Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra prepares to review an armed forces guard of honour ceremony held to mark her concurrently holding the defence minister post at the Defence Ministry Thursday
Summary
In political news, controversy arose over the leak of an audio recording in which Thaksin and Thailand’s deputy defense minister supposedly conspire to take over the armed forces in order to clear the path for an executive decree of amnesty for Thaksin. Additionally, Thaksin’s sister, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, becamed Thailand’s first female defense minister, sparking outrage from opposition groups, such as the Thai Patriots.
Despite unacceptably high levels of lead being detected in Thai rice exports to the US, prompting the Thai Rice Consumers Foundation to pressure the government for more testing, Thai rice exports remain steady so far. However, economic forecasts predict a fall in demand with slowing economic growth in China – Thailand’s largest market.
Observers and government authorities are watching in apprehension over whether the Muslim fasting period of Ramadan will allow for a violence-free period in the far South. Such a development could be beneficial for the already-fragile peace talks underway between Thailand the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN). While there’ve been security incidents, authorities were quick to blame them on personal quarrels or on non-BRN groups.
Politics
An audio recording with the voices of Thaksin Shinawatra and Deputy Defense Minister Yuthasak Sasiprapha dominated newspaper headlines over the last two weeks. In the audio clip, apparently recorded shortly before the fifth cabinet reshuffle of the Yingluck Shinawatra government, the two discussed a plan to take control of the armed forces and issue an executive decree to grant amnesty to Thaksin. The conversation furthermore made it seem as if Supreme Commander Thanasak Patimaprakorn and army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha already knew of the plan. While General Yuthasak denied it was his voice in the recording, Thaksin’s son Panthongtae stated that it was his father’s voice. The Pheu Thai party stated that the recording could have been doctored with and that an internal investigation would start to find out more details. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra defied all calls for General Yuthasak to be replaced stating that he should be given a chance to prove himself. She furthermore announced that she has no intention to intervene in the military’s annual reshuffle, adding, “After two years working closely with the army, it is proven that we can collaborate smoothly together.” Her announcement got supported by Thailand-based security consultancy PSA Asia’s briefing to clients which stated that “Despite the hoopla by antigovernment demonstrators, and as it was before the scandal broke, the Puea Thai Party is not likely to tinker with military promotions and, in turn, the military is likely to remain on the sidelines of domestic politics.” Army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha meanwhile denied having made a deal to bring Thaksin home. (The Wall Street Journal) (Bangkok Post) (The Nation)
The first female Prime Minister, and after the cabinet reshuffle first female defense minister of Thailand, Yingluck Shinawatra was greeted on her first day as Defense Minister by about 100 demonstrators of the Thai Patriots group, who attempted to block her from entering the ministry but were prevented from doing so by police forces. Protest leader Tul Sitthisomwong stated that Thailand’s military might have to stage another coup to avoid any civilian interference in its affairs. (The Wall Street Journal) (Bangkok Post)
Payao Akahad, mother of Kamolket, a paramedic who was killed in the political turmoil in 2010, submitted an amnesty bill to Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra via her deputy Phongthep Thepkanjana on July 16. Known as the people’s amnesty bill because it is supported by relatives of the victims of the 2010, the bill would grant an amnesty for people violating the State of Emergency by joining the political rallies but not to anyone who committed crimes during the crackdown. The Pheu Thai party as well as the UDD leadership have already announced they would not support this amnesty bill because violence ascribed to red shirt members was not included in the general amnesty. The government continues to support the amnesty bill proposed by Pheu Thai MP Worachai Hema. Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva on the other hand expressed his support for the people’s amnesty bill and would like the government to withdraw all other versions. (The Nation)
Economics
After US reports in April that exported Thai rice contained a level of lead that exceeded the regulatory limits, new reports have now called for further reviews of Thai rice as elevated levels of methyl bromide was found in a number of commercially available rice brands. Although the allowed level of the substance varies between nations, the tests carried out by the Thai Foundation for Consumers showed that 73.9 % of the sample (or 34 bags of different brands) contained some level of the substance, used in fumigation (killing crop pests by gassing them). The foundation invited the government to perform their own tests in the presence of civil society representatives to ensure maximum transparency but the government has rebuked that the rice is completely safe and that any residual levels of pesticides will disappear when the rice is cooked. Opinions diverge on the subject, while industry representatives state that fumigation is essential to avoid the appearance of toxic fungi during long transports and that Thai exporters follow international regulations on this matter others point out that methyl bromide is highly toxic to those who handle it and due to its effects on the ozone layer it has already been phased out in many nations. Although it would appear that the report has not cooled down exports to any extent, the Thai Rice Packer Association has agreed to conduct regular tests with the Foundation for Consumers and there have been statements from state agencies that quality checks will be carried out. (Bangkok Post, Channel NewsAsia, The Nation, UNEP Ozone Secretariat)
