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Summary
Almost all was quiet on the political front this week due to the Songkran holiday. Nevertheless, the polemical former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, while celebrating the water festival in Laos and Cambodia, stirred waves once more when he told journalists he would like to return to Thailand in time for his July 26 birthday this year. In economic news, Thailand’s stock market fell sharply due to a disappointing employment report from the United States, worries over European debt, and apprehension about instability arising from the earthquake off the coast of Indonesia. However, it made a surprise recovery on April 12, just before closing for the 4-day weekend. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its Thailand growth projections upward to 5.5 percent, owing to government spending on flood-related construction and reconstruction, mandated wage hikes, and consumption incentives on cars and houses. In spite of the high security across the Kingdom during the holiday, the danger of Thailand’s roads proved tragic for another year. Between April 9-15, there were 253 people killed in traffic accidents and 2,751 others injured in 2,134 road accidents, representing an increase over last year’s totals. Moreover, there were a number of disturbing violent outbreaks in the three southernmost provinces resulting in at least one death, multiple wounded, and widespread property damage.
Politics
As expected, the Songkran holiday resulted in a low-pitched week, relatively speaking, for Thai politics because most politicians went home to their respective provinces to celebrate with their families and constituents. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra returned to her home province of Chiang Mai and opened celebrations at Tha Phae Gate. Addressing the attending crowd, she called on Thai people to unite, forgive, and love one another saying, “May this year be full of love, forgiveness, and reconciliation in Thailand.” (AsiaOne)
National reconciliation remains on top of all political headlines as the decisive figure, Thaksin Shinawatra, announced his desire to be back in Thailand for his birthday, July 26. Celebrating his “best Songkran ever” surrounded by red shirt supporters in Laos and Cambodia, Thaksin stated he would be back once the political situation returned to normal, which he foresees happening in the near future. But later, talking to a crowd of journalists in Vientiane, he sounded off a more cautious tone saying, “It doesn’t matter whether I can return this year. It’s OK if I still cannot. But I think the country is on the path to reconciliation. I want to make sure all sides are happy.” In an apparently conciliatory mood, Thaksin praised Privy Council President General Prem Tinsulanonda, who most people would regard as his arch-enemy, affirming his respect and admiration for the elder statesman. While he promised to his redshirt supporters that the government would implement projects to help poor people and farmers, he explicitly praised his sister for avoiding his mistake of wading into the morass of countering political attacks. Regarding the opposition parties and groups Thaksin urged them to work with the government towards reconciliation as “it’s hard to clap with only one hand.”
Previously, opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva criticized the government’s reconciliation efforts as purely designed to whitewash former PM Thaksin and warned of a “political tsunami” in case Thaksin would return as a free man. At a seminar to commemorate the death of Gen Romklao Tuwatham, who was killed on duty on April 10, 2010 when soldiers clashed with red shirt protesters at Khok Wua intersection, the opposition made their stance against the reconciliation movement explicit. Senator Rosana Tositrakul argued that a constitutional change will lead to a government – and thus Thaksin-led –takeover and exploitation of Thailand, while Boworn Yasintorn, a scholar at the October 14 Academic Institute, favors renewed mass street protests saying, “If the government still defies the public’s sentiments against the enforced reconciliation and the push for rewriting a new constitution, the people must take to the streets again.” With Senator Somchai Sawang-Karn accusing the government of trying to forget the deaths of soldiers through their push for reconciliation and Democratic heavyweights, led by deputy leader Korn Chatikavanij, commemorating only the deaths of soldiers, the opposition presented their non-reconciliatory mood in no uncertain terms.
