Summary
Politics
The past month has seen major changes sweep across Thailand politically. Former Prime Minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, departed for France at the end of July with an understanding that she was to return in August to face prosecution of various charges. Weeks into the ongoing changes have also seen a wave of resignations from both legislators and public enterprise executives. After weeks of speculation and a strong indication that members of the military would be dominating the cabinet, it is now official. With the endorsement of His Majesty, The King, the line up for NLA endorsed Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha’s cabinet is now complete. In other local political news, the murder charges against former prime minister, Abhiset Vejjajiva, and former deputy premier, Suthep Thaugsuban, currently known as Phra Suthep, have been dismissed. International development projects with bordering states have also formed, making August an incredibly eventful month (Bangkok Post). Thailand is showing slow economic recovery as consumer confidence has gained recently. Confidence amongst buyers and investors has improved for several industries, as the new government began taking measures to improve each sector.
Economics
The National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) on has approved the Transport Ministry’s eight-year infrastructure development plan. These dual-track high-speed railway plans are seen as an alternative infrastructure development plan that was initially proposed by the former Yingluck Shinawatra government. The plans were approved at the end of July, 2014. Transport ministry’s permanent secretary Soithip Traisuth said the two new routes could also served as a transport link between Thailand and South China. The BOI has plans for 10 new projects to raise investment privileges and incentives. The BOI also has plans to establish offices in Myanmar, Indonesia, and Vietnam by the end of next year to improve Thai investment opportunities. Several ministries have set plans for economic policy and legislation reform, and will be proposed to the National Legislation Assembly for consideration. These reforms or amendments to policies were aimed to enhance Thailand competitiveness and prepare for the establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community in 2015.
Security
A man charged under the suspicion of murdering an 11 year old girl in Trang province has been released due to delays in filing the investigation report. First suspected case of Ebola was reported in Thailandbut dismissed after laboratory checks. Attacks in the Deep South of Thailand continue. The NCPO sees as a priority to continue the peace dialogue. Rates of attacks remain unchanged. The National Disaster Warning Centre warned of flash flood and mudslides in the eight southern provinces.
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Politics
(Source: Bangkok Post)
Yingluck’s Return
Former Prime Minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, flew to Paris at the end of July to attend her brother, self-exiled former prime minister, Thaksin’s, birthday festivities. As Yingluck left the country, the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) as well as military officials declared that they would continue to closely monitor Yingluck’s activities abroad. Yingluck’s case has been forwarded from the NCPO to the attorney general and is currently developing. She returned to Bangkok on August 10th (Bangkok Post).
Army chief as PM
Army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha has recently been appointed as the 29th Prime Minister of Thailand. He was the only candidate in a country, where some provinces are still under martial law. Thailand’s new national assembly is composed of a majority of military personnel. The NCPO has also appointed 200 people from the army and police force on to the National Legislative Assembly (NLA). Speculations have been made regarding the current government as to whether this period presents an opportunity for bureaucrats and the military to strengthen their role. It is expected that there will be a lot of reforms the next months. (Al Jazeera)
National Legislative Assembly (NLA): The New Cabinet
100 days after the ousted government of former Prime Minister Yingluck, the establishment of the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) and induction of Army Chief Prayuth Chan-ocha as prime minister has been finalized. Aiding this process were the resignations from various legislators and public enterprise executives in the NLA which have left plenty of room for the new cabinet to be ushered in and old members to be appointed in new positions. The resignations also led to a very large amount of applicants, ranging in the thousands of entries submitted. Among the multiple resignations was one from Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB). There was no official statement made regarding Mr. Arkhom’s decision to resign. On the other hand, resignation in other industries, including two high profile resignations from the Mass Communication Organization of Thailand (MCOT), indicated there would be some strategic maneuvering in the appointment of new cabinet members. As later events confirmed, the two former MCOT members have indeed been appointed as members of Chan-ocha’s cabinet. The results of new appointments resulted in the cabinet being composed of more than one third of military, including numerous generals. A poll was conducted with results indicating that much of the public is satisfied with the results of the cabinet appointments (Bangkok Post).