Despite the continued demand for Thai rice, overall exports are feared to fall this year as China’s economic growth is slowing down. The Chinese market is the largest for Thailand’s exporters, accounting for 12 % of exports in the first five months of 2013. (Bangkok Post)
On another topic, the government has launched a campaign to improve communications within Thailand’s administrative system. Over the next three months, all state officers are to be provided with smart phones, a measure that is expected to improve reporting of important problems such as security incidents in the south or the problem with haze pollution in the north. According to the deputy interior minister Visarn Techaterawat, 50 million baht have been budgeted for this investment. (The Nation)
Security
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra appointed herself as defense minister and is scheduled to chair the Defense Council meeting on July 25 for the first time as defense minister. She issued instructions for additional meetings to discuss security issues in Southern Thailand. She also ordered a review of southern violence to allow for necessary adjustments in security management plans.
Former Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh recommended continuous peace dialogue between Thai authorities and the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) southern separatist group, facilitated by Malaysia. Deputy Prime Minister Pracha Promnok added that peace talks should include the participation of more separatist groups.
Peace talks began in March and insurgent groups have taken different stances – the first group entered the talks; the second adopted a wait-and-see position; and the third opposed talks and continued carrying out attacks. One of BRN’s seven demands in exchange for curbing violence during the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan is the withdrawal of troops from Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat, as well as five districts of Songkhla; however, authorities will only be able to commit to a partial withdrawal of troops.
Mr. Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, Secretary-General of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, encouraged Thai authorities to empower people living in southern provinces in exercising their cultural and linguistic customs and managing their natural resources while respecting the country’s constitution and territorial integrity. The organization pledged its support to initiatives that promote peace and stability in southern Thailand.
The government closely monitors the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) separatist group’s observation of the 40-day “violence-free” period during the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan in the far South which started on July 10. Included in this peace deal are Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat, as well as the five districts of Songkhla – Na Thawi, Sadao, Chana, Thepa and Saba Yoi. However, the army has clamored for the exclusion of Songkhla’s Sadao in the ceasefire. They argued that Sadao is a violence-free area and is often used as an entry point for security forces.
There have been recent attacks during the said “violence-free” period but authorities say that there is a possibility that most of them are personal conflicts. However, for the first time since the beginning of the ceasefire, insurgents have been blamed for violence when a paramilitary ranger was injured from a bomb explosion on a road in Bannang Sata district of Yala on July 17.
The Southern Border Provinces Administrative Centre (SBPAC) established a special center for the coordination and promotion of peace during Ramadan 2013, has been set up. It has its own working committee that monitors the work of various agencies and organizations promoting peace during Ramadan and keeps track of violent incidents within 60 days during and after the Muslim holy month. SBPAC will produce operational reports, including recommendations to promote peace in the southernmost border provinces, and will provide relevant agencies with support and assistance.
Security forces scaled down their operations against insurgents during Ramadan and will comply with the religious practices of Muslim people during this time. The venue and the date for the next round of peace talks will be scheduled after Ramadan.
A large number of assorted ammunition and four rocket launchers were recovered from two suspects who were arrested in a raid in Muang district of Mae Hong Son in the morning of July 14.
A combined police and military team raided house No 85/5 in Bang Kung Mai Sak in Tambon Pang Mu of Muang district upon receipt of a tip that arms traders scheduled to deliver weapons and ammunition there. A total of 109,478 rounds of assorted ammunition, including 35,964 rounds for AK47 rifles and 31,600 rounds for M16 rifles, and four rocket launchers were recovered. Pol Sr Sgt Maj Sumeth Missita, a former police officer attached to the Police Quartermaster Division, and a civilian identified as Johndeer Sawasdee of Saraburi’s Wang Muang district were arrested.
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