Analysts regard the circumstances for the opposition as increasingly hopeless. Prominent Thailand analyst W. Scott Thompson of Tufts University in the United States, for example, wrote last week, “About the only good solution that is faintly possible is if the ‘opposition’ — from Democrat Party to the palace itself — realized its hopeless position and negotiated a long-term deal, in which they gave up much of their privilege, yielded full power to Thaksin’s people, but with a backed-up and locked-in guarantee that he would not himself take the leadership, and that the palace was safe.” (Bangkok Post) (Al Jazeera) (AsiaOne) (Reuters) (San Francisco Chronicle)
Economics
During the week before the Songkran festival, overall Thai stocks fell 1.10 percent compared to the previous trading week, resulting from foreign investors’ sales of Thai stocks. Thailand’s stock market fell sharply on Tuesday and Wednesday, influenced by disappointing news about the United States non-agricultural sector employment number, the concern on eurozone debt situation as well as the earthquake in Indonesia. However, the SET index went back up 14.96 points, or 1.30 percent, to finish at 1,169.45 at the end of the trading session on Thursday, April 12, with 2.38 billion shares traded worth 20.60 billion baht. Thailand’s stock market was closed for 4 days during the Songkran holiday from April 13-16. (Thairath) (Bangkok Post)
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) projected Thailand’s economic growth of 5.5 percent, revised from the institution’s earlier projection of 4.5 percent. The anticipated rebound in economic growth this year relies on the government’s flood-related reconstruction and long-term projects involving flood prevention and water management. Also, private consumption is expected to grow due to minimum wages hike and incentives for first-time buyers of houses and cars introduced by the government. However, the ADB’s senior economist, Dr. Luxmon Attapich, said there are still risks including recession in the eurozone, which is an important source of Thai exports and incoming tourists, the increasing oil price, and the perennial threat of future flood and drought scenarios. (MCOT)
A statement by Moody’s released on April 16 stated the outlook for Thailand’s local and foreign government bond ratings is stable at “Baa1”according to moderate risk profiles despite series of crises. The ratings are based on moderate levels of economic and institutional strength, a high degree of government financial strength, and a low-to-moderate vulnerability to event risk. (The Nation)
The Cabinet has decided to postpone the 15,000 baht salary base raise for civil servants with a bachelor’s degree to January 2014 as well as adjust upwards the salaries of other types of employees. The bachelor’s degree civil servants’ salary base will be raised to 13,300 baht in January 2013 and to 15,000 in 2014. For those holding high vocational diplomas and vocational diplomas, the minimum salaries will be raised to 10,200 and 8,300, respectively, in 2013 and increased further to 11,500 and 9,400 in 2014. The budgets required for this policy implementation is 5 billion baht in the first year and 7 billion baht in the second year. (Thailand Business News)
The Board of Investment (BOI) revealed that in the first quarter this year, 470 investment projects have been submitted for BOI promotional privileges with a combined value of over 231 billion baht. The major types of business that are planning to expand investment this year are in chemicals, paper, and plastics, followed by public utilities and services. At the same time, the number of foreign investment applicants in quarter one has substantially increased comparing to the same period last year. The biggest number of foreign investors comes from Japan, Malaysia, the United States, the Netherlands, and Hong Kong, respectively. (The Thai Financial Post)
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is officially visiting China from April 17-19 under the invitation of Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to strengthen bilateral relations and upgrade strategic partnership and cooperation between Thailand and China. The main agenda is on the promotion of national development, particularly a high-speed train project, water management system development, renewable energy, human resources development, education and cultural cooperation as well as cooperation under the framework of the ASEAN and the Greater Mekong Sub-region. According to Commerce Minister Boonsong Teriyapirom, the premiers of Thailand and China are likely to announce a joint push for bilateral trade to reach 120 billion US dollars in five years. (Bangkok Post) (MCOT)
Last week, PTT Plc and Bangchak Plc had announced the reduction of all retail oil prices by 0.3 baht making the price of gasohol 91, gasohol 95, and benzene 91, to be at 38.68, 40.43, and 42.78 baht per liter, respectively. Diesel would be priced at 32.03 baht per liter while E20 and E85 would be sold at 37.68 and 23.98 baht. These new prices came into effect since Thursday, April 12, in Bangkok and its vicinities. Shortly afterward, on April 15, the two giant oil companies announced again to increase the price of benzene 91 by 1.07 baht per liter to be at 43.85 baht per liter while leaving other kinds of fuel prices will remain unchanged. (Bangkok Post)(The Thai Financial Post)
According to the Thai Home Constructions Association, demand and purchasing power for homes rose 15-20 percent in the homebuilding market in the North, Northeast, and South, while not much growth was shown in Bangkok during the first quarter this year. The factors contributing to growth in the provincial areas were economic vigor and demand from Bangkokians for a second home in other provinces as well as the expansion of homebuilding firms outside Bangkok. But the major problem for the industry is the shortage of labor, particularly in Bangkok as many workers went back to their hometowns during the flood. The association also forecasts continued momentum in the second quarter, with the full-year outlook depending on future flood situation. A survey by the Real Estate Information Center showed that Chon Buri had the highest property development outside of Bangkok, with 534 projects and 87,500 units worth 246.8 billion baht. (Bangkok Post)