Drama in the Court: Abhiset, Suthep and Red Shirts
The murder and abuse charges against former prime minister, Abhiset Vejjajiva, and former deputy premier, Suthep Thaugsuban, which were filed to the Thai criminal court in Bangkok, and brought to public attention, by police, prosecutors, and the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) after a prolonged period of multiple court rulings stating that protestors were killed by bullets fired by soldiers. Former deputy premier Suthep was in charge of the Centre for Resolution of the Emergency Situation (CRES) and was the executive decision in authorizing security forces to disperse the protestors. Despite many eyewitness accounts and strong evidence, all of the charges were dismissed. Red-shirt kin have continued to appeal to the prime minister in hopes that the decision will be reversed (Bangkok Post), but even if there is a change, former deputy premier Suthep has now entered monkhood and considered to be under political asylum. The case continues to be under review by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC). In relation to the woes voiced by Red Shirts and their family members, Red Shirt activist Kritsuda Khunasen ’s claims of alleged torture and mistreatment during her military detention have been brought to the attention of various human rights organizations including that of Human Rights Watch, a prominent Western Advocacy group. Kristruda Khunasen was detained in a military camp from May 28 to June 24, 2014. NCPO has denied all charges (Bangkok Post, Asian Correspondent, Reuters).
Outside of Bangkok
In the central province of Nakhon Pathom, a warrant issued for Luang Pu Buddha Issara’s arrest is still active after attempts to have it revoked failed. Luang Pu Buddha Issara has been vocal about his disagreement in the choice of Chan-ocha as prime minister and stands accused of allegedly violating the Election Act of 2007 and also leading a rebellion. Across the border in Cambodia, Cambodia Defence Minister, Tea Banh, led by Prime Minister Hun Sen, stated their support of the NCPO and assured the Thai government that they would not harbour any activists. The Cambodian government has also denied any involvement in harbouring red shirt members. This statement follows on the heels of attempts to improve the current state of bilateral affairs between Thailand and Cambodia (Bangkok Post). Authorities recommend the annulment of the martial law in tourist areas and economically important provinces. In order to assess which regions, it will be army chiefs of different regions report the current situation to decide from case to case. The martial law was implemented on 20 May to prevent illegal drugs and the destruction of natural resources. (Bangkok Post)
Economics
(Source: The Nation)
Confidence across industries
Consumer confidence hit its highest level since August 2013, boosted mainly by the 2.4-trillion-baht infrastructure investment plan recently approved by the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) and the Fiscal Policy Office’s growth forecast of 5% next year,” said Thanavath Phonvichai, UTCC’s vice-president for research. The approaching third quarter of the year sees higher confidence also in the food industry. Food manufacturers expect improved business in the sector through rebounds from increased domestic consumption and international orders. Positive outlooks were forecasted for food sectors as domestic and international market demand on products such as shrimp, rice, frozen and processed poultry, and condiments have increased. Export industries, such rubber, automobile and parts, also see a rebound as China’s demand gradually increases. Additionally, industries have also begun investing in factories and warehouses as a means to spur new employment and boost people’s income. Despite improvement in demand, Federation of Thai Industries has raised concern. The high labour costs and the shortage of unskilled workers are some of the main reasons companies are relocating their production bases to neighbouring countries where production costs are lower. (Bangkok Post; The Nation)
Property markets for Bangkok have also rebounded from regained buyer and developer confidence. The increased buyer confidence have led property developers to pick up postponed plans for residential projects since the second half of the year, worth approximately 177.6 billion Baht. The National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) on Tuesday has approved the Transport Ministry’s eight-year infrastructure development plan. The plan is proposed with the aim to develop Thailand’s transportation infrastructure (at a cost of Bt2.4 trillion) and will turn Thailand into a key logistics hub in the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by the time the projects are completed in 2022. It was reported that State enterprises will be the key investors in the government’s 2.4 trillion baht infrastructure mega-projects between 2015 and 2022, according to the Public Debt Management Office. (Bangkok Post; The Nation)
The Tourism sector has expected recovery from recent government measures as well. The NCPO has taken measures to improve the image of many tourist destinations such as Pattaya, Phuket, Chiang Mai, and other popular beach destinations in the South of Thailand for the upcoming peak tourist season. Crack downs on mafia, improving safety and security measures, and lessening the prevalence of illegal taxis, tourist scams and illegitimate operators in these areas.In the recent visa fee waiver for Chinese and Taiwanese visitors, it is expected that more visitors will return to Thailand. In early 2014, tourism rates of Thailand have dropped drastically due to the political situation at the time. (Bangkok Post)
