year 2018-2019. The government nevertheless stated that they will stick to the plan of extending the scheme into 2013, despite the losses expected from the sale of the current stockpile of rice. The Prime Minister’s Office Minister, Mr. Nawatthamrong Boonsongpaisan, admitted on March 7 that the losses for the government would indeed be significant when the stockpiled rice was sold since the pledging price was far above market prices. Previously, the government had insisted that no losses would be incurred since the demand for Thai rice would suffice to keep the rice prices at a higher level. The government’s current debt to the Bank of Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) is at 476.89 billion Baht and advisors are urging the government to start selling stockpiled rice to avoid letting increasing stocks drive prices down further. The Commerce Minister, Mr. Boonsoong Teriyapirom, insisted after a meeting with the National Rice Policy Committee that the government’s loan target of 500 billion Baht will not be exceeded. The committee meeting furthermore decided that the rice pledging price would be left unchanged at 15,000 baht per ton, however the committee decided to increase requirements on rice quality after the past two harvest seasons have seen farmers producing fast-growing, low-quality rice in order to profit from the scheme. In some cases it has been reported that farmers who leave their rice out to dry in public places have suffered thefts by persons wishing to gain money from the scheme. Despite the generous payment schemes, farmers remain worried about their future as debt problems are becoming major issues following prices hikes on farming equipment and the minimum wage reform. (Bangkok Post, The Nation)
The public spending spree continues as the Government prepares for several large-scale investments, among others in infrastructure, over the coming years. The government is planning to increase lending by 2.2 trillion Baht earmarked for infrastructure projects, a move that has been criticized by opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva as he points to problems concerning financial transparency and examination. Recently, the flood planning and water management project worth 350 billion baht has been criticized for lacking transparency and worries have been voiced about possible corruption. To avoid similar allegations, the Transport Ministry has decided to enter an “Integrity Pact” with the Anti-Corruption Organisation of Thailand (ACT) in which they will sign a contract guaranteeing transparency, reasonable pricing and finances open to scrutiny. Both the Ministry and its subcontractors will sign the contract. Continuing subsidies and investments lead some to worry about the future credit rating of Thailand as the ratio of debt to GDP is expected to reach 65.96 % in 2019 if Government policies continue. The Government has promised to keep public debt under control at a maximum of 50 % of GDP.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) reached its highest level in 19 months during the last fortnight, a development that sparked further reaction from Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong. The Finance Minister wants the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to reconsider its decision to keep the policy rate level, and although he says that he does not wish for an unusual weakening of the baht, (i.e. to the government’s ideal level of 31 baht to the dollar), he says that a stabilisation of the currency would be beneficial to exports. The BoT did not however express any concerns about the strong baht as it believes the currency’s position reflects the current economic situation. A senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank also indicated that foreign investors’ confidence in the Thai currency may contribute to the high level of the baht. (Bangkok Post)
Security
Undeterred by the steps forward in the situation in the South of Thailand through the upcoming peace talks between Thai authorities and representatives of the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) movement, the violence in the south of Thailand continues and various incidents through insurgents happened in the last two weeks.
On March 11, a volunteer ranger was killed and two were injured by a bomb attack in Yala. Besides that, security cameras on power poles were destroyed in the beginning of March. The police believe that there is a youth movement group behind the damage, which is against the agreed peace talks. Also insurgents set fire to tires in seven districts of Yala on March 4 to demonstrate their presence. In Pattani there were several gun attacks, in which three people were killed and one injured. One of the killed was an informant for the authorities. He was shot outside his house in Pattani. In Narathiwat there were also several attacks. On March 8, four suspected insurgents fired on children playing basketball and injured one 15-year-old boy. Besides that an assistant village headman was shot to death near his home in Narathiwat’s Rangae district last Thursday, March 14. (The Nation/ Bangkok Post)
While the violence continues in the south, the chief of the BRN movement, Hassan Taib, has told the group’s rebels to lower violence to create an adequate atmosphere for the upcoming peace talks. (Bangkok Post)
Because of the high number of civilians killed by attacks of insurgents, an immediate halt to bombings in residential areas and attacks on innocent civilians is on the agenda of the peace talks on March 28, National Security Council (NSC) secretary-general Lt-General Paradorn Pattanathabut said. He also expects that the BRN representatives will ask for something in exchange, which he thinks will be the expansion of areas covered by the Internal Security Act in place of the more-draconian Emergency decree. (The Nation)
On March 12 the Cabinet decided that the emergency decree in the three southern border provinces will be extended by another three months. There was consideration about the implementation of the Internal Security Act (ISA), which is less severe, in five districts (Yala’s Kabang and Betong districts, Narathiwat’s Sukhirin and Waeng districts, and Pattani’s Mai Kaen district) instead of the emergency decree. Secretary-general of the NSC Lt-Paradorn Pattanatbut explained that this was not possible, because the atmosphere and situation after the talks with BRN must be assessed first. He called the emergency decree as necessary for officials’ current work. Besides that, the Royal Thai Navy has established a new unit of 2,000 marine rangers in response to an Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC) decision to strengthen the security personnel in the southern border provinces. The new unit is based in Narathiwat and the rangers will be deployed in the four districts Muang, Bacho, Rueso and Tak Bai from April 1 onwards to support combating the security problems in the southern border provinces. (The Nation/ Bangkok Post)
In Songhkla security forces conducted raids as part of the measures being taken to intensify security. They raided 29 locations, arrested 24 suspects and confiscated drugs and firearms. (The Nation)
There were several clashes between the police or military and suspected drug smugglers or traffickers in the North of Thailand. One drug smuggler was killed in a clash with the Pha Muang Task Force in Chiang Rai and the soldiers found 60,000 speed pills, 35 rounds of ammunition for AKA assault rifles and a bottle of gun oil. There was another clash between the police and a group of suspected drug traffickers in Chiang Rai last Friday, March 10, where two of the men were killed and four arrested. The police confiscated two million methamphetamine tablets and 50 kilograms of crystal methamphetamine, worth well over 650 million Baht in total. (The Nation/ Bangkok Post)
Three Thai rangers of the Suranaree Taskforce stepped on landmines in Surin along the border to Cambodia on March 5 while patrolling the area. One of them was badly injured when the landmine exploded. Afterwards four more new landmines were found along the border area. The Suranaree Taskforce protested to Cambodia for allegedly planting new landmines along the shared border at Surin. Thailand and Cambodia have signed the Ottawa Traty, which bans signatories from using and stockpiling landmines. At the time of this writing, there was no reaction of Cambodia to this reproach yet. (The Nation)
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