Thailand’s first private wind turbine operator, Wind Energy Holding Co. (WEH), plans to invest 40 billion baht in seven wind turbine farms over the next four years. According to the Board chairman Noppon Suppipat, the company is now developing the first three projects in Nakhon Ratchasima and in Chaiyaphum. WEH also plans to list on the Stock Exchange of Thailand in 2014 and has set a long-term investment plan for wind farms to have a capacity of 2,000 megawatts by 2020. Half of the total capacity would come from Thailand capitalizing on the government’s commitment to support renewable energy development, one-fourth of the capacity would come from Southeast Asia and India, and the remaining one-fourth would be from South America and the United States. (Bangkok Post)
Security
Following an 8.6 magnitude earthquake that struck off the coast of Sumatra on April 11, Thailand’s National Disaster Warning Centre issued a tsunami warning and an evacuation order for the six western coastal provinces of Phuket, Krabi, Phangnga, Satun, Trang and Songkhla. For their safety, people along the Andaman coast were instructed to head for higher ground, away from the shore. The National Disaster Warning Center warned that waves of up to one meter were expected to hit Thailand’s Andaman coast by the evening. The resulting panic caused telephone signals to become disrupted in some of the affected areas. However, as night fell and no tsunami materialized, the tsunami warning was lifted. The highest recorded waves were 20cm at Si Island. (Bangkok Post)
Residents and tourists on Thailand’s western coast were sent into panic once more on April 16 by another 4.3 magnitude earthquake that struck in Phuket’s Thalang district. Tourists were seen fleeing beaches and shopping centers. Residents, clutching their possession, had already begun showing up at Phuket’s Provincial Hall expecting to be moved to evacuation center. But no evacuation order was issued, and calm gradually resettled over the town. In response to locals’ concerns, Phuket’s provincial governor, Tri Akaradecha, has announced plans for an evacuation drill on May 10. (The Nation)
Despite the heightened security during the Songkran festival, many were killed or injured on Thailand’s roads. With festivities in high gear and multitudes returning home or traveling for the holidays, key roads and transit arteries, such as the Mitraphap highway, were heavily congested and brimming with reckless revelers. The Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department reported that during the period between April 11-15, a total of 253 people were killed in traffic accidents and 2,751 others injured in 2,134 road accidents, representing an increase over last year’s totals. Surat Thani and Nakhon Si Thammarat in the South had the most deaths with 10, and Chiang Rai reported the most injuries at 106 people, as well as the most accidents. A representative for the Road Safety Centre, Probation Department, said drunk driving was the major cause, at 42 percent, followed by speeding, at 22 percent, while most accidents involved motorcycles, at 83 percent. Also, 52 percent of road casualties were people of working age. (Bangkok Post)(The Nation)
In a bit of good news, tourists flocked to Hat Yai during the Songkran holidays, defying expectations that the recent attack on the Lee Gardens Plaza Hotel would scare away holiday-goers. Increased security following the deadly incident two weeks ago is credited with improving tourist confidence. Media outlets reported that Hat Yai hotels were experiencing 80-90 percent occupancy rates during the Songkran festival. The president of the Tourism Business Federation of Songkhla province announced further plans to boost tourist confidence with roadshows in Malaysia and Singapore. (Bangkok Post)
Thailand’s South was hit by another spate of violence during the Songkran week, as authorities continue to look for suspects involved in the string of car bomb attacks two weeks ago. In Pattani, three were shot dead as they exited a mosque late Wednesday evening. In another incident over the weekend, a bus leaving Pattani headed towards Narathiwat was attacked by two gunmen wielding assault rifles on motorcycles. Two passengers, ages 14 and 70, were seriously injured in the attack. In two separate attacks in Yala’s Raman district, a woman was injured by a K75 grenade and a village defense volunteer was shot in the torso and right leg. Both were attacked by gunmen riding motorcycles. Preceding these attacks, 18 closed circuit cameras were burned Yala’s Raman district. Authorities reported that the cameras were wrapped in motorcycle tire tubes, doused with petrol, and lit on fire. Locals reported seeing groups of youth traveling on motorcycles between 2-3 AM burning the security cameras. On late Sunday, a man was shot while attempting to attack soldiers guarding a power plant in Pattani. The 29-year-old assailant was carrying a knife and refused to stop after soldiers fired into the air. The attacker was shot in the leg and rushed to a hospital, where he later died. In yet another incident that same evening, three elderly women, aged between 53 and 87, were shot while sitting outside a home in Patani’s Mayo district. Lastly, a stash of explosives and weapons were found buried on a rubber plantation in Yala’s Betong district. Initially, bomb dispersal experts were called in after locals reported two men acting suspiciously around the plantation. (Bangkok Post)
In a statement, National Security Council chief Wichean Potephosree reaffirmed that security authorities will never hold ceasefire talks with insurgents in the South. They also would not accept demands to amend the constitution separating the three provinces from Thailand or granting amnesty to violent offenders. Pol Gen Wichean said Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yubamrung planned to establish a rear operations centre on southern violence, or “Pentagon 2”, with the aim of solving intelligence information integration problems. (Bangkok Post)
The Mekong River Navy Peacekeeping Force seized 230 kilograms marijuana, stored in several compressed packs, along with 23 logs of protected wild rosewood. The rosewood was found in Nakhon Phanom’s That Phanom district and Mukdaharn’s Muang district. Authorities also found 978 methamphetamine pills in a house in Nakhon Phanom’s Baan Paeng district. No arrests were made, as the smugglers probably escaped ahead of time due to a tip off. (Bangkok Post)
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