Despite plans to improve tourist destinations and enhance tourism rates, business in Pattaya is reported to decline this year, with the number of visitors likely to fall by 300,000, and income predicted to decline by 10 per cent. According to the Pattaya Business and Tourism Association, yesterday tourism business in the resort city had dropped by 20-25 per cent during the current quarter compared with same period last year. Hotels, such as those from the Central Plaza Hotel Plc., have seen a 35% net profit fall in the past six months since the political turmoil. The Tourism Department announced that revenue from tourism dropped by 8 percent. However the department expected tourism would register growth in October, with tourist arrivals returning to normal during the fourth quarter due to continuing tourism promotion measures by the government. (Bangkok Post; Thai PBS)
A tax rebate scheme has been recently proposed by the Tourism Council of Thailand to the NCPO to boost domestic tourism. The council proposed to allow Thai tourists to deduct 20,000 baht domestic tourism expenditures from their annual personal income tax payment, reasoning that this would promote Thai people to tour in the country rather than foreign countries. This proposal also applies to corporations that hold seminars and meetings in tourist spots, they could use hotel bills to deduct their corporate tax by twofold of their actual spending. (Bangkok Post; Thai PBS)
Reform to Economic Policies
The Board of Investment (BOI) has proposed 10 development projects, worth 50 billion baht, to be approved on September 9th, 2014 by the board of directors. The projects have been proposed by the BOI as a means to promote investment privileges and incentives, and raise value-added content on exports. The projects proposed involve information technologies, automobiles, electronic products, processes agricultural technologies, and bio-technology industry.The BOI is also promoting investment in tourism-related businesses and power generation to support the growing demand for electricity in line with future economic growth. According to the secretary general of BOI, Mr. Udom Wongwiwatchai, the BOI has plans to establish branch offices next year in Vietnam, Indonesia, and Myanmar to promote Thai investment in these countries. (The Nation; Thai PBS news)
Several economic related ministries have proposed their plans to revise economic reform legislation in preparation for the upcoming establishment of ASEAN Economic Community next year. The Finance ministry has proposed a tax-reform package, which includes reforming the inheritance tax, land and building tax, corporate tax, and aims to amend the Security and Exchange law. A secure transaction bill, and secure E-payment bill will also be proposed. The commerce ministry will propose amendments to the Copyright Act, the Trademark Act, the Competition Act, and the Export and Import Act, while draft bills related to life insurance and the financial industry are awaiting consideration. The Industry Ministry will propose amendments to facilitate foreign investment, as well as amendments to the Customs Act. It wants to amend obsolete laws in order to facilitate investment and simplify the process of obtaining factory operating licence.
Security
(Source: The Nation)
Crimes
On 12 May, an 11-years-old girl was found dead in Trang’s Muang district. It was Kedmat Ramna, or “Nong Pleng”, who disappeared three days before. The police caught murder suspects but due to inadequate evidence, had to release two of them. Investigators found the DNA of the neighbour Prathompong Muenban on her clothing and arrested him on 04 June. Traces of blood were found in his house. However, this evidence has been initially tampered so identification of the type of blood remains difficult. The drainage pipe, in which the body of the girl was found, was not known by many people. As Mr. Prathongpong is known to have gone fishing in there, it was speculated that he would know the area very well. Additionally, police have found that Mr. Prathongpong has had a history of sexual harassment. However, Mr. Prathompong has been released because the investigation report was submitted too late. He pleaded not guilty and did not cooperate with the police. The mother Panomwan Ramna, a 37 old nurse, gave a press release. The investigation report was submitted to the Trang Office of Public Prosecution only a week before the maximum of 84 days the law allowed Prathompong to be detained. (Bangkok Post)
Deep South
Rates of attacks in the Deep South remain unchanged especially with the end of Ramadan on 28July and the Buddhist holidays in July. There was an increase of incidents by IED’s (Improvised Explosive Device), car bombs, and gunshots. After the failure of the peace talks in October 2013, the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) started a new round of peace talks with the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN). It will be a two track process with an official process for international and public consumption, and a talk between Thai security forces and mid-ranking separatist leaders. Regardless of the peace talk course, General Prayuth has asserted that the Southern provinces will not be an autonomic or self-governed region like in Mindanao, Philippines. There is still a lot of space for speculations because the peace dialogue take place behind closed doors and create a sort of in-transparency to the public. (Bangkok Post)
Nature disasters
The National Disaster Warning Center warned that there is a high risk of flash flood and mudslides in the eight southern provinces of Chumporn, Surat Thani, Ranong, Phang-nga, Phuket, Krabi, Trang and Satun. Thailand has faced heavy rain in upper southern and eastern regions plus south-western monsoon. (Thai PBS) Ebola First suspected case of Ebola was reported in Thailand. The patient showed the same characteristics like other Ebola patients. The woman arrived in Thailand from Liberia. She was examined in the Chulalongkarn hospital and treated under international standards. After two independent blood tests (with two different test kits from China and Germany) the women is tested negative for Ebola. (Thai PBS)
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